Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
Vol. 14, Issue 2, 2014
PRINT ISSN 2284-7995, E-ISSN 2285-3952
RESEARCH ON PROFIT VARIATION DEPENDING ON MARKETED
MILK AND PRODUCTION COST IN DAIRY FARMING
Agatha POPESCU
University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Bucharest, 59 Marasti, District 1,
Zip code 011464, Bucharest, Romania, Phone: +40 213182564/232, Fax:+40213182888,
Email:[email protected]
Corresponding author: [email protected]
Abstract
The paper aimed to analyze the effect of marketed milk production and milk production cost on profit in dairy
farming in Romania. In this purpose, the data from 10 dairy farms situated in the Southern Romania were collected
in the period 2011-2013. The average marketed milk per cow accounted for 5,507 kg with a variation coefficient of
10.90 %. The average milk production cost registered Lei 1.07/kg milk, while the average milk price was Lei
1.23/kg. The average profit coming from marketed milk accounted for Lei 984.89 per cow and yaer with a variation
between Lei 2,375/cow/year, the highest level and Lei 314.4/cow/year, the lowest level. The variation coefficient,
69.90 % reflected a large variation from a farm to another. Based on the equation of the regression plan, Z = 1.187
x +11.46 y - 4,262 which assured the minimum residual variance, three variants of simulation were set up. A
constant milk production cost, Y= Lei 1.07/kg, and a 100 kg growth of marketed milk could determine Lei 18.7
additonal profit per cow and year. For a constant marketed milk of 5,507 kg, and an increased milk production cost
by Lei 0.02/kg has no influence on profit level. When marketed milk increases by 100 kg and milk production cost by
Lei 0.02 per kg, farmers' profit could increase by Lei 118.9/cow and year. Marketed milk and milk price have a
positive impact on profit, while production cost has a negative impact.
Key words: income from marketed milk, labor cost, material cost, milk cost, profitability, return
INTRODUCTION
Economic efficiency in dairy farming is in
close relationship with farm size. Small sized
farms are not so efficient because they are not
able to replace their capital, while larger farms
are able to reduce production cost and assure
a higher profit [6].
Profit is directly influenced by marketed milk
and milk price and, indirectly by milk
production cost, according to the formula:
Pr=Qm(p-c), where, Pr= profit, Qm=marketed
milk, p = milk price and c= milk production
cost [9].
Marketed milk depends on milk yield per cow
and year, the number of dairy cows, total milk
production, calves consumption [10].
Milk yield per cow depends on: (a) genetic
factors: breed, individuality, cow age, body
shape and development, constitution, udder
size and shape, temperament, milk production
potential, breeding program, the use of frozen
semen from high breeding value bulls, and (b)
environmental factors such as: feeding,
watering, movement, milking, daily program,
lactation length, calving interval, age at the
1st calving, cow health, comfort factors:
temperature, air humidity, wind currents,
weather status, hygiene etc [7].
Milk production cost varies according to the
geographical position of the dairy farm,
feeding conditions, heifer for replacing the
culled cow, artificial insemination service,
frozen semen from high value bulls,
veterinary services, medicines, depreciation of
fixed assets ( sheds, equipment etc),
electricity, water, fuel and lubricants, land
rental, repairs of equipment [14,15]
The three highest cost in a dairy farm are feed
costs, replacement costs and labor cost. All
these cost items should be kept under control
in order to get a higher profit in dairy farming
[13]
A study regarding production cost estimates
in Romania mentioned that in a farm of 200
dairy cows, for instance, only the annual
milking, milk filtering and cooling cost
accounted for Euro 210.57/cow/year for 9,150
kg average yield per cow [1].
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Another study in a smaller farm of 50 dairy
cows producing 500 kg milk/day and
spending Lei 190.5 per day for feeding,
electricity, water etc and selling milk at Lei
0.95/kg, mentioned that the farmer could get
Lei 475 income/day and a profit of Lei 284.5
per farm. This means that the milk yield was
10 kg/cow, milk production cost was Lei
0.381/kg
and
cost per cow and day
accounted for Lei 1.45 per head. This means
Lei 5.69 profit/cow/day and Lei 0.56 profit
per kg milk [16]
In Romania milk production cost are lower
than in other EU countries such as Hungary,
Poland and Slovakia [11].
