Manufacturing Human Experience
“What we Make, Makes Us”
Dr. E. Griffor
Walter P. Chrysler Technical
Fellow
20 Novembre, 2010
Response to Change
"Like England's battles were won on the playing fields of Eton, America's
were won on the assembly lines of Detroit."
- Walter Reuther
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History of Manufacturing’s Role?
These responsiveness of our manufacturing industry has
historically helped increase the pace of economic growth and
helped create economic opportunity, e.g. Henry Ford and the
B24.
The fact that our economy is facing grave challenges today
only evidences insufficient understanding of and commitment
to the manufacturing industry.
•
•
•
NEW factors:
Shorter product lifecycle
Automation
SMART products (and more complex!)
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TO manufacture or NOT to manufacture is there a choice?
The Engine of the US Economy:
• Innovation (new approaches to past and
present problems)
• Manufacturing (to deploy technology)
Risks of choosing ONLY one of the two:
• (One man’s pain is another man’s …)Solutions
don’t address the right problem
• Reduction to 3rd World Status – having to
purchase others’ solutions (based on tipping
the balance of trade – no revenue for the
innovation)
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Who’s more adaptive? – the ‘Rust Belt’!
Historical schedule trends with complexity
240
Next-Gen
Platform
Design, Integration, and Testing (months)
220
Historical Cost Growth (not adjusted for inflation)
Aerospace Systems (1960–present) 8-12%/yr
Automobiles (1960–present)
200
Integrated Circuits (1970–present)
New IC
design flow
4%/yr
~0%/yr
180
160
MIL-STD-499A
140
Aerospace Vehicle
1990s
~5X Reduction in
Development Effort
120
New automotive
design flow
100
80
60
Automobile
1960s
Aerospace Vehicle
1960s
40
20
?
META Goal
Automobile
1990s
Integrated Circuit
Next Gen
Pentium
Integrated Circuit
1960s
0
1.E+03
1.E+04
Intel 8088
Intel 286
Intel 386
Xeon
Automobile
Next Gen
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
Complexity*
[Part Count + Source Lines of Code (SLOC)]
2
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE. DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED.
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Popular conceptions about manufacturing…
Manufacturing is NOT factories!
‘Conventional wisdom’ states that manufacturing is dead in the U.S.
and that we should abandon it for the greener pastures of innovation…
…this would be a deathblow to the U.S. economy. The truth is that
manufacturing has special growth-inducing properties that are poorly
understood – it is the avenue for deploying new technology and new
solutions to the problems we face…
Solution/innovation without deployment is ineffectual!
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Manufacturing and Growth
The FORMULA for Economic Growth:
• (Ability to Address Specific Needs) Enable specialization in the
production process
• (Efficient Delivery of New Technology) Develop and disseminate
technology throughout the economy.
Research in economics, stretching back through Alfred Marshall to
Adam Smith, and forward in this century to Allyn Young, Nicholas
Kaldor, shows that that manufacturing industries are the
economy’s most prolific generators and disseminators of
technology and that this function is a predominant influence on
overall output and productivity growth. In this regard,
manufacturing industries are properly described as engines of
economic growth.
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Systemics of Manufacturing in the Economy
Further evidence comes from official estimates of inter-industry inputoutput and employment relationships:
…both indicate that compared with nonmanufacturing industries,
manufacturing:
• involves more numerous and varied inputs of goods and services
• cultivates a greater variety of production skills
Simply put, manufacturing exercises the economy more broadly
than other kinds of production activity.
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“Imported from Detroit”
The new face of American manufacturing reflects a process of
relentless, technology-driven change in the:
• composition of production
• quantities and mix of skills required, and
• organization of U.S. manufacturing firms
These changes constitute the structure and substance of the growth
process itself.
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Change in the Composition of Output
Experience shows that growth manufacturing industries is
concentrated in a relatively limited group of industries that:
•gain output share quickly
•displacing predecessors
•creating new venues for enterprise and employment
The most dramatic of these changes reflect major advances in
product and process technology—e.g., in recent decades:
1. the emergence and explosive growth of the computer and
related industries
2. the substitution of plastics for steel in auto production
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Change in the Composition of Employment
Though manufacturing industries have supplied a relatively constant
share of GDP for half a century, the direct link between growth in
manufacturing output and the spread of economic opportunity in
America is now more tenuous:
• manufacturing accounts for a steadily declining share of total U.S.
employment
• compared with the 1960s, proportionately fewer manufacturing jobs
are concentrated in blue-collar categories
• erosion in the average wage of manufacturing workers relative to
service workers contradicts the common assumption that any
manufacturing job is, by definition, a good job.
Manufacturing employment declines are not direct consequences of
high productivity growth and innovation, but rather because of
changes in production technology.
