PreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligence
TheCenterforDemocracy&TechnologyinresponsetoOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy
July22,2016
TheCenterforDemocracyandTechnology(“CDT”)isoptimisticaboutthefutureofartificial
intelligence(“AI”),andconfidentthetechnologywillhavewidespreadpositiveimpacts.However,the
rapidlydevelopingtechnologywillhavesignificanteffectsonjobs,education,andpolicy,aswellas
ethicalandregulatoryimplicationsforthefederalgovernment.Ittakestimeforprocessestochange,
standardstoemerge,andpeopletolearnnewskills.InthecaseofAI,thegovernmentmustactquickly
toprepareforthesechanges,asthetechnologywilldiffuserapidly.
CDTbelievesinthepoweroftechnology.A501(c)(3)nonprofitorganization,weworktopreservethe
user-controllednatureoftheinternetandchampionfreedomofexpression.Wesupportlaws,
corporatepolicies,andtechnologytoolsthatprotecttheprivacyoftechnologyusers,andadvocatefor
strongerlegalcontrolsongovernmentsurveillance.
TheninetopicsforwhichOSTPrequestedresponsesarethefollowing:(1)thelegalandgovernance
implicationsofAI;(2)theuseofAIforpublicgood;(3)thesafetyandcontrolissuesforAI;(4)thesocial
andeconomicimplicationsofAI;(5)themostpressing,fundamentalquestionsinAIresearch,common
tomostorallscientificfields;(6)themostimportantresearchgapsinAIthatmustbeaddressedto
advancethisfieldandbenefitthepublic;(7)thescientificandtechnicaltrainingthatwillbeneededto
takeadvantageofharnessingthepotentialofAItechnology;(8)thespecificstepsthatcouldbetaken
bythefederalgovernment,researchinstitutes,universities,andphilanthropiestoencouragemultidisciplinaryAIresearch;and(9)anyadditionalinformationrelatedtoAIresearchorpolicymaking,not
requestedabove,thatyoubelieveOSTPshouldconsider.
WewilladdressthreetopicsinthisRequestforInformation.OurprimaryfocusisonhowtheU.S.
governmentshouldensurethattechnologicaladvancesareusedtoreduceinequalityandpromote
progressforallsegmentsofsociety.
(2)THEPUBLICGOOD:
AIwillbedeployedtoservethepublicgood,encouragecivicduty,andcollaborateandsolvesomeof
theworld’smostpressing,complexproblems.However,historicbiasindecision-makingisnot
alleviatedbyautomatingtheprocessandreducinghumaninvolvement.Thereisariskthathumanbias
mightbebuiltintotheunderlyingarchitectureofthesesystems,fromrelativelysimpleanalyticsto
sophisticatedartificialintelligence.Creatingpositiveoutcomesforallrequireshumanstoconsiderthe
ethicalimplicationsofthetechnologytheyarecreatingandusing.Forthisvisiontobecomereality,the
governmentmustworkincollaborationwithcompaniesandcivilsocietytodeployAItechnology
mindfully,andbevigilantaboutpreventingdisparitiesandharm.
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Wemustguardagainstalgorithmicbias.Wehaveseenthatbigdataanalyticsriskeclipsing
longstandingcivilrightsprotectionsinhowpersonalinformationisusedinhousing,credit,
employment,health,education,andthemarketplace.Machinelearningalgorithmsaretrained
onlargedatasets,andwhenthosesetsarepartialorcontainimplicitbias,theresulting
algorithmscanmakeincorrectinferencesthatleadtobroaderalgorithmicbiasesand
discrimination.Withincreasinglyautomatedfunctions,thesebuilt-indiscrepanciescanmultiply
exponentially.Thereisagrowingpolicydebateabouthowtobuildaccountabilityintothis
system.Atremendousincentiveexistsforpolicymakersandcompaniestoinnovateandlead
thewayinfairautomation.Throughoutthisdiscourse,humansremainattheheartof
automation-building,testing,refining,auditing,andevaluatingthesesystems.Wemustboth
encouragethedevelopmentofbetterdiagnostictoolsandensurethatAIcreatorsareworking
withrobust,high-qualitydatasets.
Promoteadiverseworkforce.ThedevelopmentofeffectiveAImandatesdiversityonproject
teamsinordertofacilitateobjectiveassessmentandidentifyunconsciousbiases.Itisessential
thatthefieldattractskilledhumandataanalystswithdiversebackgrounds.AIincreasingly
intrudesonpeople’spersonalinformation,usingandmanipulatinghighlygranulardata.
