VOLU M E 24, N U M B E R 2 | S P R I NG 20 1 5
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices,
Low Oil Prices?
By Ryan M. Hanna, Vice President and Investment Officer, 617-441-1497
Who Doesn’t Like a Discount?
Late last year, an interesting opportunity presented itself. For
months, I desired a Smart television to replace a television
purchased in 2009. Technology had advanced to the point
that my six year old Panasonic seemed as though it was straight
out of the Stone Age. Time was spent researching different
features, reading reviews, and monitoring prices with a focus
on a specific Samsung that had all the bells and whistles,
but the price was more than I was willing to pay. Two weeks
before Thanksgiving, the price of the television dropped by
45%, a pre-Black Friday sale. This was the opportunity to
purchase at a price 45% below the price the television had
been listed at for months. Several weeks after the purchase,
the price of the television rose and was trading at only a 1520% discount to the pre-fire sale price. A 45% discount to
the original retail price incentivized buyers to buy a television.
Consumer behavior when purchasing a television is not that
different from purchasing any other goods or services. In this
particular example consumers responded to lower prices and
helped reduce some of the excess inventory. Once the excess
inventory had been worked off, prices normalized, albeit at
slightly lower levels than before.
The television scenario is not very different from the
controversies and potential opportunities across energy
markets today. Following a 50% decline in crude prices, are
shares of energy companies on sale today? Why have prices
fallen and why was the decline so abrupt? Have prices fallen
far enough, and how long will prices remain depressed? What
has been the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’
(OPEC) response to the evolving global energy environment
and are there longer-term geopolitical implications? Finally,
how will producers behave in the current crude price
environment? While there are many factors to consider,
hopefully we can glean some insight into the future direction
of crude prices and energy stocks based on our analysis of
prior commodity cycles and by understanding how we got to
where we are today.
Volatility
In just more than nine months the price of West Texas
Intermediate (WTI), a domestic benchmark for crude oil
pricing, and Brent crude, an international crude benchmark,
fell by more than 50% (Chart #1).
Price changes of this magnitude are uncommon, absent a
global recession. However, research from J.P. Morgan indicates
that there have been two episodes over the past thirty years
in which oil price drops of 40% were not associated with
global recessions. In both 1986 and in 1997-1998, sharp
declines in energy prices actually preceded a growth surge
in developed markets. In both episodes, developed market
growth rose above 4.5% for a full year following these crude
price declines.1 Ultimately, we expect lower crude prices to
help bolster economic growth, albeit to something less than
4%. We do not see signs of a global economic recession on
the horizon. In January, the International Monetary Fund
revised its global growth forecast down by 0.3% to 3.5% for
2015.2
Data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
show crude oil production in the United States has grown
from around 5.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January
Continued on page 2
A
P UBL I CATION
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
Chart 1
Chart 1. WTI & Brent Crude Oil Spot Price ($/barrel) – Jul 2014 - Apr 14, 2015
120
$ Per Barrel
100
80
58.08
60
52.26 40
20
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price
Mar-15
Brent Crude Spot Prices
Source: Bloomberg
global demand for crude, which grew below 1%, caused a
dislocation in the balance of the supply and demand of oil
and contributed to the weakness in crude prices.
2009 to 9.2 mbpd at the end of January 20153, levels not
seen since the early 1970s (Chart #2). Realistically, domestic
crude oil production has been increasing for six years and
higher production should not constitute a surprise to
investors, although the magnitude of supply growth last year
was surprising. In 2014, oil supply growth from non-OPEC
members (mostly the United States) grew by a total of 2.1
In 2014, like many other times, we witnessed turbulence
across the Middle East, in places like Libya, Iran, and Iraq,
and oil supplies from this region became unpredictable and
unstable. Last year, crude oil supply from OPEC totaled
Chart 2
Chart 2. U.S. Domestic Crude Oil Production
Barrels per Day (Thousands)
10500
9500
8500
7500
6500
5500
4500
3500
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
mbpd, or more than 3% compared to the previous year.
