Enhancing Effort Supply with Prize-Augmenting Entry Fees: Theory and Experiments∗ Robert G. Hammond† Bin Liu‡ Jingfeng Lu§ Yohanes E. Riyanto¶ August 4, 2016 Abstract Entry fees are widely observed in contests. We study the effect of a prize-augmenting entry fee on expected total effort in an all-pay auction setting where the contestants’ abilities are private information. While an entry fee reduces equilibrium entry, it can enhance the entrants’ effort supply. Our theoretical model demonstrates that, at optimum, the entry fee must be strictly positive and finite. We design a laboratory experiment to empirically test the effect of entry fees on effort supply. Specifically, we compare an optimally set entry fee to no entry fee or a high entry fee. Our results provide strong support for the notion that a principal can elicit higher effort using an appropriately set entry fee to augment the prize purse. Keywords: All pay auction, Carrot and stick, Effort, Entry Fee, Prize allocation JEL classification: C91, D44, J41, L23 ∗ We acknowledge the Isaac Manasseh Meyer Fellowship, which funded Hammond’s visit to the National University of Singapore, where part of the work on this paper was completed. We also thank seminar participants at the International Industrial Organization Conference as well as Pia Weiss for comments and suggestions. † Department of Economics, North Carolina State University. Email: robert [email protected]. ‡ Department of Economics, National University of Singapore. Email: [email protected]. § Department of Economics, National University of Singapore. Email: [email protected]. ¶ Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University. Email: [email protected]. 1 1 Introduction Contests are observed in a wide range of environments such as labor markets, investments in research and development, political campaigns, advertising, lobbying, conflict, and sports, etc. In many situations, the goal of the contests is to elicit productive effort. For this purpose, the prize allocation rule has long been recognized as a major instrument that the contest organizer can use to enhance effort supply. In particular, the principle of “carrot and stick” has been long and widely followed in practice as a guideline for effective prize and penalty design to provide the right incentives to agents. In a contest setting, a positive prize can be viewed as a carrot, while a negative prize can be treated as a stick. In this paper, we study contest design by allowing both positive and negative prizes. Specifically, we study how a designer can use entry fee as an instrument to create negative prizes for losers and further enhance the positive prize for the winner, which would induce higher expected effort. We consider an all-pay auction with incomplete information, where the bidders’ abilities are their private information. The organizer can set an entry fee for each participant. The bidders simultaneously decide whether to participate, and how to bid if they decide to enter without observing the others’ entry and bidding decisions. Entry fees are added to the original prize purse, which will be awarded as a single winner prize to the contestant who exerts the highest effort. All losing participants win nothing but pay the entry fee, which is equivalent to a negative prize ex post. Bundling the sum of the revenue collected from awarding negative prizes into the reward paid as a positive prize has a number of empirical analogs. Sporting contests often require monetary payments to enter the contest and these entry fees are used to partly fund the prize paid to the winner. Examples from sports include registration fees for marathons and “buy-ins” in poker tournaments, both of which are required entry fees in order to compete that are then used as part of the prize purse. Outside the realm of sports, contests in the creative industries often require prizeaugmenting entry fees, including contests giving awards for best works of writing, photography, architecture, and design.1 1 Several contests explicitly mention that the entry fees are used to supplement the prize paid to the winner. Fredriksson (1993) discusses rodeos where the “entrance fees were added to the prize money.” In horse racing, https://www.toba.org/owner-education/entering-races.aspx says that the “sum of owners’ entry fees” are added to the prize purse. Concerning design contests, http://www.victoriastrauss.com/advice/contests says that contests “charge 2 The effect of an entry fee on effort supply is two-fold. On one hand, it discourages the low ability types from participating in the competition, which lowers their effort supply. On the other hand, entry fees enlarge the winner’s prize, which induces more effort from higher types. The total effect thus relies on the trade-off of these two effects. Our theoretical study shows that imposing an entry fee indeed enhances the effort supply of agents if it is set appropriately. We establish that the effort-maximizing entry fee must be strictly positive and finite. This result helps to explain why entry fees are widely observed in practice. We verify our theoretical predictions in a laboratory experiment. Our analysis focuses on the expected total effort of the contestants, which in our theoretical context is equivalent to the revenue raised by the contest designer. The experiment uses a 2x3 between-subject design, with treatment variation in the level of the entry fee and the degree of contestant heterogeneity. The entry fee E takes one of three values: no entry fee (E = 0), optimal entry fee (E = E ∗ ), and high entry fee (E = 3E ∗ ). We also vary the bounds of the marginal cost distribution [c, c], which affects the degree of heterogeneity among contestants. Using the uniform distribution, we consider two cases: low heterogeneity [c, c] = [1, 2] and high heterogeneity [c, c] = [1, 3]. Our experimental results strongly support our theoretical predictions. We find that revenue is the highest when the entry fee is set optimally and the prize is augmented with the total entry fees collected from the entrants. With low contestant heterogeneity, the revenue is 11.56% higher with the optimal entry fee than with no entry fee and 33.17% higher than with the high entry fee. With high heterogeneity, the corresponding revenue increases are 10.88% and 50.56%, respectively. When we consider the efficiency of the contest, with efficiency being defined as contests in which the lowest marginal cost wins the contest, we find that a higher contestant heterogeneity leads to higher efficiency rate. Finally, while theory predicts full entry into the contest with no entry fee, there is less than full entry in these treatments. In the positive entry fee treatments, we also find less than full entry by the contestants whose marginal cost is below the entry threshold (i.e., the high types) contrary to the theoretical prediction. Interestingly, in the positive entry fee treatments, we have excess entry by those contestants whose marginal cost is above the entry threshold (i.e., the low types). This is in contrast to the theory, which predicts that these contestants would not enter the a fee to fund the prize.” Finally, in the context of writing contests, https://www.freelancer.sg/feesandcharges says that entry fees “will be used to increase the contest prize,” while http://thewritelife.com/27-free-writing-contests/ says that entry fees are used as a “way of [growing] the prize purse for each contest.” 