Researchdemonstratesthattheautomatedjudgmentsbehindpersonalizationarenot
harmless,neitherineffectnorinperception;anditislargelylefttothedatacollectorsto
enforcemoralstandards.Automatedsortinganddeemingdata“irrelevant”canresultin
materialharm.Giventhediversityofhumaninsightandwisdom,muchconsiderationshouldbe
giventohowdataisidentifiedasimportantanduseful,assuchdecisionsarehighlysubjectto
personalperspective.Diversityofhumancontroloverdigitaldecisionswillleadtothe
applicationofmorenecessaryandrelevantdata,andthereforemoreeffectivemachine
learningsystems.
(4)SOCIALANDECONOMICIMPLICATIONS:
By2020,morethanathirdofthedesiredcoreskillsetsformostoccupationswillbecomposedofskills
notyetconsideredcriticaltotoday’sjobs.Remoteoperatorsmayneedtohelpself-drivingvehicles
manageemergencies,orride-alongUPSconciergesmayneedtomanhandlepackagesandknockon
doors.Humanswillstillneedtowritedialogueandtraincorporatechatbotandcustomer-service;AI
willhavetobeconstantlyupdatedandmaintained.NomatterhowadvancedAIbecomes,research
showsthathumanswilllikelyperformsomejobsbetter,particularlypositionsinvolvingcreativity,
empathy,orsocialinteraction.Thiscategoryincludesdoctors,therapists,hairdressers,andpersonal
trainers,aswellasscientists,technologists,andartistsabletocreate.Therearetwochallengesahead:
helpingexistingworkersacquirenewskillssothattheycanengageintheAIworkforce,andpreparing
futuregenerationsforanAI-integratedworkplace.
• Governmentactionmustbetimelyandresponsive.Theexperienceofthe19thcenturyshows
thattechnologicaltransitioncanhaveashort-termtraumaticimpactonspecificsegmentsof
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society.Intheindustrialrevolution,economicgrowthexplodedaftercenturiesofstagnant
livingstandards,butgovernmentstooknearlyacenturytorespondwithneweducationand
welfaresystems.Decadespassedbeforewagesincreasedacrosstheboard,andtherapidshift
ofgrowingpopulationsfromfarmstourbanfactoriescontributedtounrestacrossEurope.We
mustmovemorequicklytoaddressAI.
Fundcreative,just-in-timeeducationmodels.Havingasolidfoundationofbasicliteracy,
numeracy,andcivicskillswillbevitaltosuccessintheworkplace.Wemustalsomakeiteasier
forworkerstoacquirenewskillsandswitchjobsmoreeasilyandquicklythaninthepast.
o Incentivizelifelonglearning.Requiredjobskillsmaychangeasfrequentlyaseverythree
tofiveyears,andweneedtoinvestinongoingeducationopportunities.Forexample,
communitycollegeprogramsoftencombineeducationwithlearningonthejob.
Apprenticescangraduatewithadegreeinmechatronics—mergingelectronicsand
mechanicalengineering—whileworkingintheindustry,allwithoutincurringstudent
debt.Adifferentmodelincludesonlinelearningprogramsthatemployeescantapinto
anytimewhileonthejob.
o Promotesocialandcollaborationskillstraining.Socialskillsincludingpersuasion,
emotionalintelligence,andteachingotherswillbeinhighdemandacrossindustries.
Researchsuggestsemployerswillhighlyvalue“characterskills”suchasperseverance,
sociability,andcuriosity,whichcorrelatecloselywithemployees’abilitytoadapttonew
situations.
o Closethe“jobpolarization”gap.Whatdeterminesajob’svulnerabilitytoautomationis
notsomuchwhethertheworkunderconsiderationismanualorwhite-collar,but
whetherornotitisroutine.Theworkforcebifurcatesintotwogroupsdoingnon-routine
work:(1)highlypaid,skilledcareerists,suchasarchitectsandpsychiatrists,and(2)lowpaid,unskilledlaborers,suchascleanersandgardeners.AsJerryKaplanofStanford
said,automationis“blindtothecolorofyourcollar”.Asaresult,“jobpolarization”
occurs:middle-skilljobsdecline,likethoseinmanufacturing,butbothlow-skillandhighskilljobsexpand.
Getindividualsonline.WiththeincreasingpresenceofAI,itbecomesmorecriticaltoconnect
individualsinalldemographicsectorstoaffordable,consistent,andreliablehigh-speed
internet,andaccesstoonlineservicessuchasplatformsforfreeexpressionandaccessto
information.Increasingly,wewillconnectandcollaborateremotelywithfreelancersand
independentor“on-demand”professionalsthroughdigitaltalentplatforms.
