OZONE AND SO2 NAAQS
IMPLEMENTATION UPDATES
SCOTT MATHIAS
SESARM/METRO-4 FALL AIR DIRECTOR’S MEETING
OCTOBER 27-28, 2015
OVERVIEW
 Ozone NAAQS Implementation Update
 Exceptional Events Updates
 SO2 NAAQS Implementation and Designations
2
NAAQS REVIEWS: STATUS UPDATE
(AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2015)
Last Review
Completed (final
rule signed)
Recent or
Upcoming Major
Milestone(s)1
Ozone
Lead
Primary
NO2
Primary SO2
Secondary
NO2 and SO2
PM
CO
Mar 2008
Oct 2008
Jan 2010
Jun 2010
Mar 2012
Dec 2012
Aug 2011
Fall 2015
draft ISA
Fall 2015
Draft IRP
Dec 2015
Draft IRP
TBD3
Oct 1, 2015 2
Final rule signed
January 5,
2015
Proposed rule
published in FR
April 6, 2015
Comment
period closed
June 2-3, 2015
CASAC meeting
to discuss 2nd
draft ISA and
REA Planning
document
August 13, 2015
CASAC
teleconference
to discuss letters
on 2nd draft ISA
and REA
Planning
Document
1st
Additional information regarding current and previous NAAQS reviews is available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/
IRP – Integrated Review Plan; ISA – Integrated Science Assessment; REA – Risk and Exposure Assessment; PA – Policy Assessment
court-ordered deadline
3 TBD = to be determined
1
2 Indicates
3
ANTICIPATED NAAQS IMPLEMENTATION MILESTONES
(UPDATED OCTOBER 1, 2015)
Pollutant
Final
NAAQS
Date
Designations
Effective
Infrastructure
SIP Due
Attainment
Plans Due
Attainment Date
PM2.5 (2006)
Oct 2006
Dec 2009
Oct 2009
Dec 2014
Dec 2015 (Mod)
Dec 2019 (Ser)
Pb (2008)
Oct 2008
Dec
2010-2011
Oct 2011
June
2012-2013
Dec 2015-2016
NO2 (2010)
(primary)
Jan 2010
Feb 2012
Jan 2013
N/A
N/A
SO2 (2010)
(primary)
June 2010
Oct 2013
(+3 rounds)
June 2013
April 2015
(2018, 2019,
2022)
Oct 2018
(2023, 2024,
2027)
Ozone
(2008)
Mar 2008
July 2012
Mar 2011
Mid 2015-2016
Mid 2015-2032
PM2.5 (2012)
Dec 2012
Apr 2015
Dec 2015
Oct 2016
Dec 2021 (Mod)
Dec 2025 (Ser)
Ozone
(2015)
Oct 2015
Dec 2017*
Oct 2018
Dec 2020-21*
2020-2037*
* Tentative. Could be later if 2017 ozone data are considered.
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2008 OZONE NAAQS IMPLEMENTATION
 46 Areas designated nonattainment effective July 20, 2012.
 Final 2008 Ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule:
“Implementation of the 2008 NAAQS for Ozone: State
Implementation Plan Requirements Rule” published March 6,
2015 (80 FR 12264).
 Contains final rules to interpret CAA ozone implementation
requirements for the 2008 NAAQS, and guidance on many aspects of
the attainment planning requirements for designated nonattainment
areas.
 Revoked 1997 NAAQS effective April 6, 2015 and established anti-
backsliding requirements.
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2008 OZONE NAAQS IMPLEMENTATION:
KEY DATES
 Due July 2014 – Emissions statement rule, emissions inventory, and
RACT SIPs
 Due July 2015 – Attainment plans and demonstrations for Moderate
areas
 July 20, 2015 – Marginal area attainment date (attainment determined by
2012-2014 air quality data)
 Due early 2016* – RACT SIPs, attainment plans and demonstrations for
reclassified Moderate areas (* final date TBD by rulemaking)
 Due July 2016 – Attainment plans and demonstrations for Serious and
above areas
 July 20, 2018 – Moderate area attainment date (attainment determined
by 2015-2017 air quality data)
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2008 OZONE NAAQS IMPLEMENTATION:
PROPOSED ACTIONS FOR MARGINAL NONATTAINMENT AREAS
 Marginal area attainment date was July 20, 2015.
 On August 27, 2015, EPA proposed several actions for 36 Marginal areas:
 Determinations of attainment by the attainment date proposed for 17 areas.