3 contest. We emphasize that entry fees play a different role in revenue-targeting auctions than they do in effort-eliciting contests. The seller in a revenue-generating auction keeps the entry fees collected as part of the revenue and the entry fee serves only as an instrument to control entry. Further, the well-known revenue equivalence theorem says that two mechanisms generate the same expected revenue given that they implement the same allocation and that the lowest type earns the same expected payoff. According to the revenue equivalence theorem, if the minimum winning type (i.e., the lowest type that wins the auction with positive probability) is higher than the lower bound of the value distribution, then a continuum of pairs of reserve price and entry fee would generate the same expected revenue in an all-pay auction. In particular, there is an optimal entry fee that would maximize revenue if there is no reserve price. However, zero entry fee is optimal if the lowest winning type equals the lower bound of bidders’ values regardless of the reserve price. In our paper, we study whether an entry fee would generate higher expected effort. Entry fees augment the prize purse to induce more effort from the entrants of different types, in addition to controlling entry. It is thus less clear that a prize-augmenting entry fee would induce higher effort given that it discourages entry, especially for a type distribution that must entail zero optimal entry fee in a revenue-generating auction. Nevertheless, we unambiguously establish that, regardless of the type distribution, a non-zero entry fee must be optimal in an effort-eliciting all-pay contest with incomplete information. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly surveys the related literature. Section 3 presents our theoretical model and its predictions. We then describe our experimental design and procedures in Section 4 and discuss our experimental results in Section 5. Section 6 concludes. 2 Related Literature Our paper belongs to the literature on optimal contest design with incomplete information. Optimal prize allocation has been studied in various all-pay auction frameworks starting from the seminal work of Moldovanu and Sela (2001). They establish winner-take-all as the optimal prize allocation rule when contestants’ effort function is linear or concave, while restricting prizes to be non-negative. They also establish that convex effort cost can invalidate the optimality of the 4 winner-take-all. Minor (2013) maintains the assumption of non-negative prizes and studies the optimal prize allocation rule when contestants have convex costs of effort or the contest designer has concave benefit of effort. Moldovanu and Sela (2006) generalize their earlier investigation to a two-stage all-pay auction framework. Meanwhile, Moldovanu, Sela, and Shi (2007) analyze the environment where contestants care about their relative status. They further allow for negative prizes in Moldovanu, Sela, and Shi (2012). In Moldovanu, Sela, and Shi (2012), a negative prize is costly for the organizer to implement. In our paper, when negative prizes are implemented for some contestants, the revenue collected, like in Fullerton and McAfee (1999), will be used by the organizer to reward other contestants. Thomas and Wang (2013) presents a model in which the highest bidding contestant wins a fixed prize (V ) and the lowest bidding contestant pays a fine (P ), with P < V . The contest designer sets the optimal level of fine P . Contestants must decide whether to participate in the contest. If there is only one bidder who participates in the contest, she will win the prize, but she also must pay the fine because her bid is both the highest and the lowest. Different from theirs, in our setup, all contestants must pay an entry fee, regardless of whether their bid is the lowest bid. The revenues collected from entry fees are then added onto the winning prize. Further, in our setup, contestants are heterogeneous in their marginal bidding cost. We know from the literature that greater cost heterogeneity discourages weaker contestants from competing (Schotter and Weigelt, 1992; Gradstein, 1995; Clark and Riis, 1998). This discouragement effect may reduce effort. Counter to this negative effect, Moldovanu and Sela (2001) show that having multiple prizes encourages weaker contestants to participate. However, this also comes at a cost of inducing stronger contestants to lower their effort. Moldovanu and Sela (2001) show that, only when bidding costs are sufficiently convex, awarding multiple prizes may be optimal. Anderson and Stafford (2003) test and confirm this prediction in the lab. In their experimental design, contestants have differing cost of effort and must pay an entry fee to participate in the contest. The show that higher cost heterogeneity reduces the number of entrants and effort. Other studies have also produced similar results showing that a single prize generates higher effort than multiple prizes (Vandegrift, Yavas, and Brown, 2007; Sheremeta, 2011; Stracke, Höchtl, Kerschbamer, and Sunde, 2014; Cason, Masters, and Sheremeta, 2010). In our paper, we focus on the optimal design of entry fee in a setting where the total revenues 5 collected from entry fees would be used to boost the winning prize. The entry fee in our setup is analogous to a punishment and reward scheme, where the punishment is imposed on all contestants and the augmented reward is given to the winning contestant. Similar to the existing literature, the presence of cost heterogeneity in our setup reduces weaker contestants’ incentive to compete and induces stronger contestant to bid less aggressively. The presence of entry fee will reduce the incentive of weaker contestants further. However, augmenting the prize incentivizes stronger contestants to exert higher effort. We show that when entry fee is optimally set, the incentive effect on stronger contestants outweighs the discouragement effect on weaker contestants. Note that the entry fee in our setup essentially works as an endogenous participation constraint. Instead of using entry fee to create the participation constraint, Megidish and Sela (2013) use the minimal effort constraint in which a contestant is only allowed to participate if her effort exceeds the minimal effort constraint. The minimal effort constraint works in a similar fashion as the entry fee in our setup. Further, Megidish and Sela (2013) consider two alternative prize allocation schemes. The first one is the winner-take-all scheme and the second one is the random allocation scheme. With the random allocation scheme, all contestants who exert efforts that exceed the minimal effort constraint has an equal chance to win the prize. They show that the random prize allocation scheme induces greater participation from contestants. The increase in the number of participants could offset the reduction in effort due to the discouragement effect. They show that the random prize allocation scheme could potentially be superior than the winner-take-all allocation scheme. In our paper, we design a lab experiment to test the predictions of our prize-augmenting entry fee scheme on the total expected effort. The question is whether this scheme creates a strong enough incentive for stronger contestants to exert high effort, such that it outweighs the loss from weaker contestants who are less likely to enter the contest because of entry fee. Our paper thus contributes to the growing experimental literature on contests; see Dechenaux, Kovenock, and Sheremeta (2014) for the most comprehensive literature survey on experimental research on contests to date. 3 Theoretical Model with Incomplete Information We consider an all-pay auction in which the player with the highest effort wins a single prize. There are N (≥ 2) potential bidders whose marginal bidding costs are their private information. 