In Romania, an increase by 1,000 kg milk per
cow and year from 5,000 to 6,000 kg average
milk production could bring an additional
variable cost of Lei 767. Therefore, the higher
the milk yield, the higher variable cost [8].
Milk price is directly linked to milk quality
which has to fulfill the market standards
regarding acidity, density, fat percentage,
protein percentage, number of somatic cells,
number of pathogenic germs. Milk quality
depends on cow feeding and season. [17].
Milk price has also a direct influence on
profit, because it is important to be higher
than milk cost in order to assure a positive
financial result. In Romania, milk which
meets the quality standards from a
microbiological point of view, with 3.2 % fat
and 3.7 % protein content was sold at Euro
0.30-0.33 per kg in average in the year 2011
compared to milk price in other EU countries
where farmers received Euro 0.33-0.34 per kg
milk. Therefore, Romanian farmers received a
quite similar milk price at farm gate [12].
Therefore, profit is directly proportional with
marketed milk and milk price and inversely
proportional with milk production cost.
To increase profit, farmers should grow the
amount of milk delivered in the market,
improve milk quality and keep under control
milk production cost.
In this context, the purpose of this paper was
to analyze the relationships between marketed
milk, milk production cost and financial result
in term of profit using the simple and multiple
correlations and regression function, as well
224
as the effect of each factor on profit in dairy
farming in Romania.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In order to carry out this research work, the
data were collected from 10 dairy farms
situated in the Southern Romania. The data
regarding the economic indicators: marketed
milk, milk production cost and milk price
were picked up for the period 2011-2013 from
each farm book-keeping.
The average and variation coefficient were
calculated for each indicator accoridng to the
formulas:
X  X 2  ... X n
Average, A  1
,
(1)
n
where n = number of years and X= economic
indicator (marketed milk, milk production
cost, milk price)
Standard
Deviation,
S,
S=

 n
 
( X i  X ) 2 


 i 1
(2)


n

1






S
Variation Coefficient, V% V% 
x 100
X
(3)
The coefficients of simple linear correlation
were estimated using the formula:
rxy = Sxy /Sx . Sy, calculating the Student
variables in order to test the significance of
differences as follows:
txy= (rxy/ 1  rxy2 ) . n  2 and the estimated
values were compared with the corresponding
quantiles for t2.5 %, t0.5% and t0.05% with n-2
degrees of liberty.
The coefficient of the total multiple liner
correlation was determined using the formula:
rz.xy= ( rxy2  ryz2  2rxy .rxz .ryz ) /(1  rxy2 )
and the partial coefficients of multiple linear
correlation were calculated using the formula:
rzx.y=( rxz - ryz . rxy )/ (1  ryz2 )(1  rxy2 )
The test of significance was carried out by
calculating the Fisher variables which were
Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
Vol. 14, Issue 2, 2014
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compared with the quantiles for F5%, F1%, and
F0.1%, according to the formula:
Fx= [r2z.xy /(1- r2z.xy)]x (n-3).
Because the linear regression function
between a factor Z and other two factors X
and Y is the regression plan having the
formula: Z= ax + by +c, the parameters a, b,
and c were calculated so that the residual
variance to have a minimum value ( the least
square method), according to the formula:
S2s.xy=(Z1 - ax1 - by1 - c)+...+(Zn - axn - byn c)2/(n-1)= minimum.
It results that the partial derivates of S2s.xy in
relation to the parameters a, b, and c should be
zero. Therefore, it is created the system of
normal equations given below:
a  x2i +b  xiyi +c  xi =  xizi
a  xiyi + b  y2i +c  yi=  yizi
a  xi +b  yi +nc =  ni
This system of normal equations whose
unknowns are a, b and c has the following
solutions:
a= rzx.y . Sz.y/ Sx.y ; b= rz.xy . Sz.x/ Sy.x and
c= - a - b
The formula presented below was used for
the confidence strip of the regression plan:
Sα/2 =
(n  1)(1  rz2.xy ) / n(n  3) .S z .tα/2
The contribution of the factors x, y to the
variation of z were calculated using the
formulas:
A(X,Y)= r2zx.y ; A(X.Y)= r2zx.y (1-r2zy)
A(y.x)= r2zy.x ; A(XY)= r2zx + r2zy -r2z.xy
and the contribution of the error:
A(E)= 1-A(X,Y)
Based on Z function of profit, three simulations
were made considered, one by one, (a)marketed
milk as a variable factor and milk production
cost as a constant factor, (b) marketed milk as
constant factor and milk production cost as a
variable factor and (c) both marketed milk and
milk production as variable factors. In this way,
there were presented the impact of the variation
of these two factors on profit coming from
marketed milk.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
The average and the variation coefficients
for the studied economic indicators are
presented in Table 1.