This was the first time in the last 30 years that the growth
in annual non-OPEC crude supplies surpassed 3%.4 This
period of record supply growth, combined with sub-par
slightly more than 30 mbpd, roughly flat with levels produced
in 2013. However, sanctions on Iran have suppressed its
oil output to 2.85 mbpd and exports have fallen to just 1
mbpd. Peak production in Iran was 3.9 mbpd in 2004. A
Continued on page 3
2
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
OPEC’s intent was to drive prices lower and squeeze out the
marginal U.S. shale producers. The average marginal cost for
North American Shale, or the cost needed to break even over
the lifetime of a well or drilling program, is roughly $65 per
barrel.6 Average break-even prices for oil produced in the
Middle East are much lower at $27 per barrel. With Brent
Oil prices at $55 per barrel at the end of March 2015, most
Middle Eastern production was profitable, while a significant
amount of shale production was not. Unfortunately,
driving down the price of crude hurts government finances
for a number of OPEC and other Gulf Coast countries.
Calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
show that most countries in the Middle East need oil prices
nuclear deal with Iran, is currently being negotiated, but
is not guaranteed. If sanctions were to be lifted, Iran’s oil
minister, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, claims the country could
easily increase production and exports by 1 mbpd in just a
few months.5 Other countries, like Libya, have also seen
supply remain offline because of insurgent fighting at major
oil export hubs. According to Bloomberg, oil output in Libya
in the month of March was 480,000 barrels per day, up from
250,000 bpd in February. However, total Libyan oil capacity
is closer to 1.5 mbpd. If the situation in either of these two
regions improves, 2 mbpd of oil supply could potentially be
added back into the market, causing further price declines
and added volatility.
Chart 3
Chart 3. Fiscal Breakeven Prices, 2015 (U.S. dollars per barrel) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Kuwait
Qatar
Iraq
UAE
Saudi
Arabia
Oman Bahrain
Another factor contributing to volatility in crude prices and
the global energy markets in 2014 was a decision made by
OPEC at its November meeting in Vienna. OPEC decided to
maintain oil production at its quota of 30 mbpd, effectively
declaring war against the U.S. shale producers. They were
seen as vulnerable to low oil prices because their process
of getting crude out of the ground is more expensive than
conventional extraction methods used by OPEC members.
Expectations were that OPEC would reduce production to
help balance the market and bring some needed stability
to prices. However, not unlike 1986, when OPEC made
a similar decision to keep pumping crude oil into an
oversupplied market, some members of the Cartel felt the
need to defend market share. Interestingly, the decision to
trade price for market share has a double-sided outcome. By
fueling an already oversupplied market with more crude oil,
Iran
Algeria
Libya
Yemen
Source: IMF
Source:
IMF
above $60 to cover government spending. Fiscal break-even
oil prices for some of these exporting nations range from
$51 per barrel on the low-end for Kuwait to $150 per barrel
on the high-end for Yemen (Chart #3). Ongoing oil price
weakness may ultimately cause added geopolitical stress in
many of these oil exporting countries.
Another important factor to consider in explaining the oil
price volatility is the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to most
other major currencies. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, so a rise
in U.S. currency compared to a basket of foreign currencies
makes oil more expensive to foreign buyers. Coincident
with the fall in oil prices starting in the middle of 2014 was
the emerging strength of the U.S. dollar, reflecting stronger
relative U.S. economic performance. Currently, most central
banks across the world, aside from the Federal Reserve, are in
Continued on page 6
3
The New Hampshire Advantage Revisited
By Susan Martore-Baker, President, Cambridge Trust Company of New Hampshire, 603-369-5101
• Trust Protectors and Trust Advisors- New Hampshire
law recognizes trust protectors and trust advisors who
oversee or advise the trustees or investment managers. A
donor of a trust can name and define the roles of the trust
protector or advisor when the trust is created. If there is
an existing trust, the trustee and the trust’s beneficiaries
could agree to appoint a trust protector or advisor. The
roles and responsibilities may include the power to
veto an investment decision or make a distribution to a
beneficiary.
Commencing with the Trust Modernization and
Competitiveness Act of 2006, the New Hampshire legislature
passed laws to establish New Hampshire as the best and most
attractive legal environment in the nation for trusts and trust
services. New Hampshire is committed to remaining among
the top ranked states for trusts, amending trust laws almost
annually since 2008, and as recently as 2014.
New Hampshire Trust Laws Provide the
Following:
• Directed Trusts- New Hampshire law allows for
investment and administrative responsibilities to be
separated so that the donor of a trust can appoint
different trustees or agents for investment management,
administration, distributions, and other duties. If a
trustee must follow the direction of another trustee, that
trustee is considered to be an “excluded fiduciary” with
regard to certain actions and will not be held liable for
the actions of the other advisor or trustee.