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Change in Corporate Structure
1. At every stage of modern economic history, aggressive
companies have energized the growth process by organizing to
exploit production efficiencies inherent in new technology.
2. The organization that a century ago best exploited advances in
mechanical technology (e.g., steam power, direct reduction of
metals) was typically large, hierarchically organized, and capitalintense.
3. In recent decades, however, dramatic changes—especially the
intensification of global competition and epochal advances in
information technology—have begun to favor organizations that
are smaller, flatter, and more flexible than their predecessors.
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Evidence of the new era
On average:
• manufacturing establishments are smaller than they were ten years ago
• decline in the relative importance of white collar manufacturing employment
since 1990 suggests that they are also flatter—that companies are dismantling
management hierarchies originally built to process, verify, and distribute
information
• evidence suggests that the information revolution has spawned new systems
of networked production in which small specialized firms use shared
information to coordinate their activities, simulating the performance of much
larger integrated companies
Such networks have the potential to transform the character of business
competition from a contest of scale-driven broadly-focused bureaucracies to:
…a contest of highly specialized firms that create value by leveraging
world class skills into commanding positions in precisely defined
intermediate and final markets…
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Importance of a Strong Domestic
Manufacturing Base
Does the benefit of goods production to any nation’s economy is
diminished when the production happens off shore?
• Why promote a strong domestic manufacturing base?
Two compelling common-sense answers to this question:
• A strong domestic manufacturing base is essential to balanced trade –
the retention of intellectual value poses huge difficulty and current
crises bottom out in intangible value
• Manufacturing industries are geographically linked to high-value
added services.
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Where is the Innovation really?
Confusion on this question has led our institutions, public and private,
to advocate increased investment in “innovation” and decreased
investment in “manufacturing”.
A ‘ flat world’ does provide for the instantaneous, global proliferation of
information but not for its creation.
Also a large part of problems and obstacles to moving innovation into
the economy are those posed by the manufacturing process itself,
e.g., the innovation needed for the deployment of plastics in
automotive was NOT their invention but rather the new manufacturing
process needed accommodate them.
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The ‘Dinosaur Machine’ – Barriers to
Change
•
•
•
•
Innovation
Deploy new technology (manufacturing industry)
Provide standardized training/degrees
Protect jobs through certification
The net effect of non-adaptive approach to training is the need for
‘re-training’ – a clear euphemism for the lack of preparation for
change.
Solution: holistic view of the relationship between
government-education/industry as co-managers of the
innovation/technology lifecycle.
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MIT President’s recent comments…
“When you’re manufacturing anything, even if the work is done by robots and machines,
there’s an incredible value chain involved,” Susan Hockfield, the president of M.I.T.,
says. “Manufacturing is simply this huge engine of job creation.”
For batteries, that value chain would include scientists researching
improved materials to companies mining ores for metals; contractors
building machines for factory work; and designers, engineers and
machine operators doing the actual plant work. By some estimates,
manufacturing employs about 65 percent of America’s scientists and
engineers. Hockfield recently assembled a commission at M.I.T. to
investigate the state of American manufacturing and to offer a plan for
its future.
“It has been estimated that we need to create 17 to 20 million jobs in the coming decade
to recover from the current downturn and meet upcoming job needs, …It’s very hard to
imagine where those jobs are going to come from unless we seriously get busy
reinventing manufacturing.”
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Case Study: SMART Products
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Case Study: Structural Changes for SMART Products
Future Functional Model
Future Functional description
Released Software Management
Phase I
R&D
R&D
DOORS
PSI
SW Specs
Test
Results
Requirements and Test Management
SW Specs
Supplier
HW
R&D
Bug
Reports
SW
binary
Bench
contest
Bug
Reports
SW
binary HW info
ECUs
• SW binaries and lifecycle management
• SW deliveries management from suppliers.
• SW distribution management through the whole Entities of the
Company.
ECU
Structures
SW Info
HW info
CODEP
After Sales
Quality
VIN Traceability
Programming
Logical Flows
Requirements traceability shared with the suppliers;
Test results traceability
Bugs workflow management
Dependencies management between HW and SW versions,
requirements, test results , bugs and workbenches.
Structure Management
• ECU structures management (HW and SW components)
• Components usage defined by configuration rules
• Dependencies and compatibilities management between ECU
components.
• Alignment of structures with CODEP
VIN Traceability
Phase II&III
Manufacturing
•
•
•
•
ESLM Program
• Check and control between HW and SW versions used for each ECU
• HW and SW versionTraceability for all the VIN produced
• SW and HW versions update traceability in After Sales
ECU Programming
• ECU programming in Plant
• ECU Programming in After Sales
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