The average marketed milk per cow in the
studied farms accounted for 5,507 kg with a
variation coefficient of 10.90 %. Marketed
milk varied between 6.250 kg per cow and
year, the maximum level and 4,285
kg/cow/year, the minimum level.
The average milk production cost registered
Lei 1.07/kg milk, but its value varied between
Lei 1.19/kg milk, the highest milk cost and
Lei 0.98/kg, the lowest level. The variation
coefficient for this indicator was 7.85 %. The
cost items with the highest share in the milk
production cost were: feeding cost, energy
cost, fuel cost, medicines and veterinary
services. Feeding cost was on the top position
taking into account as a cow consumed about
40 kg forage per day and forage price is
enough expensive ( hay price=Lei 0.7/kg,
maize price = Lei 0.7/kg etc).
The average milk price registered Lei 1.23/kg
and varied between Lei 1.4/kg, the highest
level and Lei 1.1/kg, the lowest level. Its
variation coefficinet accounted for 7.64 %.
The average profit coming from marketed
milk/cow/year recorded Lei 984.89 with a
variation between Lei 2,375/cow/year, the
highest level and Lei 314.4/cow/year, the
lowest level. The variation coefficient was
69.90 % reflecting a large variation from a
farm to another. The main factor determining
this variation was the amount of marketed
milk, but also, production cost and milk price
at farm gate.
Table 1. Averages and the variation coefficients for the
economic indicators
Indicator
MU
V%
S
Marketed Kg/cow/year
milk
Milk
Lei/kg
production
cost
Milk price
Lei/kg
Profit
Lei/cow/year
Source: Own calculations
5,507
600.59
10.90
1.07
0.084
7.85
1.23
984.89
0.094
688.504
7.64
69.90
Coefficients of simple linear correlation are
presented in Table 2. Between the amount of
marketed milk and milk production cost it was
found a negative and low correlation, r = 0.023. Therefore, these two indicators are not
correlated between them, and the estimated
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Student value was -0.064 < 2.31, the quantile
for t2.5%.
Also between milk production cost and profit
from marketd milk, the correlation coefficient
was a negative one (r = - 0.376), reflecting
that between these two economic indicators
there is not a linear correlation. The Student
estimated value was -1.145 < 2.31, the
quantile for t2.5%.
Between marketed milk and profit from milk
sold to processors it was found a strong and
position correlation, r = 0.918, highly
significant. Therefore, these two economic
indicators are strongly correlated, as atested
by the estimated Student value 6.537 >0.505,
the quantile for t0.05%.
Table 2. Coefficients of simple linear correlation
between the economic indicators
Indicator
Milk production
Profit from
cost
marketed milk
Marketed milk
-0.023
0.918***
Milk production
-0.376
cost
Source: Own calculations
Coefficients of multiple linear correlation
are presented in Table 3.
Table 3. Coefficients of multiple linear correlation
between the economic indicators
Correlation type
Coefficient
of correlation
Total coefficient of multiple linear
0.984 ***
correlation between profit from
marketed milk/cow/year and the pair
of indicators: marketed milk/cow/year
x milk production cost
0.981***
Partial coefficient of multiple linear
correlation between the pair of
indicators: profit from marketed
milk/cow/year x milk prodfuction cost,
considered constant
-0.895
Partial coefficient of multiple linear
correlation between the pair of
indicators: profit from marketed
milk/cow/year x milk prodfuction cost,
when marketed milk was considered
constant
Source: Own calculations
It was found a strong and substantially
significant correlation, F =30.50 > 21.69 for
F0.1%, between profit coming from marketed
milk/cow/year and the pair of economic
indicators: marketed milk and milk production
226
cost, as well as between profit from marketed
milk and marketed milk/cow/year, when milk
production cost was considered constant.
When marketed milk was constant, the partial
multiple correlation between profit from
marketed milk/cow/year and milk production
cost was very low, not significant and of a
negative value.
The equation of the regression plan which
assured the minimum residual variance was:
Z = 1.187 x +11.46 y - 4,262 having the
confidence interval ɗα/2 = 309.40.