 One-year extensions of the attainment date proposed for 8 areas.
 Reclassification to Moderate due to failure to attain by the attainment date
proposed for 11 areas.
 Proposal also includes 2 options for Moderate area attainment plan due date:
 Beginning of each area’s 2017 ozone season, or
 January 1, 2017 (for all seasons).
 Comment period closed September 28, 2015.
 Clean Air Act requires EPA to take final action by January 20, 2016.
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PROGRESS ON OZONE NAAQS ATTAINMENT
1997 Ozone
2008 Ozone
(2004 Designations)
(2012 Designations)
115
46
80
(prior to
revocation)
2
Current Nonattainment Areas
35
45
Clean Data Determinations
25
1*
Proposed Redesignations/
Redesignation Substitutes
0
1
(as of September 10, 2015)
Initial Nonattainment Areas
Areas Redesignated to Attainment
* Determinations of attainment by the attainment date proposed for 17 areas on August 27, 2015.
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2015 OZONE STANDARDS
 Promulgated October 1, 2015.
 Will be effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
 Memo issued by Acting Assistant Administrator on October 1, 2015 outlines
EPA’s plans for addressing issues related to:
 Guidance available to agencies;
 Ensuring major source permitting is effective and efficient;
 Designating areas;
 Background ozone;
 Interstate ozone transport;
 The challenges of reducing ozone in California;
 Managing monitoring networks;
 Emissions from wildland fires; and
 Transportation planning.
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Anticipated Schedule for 2015 Ozone NAAQS Implementation Rules/Guidance/Tools
After NAAQS
Promulgation
Planned Dates
Upon
promulgation
October 2015
Propose Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone
demonstrations
1 month
November 2015
Area designations guidance (including Rural Transport Areas)
4 months
February 2015
Final update to PSD permit modeling guideline (Appendix W; proposed July 2015)
8 months
June 2016
Final Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone
demonstrations
10 months
August 2016
States submit area designation recommendations
12 months
October 2016
Interstate ozone transport contribution assessment NODA
12 months
October 2016
Propose nonattainment area rules/guidance (including area classifications, SIP due
dates, nonattainment NSR provisions)
12 months
October 2016
Final designations, classifications, and nonattainment area SIP rules/guidance
24 months
October 2017
Update to transportation conformity guidance
25 months
November 2017
States submit Infrastructure and Transport SIPs
36 months
October 2018
States submit Attainment plans
5-6 years
2020-2021
Nonattainment Area Attainment Dates (Marginal – Extreme)
5-22 years
10
2020-2037
Action
Final 2015 Ozone NAAQS revision, monitoring rules, exceptional event
demonstration schedule, and PSD permit grandfathering provision
Rev10-1-2015
AREA DESIGNATIONS
 Final area designations due Fall 2017 - based on 2014-2016 final
DVs (120-day letters by June 2017).
 Early-certified 2017 data may also be relevant to final designations.
 We expect state designation recommendations to be based on 2013-
2015 and preliminary 2016 data, including any exceptional event
considerations.
 Exceptional event demonstration submission deadlines:
 October 1, 2016 for 2014-2015 events
 May 31, 2017 for 2016 events
 Nonattainment area classification scheme
 Percent-above-standard approach?
 Voluntary reclassifications
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Area class
Marginal
Moderate
Serious
Severe-15
Severe-17
Extreme
Percent
Class DV Thresholds (ppm)
Design value
above 1-hour
thresholds
NAAQS of
0.075
0.070*
1-hour ozone (ppm) 0.120 ppm
from
up to
From
up to
From
up to
From
up to
From
up to
Equal to
or above
0.121
0.138
0.138
0.160
0.160
0.180
0.180
0.190
0.190
0.280
NA
15.00%
15.00%
33.33%
33.33%
50.00%
50.00%
58.33%
58.33%
133.33%
0.076
0.086
0.086
0.100
0.100
0.113
0.113
0.119
0.119
0.175
0.071
0.081
0.081
0.093
0.093
0.105
0.105
0.111
0.111
0.163
0.280
133.33%
0.175
0.163
* For discussion purposes. Final thresholds will be established through notice-and-comment rulemaking.
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(213 counties)
(28 counties)
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FREQUENT IMPLEMENTATION QUESTIONS
 Timing of revocation for 2008 ozone NAAQS?
 What are the anti-backsliding requirements for the 2008
NAAQS?
 For nonattainment areas bumped up to Moderate for 2008 NAAQS, will
states owe an attainment demo?
