Report 71.0
- 1st Quarter Release Johannesburg
15 May 2013
General
International Developments:

ZenithOptimedia Global Ad expenditure report suggests a slow recovery over the
next few years. Growth, however, lags GDP recovery. Further, the recovery rate
will remain well below local rate increases.

2013 est +3.9%

2014 est + 5.6%.

63% of growth to come from developing
regions with Eurozone shrinking by 7%.

Digital investment to grow 20% over the
next few years and exceed print
advertising expenditure by 2015.
Local Developments
-
IBIS Media Inflation Watch.
-
-
Recent release in March lacked all performance data and hence MIW inflation could not
be released. All platforms, with the exception of print, relied on AC Nielsen data and all
had experienced changes in survey methodology.
TAMS Turmoil
-
The hotly anticipated independent audit report was presented last week to the SAARF
Board. A release was issued on Friday confirming that “the report identified real and
concerning shortcomings in the sampling, weighting and management of the TAMS
panel that have lead to low efficiencies.”…and volatility!
-
The full unedited audit report will be released this Friday into the industry …we can
expect both marketers, media agencies and television stations to publish views on this
matter. Without doubt, the volatility has damaged not only station credibility and
competitiveness, but client exposure and media agency financial stability.
-
Perhaps now, going forward, advertisers will pay closer attention to developments within
SAARF and decisions affecting the investment of their levy contribution.
Rule Amendments effective
1st January 2013:
• PDF Replica Edition’ replaces ‘Digital Edition’, to
accommodate non-replica digital editions.
PDF Replica Editions will continue to be reported
together with print.
‘Digital Editions’ will be reported separately.
• Any title refusing to allow a check audit to be
conducted, will have its membership terminated.
Membership Statistics:
31 December 2012
Admissions
520
4
-9
Consumer
217
1
-7
Business to Business
185
2
-1
Custom
101
1
-1
Free Magazines
17
-
-
337
11
-6
Daily
26
-
-
Weekly
15
-
-
Weekend
28
-
-
Local
57
-
-
Hybrid
6
-
-
342
26
15
28
57
6
Free Newspapers
205
11
-6
210
-
-
15
-15
Magazines
Newspapers
Advertising Brochures
Total ABC Members
6
863
Removals
31 March 2013
515
211
186
101
17
6
863
Sector size ranked by average
circulation– Quarter 1 2013:
POSITION
SECTOR
CIRCULATION
NUMBER OF
PUBLICATIONS
AVERAGE
12,483,317
101
123,597
1
Custom Magazines
2
Consumer Magazines
6,207,891
211
29,421
3
Free Newspapers
6,195,065
210
29,500
4
Weekend Newspapers
2,292,053
28
81,859
5
Daily Newspapers
1,541,095
26
59,273
6
B2B Magazines
1,220,461
186
6,562
7
Advertising Brochures
927,980
6
154,663
8
Weekly Newspapers
630,268
15
42,018
9
Local Newspapers
446,647
57
7,836
10
Free Magazines
378,049
17
22,238
11
Hybrid Newspapers
157,975
6
26,329
32,480,801
863
37,637
TOTAL
Overall Economic Perspective
Comment:
•
•
Retail Sales increased by 2.5% in the 3 months ended January 2013. The main
increase was in retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather.
Real GDP at market prices increased by 2.5% quarter on quarter. Manufacturing
reflected the largest increase.
Newspaper Performance Relative to Economic
Measures.
Comment:
Total newspapers increased by 17000 copies compared to the previous quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
•
•
Circulation has declined annually by 6.35 % since 2009, equivalent to
440, 000 copies.
However, Q1 only declined by 0.7% (9000 copies), compared to Q4 2012.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined by 7.5% annually (387, 000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined by 5.0% annually (67,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have increased by 3.2% annually (14,000 copies) over the
period.
4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
Inland circulation declined annually by 7.8% (355,000 copies) over
the period.
Coastal circulation declined annually by 3.6% (85,000 copies) over
the period. However, Q1 increased by 14,000 compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Daily Newspapers
Publication
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous Quarter
No Name
1 Daily Sun
296,489
375,185
-20.98%
322,324
-8.02%
106,484
124,641
-14.57%
102,244
2 Star, The
4.15%
18,775
21,406
-12.29%
17,576
3 Pretoria News
6.82%
92,213
104,696
-11.92%
96,598
4 Son (Daily)
-4.54%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Weekly Newspapers
Comment:
•
Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance decreasing
annually by 1.9% (47,000 copies) over the period.
•
Q1, however, declined by 5.4% compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Weekly Newspapers
Publication
Name
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year
No
Motorsport
1 World
6,143
4,282
43.46%
Previous Variance Quarter Previous
Quarter
8,841
-30.52%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Weekly Newspapers
Publication
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance Name
CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year
No
1 UmAfrika
2 Ilanga
Previous Variance Quarter Previous
Quarter
9,100
13,597
-33.07%
8,910
2.13%
117,115
144,268
-18.82%
118,584
-1.24%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Weekend Newspapers