6 Every bidder i’s marginal bidding cost ci is identically and independently distributed on interval [c, c] with a cumulative distribution function F (·) and a density function f (·). Type c is thus the most efficient type. The auction has an initial fixed prize V , and the organizer can set an entry fee E that is collected from entrants to augment the initial prize. Therefore, when there are n entrants, then the total prize will be Vn = V + nE, n = 0, 1, 2, ..., N . Entrants make their bid simultaneously without observing the number of actual bidders. The highest bid among n (≥ 1) entrants then wins the single prize Vn . If there is no entrant, the organizer keeps the initial prize. A positive entry fee E induces endogenous symmetric entry, which can be denoted by an entry threshold ĉ ∈ [c, c]. Only the more efficient types with ci ≤ ĉ would pay the entry fee and participate in the auction. Given monotonicity of the entrants’ symmetric bidding strategy, an entrant with the threshold type (i.e., type ĉ) wins if and only if she is the only entrant. In this case, she wins V1 = V + E with probability [1 − F (ĉ)]N −1 , and must pay the entry fee E. In addition, his equilibrium bid must be b(ĉ) = 0 in an all pay auction. Therefore, we must have [1 − F (ĉ)]N −1 [V + E] = E, which leads to the following lemma. Lemma 1. With entry fee E, the symmetric entry threshold is ĉ = F −1 [1 − ( 1 E ) N −1 ] ∈ (c, c], ∀E ≥ 0. V +E Note that ĉ decreases with E. In particular, when E = 0, we have ĉ = c, i.e., every type participates. We next derive the monotone equilibrium bidding strategy b(c), ∀c ≤ ĉ. Consider a representative bidder, say bidder 1. Suppose the other bidders i = 2, 3, ..., N adopt the equilibrium entry threshold ĉ, and hypothetical bidding strategy b(c). If bidder 1 enters and announces a type c0 ≤ ĉ 7 when his true type is c ≤ ĉ, then his expected payoff is N −1 X π1 (c0 , c) = n=0 N −1 X = n n (N −1)−n CN [1 − −1 F (ĉ) [1 − F (ĉ)] F (c0 ) n ] Vn+1 − b(c0 )c − E F (ĉ) n (N −1)−n CN [F (ĉ) − F (c0 )]n Vn+1 − b(c0 )c − E. −1 [1 − F (ĉ)] n=0 Together with the first order condition for optimal bid, truth telling (i.e., c0 = c at optimum) in equilibrium implies N −1 X ∂π1 (c0 , c) n (N −1)−n 0 | = −f (c) CN n[F (ĉ) − F (c)]n−1 Vn+1 − b0 (c)c = 0. c =c −1 [1 − F (ĉ)] ∂c0 n=1 We thus have N −1 f (c) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ)](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ) − F (c)]n−1 Vn+1 , b (c) = − c 0 n=1 with boundary condition b(ĉ) = 0. We thus obtain the solution of b(c), as shown in the following proposition. Proposition 1. With entry fee E, the symmetric bidding strategy of entrants is Z ĉ(E) b(c; E) = c N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 dt, ∀c ≤ ĉ(E). t n=1 Using the entry equilibrium in Lemma 1 and bidding equilibrium in Proposition 1, we can derive the equilibrium expected total effort as follows. Corollary 1. With entry fee E, the equilibrium expected total effort is Z T E(E) = N c ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt, t n=1 1 N −1 ]. where ĉ(E) = F −1 [1 − ( V E +E ) Proof. See Appendix A. The focus of this paper is how a prize-augmenting entry fee can enhance effort supply in an all 8 pay auction. With the above results, we are ready to carry out this analysis. Proposition 2. The optimal entry fee must be positive. Proof. See Appendix A. The following proposition further shows that the optimal level of entry fee is finite. Proposition 3. The optimal entry fee must be finite. Proof. See Appendix A. Now we use N = 2 to illustrate the effect of the entry fee on the bidding function and the expected total effort elicited. Assume that the marginal cost of exerting effort ci follows the uniform distribution with support [1, 2], so that F (t) = t − 1 and f (t) = 1, t ∈ [1, 2]. For simplicity, let V = 1. Then according to Proposition 1, the bidding function is Z b(c; E) = (1 + 2E) c ĉ(E) 1 dt = (1 + 2E)(ln ĉ(E) − ln c), ∀c ≤ ĉ(E), t where ĉ(E) = 2+E . 1+E Further, by Corollary 1, the expected total effort is Z T E(E) = 2(1 + 2E) 1 ĉ(E) t−1 dt t = 2(1 + 2E)(ĉ(E) − 1 − ln ĉ(E)) = 2(1 + 2E)( 1 2+E − ln ). 1+E 1+E Notice that ∂ ∂b(c; E) 2 ( )=− , ∂E ∂c c which implies that the absolute value of the slope of the bidding function is increasing in the level of entry fee given that c ≤ ĉ(E). This leads to the central trade-off of introducing entry fee: on the one hand, the introduction of entry fee enlarges the grand prize awarded to the most able entrant, so that the entrant bids more aggressively when entry fee becomes larger; on the other hand, higher 9 entry fee dampens the entry incentive of the high cost contestants, so that ex ante the expected number of entrants is smaller. Since the expected total effort depends on both the bidding behavior and the entry incentive, these two conflicting effects are the trade-off the organizer faces. According to Proposition 2 and 3, when the entry fee is small enough, the former effect dominates the latter one; while when the entry fee is large enough, the latter effect dominates. The goal is to balance these two effects. Figure 1 illustrates how the bidding functions vary with the magnitude of entry fee. [INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE] It draws the bidding function when E = 0, 0.5, and 1, respectively. Notice that the absolute value of the slope of the bidding function is increasing in the magnitude of entry fee. Though higher entry fee induces more aggressive bidding from the entrants, it also discourages entry. Figure 2 further illustrates how the total effort elicited varies with the level of entry fee. [INSERT FIGURE 2 HERE] As can be seen from the above figure, the total effort first rises when entry fee increases, and then it descends when the entry fee further increases. The optimal entry fee E ∗ ≈ 0.242. 4 Experimental Design In this section we outline our experimental design and procedure. The experiment has N = 2 potential contestants. We set different possible parameter values for the bound of the marginal cost distribution of the contestants [c, c] and the prize value V , then simulated the models to derive the entry threshold b c, optimal bid b (b c), expected total effort T E, and optimal entry fee E ∗ that maximizes the expected total effort T E. We assumed that the marginal cost of the contestants is drawn from a uniform distribution over [c, c]. 4.1 The Experimental Design Based on the simulation results, we chose parameter values for our experiment that would be sufficiently intuitive to implement in our experiment. To this end, we set the prize value V = 100. 10 We interpreted the bound of the marginal cost of the contestants [c, c] as the degree of heterogeneity of the contestants. The marginal cost is private information of the contestants. We considered two bounds of [c, c] which we coined as the low and the high contestant heterogeneity. In the former we set [c, c] = [1, 2] and in the latter we set [c, c] = [1, 3]. Under the low contestant heterogeneity, the entry threshold b cL can be derived as b cL = 200 + 100E , 100 + E while under the high contestant heterogeneity the entry threshold b cH is b cH = 300 + 100E . 100 + E Contestants with the marginal cost higher than the entry threshold would not enter the contest. Given the entry thresholds b cL and b cH , we can solve for the equilibrium bid b (b c) as respectively b (b cL ) = (V + 2E) ln 200 + 100E 100 + E − ln c , ∀c ≤ b cL , 300 + 100E b (b cH ) = (V + 3E) ln − ln c , ∀c ≤ b cH . 100 + E Next, we derived the expected total effort T E, which would be a function of the entry fee E. The optimal entry fee E ∗ that maximizes T E can then be calculated. They are respectively EL∗ = 24.170, ∗ EH = 40.393. In addition to varying the degree of contestant heterogeneity, we also varied the level of entry fee E. Our baseline treatment is a treatment where the optimal entry fee is set optimally at E = E ∗ . We benchmarked this baseline treatment against the other two treatments with no entry fee (E = 0) and the high entry fee (E = 3E ∗ ). Relative to E = E ∗ , both E = 0 and E = 3E ∗ should generate a lower T E. All in all, we have 2x3 treatment variations. The following table summarizes our treatment 11 variations. In each treatment cell, we present the entry threshold (b c), the optimal bid (b∗ ) and the expected total effort (T E). It can be seen that, conditional on the bound of the marginal cost, the entry threshold (b c) is decreasing in the level of entry fee (E). [INSERT TABLE 1 HERE] We employed a between-subject experimental design. In our analysis, we divide these treatments into two comparison groups. Treatments 1 (Zero Entry Fee, Low Heterogeneity), 2 (Optimal Entry Fee, Low Heterogeneity), and 3 (High Entry Fee, Low Heterogeneity) would form the first comparison group. These treatments are characterized by the presence of a low degree of contestant heterogeneity. The second comparison group consists of Treatments 4 (Zero Entry Fee, High Heterogeneity), 5 (Optimal Entry Fee, High Heterogeneity), and 6 (High Entry Fee, High Heterogeneity); all of them have a high degree of contestant heterogeneity. Our main goal is to validate our theoretical result showing the optimality of augmenting the contest prize with the entry fee collected from the contestants. As was mentioned previously, augmenting the contest prize with the entry fee is equivalent to imposing ex-post punishment on the losing contestant and giving ex-post reward to the winning contestant. Based on our theoretical model, we should expect that there will be full entry into the contest when entry fee is absent (E = 0). However, in the presence of entry fee, only contestants with the marginal cost lower than the entry threshold would participate in the contest. The probability of participation should be decreasing in the magnitude of entry fee and in our experiment it will be the lowest when E = 3E ∗ . The contest designer’s goal is to maximize the contest revenue and in our context, maximizing the contest revenue is equivalent to maximizing the expected total effort (T E) exerted by the contestants. 