Manageskillsdisruptionbytransitioningtheworkforce.Automationredefinesjobsinways
thatreducecostsandboostdemand.InananalysisoftheAmericanworkforcebetween1982
and2012,employmentgrewsignificantlyfasterinoccupationsthatmadeuseofcomputers,
likegraphicdesign.Whenautomationspeduponeaspectofajob,itenabledworkersto
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performotherpartsofthejobbetter.Theneteffectresultedinmorecomputer-intensivejobs,
whiledisplacinglesscomputer-intensivepositions.
o Incentivizepaidmid-careerinternships.Professionalmid-careerinternshipsprovide
employeestheopportunitytoestablishworkexperienceindifferentfieldsbyengaging
ininternshipsthatarepartwork,parttraining,andpartexposure.ThisallowsforshorttermarrangementsthathelptransitionthosewhohavelosttheirjobstoAI,while
mitigatingthelossesaffiliatedwithlong-termunemployment.
o Collaborationbetweentheprivateandpublicsectors.AIdemandsmulti-sector
partnershipsandcollaborationsthatleveragetheexpertiseofeachpartnerina
complementarymanner.Theseareindispensabletoimplementingscalablesolutionsto
jobsandskillschallenges.Thegovernmentshouldcallforbolderleadershipand
strategicactionwithincompaniesandacrossindustries,includingpartnershipsbetween
publicinstitutionsandtheeducationsector.
o ReinvigorateprogramslikeAmericorpsVistatofocusontechnology.Federally-funded
programsshouldincorporateatransitioningworkforce.Quantitativeandqualitative
accountabilitymeasureswillhelpensuretheseprogramsbenefitemployersaswellas
employees,targetspecificdemographics,bringneededtechnicalskillsintomorefields,
andenhancediversityintheworkplace.
o InvigorateandFundMakerSpaceCommunities.Inthespiritofthemakermovement
promotingado-it-yourselfmindsetandthePresident’sNationofMakersInitiative,a
transitioningworkforcecanengageincommunityoutreachprogramsthatinvolveadults
andchildrenlearningabouttechnologyandcreatingproductstogether.Individualscan
deepentheirtechnologyexperience,shapetheirenvironmentascreators,andbuild
newproductswithtechnologyintheirownmarketecosystem.Thegovernmentcan
furtherpromotehobbyists,enthusiasts,andstudentstotransforminnovation,culture,
andeducationintheAIspace.
Considersafetynetprotections.ConcernsaboutAIandautomationhaveledtocallsfora
strongersocialsafetynettoprotectpeoplefromlabor-marketdisruptionandhelpthemswitch
tonewjobs.Inadditiontothejobtrainingdiscussedelsewhere,thegovernmentshould
evaluateandconsiderwhattypeoffinancialassistancemaybeneededforthoseindividuals
andfamilieswhoaretransitioningbetweenjobsasaresultofAI.
Ethicsandcivicseducation.Oneofthemostdifficultandgrowingpolicydebatesishowto
buildaccountabilityintoAIsystemsthatseemtohavelivesoftheirown.Atremendous
incentiveexiststoinnovateandleadthewayinfairautomation,andsuccesscomesdownto
considerationofethicsbyhumansengagedintheprocess.Throughoutthisdebate,humans
remainattheheartofautomationthroughbuilding,testing,refining,auditing,andevaluating
thesesystems.
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(7)SCIENTIFICANDTECHNICALTRAINING:
InvestmentbyboththepublicandprivatesectorsinscientificandtechnicaltrainingtoprepareforAIis
critical.Trainingmustpromoteuser-orientedmethodsfromengineeringanddesigntoenact
multidisciplinaryprocessesandmethodologiesfordevelopingtechnologicallyfeasibleproducts.We
haveseenseveraluniversitieslaunchprojectswithsimilargoalswithoverwhelmingsuccess.The
human-centeredapproachtoinnovationtapsintotheabilitytorecognizepatternsandconstruct
functional,emotionallymeaningfulideas.Themethodviewsinnovationandcreativityasskillsthatcan
begained,andfocusesoninspiration,ideation,andimplementation.Usersareatthecenterofdesign
whilegenerating,developing,andtestingideas.Themethoddrawsonengineeringanddesign
principlestohelpcreateinsightsforthebusinessworld.ThisspecializationwillgrowasAImatures
becausethehumanelementiscriticaltoeverytechnologicalcreation,anddemandsgovernment
recognition.
(9)ADDITIONALCALLSTOACTION:
Increaseunderstandingofthistechnology.TermslikeAIareoftenusedwhenpeopleareactually
discussingmachinelearning,robotics,ordeeplearning.Artificialintelligencereferstotheengineering
disciplineofmakingmachinesintelligent.Machinelearning,incontrast,referstoaparticularsubfield
withinartificialintelligencethatfocusesondrawinginferencesfromalargesetofexamples.Jobsat
theintersectionofAI,robotics,anddeeplearningwillbedrasticallydifferentinjustafewyears’time,
leadingtothecreationofnewdisciplinestoexplore.
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