• Decanting- Decanting is a process by which a trustee
creates a new trust and transfers assets from the current
trust to a new trust. For example, the new trust could
include provisions that improve the administration, such
as those governing investments, distributions, or trustee
succession. Decanting is an attractive option to improve
an otherwise irrevocable trust. The power to decant does
not require a court’s approval in New Hampshire.
• Efficient Administration Provisions- Through
concepts like virtual representation, which allows
certain beneficiaries to represent the interests of other
beneficiaries, and non judicial settlement agreements,
trustees often can resolve administrative issues without
court involvement. Nonjudicial settlement agreements
save time and legal expense.
• Dynasty Trusts- An individual can create a trust that
continues in perpetuity. A trust for a particular purpose
or beneficiaries need not terminate within some time
frame or someone’s lifetime. It might continue for many
generations or for eternity, in some cases. This is not
the situation in most states which require that a trust
terminate within a specific number of years or a life
in being. This is commonly known as the rule against
perpetuities.
• State Tax Advantages- New Hampshire does not impose
an income tax, including dividend, interest, and capital
gain tax, on irrevocable trusts. These taxes are not
imposed at the trust level, however taxes may be due by
beneficiaries who receive distributions. The savings of
state income taxes in a trust that accumulates income can
be powerful.
• Asset Protection Trusts- Also called wealth preservation
trusts, these trusts provide significant protections for
assets held in the trust against the donor’s creditors,
such as from litigation or divorce, while allowing the
donor access to the funds as a beneficiary of the trust
and providing protection for future beneficiaries as
well. There are specific requirements that must be met
to protect assets in this type of trust including but not
limited to the trust being irrevocable and having at least
one “qualified” trustee, for example, a trust company
with trust powers in New Hampshire.
Continued on page 5
4
The New Hampshire Advantage Revisited
What is New?
(continued)
in existence generation after generation, New Hampshire
permits a dynasty trust without violating the Rule Against
Perpetuities. The ability to continue a trust may be helpful
in working with beneficiaries who feel entitled or are
spendthrifts. Instead incentive provisions can be included in
the trust to incent specific behaviors. If a beneficiary takes
legal action against a trust, the trustee has authorization to
cancel any distributions to that beneficiary provided the
trust has the proper language. If 100 years from now the
administration of an ongoing New Hampshire trust does not
work, the trustee will have the ability to change the trust in
order to make it more workable or close it down in favor of
one that does work, keeping the donor’s original intentions
in mind, of course. Provisions in the trust can require any
disputes to be resolved without court intervention and that
requirement must be followed.
Since much has been written about “The New Hampshire
Advantage” as revisited above, what is new? And more
importantly, what do recent enhancements mean to donors,
trustees, and beneficiaries? New legislation became effective
as recently as July 2014 which further strengthens New
Hampshire’s position as one of the top jurisdictions for trust
law. Here are some of the updates:
The new law enforces no contest clauses and is designed to
allow a trustee of a trust or the personal representative of an
estate to stop distributions to beneficiaries if they have taken
action to contest the provisions of a trust or will from which
they benefit.
An individual, the testator, can now prove a will while alive
by filing a petition and giving notice to interested persons. A
court hearing determines if the will is valid, but having the
testator present for the hearing can avoid a future challenge
in many cases. The 2014 law also sets limits on the time
one can contest the validity of a will. This applies to New
Hampshire residents or individuals who own real property in
New Hampshire.
In most states the trustee is responsible for all trust related
duties, including the administration and investment of trust
property. In New Hampshire, duties and responsibilities
can be separated thereby limiting liability through the use
of a directed trust. Perhaps an individual has an existing
relationship with an investment advisor and creates a new
trust. The donor wants to retain the investment advisor
but also needs a trustee to administer the trust. A New
Hampshire trustee can be named to take advantage of some
of the benefits offered under New Hampshire law. The trust
can be drafted as a directed trust so that the investment
management and liability rest directly with the investment
advisor and the administration of the trust is with the New
Hampshire trustee.
A donor can validate a trust by commencing a judicial
proceeding and having the court validate the trust while the
donor is living. The validity of the trust cannot be challenged
after death if approved by the court beforehand.
