Discussion of “Bonded to the State: A Network Perspective on China’s Corporate Debt Market” Li Jin Guanghua School of Management Peking University June 2016 GCGC 2016 Conference in Stockholm Summary This paper used a network perspective to examine the major features of China’s corporate bond market. It finds that a key attribute of the market – state centricity – has indelibly shaped its developmental trajectory and operation, and channels its future evolutionary path. A network perspective on China’s corporate bond market helps frame an inquiry into the challenges of China’s transition toward a more market-oriented financial system. It is nicely done, comprehensive and rigorous. Key observations A well functioning financial market in China calls for the development of corporate bond market. While such market does exist in China, and seemed to have developed rapidly in size, a closer examination revealed troubling facts. Large quantity of activities on the market are actually LGFV related, and thus local government debt in disguise. Of the remaining “true” corporate bond market, the observation that it is the same “privileged” firms: largely SOEs and listed companies, that are receiving financing. Private sector SMEs still finds it very inaccessible. Comments Paper compares China with Japan and Korea, two other East Asian economies. The same pattern emerges: bond issues were effectively limited to the largest firms that are already enjoying close relations with major banks and, by extension, the financial regulators. These firms don’t lack other channels to finance. So what use! The very actors lacking access to other funding channels (particularly SMEs in the private sector) do not seem to benefit from the development of corporate bond market in its early development phase. Comments How is the “pecking order” in China different from that of a mature market such as the US? Typical sequence in a mature market: Internally generated Founders’ own capital (could be from family, relatives, etc) bank (private debt) public equity public debt (corporate bond) At various stages, private equity could be engaged (more on this later). Interestingly, public debt (corporate bond) comes pretty late in the game, even in mature markets such as the US. DISPITE the perceived info. disadvantage of equity. A number of listed firms don’t even have a bond rating. Comments Problems SMEs have huge growth potential. But also large CF volatility. Also, typically limited collateral. Other common issues: Disclosure, compliance, governance, etc. Investors of (good quality) corporate bonds don’t like these. In fact, many are not well equipped with monitoring and disciplining, unlike the private creditors such as a bank. Comments Tend to see corporate bonds in mature and stable firms. These are firms that probably already have access to other financing channels, perhaps including an exchange traded stock. But still, introduction of corporate bond financing can meaningfully lower the cost of capital, if it creates competition from suppliers of capital. Also, the listed firm share price provides a meaningful info transmission mechanism for the bond investor. So, corporate bond often comes after publicly traded shares, at least for “high quality” bonds. Comments What about “low quality bonds”? In the US, it came pretty late in the game. “speculative” nature limits its demand from “regular” bond investors. Mom and pop, widows and orphans. Limited scope, but potentially much higher expected risk and return. The tip of the debt “pyramid”. SMEs can potentially use it. But also other investors, notably PE use it for large financing request. Comments What about “low quality bonds”? In the US, it came pretty late in the game. “speculative” nature limits its demand from “regular” bond investors. Mom and pop, widows and orphans. Limited scope, but potentially much higher expected risk and return. The tip of the debt “pyramid”. SMEs can potentially use it. But also other investors, notably PE use it for large financing request. Comments Framework of paper very valuable in evaluating other potential funding channels. PE Converting debt to equity Asset securitization, particularly distressed related. Myriad of recipes, all need to satisfy the same rigorous scan as proposed by the paper. PE in the complete life cycle of a firm Own funds Seed - For initial concept for R&D of a product Angel Investors Early - For product development and initial marketing; the company may be in the process of being organized or may have been in business for a short time, but has not yet sold its product commercially Venture Capital Sales Growth Mezzanine Private Equity Late Stage IPO/MBO/MBI/LBO Turnaround Distressed situation Expansion Stage Early Stage/Start up Time Seed Stage VC PE Expansion - For growth and expansion of a company that has built up a short track record; used for increasing production capacity, market/product development and/or additional working capital Growth/Mezzanine - Financing to help a company go public/trade sale Late Stage - Financing in form of loan/equity to enable MBOs or MBIs of an existing product/business Turnaround - Financing to re-establish a business which has encountered some performance difficulties 11 11 Conclusion Extremely insightful and comprehensive. Not entirely agreeing with the conclusion regarding the (regular) corporate debt market as ample solution to the problem of SME financing. The framework proposed in the paper offers a valuable evaluating toolkit for any proposal for solving the funding difficulties of private sector SMEs in China and any other developing economies. A must-read for anyone interested in understanding financial market in China!
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