OECD Global Science Forum
Study on
Declining interest in science studies
Preliminary Report on the
Quantitative Analysis
Prof. Jean-Jacques Duby
Chairman, Steering Committee
Global Science Forum
Quantitative analysis: methodology
•
Data from 18 countries
Australia, Belgium (Flanders + Wallonia), Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Turkey, UK, USA
•
•
Data on four educational stages
–
Upper secondary graduation
–
Entrance into tertiary education
–
Tertiary education graduation
–
PhD
Data available between 1985 and 2003
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Quantitative analysis: methodology
•
Number of students at each stage
–
S&T, non S&T
–
Disciplines within S&T
Mathematics & Statistics, Physical Sciences, Life Science, Computing, Engineering
•
–
Males, Females
–
Nationals, non nationals
Problem of data consistency between countries
–
Study trends (e.g. annual changes) and ratios (e.g. M/F)
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Quantitative analysis
•
•
Performed by OECD Secretariat
–
Economic Analysis and Statistics Division, STI Directorate
–
Indicator and Analysis Division, Education Directorate
–
Global Science Forum Staff
Final results to be presented together with causes
and remedies
–
November 14-15 OECD GSF Conference in Amsterdam
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Quantitative analysis: preliminary report
•
Status report as of May-June 2005
•
Restricted to 1993-2003 period
–
Most recent
–
More exhaustive data (some country data omitted)
•
•
Considers S&T students
–
Tertiary education entrants, graduates, PhD
–
By discipline
–
By gender
–
National origin analyzed in final study
Upper secondary graduates analyzed in final study
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Tertiary Education S&T Entrants,
Graduates and PhD
•
Total number of S&T students generally increasing
•
Ratio of S&T graduates and PhD vs. total number
of students decreasing in a majority of countries
•
Important differences between countries
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Number of S&T students
1993-2003 average annual change(*)
S&T Graduates
S&T Entrants
S&T PhD
Turkey
Poland
Poland
Poland
Turkey
Korea
Australia
Portugal
Japan
Australia
Turkey
Korea
Portugal
Canada
Australia
USA
Denmark
Japan
Belgium-Fla
France
Finland
Finland
Belgium-Wal
Belgium-Fla
Norway
Germany
Finland
Korea
Denmark
Canada
Norway
Netherland
Portugal
Norway
Germany
Belgium-Wal
Denmark
Canada
Japan
Belgium-Wal
Netherland
Belgium-Fla
Germany
USA
France
Netherland
France
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
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-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
(*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient
Percentage of S&T students
1993-2003 average annual change(*)
% S&T Entrants
% S&T PhD
% S&T Graduates
Turkey
Canada
Korea
Australia
Finland
Turkey
Belgium-Wal
Australia
Japan
Canada
Korea
Finland
Finland
USA
Poland
Germany
Turkey
Germany
Poland
Japan
Belgium-Wal
Belgium-Fla
Portugal
Netherland
France
Denmark
Belgium-Wal
Canada
Belgium-Fla
USA
Norway
Portugal
Germany
Belgium-Fla
Netherland
Norway
Denmark
Australia
Poland
France
Denmark
Japan
Netherland
Korea
France
Portugal
Norway
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
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-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
(*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient
4%
S&T Entrants, Graduates, PhD by discipline
•
Generally increasing trends in Computer and
Engineering
•
Sharp decreases in Mathematics and Physical
Sciences
•
Life Science graduates and PhD increasing,
potential future decline indicated by new entrants
•
Finer breakdown to appear in final report
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Number of students per discipline
1993-2003 average annual change(*)
Computing & Engineeering
PhD
Graduates
Math + Phys + Chem
Life Science
Entrants
PhD
Graduates
PhD
Entrants
Turkey
Portugal
Turkey
Australia
Turkey
Portugal
Korea
Denmark
Finland
Portugal
