9
Problem Solving,
Decision Making,
and Creativity
The future doesn’t just
happen—it’s shaped by
decisions.
—Paul Tagliabue, former
Commissioner, NFL
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Identify the steps in the rational model of decision
making.
Discuss ways people make compromises in following the
decision-making model.
Describe guidelines for making decisions.
Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and
computer software can help in making decisions.
Discuss advantages and disadvantages of making
decisions in groups.
Describe guidelines for group decision making.
Describe guidelines for thinking creatively.
Discuss how supervisors can establish and maintain a
creative work climate.
Identify ways to overcome barriers to creativity.
9-2
The Process of Decision Making
• Much of a supervisor’s job is making decisions
that cover all of the functions of management.
• In many cases, supervisors make decisions without
giving any thought to the process of deciding.
• Even though making many decisions seems to be
automatic, supervisors can improve the way they
make them by understanding how the decisionmaking process works in theory and in practice.
9-3
The Rational Model
of Decision Making
9-4
Human Compromises
• Simplicity
• Bounded rationality
• Subjective rationality
• Rationalization
• Personal perspective
• Recency syndrome
• Stereotyping
9-5
Guidelines for Decision Making
• Consider the consequences
• Respond quickly in a crisis
• Inform the manager
• Be decisive yet flexible
• Avoid decision-making traps
9-6
Decision-Making Traps
9-7
Tools for Decision Making
• Probability theory
• A supervisor cannot be
100% sure of an outcome.
• To use this theory, a
supervisor needs to know or
be able to estimate the value
of each possible outcome
and the probability that this
outcome will occur.
Probability theory
A body of
techniques for
comparing the
consequences of
possible decisions in
a risk situation.
9-8
Example Probability Layout
Possible Outcomes Five Years of
Production
Press A
$5 million - $900,000 =
$4.1 million
$5 million - $800,000 =
Press B
$4.2 million
Expected Value of
Possibilities
Press A
Press B
$4.1 million x .10 =
$410,000
$4.2 million x .30 =
$1.3 million
Ten Years of
Production
$10 million - $900,000
= $9.1 million
$10 million - $800,000
= $9.2 million
$9.1 million x .90 =
$8.2 million
$9.2 million x .70 =
$6.4 million
9-9
Tools for DecisionMaking (continued)
• Decision trees
• In the real world, most
decisions involving
probability are very complex.
• A supervisor may find it
helpful to use a decision tree
for making decisions in risk
situations.
Decision tree
A graph that helps
decision makers
use probability
theory by showing
the expected
values of decisions
under varying
circumstances.
9-10
A Simple Decision Tree
9-11
Tools for DecisionMaking (continued)
• Computer software
• Decision-making software leads the user through
the steps of the formal decision-making process.
• Examples:
• Spreadsheet software
• Database management software
• Computer software does not make decisions for
supervisors, but helps them organize their thoughts
and gather information.
9-12
Group Decision Making
• Advantages
• Group members can contribute more ideas for alternatives
than an individual could think of alone.
• People who are involved in coming up with a solution are
more likely to support the implementation of that solution.
• Disadvantages
• An individual can usually settle on a decision faster than a
group.
• There is a cost to the organization when employees spend
their time in meetings instead of producing or selling.
• Groups sometimes fall victim to groupthink.
9-13
Symptoms of Groupthink
• An illusion of being invulnerable
• Defending the group’s position against any
objections
• A view that the group is clearly moral
• Stereotyped views of opponents
• Pressure against group members who disagree
• Self-censorship
• An illusion that everyone agrees
• Self-appointed “mindguards”
9-14
Using Group Decision Making
• Encouraging participation
• A main benefit of group decision making is the variety
of opinions and expertise available.
• Supervisors should:
• Avoid monopolizing the conversation.
• Focus on hearing participant’s opinions.
• Notice when participants are quiet and ask their opinion.
• React positively when people contribute ideas.
• Brainstorming
• Hearing other people’s ideas often stimulates the
thinking of group members.
9-15
The Brainstorming Process
9-16
Creativity
• Creative thinking can lead to
excellent solutions.
• When a problem seems unsolvable,
the supervisor needs creativity to
find a fresh approach.
• Thinking more creatively
Creativity
The ability to
bring about
something
imaginative or
new.
• A fundamental way to become more
creative is to be open to your own
ideas.
9-17
Five-Step Technique for
Generating Creative Ideas
1. Gather the raw materials by learning about
the problem and developing your general
knowledge.
2. Work over those materials in your mind.
3. Incubate; let your unconscious mind do the
work.
4. Identify an idea.
5. Shape and develop the idea to make it
practical.
9-18
Creativity-Enhancing Suggestions
• See beyond the obvious.
• Don’t take “No” for an answer.
• Persist despite failure.
• Make your own opportunities.
• Find new uses for people and things and new ways of
doing things.
• Stretch your creative skills.
• Read biographies of creative people.
• Start a file of “crazy” ideas.
• Have fun!
9-19
Establishing and Maintaining a
Creative Work Climate
• A supervisor should show that he or she values
creativity.
• When employees offer suggestions, a supervisor
should listen attentively and look for the positive
aspects of the suggestions.
• A supervisor should attempt to implement employees’
ideas and should give them credit.
• When ideas fail, a supervisor should acknowledge that
failure is a sign that people are trying.
• A supervisor should help employees see what can be
learned from the failure.
9-20
Overcoming Barriers to Creativity
• Accept that failures by employees will
occur.
• If an idea fails, a supervisor should
acknowledge the problem and not try to pass
blame on to someone else.
• Allow time for creative thinking.
• Avoid isolation.
9-21
Summary
• Supervisors can benefit from using the rational
model of decision making when they are making
complex, formal decisions or when the
consequences of a decision are great.
• People will make compromises when following
the decision-making model.
• A supervisor has a variety of ways to make
decisions more rationally.
• The probability theory, decision trees, and
computer software can help in making decisions.
9-22
Summary (continued)
• There are both advantages and disadvantages to making
group decisions.
• A supervisor is wise to involve employees in some but not
all decisions.
• A fundamental way to become more creative is to be open
to your own ideas.
• A supervisor can benefit from the entire work group’s
creativity by establishing a work climate that encourages
creative thinking.
• A supervisor can overcome most barriers to creativity by
accepting that failures will occur.
9-23