Comment:
Circulation has declined annually by 3.7% (372,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 only declined by 0.6 % (13,000 copies) when compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language:
Weekend Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined annually by 5.6% (397,000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined by annually by 3.1% (70,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have grown annually by 15.6% (95,000 copies) over the period.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Weekend Newspapers
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
No
Isolezwe
80,792
69,695
1 ngoMgqibelo
15.92%
73,448
10.00%
2 Isolezwe ngeSonto
95,672
85,575
11.80%
87,175
9.75%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Weekend Newspapers
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous
Quarter
No
1 City Press
118,547
163,705
-27.58%
126,400
-6.21%
2 Ilanga Langesonto
61,918
83,174
-25.56%
64,344
-3.77%
3 Sunday Sun
169,412
210,846
-19.65%
184,417
-8.14%
4 Saturday Star, The
76,897
91,843
-16.27%
75,089
2.41%
5 Sunday World
126,120
150,518
-16.21%
130,656
-3.47%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Local Newspapers
Comment:
Local Newspapers have declined by 1.9% (39,000 copies) over the period.
Q1, however, increased by 10,000 copies when compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Local Newspapers
Publication Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous
Quarter
1 Tembisan
9,219
8,198
12.45%
9,176
0.47%
2 Stellalander
4,442
4,053
9.60%
3,982
11.55%
3 The Mail
16,834
15,570
8.12%
12,725
32.29%
4 Mid South Coast Mail
2,421
2,251
7.55%
2,321
4.31%
5 Klerksdorp Rekord
17,149
16,039
6.92%
15,622
9.77%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Local Newspapers
Publication Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous
Quarter
1 Umlozi
1,850
2,913
-36.49%
2,250
-17.78%
2 Capricorn Voice
5,186
7,587
-31.65%
4,834
7.28%
3 Limpopo Informant
2,311
3,357
-31.16%
2,422
-4.58%
4 Bosvelder
2,519
3,160
-20.28%
2,518
0.04%
5 Our Times
1,884
2,352
-19.90%
2,323
-18.90%
6 Vryheid Herald
2,964
3,671
-19.26%
2,954
0.34%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Hybrid Newspapers
Comment:
Circulation has increased annually by 2.9% (17,000 copies) over the period.
Q1, however, declined by 5,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Free Newspapers
Comment:
Distribution has increased annually by 6.1% (1,259,000 copies) over the period,
although only increasing by 1.0% in Q1, compared to Q4.
New Members / Removals
Free Newspapers
New Member
Title
Eden Express
Motherwell Sun
Msunduzi News
Pioneer Express
Pioneer Mirror
Pioneer North
The Northern Sun
The Walmer Sun
The Weekly - Free State
The Weekly - Northern Cape
The Western Sun
Removals
Title
Algoa Sun
Eastern Express: Chatsworth
Eastern Express: Durban Central
Eastern Express: Durban South
Eastern Express: Phoenix
Mini Ads
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Free Newspapers
Publication Name
No
Zululand Eyethu
(formerly Eshowe
1 Watch)
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous
Quarter
24,240
6,000
304.00%
24,240
0.00%
2 Maritzburg Echo
City Vision
3 (Langa/Gugulethu)
35,292
24,772
42.47%
35,018
0.78%
49,634
40,334
23.06%
49,634
0.00%
4 Corridor Gazette
5,800
4,790
21.09%
5,800
0.00%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Free Newspapers
Publication Name
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year
No
Previous Variance Quarter Previous
Quarter
1 Cosmos Gazette
14,950
24,950
-40.08%
19,950
-25.06%
2 Ilembe Eyethu
Theewaterkloof Gazette
(Formerly Kontreinuus
3 Gazette.)
19,947
29,968
-33.44%
19,485
2.37%
10,609
15,726
-32.54%
10,640
-0.29%
4 PE Express Indaba
39,770
54,770
-27.39%
39,770
0.00%
5 Durban North Fever
14,900
19,772
-24.64%
19,670
-24.25%
Magazine Performance Relative to Economic
Measures.
Comment:
Total magazines declined by 2.5% (511,000 copies) over the previous quarter.
Consumer magazines decreased by 3.9% (254,000 copies) over the previous
quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 0.8% (217,000 copies) over the period,
although performance over the past year has been particularly disappointing,
declining by 11.4% (797,000 copies).
New Members / Removals
Consumer Magazines
New Members
Title
Off Road & Adventure SA
Removals
Title
The Property Magazine (Johannesburg)
The Property Magazine (KZN)
The Property Magazine (Western Cape)
Resort Life Zimbali
Playboy
Sports Illustrated Swimwear
Cape Town Official Visitor's Guide
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Consumer Magazines
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
No
The Expatriate SA
4,211
2,222
1 (Annual)
89.51%
2 HQ Pony
9,909
5,255
88.56%
8,172
21.26%
3 Forbes Africa
21,471
13,908
54.38%
17,538
22.43%
4 Kuier
95,846
64,787
47.94%
94,926
0.97%
5 The Big Issue
15,074
10,651
41.53%
13,334
13.05%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Consumer Magazines
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter
Previous
Period
Quarter
No
Rolling Stone
No
7,155
15,889
1 Magazine
-54.97% Submission
2 The Red Bulletin
38,425
69,700
-44.87%
64,250
-40.19%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Home
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 5.7% (150,000 copies) over the period.