Korea
Australia
Belgium-Fla
Finland
Germany
Finland
Australia
Denmark
Denmark
Belgium-Wal
Norway
Germany
Germany
USA
Norway
Norway
Belgium-Wal
Belgium-Wal
USA
Belgium-Fla
USA
Netherlands
Korea
Netherlands
Belgium-Fla
Netherlands
France
France
France
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-15%
-10%
Graduates
-5%
0%
Entrants
5%
10%
(*) Computed as Mean normalized regression coefficient
15%
The Gender issue
•
•
Female ratio far below 50%
–
Most countries between 20% and 35%
–
A few countries over 35% or under 20%
Positive trend for graduates and PhD
–
•
But with a 40% “glass ceiling” projection
Less significant trend for entrants
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Au
Be s tr
lg alia
i
Be um
-F
lg
la
iu
m
-W
Ca al
na
De da
nm
ar
k
Fi
nl
an
d
Fr
an
c
G
er e
m
an
y
Ja
pa
n
Ko
Ne
r
th e a
er
la
n
No d
rw
Po ay
rtu
ga
Tu l
rk
ey
US
A
Percentage of female S&T students
1993-2003 averages
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
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Entrants
Grad
PhD
S&T Entrants female percentage
1993-2003 annual change vs. average
3%
Japan
Denmark
Annual Change
2%
Korea
Germany
Canada
1%
Finland
Norway
Belgium-Wal
France
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Turkey
-1%
30%
35%
40%
Belgium-Fla
Portugal
Netherland
-2%
Average
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25%
Australia
S&T Graduates female percentage
1993-2003 annual change vs. average
7%
Japan
6%
5%
Annual Change
4%
Korea
Germany
3%
Finland
Turkey
USA
Canada
2%
Denmark
Norway
Belgium-Fla
1%
Netherland
Belgium-Wal
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Portugal
25%
30%
Australia
35%
-1%
France
-2%
-3%
Average
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40%
45%
S&T PhD female percentage
1993-2003 annual change vs. average
8%
7%
Korea
Japan
Canada
6%
Annual Change
5%
4%
Denmark
USA
Australia
3%
Germany
2%
Norway
Finland
Portugal
Belgium-Wal
1%
0%
0%
10%
Turkey
20%
-1%
-2%
Average
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France
30% Belgium-Fla
40%
50%
The Gender issue by discipline
•
Generally more Females than Males in Life Science
•
Female ratio dramatically low (20% and below) in
Computer and Engineering
•
Mathematics and Physical Sciences between 20%
and 50%
•
Important differences between trends for different
disciplines and countries
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Percentage of female students by discipline
1993-2003 averages
90%
80%
70%
Life Sc. Entrants
60%
Life Sc. Graduates
50%
Life Sc. PhD
Math, Phys, Chem Entrants
Math, Phys, Chem Graduates
40%
Math, Phys, Chem PhD
Comp. & Eng. Entrants
Comp. & Eng. Graduates
30%
Comp. & Eng. PhD
20%
10%
SA
U
Tu
rk
ey
ga
l
Po
rt
u
or
w
ay
N
nd
et
N
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he
rla
or
ea
K
an
y
er
m
G
Fr
an
ce
an
d
Fi
nl
m
ar
k
en
al
D
gi
u
m
-W
-F
la
m
B
el
B
el
A
gi
u
us
tr
al
ia
0%
Percentage of female S&T Entrants by discipline
1993-2003 annual change vs. average
8%
Fr
7%
6%
5%
US
4%
BFl
Dk
3%
BWa
Fi
2%
T
No
Fr
Dk
BWa
BFl NL
A
K
BWa
1%
A
0%
10%
US
Dk
K
0%
-1%
Life Sc.
Math, Phys, Chem
Comp. & Eng.
Gy
20%
A
BFl
Fi
Fr
NL
T
P
Fi
30%
Gy
NL
-2%
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Gy
40%
50%
K
60%
No No
P
70%
80%
Preliminary conclusions
• Decrease of percentage of S&T students
– Particularly at Graduate and PhD level
– Does not translate into decrease of absolute numbers (yet?)
• Countries differently affected
– Reasons to be analyzed in final study (demography,
education system, culture, economics…)
• Disciplines differently affected
– Major decrease in Math and Physics
– Overall increase in Computer and Engineering
• Female students in minority
– Except for Life Science
– Particularly for Computer and Engineering
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To be continued at…
OECD Global Science Forum
CONFERENCE ON DECLINING INTEREST
IN SCIENCE STUDIES
AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE
November 14-15, 2005
Amsterdam, Koepelkerk Convention Centre
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