A ROAD MAP TO THE E-REVOLUTION
: Past, Present, and Future
2017-07-13
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4차 산업혁명과 세계화 시대의 종언
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4차 산업혁명이란?
수십억 인구가 모바일 기기로 연결되어 저장
및 처리능력과 지식에 접근성을 가지게 될 때
발생하는 무한한 가능성 혹은 AI, Robotics,
IoT, Ubiquitous computing, 자율주행 자동
차, 드론, Nano Tech., 3D printing, BioTech
등 폭 넓은 분야에서 새롭게 부상하는 과학기
술을 통해 이뤄지는 융합
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3차 산업혁명의 연장선이 아닌 특징
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1) 속도(velocity): 선형적 속도가 아닌 기하급수적 속
도
2) 범위와 깊이(Breadth and Depth): 과학기술뿐 아
니라 정치, 경제, 사회 문화 등 총체적
패러다임의 변화
3) 시스템 충격(system impact)
- 국제 분업이 줄고 무역량이 감소
- 제조원가에서 인건비 비중이 줄어든다.
- 5년내 500만개의 일자리가 사라진다.
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2014 다보스 포럼의 주제: 제 4차 산업혁명
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현재 기업의 위상과 미래의 전망
2014년 GDP 1485조/
삼성그룹 총매출액303조
GDP 20%, 법인세 19%, 수출액 28%
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IT-fueled Change
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3500 BC
- Written Language에 의한 상업과 정부출현
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1500s초
- 인쇄기술에 의한 중세의 르네상스
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1800s후반
- 전신/전화/철도에 의한 미국기업의 출현 및 national brand
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1990s후반
- NW에 의한 기업, 고객,공급자간의 연계
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2000s
- Electronic Commerce, Distant Learning, Telework에 의한
산업 및 기업구조의 변화
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Road Map via Three Step Process
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Step1 -
Information System Function chain
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Step2 -
Mapping Megawave
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Step3 -
Envisioning and Engaging
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Step1: Framing The Functionality
: taxonomy of a system
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Food Chain
Hierarchy of Human Needs (Maslow)
Information System Function Chain:
Higher level information Function require
the source of Lower level information
functions
From clay tablet to IBM’s Deep Blue
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Exhibit 1. The Taxonomy of a System Chain
The Ecosystem
Food Chain
carnivores
Evolve
The Human System
Needs Chain
Require
Self Actualization
The Information System
Function Chain
Require
Intelligence
Herbivores
Esteem
Application/
Content
Plants/Algae
Social/Affiliation
Infrastructure
Bacteria/Protists
Safety/Security
Processing
Organic Molecules/
Energy/Water
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Evolve
Physiological
Require
Evolve Storage/Physical
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Exhibit 2. The Information System Function Chain
Higher Order Functions
Reasoning, Inference,
Learning, Creativity
5. Intelligence
Function Chart
4. Application/
Content
3. Infrastructure
Application
Human
Interface
User
Require
Data/Media
Intrastructure
(Operating System, etc.)
External
Interfaces
Extrastructure
(Network, etc.)
Computation/
Logic
2. Processing
Evolve
1. Storage/
Physical
Storage
Power
Materials
Lower Order Functions:
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Info. System function Chain
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Level1 : Storage/Physical
Storage - Clay tablets, papyrus, paper,
punch card, magnetic tape,
optical disc
Power - Electricity, Battery
Material - Semiconductor, aluminum,
plastic
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Info. System function Chain
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Level 2 : Processing - engine of IS.
Processing power have huge impact on function
(voice recognition, AI, molecular design, animation etc.)