4.2 The Experimental Procedure Our subjects were recruited from the population of undergraduate students at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore. They came from various majors such as science, engineering, business, economics, arts and humanities, and social sciences. The recruitment information was distributed through the university-level mass email system. We had in total 144 subjects. The 12 number of subjects in each treatment varied. For each treatment, with the exception of Treatment 5, we conducted 1 experimental session. For Treatment 5,we conducted two experimental sessions because the first session had only 14 subjects. The second session had 22 more subjects. No subjects participated in more than one treatment. Table 2 below gives a summary of the number of subjects and the gender composition of the subjects in each treatment. [INSERT TABLE 2 HERE] Our experiment was programmed using z-Tree (Fischbacher, 2007). At the beginning of each session, the subjects were given a random six digit numerical user ID as their identifier throughout the experiment. The subjects were randomly rematched in every period. They went through 30 periods of interactions conducted using the computer interface, but they were not told in advance the total number of periods they would have to go through to minimize the end-game effect. The duration of the experiment was approximately 2 hours. At the beginning of the experiment, written instructions were distributed to the subjects and were read aloud by the experimenter to ensure that the subjects had common knowledge about the experiment.2 Subsequently, the subjects were then given 2 trial periods to gain familiarity with the experimental interface and to ensure that they understood the experimental instructions. They were told that the payoff from these trial periods would be excluded from the determination of their final earnings. At the end of the experiment, 5 periods were randomly selected out of 30 periods and their final earnings were the sum of the payoffs they earned in these 5 periods. The payoffs were denominated in experimental currency units (ECUs). To cover the bidding cost, the subjects were provided with a checkbook of 200 ECU at the beginning of every period. Each subject’s payoff from a period will be her checkbook amount in that period minus the bidding cost incurred and the winning prize obtained if she wins the contest in that period. Notice that a subject can earn 200 ECU in every period (1000 ECU in total). To incentivize subjects to participate in the contest rather than to sit out and simply earn 1000 ECU, we adopted a two-part payment-conversion scheme. That is, 2 The complete experiment instructions are available in Appendix B. 13 when the final earnings was less than 1000 ECU, the subjects earned S$ 1 for every 150 ECU. For earnings above 1000 ECU, the subjects earned S$ 1 for every 25 ECU. After the contest game had been completed, the subjects were required to answer a riskelicitation survey using the multiple price-list procedure of Holt and Laury (2002). On average the subjects earned between 20 ECU to 30 ECU from the Holt-Laury procedure. Subsequently, subjects were given 10 quantitative questions to measure their quantitative aptitude. They earned 5 ECU for every correct answer and 0 ECU for every wrong (or blank) answer. On average the subjects earned 25 ECU from this part. Following the quantitative questions, subjects were asked to answer a post-experiment questionnaire. The conversion rate for the Holt-Laury elicitation and the quantitative task was S$ 1 for every 10 ECU. The subjects were also given a show-up fee of S$ 2. However, when the total earnings of a subject was less than S$ 8 (around US$ 6), we gave the subject an additional S$ 2 lump-sum fee at the end of the experiment. We did not, however, tell subjects about this at the beginning of the experiment to avoid any perverse incentive effect. This additional show-up fee was given to make the payment to this low earning subject commensurate with the 2 hours spent in our experiment.3 This was done so as not to discourage these subjects from participating in other future experiments at the lab. After considering all payment components, the average total earnings per subject was around S$ 21 (around US$ 16). 5 Results from the Lab Our main concern is the revenue raised by the principal. As the contest structure augments the prize purse with the entry fees paid by entrants, revenue is equal to the sum of all bids entered. The analysis first considers aggregate results at the treatment level, then moves to results at the level of an individual subject. 5.1 Aggregate Results The first column of Table 3 as well as Figures 3 and 5 provide several looks at the revenue earned by the principal in each treatment. Table 3 shows treatment-level means, while the figures 3 The payment for 1 hour part-time job in Singapore is around S$ 8. 14 plot CDFs of revenue. Results are shown separately for treatments with low and high contestant heterogeneity, that is, marginal costs that either vary between one and two or between one and three. In each set of results, we ask whether the optimal entry fee induces more total effort (i.e., higher bids) than either no entry fee or an entry fee that is three times larger than the optimal entry fee. Given that we expect (and find) substantial overbidding that is ameliorated but not eliminated by learning, we also repeat the analysis for the final 10 periods out of a total of 30 periods. Panel B of Table 3 as well as Figures 4 and 6 show the results that account for learning. [INSERT FIGURE 3 HERE] [INSERT FIGURE 4 HERE] [INSERT FIGURE 5 HERE] [INSERT FIGURE 6 HERE] [INSERT TABLE 3 HERE] Overall, the findings strongly support our hypotheses concerning the optimality of a properly set entry fee. From Column (1) of Table 3’s Panel A, with low contestant heterogeneity, revenue is 11.56% higher with an optimal entry fee than with no entry fee and 33.17% higher than with a high entry fee. With high contestant heterogeneity, the corresponding increases are 10.88% and 50.56%. All differences are quantitatively large and statistically meaningful.4 Moving to Panel B, with low contestant heterogeneity, the increased revenue raised from an optimally set entry fee is smaller when only the final 10 periods are considered relative to no entry fee but the increase is larger relative to a high entry fee. The opposite changes are seen with high contestant heterogeneity. Overall though, the only meaningful difference once subject learning is accounted for is in the comparison of the optimal entry fee and no entry fee when contestant heterogeneity is low, where the difference is statistically insignificant when only considering the final 10 periods (z-statistic = 0.57, p-value = 0.57). However, Figures 3 and 4 jointly suggest that, with low contestant heterogeneity, an optimally set entry fee has a meaningful revenue advantage over no entry fee, with the primary difference 4 We test for statistically significant differences using a Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank-sum test. The corresponding test results for the above comparisons are as follows: z-statistics of 2.99, 5.53, 2.53, and 8.41 with p-values of 0.00, 0.00, 0.01 and 0.00, respectively. 