The contributions of the variation of the
factors marketed milk and milk production
cost to the variation of profit from marketed
milk/cow/year are given in Table 4. The main
factor with a deep influence on profit from
marketed milk is the amount of milk sold to
processors, because its contribution to the
variation of this indicator of economic
efficiency was AX = 82.6 %, under a constant
milk production cost.
Table 4. The contributions of the variation of marketed
milk and milk production cost to the profit variation
Contribution factor
Contribution
%
The total contribution of the pair of
96.8
economic
indicators:
marketed
milk/cow/year and milk production
cost
The partial contribution
of the
82.6
variation of marketed milk, when milk
production cost was considered
constant
12.6
The partial contribution of the
variation of milk production cost,
while marketed milk was considered
constant
1.6
The
partial
contribution
ofthe
variation of the interraction between
marketed milk/cow/year and milk
production cost
The contribution of the error variation
3.2
Source: Own calculations
When marketed milk was considered a fixed
factor, milk production cost had a negative
influence, but a weak one on profit from
marketed milk per cow.
Simulation of the variation of the profit
from marketed milk
Taking into account these aspects, it was
established by simulation the profit variation
depending on marketed milk and milk
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production cost, considered one by one,
firstly, as variable indicators and then,
secondly, as fixed indicators ( Table 5).
(a)Considering marketed milk production, X,
a variable factor and milk production cost, Y,
a constant factor and equal to Lei 1.07/kg
milk, the average milk production cost
registered by the 10 dairy farms involved in
this study, one can notice that a growth of
marketed milk by 100 kg could determine an
increased profit from milk by Lei 18.7 per
cow and year in average from a marketed milk
production level to another.
Table 5.Profit variation (Z) depending on marketed
milk (X), considered a variable indicator and milk
production cost (Y), considered a constant factor
Z=Profit
Z=Profit
X-Marketed
X-Marketed
from
from
milk, a
milk, a
marketed
marketed
variable
variable
milk
milk
indicator
indicator
Y-Milk
Y-Milk
production
production
cost, a
cost, a
constant
constant
factor= Lei
factor = Lei
1.07/kg
1.07/kg
4,000
498.26
5,600
2,397.46
4,100
616.96
5,700
2,516.16
4,200
736.66
5,800
2,634.86
4,300
854.36
5,900
2,753.56
4,400
973.06
6,000
2,872.26
4,500
1,091.76
6,100
2,990.96
4,600
1,210.46
6,200
3,109.66
4,700
1,329.16
6,300
3,228.36
4,800
1,447.86
6,400
3,347.06
4,900
1,566.56
6,500
3,465.76
5,000
1,685.26
6,600
3,584.46
5,100
1,803.96
6,700
3,703.16
5,200
1,922.66
6,800
3,821.86
5,300
2,041.36
6,900
3,940.56
5,400
2,160.06
7,000
4,059.26
5,500
2,278.76
Source: Own calculations
The difference between a farm where a cow
gives 7,000 kg marketed milk and a farm
where a cow produces 4,000 kg marketed
milk, in terms of profit from marketed milk is
Lei +3,561 per cow and year. The difference
in terms of profit, between the farm where a
cow produces 7,000 kg marketed milk and a
farm where a cow achieves 5,000 kg marketed
milk
is Lei +2,374/cow/year. And the
additonal profit coming from milk sold to
processors got by a farm where a cow
produced 7,000 kg marketed milk compared
to a farm where a cow produced 6,000 kg
marketed milk is Lei +1,187 per cow and
year.
Therefore, for an additional amount of 1,000
kg milk marketed to processors, a farmer
could get Lei 1,187 additional profit per cow
and year.
(b)Considering marketed milk, X, a constant
factor and equal to 5,507 kg, the average
marketed milk registered by the 10 dairy
farms considered in this study and milk
production cost, Y, a variable factor, one can
notice that
a growth by Lei 0.02/ kg
production cost can not affect profit level,
than in a very low measure, Lei 0.229/cow
and year, practically by 0.01 %, which means
nothing ( (Table 6).