Additional updates to New Hampshire’s trust laws include:
attorney-client privilege provisions protecting a trustee and
trust counsel, dispute resolution without court involvement,
clarification of changes to decanting laws, the ability of
a trustee to change the terms of a trust, the resolution of
claims, and rules relating to the trustee’s investment conduct
as it relates to the Prudent Investor Rule.
Many of these advantages are not available in other
states. Whether an individual lives in New Hampshire
or elsewhere, the benefits are available to them as long as
specific requirements are met. We recommend working
with a qualified attorney to be sure individuals are able to
take advantage of the Granite State’s attractive trust laws.
Cambridge Trust Company of New Hampshire, Inc., a
non-depository trust company, can help guide individuals
through the process of establishing or moving a trust to New
Hampshire.
Trusts in general offer an individual the ability to control their
own wealth and determine who, how, and when beneficiaries
receive trust property. So what impact do New Hampshire’s
laws have on an individual’s estate planning, whether or not
they live in New Hampshire? New Hampshire’s trust laws
add some unique benefits and flexibility when the trust is
drafted correctly. If, for instance, a trust is intended to stay
5
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
the early stages of monetary easing policies, which argue for
ongoing foreign currency weakness relative to the U.S. dollar.
Should the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen, that may cap
how high oil prices go.
that the phrase was the cover story of the March 4, 1999
issue of The Economist, Drowning in Oil. Sixteen years
later, almost to the day, we are having a similar dialog about
a plunge in prices, a glut of oil, storage constraints, and
political instability across the Middle East. On many levels,
the similarities between then and now are striking. Then, the
drowning subsequently led to a thirst for oil and a higher
price.
Price volatility is not new to this oil cycle, or any other crude
cycle for that matter. Looking back over the last thirty years,
long enough to include three recessions (early 1990s, the
early 2000s, and 2008-2009); several wars including the U.S.
invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein; the
tragedies of September 11; new oil discoveries in the U.S.,
Brazil and West Africa (to name just a few); and constant
unrest in many oil producing nations, there has been a history
of oil price volatility. Research from Evercore ISI highlights
that over the last 30 years Brent Oil prices have made six
Chart 4
Chart 4
It is important to understand the role that technology played
in our current domestic energy renaissance and to recognize
the unprecedented change the U.S. has undergone in less
than a decade. Technological advancements across the energy
industry in the United States have caused domestic oil
and natural gas production to surge. Below (Chart #4) is a
Chart 4. Putting Horizontal Drilling & Fracking Together
Horizontal well – touches 1-3 BCF
Vertical well – touches 0.1-0.6 BCF
Source: BernsteinResearch, The Basics of Oil and Gas: A Short E&P Primer, 10/2014
significant new lows (1986, 1988, 1994, 1998, 2001, and
2008). In the twelve months following each of these lows,
Brent prices rebounded by an average of 82%7. So if history
repeats itself, an 82% increase from this cycle low would
indicate Brent crude prices approaching $90 per barrel and
WTI prices above $80 by January 2016. Admittedly, in each
case, the bottom was not immediately known and it took
several months to create and identify the floor.
visual interpretation of how the combination of horizontal
drilling and hydraulic fracturing has allowed producers
to “touch” more of the source rock thus increasing the
volume of producing wells by a factor of 10x compared to
traditional conventional drilling.8 This has led to a surge
in domestic supply that has reversed 30 years of declining
domestic production. According to the Energy Information
Administration (EIA), the United States has reduced
imported crude supplies from 57% of total consumption
in 2009 to 27% in 2014. Also, U.S. net imports reached a
peak in 2006 of greater than 12.5 million barrels per day; in
2015, the U.S. should import only around 5 million barrels.
Through a combination of energy efficiency, increasing use
Drowning in Oil
The world is drowning in oil! In 2015, this sounds like
something we would read on any given day by numerous
well-respected news sources. So it might be a surprise to hear
Continued on page 7
6
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
of alternatives and greater U.S. production, U.S. dependence
on foreign oil has fallen dramatically over the past decade.
mechanism for crude. In this case, it represents the full cycle
cost of extracting the next incremental barrel of oil. Cash
costs are different than marginal costs. The cash cost is
basically what it takes to keep oil production going, not what
it takes to be profitable. If the price drops below the cash
cost, then as most rational businesses would do, production
would be stopped. This represents the lowest price at which
oil is produced, or the price floor.