15 between the results from all 30 periods and the final 10 periods coming in terms of probability of entry. Broadly, Figures 3 and 4 show that the optimal entry fee is raising more revenue than the other treatments, with a substantial portion of contests raising more revenue than the prize purse itself of 100 points. Note that all pairwise comparisons of the CDFs reject distributional equality using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and a 10% significance level; specifically, in the final 10 periods, testing the CDF of revenue from the optimal entry fee against the CDF of revenue from zero entry fee is weakly statistically significant (D-statistic = 0.16, p-value = 0.10). Further, in Figures 5 and 6, we find that the revenue dominance of the optimally set entry fee is larger when contestant heterogeneity is high than when it is low and the dominance remains large when considering only the final 10 periods. As with low contestant heterogeneity, pairwise Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests reject that the revenue distributions are equal. Moving to the other outcomes of interest in Table 3, Column (2) provides the treatment-level mean efficiency rate of the contests, where a contest is efficient if the contestant with the lowest marginal cost wins. There are conflicting patterns regarding efficiency as the entry fee increases when considering all 30 periods but the differences are much smaller when only the final 10 periods are used in the analysis. Both with low and high contestant heterogeneity, the optimal entry fee treatment has the lowest efficiency rate but the differences are small relative to the standard error. As a result, we do not infer much about how efficiency varies with the entry fee, beyond noting that high contestant heterogeneity increases efficiency. Finally, Columns (3) and (4) consider entry into the contests, where Column (3) shows the mean number of entrants and Column (4) shows the difference between this mean and the number of entrants predicted by our theoretical model, that is, the number of excess entrants. Consistent with our intuition, for a given level of contestant heterogeneity, entry decreases as the entry fee increases. There is too little entry with no entry fee because theory predicts full entry, whereas our results suggest that a small number of contestants choose to stay out even in these treatments. Further, there is excess entry in all positive entry fee treatments, a finding that is stronger for a high entry fee and for the final 10 periods. 16 5.2 Individual-Level Results Next, we estimate two sets of regressions at the individual level and, as before, repeat the analysis only considering the final 10 periods to account for subject learning. The first set of results from this analysis is in Table 4, which presents conditional averages of bids and entry probabilities for each treatment. The bid estimation is an OLS regression that includes only those contestants who entered the contest, while the entry estimation is a Probit regression of whether the contestant entered. Standard errors are clustered at the subject-level to account for dependencies at the subject level.5 The results shown in Table 4 are conditional averages in the sense that the regressions control for a host of subject characteristics as well as the treatment in which the subject participated. We calculate post-estimation conditional means to present the average bid and entry probability for each treatment, holding observable characteristics constant. [INSERT TABLE 4 HERE] Column (1) of Table 4 shows that, conditional on entry, contestants bid meaningfully more when the entry fee is set optimally than when it is zero or when it is high. This result holds in both low and high contestant heterogeneity and whether all periods or only the final 10 periods are considered. All pairwise comparisons are statistically significant and the differences are large. Column (2) of Table 4 considers whether a contestant enters the contest and provides the intuitive confirmation that entry falls sharply when the entry fee increases. Again, all differences are large and statistically significant (each at the 1% significance level, with the exception of the comparison of the optimal and high entry fees with the final 10 periods, which is significant at the 10% significance level). Finally, Table 5 presents the full set of individual-level regressions of a contestant’s bid and entry probability, which are the same regressions that generated the conditional means discussed above. Here the treatment-level differences are shown relative to the zero entry fee treatment with low contestant heterogeneity. Further, we show the effects of the contestant’s marginal cost in that period, the period, and several subject characteristics. We investigate differences in bidding strategies among the following subject-level variables: probability test score (percent of questions 5 An alternative specification uses subject-level random effects within a panel-data regression model, that is, paneldata random-effects linear regression for bids and panel-data random-effects Probit regression for entry. These results are shown in Appendix C and are very similar to what is discussed below. See Tables B1 and B2. 17 correct on the post-experiment probability questionnaire), whether the subject has participated in previous economics experiments, whether the subject has previously taken a game theory course, whether the subject is risk averse, indicators for the subject’s year of study, indicators for the subject’s course of study, and whether the subject is female.6 Continuous variables (marginal cost, period, and probability test score) are each included along with a quadratic term but marginal effects at the mean are shown. For the estimation of the probability of entry, marginal effects of dummy variables are shown. [INSERT TABLE 5 HERE] Having already discussed the differences across treatments, we turn to the results on contest and subject characteristics. First, a marginal cost that is one unit higher reduces bids by more than 40 points and reduces entry by around 25 percentage points. Second, the effect of the period variable indicates that subjects learn to lower their bids to a moderate degree and to enter at a lower rate to a very small degree. For subject characteristics, demonstrating a better understanding of probability is correlated with lower bids and less entry, suggesting that some part of the overbidding we observe is driven by cognitive differences among subjects. Previous experimental experience and knowledge of game theory both lower entry probabilities but only previous experiments affect bids and only in the final 10 periods. Next, risk averse subjects bid more and enter at a lower rate, consistent with results from first-price winner-pays auction experiments. Age does not have a meaningful affect on bids or entry probabilities. Concerning a subject’s course of study, our results suggest a ranking of bids from lowest to highest on average as follows: business students, engineering, liberal arts (the omitted group), and science. Course of study affects entry probabilities as well, where business and engineering students enter more frequently. Finally, there is strong evidence that female subjects bid more and weak evidence that they enter at a higher rate. Concerning bidding behavior, several authors (including Chen, Katušcák, and Ozdenoren (2013) and Schipper (2014)) have found gender differences in bidding behavior in environments without endogenous entry. Our result on gender differences in bidding is consistent with the general pattern: female bidders bid in a way that results in lower profits for female bidders than male bidders. 6 Based on the multiple-price list risk elicitation of Holt and Laury (2002), a subject is considered risk averse who switches from the safe lottery to the risky lottery later than the fifth of ten rows. 18 6 Conclusions Contests are an important class of performance evaluation mechanisms. We introduce a new contest format and consider its theoretical and empirical properties. Contestants whose abilities are their private information can choose to pay an entry fee to participate in a contest where the initial prize is augmented with the sum of entrants’ entry fees. Our theoretical analysis shows that the principal can induce higher effort by setting a positive and finite entry fee. The optimal entry fee balances the entry-discouraging effect of an entry fee with the incentive effect of a larger prize (due to the prize-augmenting entry fee). Our experimental results confirm the revenue advantage of the optimal entry fee relative to no entry fee or a high entry fee. These results are consistent with observed practice in the sense that entry fees are widely observed in contests in the field. 