Richmond Metro Area
Economic Overview
Retail Merchants Association
Ann Battle Macheras
November 11, 2011
Overview
• Richmond Area Economic Trends
• Labor Market Indicators
• Industry Trends
• Housing Market Indicators
• Retail Sector Business Activity Index
Richmond MSA Nonfarm Payroll Employment
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
YoY%Chg
0.0
-1.0
U.S.
-2.0
Richmond
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
September 2011
US: 1.1%
RIC: -1.4%
-6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Richmond Payroll Employment by Industry
September 2011
Total
U.S.
Natural Resources& Construction
2.1
-1.5
Richmond MSA
Manufacturing
1.7
-3.3
Trade,Transportation & Utilities
Information
1.1
-1.3
1.3
-3.1
-1.6
-9.4
Financial Activities
-0.1
-7.9
3.3
3.1
Professional & BusinessServices
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
0.9
-3.4
Other Services
1.2
-0.3
-1.5
Government
-12.0
2.3
0.2
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Richmond MSA Unemployment Rate
11.0
10.0
U.S.
9.0
8.0
Percent
7.0
September 2011
US: 9.1%
VA: 6.5%
RIC: 7.2%
Virginia
Richmond
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Richmond Single Family Building Permits
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
YoY%Chg
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
Richmond MSA
-40.0
Virginia
-50.0
-60.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Richmond House Prices—CoreLogic
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Richmond MSA Total
Richmond MSA-No Distressed Sales
Virginia Total
Virginia-No Distressed Sales
Source: CoreLogic
Fifth District Survey of Service Activity
• Survey released monthly—since 1998
• Approximately 100 respondents per month
• Respond by indicating an ‘increase’,
‘decrease’, or ‘unchanged’.
• Index value is percentage reporting
increase minus the percentage reporting
decrease
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Fifth District Retail
Diffusion Index
3-month Average
40.0
1
0.9
30.0
0.8
20.0
0.7
10.0
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.4
-10.0
0.3
-20.0
Monthly Values
August: -32
September: -10
October: -8
-30.0
0.2
0.1
-40.0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Retail Revenues Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Fifth District Retail
Diffusion Index
3-month Average
40.0
1
0.9
30.0
0.8
20.0
0.7
10.0
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.4
-10.0
0.3
-20.0
Rev.
August:
-32
September: -10
October:
-8
-30.0
Emp.
-8
1
-9
0.2
0.1
-40.0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Retail Revenues Index
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Retail Employment Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Some Observations
• The economy continues to expand, but the pace is slower
than we would like
• Job growth has been very soft and unemployment
remains stubbornly high
• State and local government will serve as a drag on
employment growth
• Stress continues in the housing market with limited
recovery so far
• Relative to previous recessions, we might expect this
recovery to remain at a slow pace of growth
Questions?
… and thank you!
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author.
They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.