So, are we actually drowning in oil? Yes, right now in the
United States we are. Storage of crude oil is approaching
capacity and some domestic oil producers are deciding to
leave crude in the ground, awaiting higher prices in the
future. Having too much oil, something that only 10 years
ago might have been construed as ridiculous, now looks to
be fairly obvious. As a result, in November 2014, the U.S.
Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security
(BIS) opened the door for changes in its long-held policy
on exporting crude by allowing the export of some forms
of processed condensates that have been put through a basic
refining process. Most crude exports from the U.S. have
been banned since 1975, with the exception of shipments to
Canada. There is a growing sense that this exception could be
BernsteinResearch provides an understanding of these
dynamics in its marginal cost curve chart below (Chart #5).
This chart provides a blueprint for where the top and bottom
boundaries of oil prices have been over the past 25 years,
along with the actual oil price and the estimated marginal
cost. The top of this range indicates the estimated price of
demand destruction (price ceiling) and the bottom of the
range indicates the estimated cash cost (price floor). The
Chart 5
Chart 5
Marginal cost has moved up over time
Source: Bernstein Research, January 23, 2015
the first step towards a more liberal stance favoring additional
crude exports given our current abundance of light sweet
crude oil in the United States.
black line shows West Texas Intermediate oil prices and the
green line shows the estimated marginal cost of oil. Over the
long term, the price of oil moves closely around the marginal
cost of supply, which has been trending higher since 2000.
When Will Supplies Fall?
The reaction of North American oil (and gas) producers
to lower commodity prices has been as expected. With
Conceptually, the marginal cost of supply, or the cost of
producing one more unit of oil, serves as a price setting
Continued on page 8
7
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
7.5 million new barrels of oil need to be found every day
just to keep up with decline rates and population growth.
In a 2013 company presentation, Chevron indicated that
200 billion barrels of oil would need to be found between
2013 and 2030 to offset natural decline and meet expected
demand.
prices hovering near estimated cash costs, companies have
significantly curtailed new drilling programs, scaled back on
capital expenditures, and have negotiated with oil service
companies for more accommodative contract prices and
terms to reduce costs. As of March 27, 2015, the Baker
Hughes North American Oil Rig Count shows there are 925
fewer rigs (-45%) operating today compared to one year ago.
As one might expect, oil rigs are used to drill new wells. While
the price of oil began to fall last year, companies began to
curtail spending and the number of rigs drilling for oil began
to slow. Conventional wisdom leads one to believe that fewer
rigs drilling for oil will eventually lead to a slowdown in oil
production. This is true, but it will happen with a lag.
Only within the last few weeks, has there been an indication
that the declining rig count is starting to slow domestic
oil production. The EIA published a report on March 17,
2015 indicating that the “falling rig counts drive projected
near-term oil production decline in three key U.S. regions.”
Those three regions are the Eagle Ford in Texas, the Bakken
in North Dakota, and the Niobrara in Colorado. The 45%
decline in the rig count drilling for oil, combined with the
extremely fast decline rates of these shale wells, and moderate
global economic growth, is precipitating a rebalancing which
is reflected in the oil price recovery to over $60 from a low
of $46 (WTI).
Domestic energy producers have been undergoing a process
of “high-grading” or improving efficiencies. Companies are
taking older, less efficient rigs offline and keeping their best
horizontal rigs active. They are also moving rigs to their best
producing areas that are most profitable and shutting down
older, less productive sites. This is an important factor that
has kept production growing, even as the rig count has fallen.
Negative Sentiment
Investor psychology also plays a part in the timing and level
of an oil price bottom. Buying low and selling high is the
most fundamental concept of investing, yet in practice, it can
be hard to do. Investors tend to follow the herd and be biased
towards investments that have done the best, while shunning
underperforming assets or asset classes. It is always darkest
before dawn.
Perhaps more important in explaining why production
has not slowed yet is the trajectory and duration of initial
production rates from shale oil wells. When a shale oil well
is drilled and completed (completing a well is the process of
electro-magnetically fracturing the well and then pumping
the well with water, sand, and proppants to hold open the
fractures and let the oil flow), the initial rates of production
during the first 6-12 months are among the highest those
wells will ever experience. Research from Bank of America
Merrill Lynch shows that 67% of the net present value of
shale wells is realized in the first three years.9 Shale wells are
different than conventional wells in that the decline rates are
significantly higher. Production is front-end loaded and wells
decline very quickly after the initial production rates.