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Brown (2007): “Incentive effects and overcrowding in tournaments: An experimental analysis,” Experimental Economics, 10(4), 345–368. 21 Figure 1: Bidding Functions as a Function of the Entry Fee Figure 2: Total Effort as a Function of the Entry Fee 22 1 Cumulative Probability .4 .6 .8 .2 0 0 100 200 300 Sum of Bids Zero Entry Fee Optimal Entry Fee High Entry Fee 0 .2 Cumulative Probability .4 .6 .8 1 Figure 3: CDFs of Revenue in Low Heterogeneity Treatments, All 30 Periods 0 50 Zero Entry Fee 100 Sum of Bids 150 Optimal Entry Fee 200 High Entry Fee Figure 4: CDFs of Revenue in Low Heterogeneity Treatments, Final 10 Periods 23 1 Cumulative Probability .4 .6 .8 .2 0 0 50 100 150 Sum of Bids Zero Entry Fee 200 Optimal Entry Fee 250 High Entry Fee 0 .2 Cumulative Probability .4 .6 .8 1 Figure 5: CDFs of Revenue in High Heterogeneity Treatments, All 30 Periods 0 50 Zero Entry Fee 100 Sum of Bids Optimal Entry Fee 150 200 High Entry Fee Figure 6: CDFs of Revenue in High Heterogeneity Treatments, Final 10 Periods 24 Table 1: Summary of Experimental Treatments Entry Fee Zero Entry Fee Optimal Entry Fee (E = 0) (E = E ∗ ) Treatment 1 Treatment 2 High Entry Fee (E = 3E ∗ ) Treatment 1 Low Heterogeneity [c, c] = [1, 2] E=0 b c=2 b∗ = 30.6853 T E = 61.3706 Treatment 3 E = 24.1704 b c = 1.8053 b∗ = 31.8329 T E = 63.6658 Treatment 4 E = 72.5112 b c = 1.5797 b∗ = 30.0042 T E = 60.0084 Treatment 5 High Heterogeneity [c, c] = [1, 3] E=0 b c=3 b∗ = 22.5347 T E = 45.0694 E = 40.3925 b c = 2.4246 b∗ = 24.3572 T E = 48.7144 E = 121.1775 b c = 1.9043 b∗ = 22.2670 T E = 44.5340 Notes: Column (1) denotes the two (2) variations in the range of the marginal biding cost, which we call low and high cost heterogeneity, respectively. Row (1) denotes the three (3) variations in the entry fees, namely zero entry fee, optimal entry fee, and high entry fee. In each cell shown in the table, we provide the magnitude of entry fee (E), the entry threshold (b c), the equilibrium bid ∗ (b ), and the total effort (T E). 25 26 (1) 22 59% Notes: Shown are the number of subjects and the proportion of female subjects in each treatment: (1) zero entry fee and low heterogeneity, (2) optimal entry fee and low heterogeneity, (3) high entry fee and low heterogeneity, (4) zero entry fee and high heterogeneity, (5) optimal entry fee and high heterogeneity, and (6) high entry fee and high heterogeneity. No. of Subjects % of Female Table 2: Experimental Subjects, Including the Gender Composition Treatments Low Heterogeneity High Heterogeneity [c, c] = [1, 2] [c, c] = [1, 3] (2) (3) (3) (4) (5) 20 22 22 36 22 35% 36% 55% 50% 59% Table 3: Treatment-Level Summary Statistics Panel A: All 30 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet (1) Sum of Bids (2) Efficiency (3) Entrants (4) Excess Entrants 94.848 (3.166) 107.375 (3.350) 79.479 (3.249) 73.459 (2.309) 83.392 (2.224) 55.900 (2.040) 0.594 (0.027) 0.677 (0.027) 0.670 (0.026) 0.715 (0.025) 0.663 (0.020) 0.779 (0.023) 1.930 (0.015) 1.637 (0.031) 1.282 (0.036) 1.803 (0.023) 1.561 (0.026) 1.412 (0.036) -0.070 (0.015) 0.017 (0.037) 0.197 (0.043) -0.197 (0.023) 0.107 (0.033) 0.512 (0.039) (1) Sum of Bids (2) Efficiency (3) Entrants (4) Excess Entrants 87.159 (4.908) 90.646 (6.018) 60.533 (5.089) 61.330 (3.346) 79.392 (3.797) 56.472 (3.702) 0.664 (0.045) 0.630 (0.049) 0.645 (0.046) 0.745 (0.042) 0.706 (0.034) 0.736 (0.042) 1.973 (0.016) 1.650 (0.052) 1.327 (0.059) 1.782 (0.040) 1.528 (0.046) 1.409 (0.064) -0.027 (0.016) 0.100 (0.064) 0.245 (0.074) -0.218 (0.040) 0.156 (0.058) 0.536 (0.072) Panel B: Final 10 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet Notes: Column (1) shows the mean revenue raised in the contest, that is, the sum of the bids entered. Column (2) shows the proportion of contests in which the lowest cost type wins the contest. Column (3) shows the number of entrants, out of two, to the contest. Column (4) shows the number of entrants minus the number of contestants who are predicted by theory to enter. For this and subsequent tables, standard errors are shown in parentheses. 27 Table 4: Conditional Means of Bids and Probability of Entry for Each Treatment Panel A: All 30 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) 49.136 (5.025) 65.606 (3.432) 62.005 (3.553) 40.742 (3.744) 53.419 (2.616) 39.586 (2.044) 0.965 (0.009) 0.822 (0.028) 0.642 (0.047) 0.898 (0.030) 0.776 (0.031) 0.708 (0.033) (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) 44.182 (5.699) 54.937 (4.776) 45.607 (5.443) 34.420 (3.722) 51.966 (3.198) 40.077 (2.605) 0.986 (0.007) 0.828 (0.034) 0.662 (0.060) 0.886 (0.040) 0.765 (0.038) 0.708 (0.045) Panel B: Final 10 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet Notes: For each treatment, column (1) shows the mean bid, conditional on entering the contest, and column (2) shows the mean probability of entering the contest. These results are post-estimation conditional means, which present the average bid and entry probability for each treatment, holding observable characteristics constant. The full regression specifications are shown in Table 5. 28 Table 5: Individual-Level Regression Results for Bids and Entry All 30 Periods Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet Marginal Cost Period Probability Test Score Past Experiments Had Game Theory Risk Averse Subject Subject’s Age Engineering Student Science Student Business Student Female Subject Observations Log Likelihood Final 10 Periods (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) (3) Bid if Enter (4) Pr(Entry) 13.572 (6.047)∗∗ 12.056 (5.943)∗∗ 2.930 (6.595) 16.582 (5.890)∗∗∗ -0.729 (6.172) -42.210 (1.855)∗∗∗ -0.572 (0.098)∗∗∗ -17.844 (5.975)∗∗∗ -4.575 (3.053) -0.971 (2.994) 2.227 (3.394) -1.093 (1.264) -2.359 (4.098) 5.781 (3.993) -10.825 (5.453)∗∗ 7.145 (3.328)∗∗ -0.202 (0.043)∗∗∗ -0.360 (0.053)∗∗∗ 0.024 (0.032) -0.073 (0.035)∗∗ -0.080 (0.041)∗ -0.267 (0.019)∗∗∗ -0.000 (0.001) -0.062 (0.077) -0.065 (0.032)∗∗ -0.070 (0.030)∗∗ -0.056 (0.030)∗ 0.005 (0.011) 0.051 (0.034) 0.001 (0.036) 0.038 (0.042) 0.023 (0.031) 11.001 (7.422) 3.921 (7.616) 5.677 (7.537) 21.696 (6.807)∗∗∗ 8.967 (7.472) -44.471 (2.552)∗∗∗ -0.342 (0.185)∗ -20.718 (7.447)∗∗∗ -9.201 (4.244)∗∗ 0.796 (3.503) -1.441 (3.959) -0.753 (1.276) -1.077 (5.105) 7.123 (5.214) -12.217 (6.195)∗ 7.533 (3.859)∗ -0.225 (0.051)∗∗∗ -0.379 (0.074)∗∗∗ -0.031 (0.039) -0.133 (0.040)∗∗∗ -0.127 (0.049)∗∗∗ -0.248 (0.023)∗∗∗ 0.002 (0.003) 0.037 (0.096) -0.040 (0.040) -0.074 (0.043)∗ -0.074 (0.036)∗∗ 0.011 (0.015) 0.075 (0.043)∗ -0.023 (0.048) 0.056 (0.056) 0.062 (0.039) 3455 -16,234.045 4320 -1,666.874 1154 -5,379.239 1440 -541.047 Notes: Column (1) displays marginal effects from an OLS regression of the contestant’s bid, conditional on entering the contest. Column (2) displays marginal effects from a Probit regression of whether the contestant entered the contest. ∗, ∗∗, and ∗ ∗ ∗ denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively. 