Q1, increased by 28,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby
Comment:
Circulation increased by 1.4% annually (25,000 copies) over the period.
However, Q1 declined by 7.1% (35,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Travel
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 1.5% (20,000 copies) over the period,
although reflecting a considerable decline of 44% in the last 2 quarters,
resulting from removals and no issues by certain annual titles.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General
Comment:
This category has fluctuated considerably.
Circulation declined by 2.0% annually (186,000 copies) over the period, although
leveling off in Q1 compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Business to Business Magazines
Comment:
Circulation has increased by 2% (94,000 copies) over the period.
.
New Members / Removals
Business to Business Magazines
New Members
Title
Modern Medicine Magazine
Poultry Focus Africa
Removals
Title
Quantum
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Business to Business Magazines
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
No
8,886
5,361
1 To Build (Annual)
65.75%
2 Veeplaas
African Mines
3 Handbook (Annual)
10,422
6,795
53.38%
1,725
1,226
40.70%
7,691
35.51%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Business to Business Magazines
Publication Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Previous
Quarter
Conference Venues
1 (Annual)
4,830
11,310
-57.29%
2 Sustain (Annual)
1,450
2,813
-48.45%
Pedmed (Six3 Monthly)
3,268
6,073
-46.19%
74
122
-39.34%
6,989
11,272
-38.00%
Agricultural
Machinery Dealer's
4 Guide (Six Monthly)
Business Traveller
5 Africa
8,425
-17.04%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering
and Tourism
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 11.5% (52,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 declined by 34% (28,000 copies) compared to Q4, as a result of a
suspended title
.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 1.7% (823,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 declined by 1.7% (217, 000 copies) compared to Q4.
New Members / Removals
Custom Magazines
New Member
Title
TGF Escapes
Removal
Title
South african Property Review
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Custom Magazines
No
TOTAL
CIRCULATION
Publication Name
Corresponding Variance Previous Period Prior Year
Previous
Quarter
Variance Previous
Quarter
58,049
12.52%
Foschini Balanced
1 Life
65,314
34,383
89.96%
2 Reality (Annual)
177,279
110,000
61.16%
Ackermans Club
(formerly A-Plus)
3 (Six-Monthly)
96,712
68,503
41.18%
Foschini Soccer
4 Club
76,465
58,166
31.46%
70,994
7.71%
Foschini Living
5 Space
67,854
53,048
27.91%
64,101
5.85%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Custom Magazines
Publication Name
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year
No
Supersport Diary
1 (Annual)
3,738
10,333
-63.82%
Geen & Richards
2 Club (Annual)
4,648
10,756
-56.79%
3 J S E (annual)
13,242
28,778
-53.99%
Furniture City Club
4 (Annual)
8,301
17,274
-51.95%
567
1,000
-43.30%
5 Blue Train, The
Previous Variance Quarter Previous
Quarter
700
-19.00%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines – Entertainment
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 3.8% (420,000 copies) over the period,
leveling off in Q1 compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines – Retail
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 0.6% (161,000 copies) over the period,
declining by 3.3% in Q1 compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Free Magazines
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 18.9%, over the period.
Q1 declined by 5.3% (23,000 copies) compared to Q4.
Observations:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
General:
As we approach mid-year , economists are already warning about
further shrinkage in our economy.
GDP forecasts for 2014 are now sub 3%
Highlights:
The various take-overs of publishing groups & restructuring have
without question impacted on circulation performance.
That said, the newspaper slide has slowed somewhat.
Inland Newspaper circulation, however, continues to decline
compared to coastal performance.
The language trend that we have tracked continues i.e. English titles
declining the most against vernacular growth.
The Weekend Newspaper category has stabilised although quarter
on quarter comparisons show a small decline.
Local Newspapers have returned to growth, while Free Newspaper
circulation continues upward, with strong growth coming from
several Kwazulu-Natal titles.
•
Within the Consumer Magazine category, we see disappointing
results down 11.4% over the past year, partly due to the removal of
9 titles & the admission of only 4 to the ABC.
•
The growth that exists is less widespread.
•
Notable performances include Forbes Africa (54% growth year-onyear) & Kuier (47% growth year-on-year).
•
The Women’s Interest category, always a key indicator, returned a
stable performance.
•
Custom titles reflected growth particularly the clothing store titles,
while several furniture titles declined.
•
In conclusion, the outlook for the balance of 2013 looks challenging,
and in particular for publishers that have not brought their finances
under control.
Thank you.
Your ABC
- Transparency you can see -