Looking back, the timing of the “Drowning in Oil” article in
March 1999 could not have been a better contrary indicator
representing a bottom in oil prices ($10 per barrel), while at
the same time, marking a low in investor sentiment towards
crude prices and the energy sector, in general. Until recently
sentiment today is not much different than 1999. Then, and
now, low prices and the belief that we have too much oil led
to a disincentive to explore for and produce more oil. It led
to a period of underinvestment by high-cost producers like
the North American shale companies. Developers reduced
capital spending to keep budgets within operating cash flow.
They spent less money, drilled fewer wells, explored less in
remote regions and scaled back exploration for new unfound
discoveries which tend to be costly and unprofitable at
low prices. Ultimately, this period of underinvestment led
to higher oil prices down the road. By mid-2000, only 18
months after the Economist claimed we had too much oil,
Brent crude prices had moved from $10 to $25 per barrel.
Decline rates are vitally important to understand for a few
reasons. According to a study from BernsteinResearch, global
oil decline rates are 6.7% per year.10 In the United States,
onshore decline rates are much higher reaching almost 25%
per year. In 2014, the entire world produced a little more
than 93 million barrels of oil per day. Assuming a 6.7%
decline rate, the annual decline in production would be
roughly 6.5 million barrels from the 93 million barrel base.
If global demand continues to grow by roughly 1% per year
(the average growth over the past 50 years) that means almost
Continued on page 9
8
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices? (continued)
Six years later, in 2006, Brent crude prices were almost $80
per barrel. In today’s cycle, the price has recovered more than
40% from its January 2015 low.
higher again. Lower oil and gasoline prices may incentivize
consumers to take more trips, buy a new car, go out to eat a
few extra times each month, or even upgrade their television
to the newest model. All of these decisions should help spur
economic growth and when growth improves, demand for
oil will reaccelerate.
A long-term investor might believe that this is an opportunity
to add exposure to a sector that is on sale. Despite the recent
oil price volatility driven by a surplus of oil, global oil demand
will continue growing by 1% or more each year; OPEC will
eventually scale back its production, notwithstanding any
incremental growth that comes from Iran or Libya, and the
oil markets will eventually rebalance and prices will move
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
J.P. Morgan Chase, Economic Research Note, Oil and the Global Economy, December 5, 2014
International Monetary Fund, Global Growth Revised Down, Despite Cheaper Oil, Faster U.S. Growth, January 20, 2015
U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil Production, March, 30, 2015
BernsteinResearch, An Oil Price View for 2015, January 5, 2015
The Telegraph, Iran Nuclear Deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market, March 29, 2015
Morgan Stanley, Global Supply Curve: Shales Needed to Meet Demand
Evercore ISI Daily Economic Report, January 28, 2015
BernsteinResearch, The Basics of Oil and Gas: A Short E&P Prime, October 2014
BankofAmerica Merrill Lynch, Oil & Gas: Sector Strategy, January 23, 2015
BernsteinResearch, How Falling Prices Could Impact Global Production, March 27, 2015
Cambridge TrustLetter Editor – Laura C. McGregor
Cambridge TrustLetter is a publication of Cambridge Trust Company, an FDIC member bank with 12 Massachusetts branch offices in Cambridge,
Boston, Belmont, Concord, Lexington, Lincoln, and Weston. The Wealth Management group maintains offices in Boston, Massachusetts, and
Concord, Manchester, and Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Telephone connecting all Massachusetts offices is 617-876-5500. For New Hampshire
offices, call 603-226-1212. Visit our website at cambridgetrust.com. Copyright© 2015.
Securities and other investment products are:
Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • Not Bank Guaranteed • Not A Deposit • Not Insured By Any Government Agency
9
Cambridge
TrustLetter
Spring 2015
Is the Cure for Low Oil Prices, Low Oil Prices?
By Ryan M. Hanna, Vice President and Investment Officer, 617-441-1497
The New Hampshire Advantage Revisited
By Susan Martore-Baker, President, Cambridge Trust Company of New Hampshire, 603-369-5101
Wealth Management
75 State Street, 18th Floor
Boston, MA 02109