29 Appendix A Proofs Proof of Corollary 1. The expected total effort as a function of entry fee E is T E(E) Z c b(c; E)f (c)dc = N c Z ĉ(E) Z ĉ(E) = N c Z c ĉ(E) Z ĉ(E) = N c = N f (t) t n=1 N −1 X n (N −1)−n CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)f (c)dtdc −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=1 N −1 t f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)f (c)dcdt t c c n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt. t c n=1 Z = N c N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)dtf (c)dc t ĉ(E) Z Proof of Proposition 2. From T E(E) in Corollary 1, we have T E 0 (E) N Z ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n(n + 1)[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 F (t)dt = t c n=1 N −1 X n f (ĉ(E)) n (N −1)−n + CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (ĉ(E))]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (ĉ(E)) −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] ĉ(E) n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n − CN −1 (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−2 f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt t c n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 o f (t) X n + CN −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−1 f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt ĉ0 (E). t c n=1 It suffices to show that the limit of the above expression is strictly positive when E → 0. Because the first integral is strictly positive, showing that that limit of the sum of other terms is positive 30 when E → 0 completes the proof. These terms are = β(E) −1 n f (ĉ(E)) NX ĉ(E) Z ĉ(E) n=1 N −1 X f (t) t − c Z n (N −1)−n CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (ĉ(E))]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (ĉ(E)) −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] ĉ(E) f (t) t + c n=1 N −1 X n N −n−2 CN f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt −1 (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] o n N −n−1 n−2 CN (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)] V (E)F (t)dt ĉ0 (E). n+1 −1 n=1 Recall that Vn+1 (E) = V + nE. We thus have β(E) N −1 f (ĉ(E)) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (ĉ(E))]n−1 [V + (n + 1)E]F (ĉ(E))ĉ0 (E) = ĉ(E) n=1 −1 n Z ĉ(E) f (t) NX n N −n−1 + CN (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 F (t)dt −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] t c n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 o X f (t) n N −n−2 n−1 CN (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)] F (t)dt V ĉ0 (E) − −1 t c n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n + CN −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−1 Eĉ0 (E)f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 F (t)dt t c n=1 Z ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n − { CN −1 (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−2 t c n=1 0 Eĉ (E)f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 F (t)}dt. 1 N −1 ]. We thus have Recall that ĉ(E) = F −1 [1 − ( V E +E ) 1 0 ĉ (E) = − −1 V N −1 (V E +E ) (V +E)2 1 N −1 )) f (F −1 (1 − ( V E +E ) . We first show that lim Eĉ0 (E) = 0. E→0 31 (1) This is true because lim Eĉ0 (E) = E→0 1 E 1 lim ( ) N −1 = 0. f (c)V E→0 V + E Note that limE→0 ĉ(E) = c, and limE→0 F (ĉ(E)) = 1. Since (1) is true, we have lim Eĉ0 (E)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]n = 0, ∀n ≥ 0. E→0 (2) We thus have that the limit of the last two terms in β(E) is zero, i.e., ĉ(E) Z lim E→0 c N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−1 Eĉ0 (E)f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 F (t)dt = 0, t n=1 and ĉ(E) Z lim E→0 c N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 (N −1−n)[1−F (ĉ(E))]N −n−2 Eĉ0 (E)f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E))−F (t)]n−1 F (t)dt = 0. t n=1 We now show that the second term in β(E) is zero, i.e., ĉ(E) nZ c Z − c ĉ(E) N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −n−1 f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 F (t)dt t f (t) t n=1 N −1 X o n N −n−2 n−1 CN (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] f (ĉ(E))n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)] F (t)dt V ĉ0 (E) −1 n=1 = 0. This is true because N −1 X = n=1 N −2 X n N −n−2 CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 −1 (N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] n N −n−2 CN [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 −1 n(N − 1 − n)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=1 = (N − 1)(N − 2) N −2 X n−1 N −n−2 CN [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 −3 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=1 = (N − 1)(N − 2){[1 − F (ĉ(E))] + [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]}N −3 = (N − 1)(N − 2)[1 − F (t)]N −3 , 32 and N −1 X = n=1 N −1 X n N −n−1 CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 −1 (n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] n N −n−1 CN [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 −1 n(n − 1)[1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=2 = (N − 1)(N − 2) N −1 X n−2 N −n−1 CN [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−2 −3 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=2 = (N − 1)(N − 2)[1 − F (t)]N −3 . Recall limE→0 F (ĉ(E)) = 1. Based on the above results, we have lim β(E) E→0 = N −1 f (ĉ(E)) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (ĉ(E))]n−1 [V + (n + 1)E]F (ĉ(E))ĉ0 (E) E→0 ĉ(E) lim n=1 = = = f (ĉ(E)) 1 CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −2 (V + 2E)F (ĉ(E))ĉ0 (E) ĉ(E) 1 (N − 1) E lim [1 − F (ĉ(E))]N −2 ( ) N −1 −1 E→0 c V +E N −2 1 E E N −1 (N − 1) lim ( ) N −1 ( ) N −1 −1 = > 0. E→0 V + E c V +E c lim E→0 This completes the proof. 33 Proof of Proposition 3. Recall that Z ĉ(E) T E(E) = N c N −1 f (t) X n CN −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))](N −1)−n n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E)F (t)dt, t n=1 1 N −1 ]. The above term is strictly positive. Further notice that where ĉ(E) = F −1 [1 − ( V E +E ) N −1 X n (N −1)−n CN n[F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E) −1 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=1 = (N − 1) < (N − 1) N −1 X n=1 N −1 X n−1 (N −1)−n CN [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 Vn+1 (E) −2 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n−1 (N −1)−n [F (ĉ(E)) − F (t)]n−1 VN (E) CN −2 [1 − F (ĉ(E))] n=1 = (N − 1)[1 − F (t)]N −2 VN (E) ≤ (N − 1)VN (E). To show that the optimal entry fee is finite, it suffices to show that limE→∞ T E(E) = 0. To this end, note that Z ĉ(E) 0 < T E(E) < N (N − 1)VN (E) c < N (N − 1)VN (E) c f (t) F (t)dt t ĉ(E) Z f (t)F (t)dt = c N (N − 1)VN (E)F 2 (ĉ(E)) . 2c Thus, we need to show that lim EF 2 (ĉ(E)) = 0. E→∞ If we can show that lim EF (ĉ(E)) < M, E→∞ where M is some finite number, then (3) holds. In fact, recall that F ((ĉ(E)) = 1 − ( 34 1 E ) N −1 . V +E (3) Thus, lim EF (ĉ(E)) E→∞ 1 = = lim N −1 1 − (V E +E ) 1 E 1 −1 E V 1 N −1 ( ) N −1 V +E (V +E)2 lim 1 E→∞ E2 E→∞ 1 V E2 1 E ( ) N −1 −1 E→∞ N − 1 V + E (V + E)2 V = . N −1 = lim This completes the proof. Appendix B Experimental Instructions 35 General Instructions Thank you for participating in this study! Please pay attention to the information provided here and make your decisions carefully. If at any time you have questions to ask, please raise your hand and an experimenter will come to you. Please do not communicate with other participants at any point in this study. Failure to adhere to this rule would force us to stop this experiment and you will be asked to leave the experiment without pay. All information collected will be kept strictly confidential and used for the sole purpose of this study. Specific Stage-by-Stage Instructions We estimate the total duration of this study to be approximately 1.5 hours. All incentives will be denominated in experimental dollars (expressed as ECU), which will be added to and subtracted from the balance in your “checkbook” as the experiment progresses. The final amount of experimental dollars in your checkbook at the end of the experiment’s money-earning stages will be converted to real dollars using the following conversion rule: 1. For the amount of ECU earned in Stage 2 and Stage 3, 10 ECU = $ 1 2. For the payoff earned in Stage 1: If your final payoff in Stage 1 1000 ECU: 150 ECU = $ 1 If your final payoff in Stage 1 1000 ECU, it is split into a base part and a bonus part, where o Base part = 1000 ECU. The conversion rate for the base part is 150 ECU = $ 1 o Bonus part = your final payoff – base part. The conversion rate for the bonus part is 25 ECU = $ 1 For example if you earn 1500 ECU in Stage 1, you will receive 1000 150 $6.67 500 25 $20 $26.67 The real-dollar equivalent of your final earning will then be round up to the nearest dollar. It will be added to your show-up/ completion fee and paid to you in SGD. The exact amount of the show-up/ completion fee will be determined at the end of the experiment. The maximum fee you will receive is $5 and the minimum fee you will receive is $2. You will participate in the following stages: 36 Stage 1 You will interact with other participants anonymously through the computer interface for a number of