 For areas bumped up to Moderate for 2008 NAAQS, will states need to
provide a separate RACT SIP or can they complete the RACT
requirement for both 2008 and 2015 NAAQS at once?
 Flexibility for VOC RACT or VOC NSR in NOx limited areas?
 RFP accounting: Can out-of-area reductions be used for
compliance?
 Others?
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OZONE FROM BACKGROUND SOURCES
 Background ozone refers to ozone that forms from natural sources, such as
wildfires or stratospheric intrusions, and from man-made pollution from
sources outside the U.S.
 EPA is planning for further discussions with stakeholders on assessing areas
for high background ozone and on applicable policies and tools, including:
 Exceptional event exclusions
 Area designations and rural transport areas
 Section 179B international emissions
 Potential stakeholder discussion questions:
 From the stakeholder perspective, what additional data elements and/or model
improvements are needed to better characterize background O3 levels across the
U.S.?
 From the stakeholder perspective, has EPA properly characterized the various CAA
provisions under consideration for areas influenced by background O3?
 Are there sufficient technical tools and data available to make the demonstrations
necessary to legally invoke relevant CAA provisions?
 How should background O3 be treated in modeling accompanying Prevention of
Significant Deterioration (PSD) permits?
15
Figure 2-15, EPA Policy Assessment. Distributions of the relative proportion of USB O3 to total
O3, from 2007 CAMx source apportionment modeling, binned by model MDA8 O3.
Illustration
=
=
=
=
=
= >60 ppb
16
OZONE PERMITTING
 Recap of final PSD permit grandfathering provision
 Are state permit authorities using this provision?
 Plans for issuing ozone SIL and MERPs guidance
 PSD Offsets (see 40 CFR 51.165(b)(3))
 Nonattainment NSR Offsets
 Preparing for future nonattainment
 Interpollutant substitution
17
CURRENT THINKING ON EXCEPTIONAL EVENTS RULE
RULE REVISIONS
18
CURRENT THINKING: WILDFIRE/OZONE
EXCEPTIONAL EVENTS IMPLEMENTATION GUIDANCE
 Full document name: Draft Guidance on the Preparation of
Exceptional Events Demonstrations for Wildfire Events that May
Influence Ozone Concentrations
 What does the draft guidance do?
 Incorporates and applies the proposed rule revisions to wildfire/ozone
events.
 Provides example analyses, conclusion statements, and technical tools
that air agencies can use to provide evidence that the wildfire event
influenced the monitored ozone concentration.
 Identifies fire and monitor-based characteristics that would allow for a
streamlined demonstration package.
 Invites comment on the appropriateness of either expanding the
wildfire/ozone guidance, or developing a separate guidance document, to
specifically address demonstration components for prescribed fires.
19
2010 SO2 NAAQS IMPLEMENTATION
 EPA revised primary SO2 standard on June 3, 2010 (75 ppb/1-
hour).
 29 areas designated nonattainment effective October 4, 2013.
 Final Guidance for 1-hr SO2 NAAQS Nonattainment Area SIP
Submissions issued on April 23, 2014.
 www.epa.gov/airquality/sulfurdioxide/pdfs/20140423guidance.pdf
 EPA regional offices are working to assist states with SO2 NA areas in
applying this guidance to develop SIPs, redesignate areas, etc.
 Attainment plans for 29 areas currently designated nonattainment
were due April 4, 2015.
20
SO2 NAAQS DATA REQUIREMENTS RULE
 Final Data Requirements Rule, issued on August 10, 2015, establishes
requirements for air agencies to monitor or model ambient SO2 levels
in areas with largest sources of SO2 emissions to help implement the 1hour SO2 NAAQS.
 At a minimum, air agencies must characterize air quality around sources
that emit 2,000 tons per year (tpy) or more of SO2 or adopt
enforceable emission limits that ensure that the source will not emit
more than 2,000 tpy of SO2.
 Based on 2011 emissions data, a threshold of 2,000 tpy accounts for
approximately 412 sources and covers 89% of U.S. SO2 emissions.
 Based on more recent data, it is estimated that about 10% fewer sources now
exceed this threshold.
 Final rule establishes a schedule for air agencies to characterize air
quality and to provide that air quality data to the EPA. It does not
establish a designations schedule.
21
SO2 NAAQS DATA REQUIREMENTS RULE:
IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE
 January 15, 2016: Air agency identifies sources exceeding threshold and
other sources for which air quality will be characterized.
