Rural Futures
Strategy
Global, National and Regional
influences toward the Why,
What, How and When
Why? - A rural futures strategy?
• 84% of the regional land area is rural zoned.
• Under 5% of our regions population is directly rural
aligned (not including peri-urban)
• Almost 7% of the employment is aligned to agriculture
directly.
• 22% of the business in the region are rural.
• Per annum the rural sector generates approx. $1B in
revenue
– Livestock - 35%
– Fruit and Veg – 27%
– Sugar /Other crops – 37%
– Grains and Cereals – 1%
Why have a rural futures strategy?
• Certainty in a changing world?
• Are current adaptive change actions
able to give the rural supply chain
certainty?
• Should we be considering
transformation change requirements?
• Opportunities and Challenges
“The world
as we have
created it is
a process of
our thinking.
It cannot be
changed
without
changing
our
thinking.”
(Albert
Einstein)
Why would a regional strategy consider
global and national issues?
• Consumption of food from our region
Livestock - 50% - 60% is exported globally.
Cropping – 80%-90% is exported globally.
Fruit and veg – 90%-95% is exported outside the region
Grains - 60% -80% is exported outside the region.
• Are we aware of global, national and state food
production considerations and values.
• Are we aware of the challenges and opportunities.
What? – changes to supply chain values
Sustainable Beef
Roundtable
What? – changes to supply chain values
The Unilever Sustainable Living Plan
The Plan will result in three significant outcomes:
1. help more than a billion people to improve
their health and well-being
2. halve the environmental footprint of our
products
3. allow us to source 100% of our agricultural raw
materials sustainably.
Underpinning these three broad goals are around
60 time-bound targets spanning our social,
economic and environmental performance across
the value chain – from the sourcing of raw
materials all the way through to the use of our
products in the home.
The great challenge of
the 21st century is to
provide good standards
of living for 7 billion
people without depleting
the earth’s resources or
running up massive
levels of public debt. To
achieve this, government
and business alike will
need to find new models
of growth which are in
both environmental and
economic balance. - Paul
Polman - CEO Unilever
What? - Food demand doubles by 2060s
UN: 12-16 billion?
Global
food
demand
What ? - A ‘wicked’ problem...
DEMAND:
242,000 more people every
day
More babies + longer lives
Population >9 bn
Food demand soars in
emerging economies
Total food demand to double
by 2060s
CONSTRAINTS:
‘Peak water’
‘Peak land’
‘Peak oil’
‘Peak P’
‘R&D drought’
‘Capital drought’
‘Climate variability’
What? - Food embodies water...
Total human water use:
7450 cubic kms
We each use 1240t/yr
In a lifetime, we use:
100,000 tonnes
What? - Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...
By 2030...
7.7 billion will live in cities
Total urban area = China
Urban water use 2800 cu kms
Cities cannot feed themselves
What? – The Knowledge drought
R&D
stagnation
What? - The Great Waste
Food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)
How? - might a regional strategy be framed
People
Profit
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Planet
Engagement - proactive and supportive
Scale - global in thought – regional in delivery
Baseline - current condition and trend
Identify – opportunities and challenges
Create – policies, programs and principles
Set - roles and responsibilities
Monitor - delivery of outputs (effectiveness and efficiency)
Evaluate - review outcomes and modify the strategy
How? - Transformational considerations
Reinvent farming & food systems:
sustainable, lower-input farming/ precision
farming.
Reinvent the global diet:
kills fewer people, damages less planet
Reinvent cities: to recycle water,
nutrients, energy back into food
How? - Transformational considerations
Double food R&D
Invest to share the food knowledge among farmers,
cooks, consumers
Invest toward innovation in new farm & grazing
systems
End waste: recycle all organic waste and water into
new food & resource industries
Educate people to respect and value food.
Did you know globally we invest $80bn p.a in food R & D and $1.6 Tr toward weapons R &
D.
When? – to start a rural futures strategy
“DALLAS, TX., Feb. 22, 2012 – Today, leaders of the Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef announced the formation
of an independent, non-profit organization…. The founding members of the Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef
include: AllFlex, Allianca de Terra, Cargill, Elanco, Grupo de Trabalho da Pecuaria Sustentavel (GTPS), JBS,
McDonald’s, Merck Animal Health, National Wildlife Federation, Rainforest Alliance, Roundtable for Sustainable Beef
Australia, Solidaridad, The Nature Conservancy, Walmart and World Wildlife Fund.”