periods. Each participant will only be identified by his or her unique numerical ID displayed on the participant's computer screen throughout the experiment. In each period, you will be randomly matched with another participant to form a pair. You and the other participant will compete against each other in a bidding contest to win prize money (V), which equals 100 ECU. You and your opponent can decide whether or not to participate in the contest. There is no entry fee charged for participating in this contest. ----------------------Notes: (not included in the experimental instructions distributed to subjects). In all treatments with entry fee, the above bold sentence is replaced by “If you decide to participate in the contest, you must pay entry fee (E). The amount of entry fee will be indicated in your computer screen. The total amount of entry fees collected from all participating contestants will be added to the prize money (V). ------------------------If you decide to participate in the contest, you will have to submit your bid. Submitting a bid is costly, and the cost is equal to Cost = c * bid In which c denotes the additional cost you need to incur for an additional dollar of bid. We call it cost rate. Bid denotes the amount of your bid. To cover your total bidding cost, each of you is given a checkbook of 200 ECU in every period. Your cost rate c can take any value from 1 to 2 (up to 2 decimal points). -----------------Note (not shown in the actual experimental instruction): The range of value is from 1 to 3 in the high heterogeneity treatments. ------------------The computer will randomly draw the value of your cost rate. All values have an equal chance of being selected as your cost rate. You will only know your own cost rate c, but not your opponent's cost rate. 37 If you decide to participate in the contest and submit a non-zero bid, your total cost incurred will be equal to: Your Bidding Cost = c*Bid. If both of you participate in the contest, whoever submit the highest bid wins the contest. The winning prize will be 100 ECU If it is only you who participates in the contest, you automatically win the contest. The winning prize value will be 100 ECU If you submit the same bid amount as your opponent, the contest ends in a tie, the computer will randomly select a winner. The winning prize will be 100 ECU If you decide not to participate in the contest (i.e. submit zero bid), your earnings from the contest will be 0 ECU. Five periods out of all periods you participated will be drawn randomly to determine your payoff from Stage 1. The earning you received in these five drawn periods will be summed and converted into SGD equivalent and added to your final earning from this experiment when the experiment is completed. Stage 2 In this part of the study you will be asked to make a series of choices. How much you receive will depend partly on chance and partly on the choices you make. The decision problems are not designed to test you. What we want to know is what choices you would make in them. The only right answer is what you really would choose. For each line in the table you will see in this stage, please indicate whether you prefer option A or option B. There will be a total of 10 lines in the table but just one line will be randomly selected for payment. You do not know which line will be paid when you make your choices. Hence you should pay attention to the choice you make in every line. After you have completed all your choices, the computer will randomly generate a number, which determines which line is going to be paid out. Your earnings for the selected line depend on which option you chose: If you chose option A in that line, you will receive 20 ECU. If you chose option B in that line, you will receive either 60 ECU or 0. To determine your earnings in the case you chose option B, there will be a second random draw. The computer will randomly determine if your payoff is 0 ECU or 60 ECU, with the chances set by the computer as they are stated in Option B. Your earning from Stage 2 will be added to your final earning from this experiment when the experiment is completed. 38 Stage 3 This stage consists of answering ten (10) quantitative questions. You will be compensated in the following way. For each correct answer you will receive 5 ECU. If you get a question wrong or leave a question unanswered (blank) you will receive 0 ECU, so there is no addition or deduction of points when you make a mistake or leave a question unanswered. The total amount of time given to you to answer these 10 questions is 8 minutes. Your earning from Stage 3 will be added to your final earning from this experiment when the experiment is completed. Please remember to submit your answers before the time allocated runs out, otherwise your answers will not be recorded. Stage 4 In this final stage of the experiment, we will ask you to answer some questions about yourself. Please answer truthfully. When you have finished, we will prepare your final earning, and ask you to sign a receipt in exchange for the payment you receive. Thank you again for your participation! If you have any questions, please raise your hand and an experimenter will come to you. 39 Appendix C Additional Tables of Robustness Checks 40 Table B1: Conditional Means of Bids and Probability of Entry: Panel-Data Specifications Panel A: All 30 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) 49.176 (3.479) 64.700 (3.674) 63.512 (3.627) 40.188 (3.495) 51.705 (2.758) 39.154 (3.534) 0.979 (0.010) 0.846 (0.037) 0.654 (0.052) 0.943 (0.020) 0.815 (0.030) 0.722 (0.047) (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) 44.280 (4.084) 54.837 (4.339) 47.644 (4.315) 34.489 (4.121) 51.812 (3.292) 39.865 (4.193) 0.998 (0.003) 0.864 (0.048) 0.707 (0.065) 0.963 (0.023) 0.805 (0.043) 0.733 (0.066) Panel B: Final 10 Periods Zero Entry Fee, LowHet Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet Notes: For each treatment, column (1) shows the mean bid, conditional on entering the contest, and column (2) shows the mean probability of entering the contest. These results are post-estimation conditional means, which present the average bid and entry probability for each treatment, holding observable characteristics constant. The full regression specifications are shown in Table 5. 41 Table B2: Individual-Level Regression Results for Bids and Entry: Panel-Data Specifications All 30 Periods Optimal Entry Fee, LowHet High Entry Fee, LowHet Zero Entry Fee, HighHet Optimal Entry Fee, HighHet High Entry Fee, HighHet Marginal Cost Period Probability Test Score Past Experiments Had Game Theory Risk Averse Subject Subject’s Age Engineering Student Science Student Business Student Female Subject Observations Log Likelihood Final 10 Periods (1) Bid if Enter (2) Pr(Entry) (3) Bid if Enter (4) Pr(Entry) 12.412 (5.340)∗∗ 12.994 (5.347)∗∗ 3.350 (5.251) 15.248 (4.632)∗∗∗ -0.199 (5.889) -42.439 (0.959)∗∗∗ -0.565 (0.041)∗∗∗ -17.725 (6.953)∗∗ -5.537 (3.504) -0.392 (3.423) 0.452 (3.163) -1.088 (1.032) -1.902 (3.655) 6.919 (4.001)∗ -9.530 (5.524)∗ 5.619 (3.133)∗ -1.153 (0.313)∗∗∗ -1.753 (0.303)∗∗∗ 0.469 (0.320) -0.390 (0.279) -0.483 (0.335) -1.867 (0.091)∗∗∗ -0.001 (0.003) -0.468 (0.383) -0.371 (0.184)∗∗ -0.441 (0.182)∗∗ -0.339 (0.175)∗ 0.036 (0.057) 0.327 (0.203) -0.099 (0.214) 0.102 (0.298) 0.157 (0.171) 10.411 (6.288)∗ 5.527 (6.327) 5.349 (6.191) 20.978 (5.487)∗∗∗ 9.394 (6.968) -42.449 (1.394)∗∗∗ -0.363 (0.179)∗∗ -19.438 (8.415)∗∗ -10.106 (4.144)∗∗ 0.554 (4.055) -3.627 (3.744) -1.000 (1.216) -0.684 (4.328) 7.860 (4.741)∗ -13.842 (6.516)∗∗ 5.948 (3.721) -1.873 (0.578)∗∗∗ -2.475 (0.565)∗∗∗ -0.015 (0.591) -1.188 (0.531)∗∗ -1.154 (0.596)∗ -2.197 (0.188)∗∗∗ 0.017 (0.018) 0.266 (0.607) -0.324 (0.278) -0.581 (0.278)∗∗ -0.493 (0.272)∗ 0.105 (0.094) 0.576 (0.314)∗ -0.245 (0.324) 0.444 (0.485) 0.439 (0.264)∗ 3455 -15,626.223 4320 -1,443.891 1154 -5,087.617 1440 -452.829 Notes: Column (1) displays marginal effects from an OLS regression of the contestant’s bid, conditional on entering the contest. Column (2) displays marginal effects from a Probit regression of whether the contestant entered the contest. ∗, ∗∗, and ∗ ∗ ∗ denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively. 42
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