Table 6.Profit variation (Z) depending on marketed
milk (X), considered a constant factor and milk
production cost (Y), considered a variable factor
X-Marketed
Z=Profit
X-Marketed
Z=Profit
milk, a
from
milk, a
from
variable
marketed
variable
marketed
indicator
milk
indicator
milk
Y-Milk
Y-Milk
production
prodcution
cost, a
cost, a
constant
constant
factor
factor=5,507
=5,507
kg/cow/year
kg/cow/year
1
2,286.266
1.22
2,288.790
1.02
2,286.498
1.24
2,289.019
1.04
2,286.727
1.26
2,289.248
1.06
2,286.956
1.28
2,289.477
1.08
2,287.185
1.30
2,289.707
1.10
2,287.415
1.32
2,289.936
1.12
2,287.644
1.34
2,290.165
1.14
2,287.873
1.36
2,290.394
1.16
2,288.102
1.38
2,290.623
1.18
2,288.331
1.40
2,290.852
1.20
2,288.561
Source: Own calculations
(c)Considering marketed milk, X, a variable
factor and milk production cost also a
variable factor, one can notice that profit
could grow by Lei 118.9/cow and year for
each 100 kg increase of marketed milk and
every additional Lei 0.02 for milk production
cost (Table 7).
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Table 7.Profit variation (Z) depending on marketed milk (X), considered a variable factor and milk production cost
(Y), considered also a variable factor
X-Marketed
Y-Milk
Z-Profit from
X-Marketed
Y-Milk
Z-Profit from
milk, a variable
production cost,
marketed milk
milk, a variable
production cost,
marketed milk
factor
a variable factor
factor
a variable factor
4,000
1
497.46
5,600
1.32
2,400.327
4,100
1.02
616.38
5,700
1.34
2,519.256
4,200
1.04
735.31
5,800
1.36
2,522.181
4,300
1.06
854.24
5,900
1.38
2,757.114
4,400
1.08
973.17
6,000
1.40
2,876.044
4,500
1.10
1,092.106
6,100
1.42
2,994.973
4,600
1.12
1,211.035
6,200
1.44
3,113.901
4,700
1.14
1,3289.96
6,300
1.46
3,199.456
4,800
1.16
1,448.89
6,400
1.48
3,351.760
4,900
1.18
1,567.82
6,500
1.50
3,470.69
5,000
1.20
1,686.752
6,600
1.52
3,589.61
5,100
1.22
1,805.681
6,700
1.54
3,708.54
5,200
1.24
1,924.620
6,800
1.56
3,827.47
5,300
1.26
2,043.539
6,900
1.58
3,946.406
5,400
1.28
2,162.468
7,000
1.60
4,065.336
5,500
1.30
2,281.398
Source: Own calculations
CONCLUSIONS
Marketed milk represents one of the key
factors for increasing profit in dairy farms.
At a constant level of milk production cost,
Y= Lei 1.07/kg, an 100 kg growth of
marketed milk could determine an additonal
profit from milk accounting for Lei 18.7 per
cow and year in average,
When marketed milk is constant and equal to
5,507 kg,and milk production cost would
grow by Lei 0.02/kg, its influence on profit
coming from sold milk could be neglected
because is very small.
When both marleted milk and milk production
cost were variable factors, profit increased by
Lei 118.9/cow and year for each 100 kg
increase of marketed milk and every
additional Lei 0.02 production cost.
The large variety of dairy farms regarding
farms size and production potential, feeding
and raising conditions it isnot possible to set
up a model available for any farm. Howeverm
what is impportant for practice is the fact that
farmers should peridically analyze production
records, production costs and profit in order to
identify the favorable factors of influence
which could increase their profit. In this
respect, it is important to identify and decide
which pair of marketed milk and prodcution
228
cost shoudl adopt in order to get a higher and
higher profit.
Froma technical point of view, farmers should
keep in thier mind that the harminization of
all the factors determining marketed milk per
cowmis very important for producing a
kilogram of milk with lower production costs.
An increased milk yield requires an optimal
feeding and selection pressure by
high
breeding value bulls, besides the selection of
the primiparous cows. An increased marketed
milk requires an increased average milk and
also a reduced milk consumption by calves,
but also a higher milk quality.
Farmer should keep under control milk
production costs looking for solutions to
reduce them as mush as they can in order to
balance the relationship between milk cost
and milk price in the benefit of a higher profit
from marketed milk.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author thanks the ten dairy farmers for
their kindness and all their support to provide
the data from the farm book-keeping as this
paper to be carry out.
Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development
Vol. 14, Issue 2, 2014
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[17]Food safety starts at farm, The Friesian and
AgroConsultancy, The Bilateral Romanian Dutch
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