 July 1, 2016: Air agency specifies (for each identified source) whether it will
monitor air quality, model air quality, or establish an enforceable limit.
 Air agency also accordingly submits a revised monitoring plan, modeling protocols, or
descriptions of planned limits on emissions to less than 2,000 tpy.
 January 2017
 New monitoring sites must be operational by January 1, 2017.
 Modeling analyses must be submitted to EPA by January 13, 2017.
 Documentation of federally enforceable emission limits and compliance must be
submitted to EPA by January 13, 2017.
 Early 2020: Monitoring sites will have 3 years of quality-assured data which
must be submitted to EPA.
22
2010 SO2 NAAQS DESIGNATIONS
 Court order issued on March 2, 2015 by U.S. District Court for
Northern California establishes the following deadlines consistent with a
settlement with original plaintiffs:
 July 2, 2016 - The EPA must complete a round of designations for areas associated
with 68 EGUs in 24 states and any undesignated areas with violating monitors
(based on 2013-2015 data).
 December 31, 2017 - The EPA must complete an additional round of designations
for any area a state has not elected to monitor per the provisions of the DRR
starting January 1, 2017.
 December 31, 2020 - The EPA must complete all remaining designations (primarily
expected to be areas where states have elected to monitor per the provisions of
the DRR).
 Plaintiff states have appealed the March 2, 2015 court order, and in a
separate action, North Carolina has filed its own designations deadline
suit.
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2010 SO2 DESIGNATIONS DUE BY JULY 2, 2016 UNDER
COURT ORDER
 Includes areas with a monitored violation of the 2010 SO2
NAAQS (based on 2013-2015 data).
 Preliminarily (based on final 2012 – 2014 data):
 Chatham County, Georgia
 Hawaii County, Hawaii
 Iron County, Missouri
 Williams County, North Dakota
 Brown County, Wisconsin
 Carbon County, Wyoming
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2010 SO2 DESIGNATIONS DUE BY JULY 2, 2016 UNDER
COURT ORDER
 Includes areas where there are sources (electric power plants) that as of
March 2, 2015, have not been “announced for retirement,” and meet one
of the following emissions thresholds:
 16,000 tons of emitted in 2012 or
 2,600 tons of SO2 emitted in 2012 with an average emission rate of at least 0.45
pounds of SO2 per mmBtu.
 “Announced for Retirement”
 Any stationary source in the United States with a coal-fired unit that as of January
1, 2010, had a capacity of over five (5) megawatts (MW); and
 That has announced as of March 2, 2015, that it will cease burning coal at that unit
through a company public announcement, public utilities commission filing,
consent decree, public legal settlement, final state or federal permit filing, or other
similar means of communication.
 Yields 68 sources in 24 states.
25
SCHEDULE FOR COMPLETING 2010 SO2 NAAQS
DESIGNATIONS DUE BY JULY 2, 2016
Milestone
Court Order
Date
March 2, 2015
Impacted states may submit updated
recommendations and supporting information
for area designations to the EPA
No later than September 18, 2015
States requested to review any third party
information received by the EPA
The EPA notifies impacted states concerning
any intended modifications to their
recommendations (120-day letters)
No later than November 17, 2015
End of 30-day public comment period
On or about January 22, 2016, but absolutely no
later than 120 days prior to final designations
(March 2, 2016)
On or about March 4, 2016
Impacted states provide additional information
to demonstrate why an EPA modification is
inappropriate
On or about April 8, 2016
The EPA promulgates final SO2 area
designations (no later than 16 months from
Court Order)
No later than July 2, 2016
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UNCLASSIFIABLE DESIGNATIONS CONSIDERATIONS
 “Unclassifiable” = An area where the EPA cannot determine based on
available information whether the area is or is not meeting the 2010 SO2
NAAQS and whether the area contributes to a violation in a nearby area.
 See “Updated Guidance for Area Designations for the 2010 Primary Sulfur Dioxide
NAAQS”, Attachment 2, March 20, 2015.
 The SO2 DRR requires states to characterize air quality in any area
previously designated unclassifiable, in the same manner as it requires air
quality characterization for areas that have not yet been designated.
 Any additional information developed pursuant to the SO2 DRR for areas
initially designated unclassifiable, will be used to inform possible future
actions by the EPA or the state (e.g., to determine whether the area is
attaining or not attaining the standard, and possibly change the area’s
designation).
 Additional guidelines will be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
 See SO2 Data Requirements Rule – 80 FR 51052 page 51084 (August 21,
2015).
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