The Cancun Paradox
and the Future of Climate Institutions
February 22nd, 2011
Leuven Centre for Global
Governance Studies - KUL
René Audet
Centre d’étude du
développement durable
Negotiating
mandates
(two-tracks)
The Copenhagen Accord
Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol
Long term coop action
Exit negotiating mandate
(Political declaration)
CPH Accord
Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol
Long term coop action
Operationalized in the
negotiating mandate
CPH Agreement
Negotiating
mandates
(two-tracks)
The Cancun Agreements
The Semantics of « Balance »
Does the semantics of
balance can help to predict a
deal?
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome
should demonstrate
sufficient level of
advancement in the KP
track
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome
should demonstrate
sufficient level of
advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed
and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome
should demonstrate
sufficient level of
advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed
and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between
specific issues
(ex:
adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome
should demonstrate
sufficient level of
advancement in the KP
track
Balance between
the needs of future
and present
generation
We need balance between developed
and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between
specific issues
(ex:
adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome
should demonstrate
sufficient level of
advancement in the KP
track
Balance between
the needs of future
and present
generation
We need balance between developed
and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between
specific issues
(ex:
adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
Balance between
human needs and
« Mother Earth’
capacities
The Semantics of « Balance » in the
COP15&16 Plenary Sessions
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
G77
Annex 1
Old and New Multilateralism
Cancun and the redefinition
of multilateralism…
Old and New Multilateralism
Old – Club Model
Closed negotiations among
great powers
Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan),
the Quads (Triads + Canada),
etc.
The CPH Accord as a Club
model Accord?
Old and New Multilateralism
Old – Club Model
New – Dialogue Model
Closed negotiations among
great powers
Coalitions as legitimate
political representatives
Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan),
the Quads (Triads + Canada),
etc.
The CPH Accord as a Club
model Accord?
Ex: the G20, G33, Coton4,
Africa Group, LDC Group,
etc. in the WTO and UNFCCC
The role of the Cartagena
Dialogue in Cancun.
Conclusion
The Copenhagen Accord will structure
future climate negotiations and
institutions more than is admitted.
The Cancun Agreements go as far as
possible in the contexte of competing
semantics of balance
New multilateralism and Cartagena
Dialogue important for the next big
trade-off…
What about the balance between political will and
science-based decisions?
Bedankt!