Computation - calculation, symbol manipulation
Logic
- Boolean logic, and, or
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Info. System function Chain
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Level 3 : Infrastructure
- Providing control and connectivity that glue the many
elements together
Human interface
- connecting system and user-GUI, keyboard, mouse
Intrastructure
- control, schedule, connect elements internal to system-OS,
DBMS, API
External interface
- connecting system to the external environment-bar code
reader, connection to the NW, cameras
Extrastructure
- NW, other system and server
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Info. System Function Chain
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Level 4 : Application/Content
Actual work of IS accomplished in level 4 and 5
Application operates on data or media to produce
a result
Data/Media
- structured data: business data
- semi structured data: documents
- unstructured data: image, audio
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Info. System Function Chain
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Level 5: Intelligence
Reasoning, inferencing, learning and Creativity
 Previous attempts at creating AI have failed
(e.g., Fifth Generation Project, Expert system)
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Mapping The Megawaves
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Principles of developmental process
1. Evolution from bottom to top
2. Many small waves
3. A few Megawaves
4. Dominant Function
5. Acceleration
- 문자에서 인쇄(5000년),
인쇄에서 컴퓨터 (500년),
컴퓨터에서 인터넷(20년)
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage1 – Documentation
Length
(BC3500-1452)
5000yrs
Enabling tech
Written language
Initiating event
Clay tablet
killer application
Impact
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Taxes, laws, accounting
Rise of civilization & commerce
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Exhibit 5. The Three Levels of Digital Convergence
Timeless Function:
Video
5. Intelligence
Books
4. Application/
Content
Money
Software
Games
Video
Paging
Wired
TV
Copier
1. Storage/
Physical
Photos/Images
Voice
Data
Office
Answering Machine
Car
Home
Pager
Computer
Digital
Appliances
Stereo
Equipment
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Image
Papers/Magazine
Digital
Infrastructure
Wireless
2. Processing
Memos
Digital
hypermedia
Audio
3. Infrastructure
Letters
Telephone
Word Processor
Camera
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 2 – Mass Publication
Length
500yrs
Enabling tech
metal type/printing press
Initiating event
Gutenberg Bible
killer application
Impact
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(1452-1946)
Demand for Bible, texts
Rise of Reformation and age of enlightenment
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 3 – Automation
Length
(1946-1978)
32yrs
Enabling tech
Electronic power, switching technologies
(vacuum tubes and then transistors)
Initiating event
ENIAC computer (used vacuum-tube technology)
killer application
Impact
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Artillery trajectories and cipher breaking in World War 2;
business accounting (including the U.S. Census) and
scientific number crunching
Rise of the “Information Age”
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 4 – Mass Interaction
Length
(1978-1985)
7yrs
Enabling tech
Microprocessor, personal computer
Initiating event
Apple2 personal computer
killer application Electronic spreadsheet, word processing,
desktop publishing
Impact
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The Information Age breaks out of the glassencased computer center and into offices and
homes
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 5 – Infrastructuralization
Length
(1985-1993)
8yrs
Enabling tech
Graphical user interface, local and wide area networks
Initiating event
Macintosh personal computer plus enterprise networks
killer application Corporate e-mail and networked enterprise applications
(e.g., enterprise resource planning applications from
PeopleSoft, SAP, Oracle, and others)
Impact
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Rise of the “Real-time Enterprise”
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 6 – Mass Communitization
Length
(1993-2005)
Approximately 12yrs
Enabling tech
World Wide Web, Java
Initiating event
Mosaic Browser plus World Wide Web
killer application Mass information access and interaction
(e-mail, chat, auctions, purchasing)
Impact
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Rise of the “Global Community”
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 7– Virtualization
Length
(2005-2015)
Approximately 10yrs
Enabling tech
Widespread video content and
conferencing of reasonable quality
Initiating event
Offering of full-blown distance learning
degree programs by leading universities
killer application
Collaboration, conferencing, interactive
multimedia
Impact
Rise of the “Virtual Age,” with dramatic
“dematerialization” of entertainment,
education, consulting, and the
corporation
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 8 – Mass Actualization
Length
(2015-2025)
Approximately 10yrs
Enabling tech
Advanced/smart hypermedia authoring tools
Initiating event
PC-created entertainment offerings impact Disney
earnings
killer application
Impact
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Entertainment/arts, education, marketing/advertising,
design
Focus of many jobs moves from operations to creation
and leisure time from spectatorship to creation
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 9 – Agentization
Length
(2025-2040)
Approximately 15yrs
Enabling tech
Advanced neural networks, expert systems, others
Initiating event
Computers consistently pass the Turing Test
killer application
Decision support agents (Shopping, investing, hiring)
and robots with visual processing (driving, machine
operating)
Impact
Elimination of most blue collar, pink collar, and some
white collar work
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Overview of Megawaves
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Stage 10 – Mass Re-creation
Length
(2040-2060)
Approximately 20yrs
Enabling tech
Inference engine, others
Initiating event
Synthetic person wins Time’s “Man of the
Year” award
killer application
Impact
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Synthetic executives, synthetic actors,
synthetic athletes, and the like
Transformation of the nature of work
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Exhibit 6. Analog Content Converges to Digital Hypermedia
Book/
Text
Audio/
Voice
Digital
Audio/
Voice
Video
(Films)
Hypertext
Musical/
Score
Synthesized
Music
Digital
Video
Animation
Outer Ring :
Traditional analog
information products
Inner Ring :
Converging digital
Information products
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Hypermedia
Videogame
Digital/
Synth’d
images
Infobase
Virtual
Reality
Modeling
Image/
Photo
News/
Refer’
Info’n
Desktop
Publish’
E-cash
Elec’
Mail
Money
Catalog
Software
Applic’n
Document
Manual
Routine
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Exhibit 7. Mapping the Landscape of the Fourth Megawave
Electronic Commerce
Distance
Learning
Edutainment Creating
Interactive/
New Media
Insight
Online
Communities
Design
Relating
Knowledge
Management
Research
Distance
Teaming
Information Marketplace
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