April 3, 2017
Currency
USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR
DX
LTP
65.08
69.65
81.2
58.28
100.42
Chg. %
-2.76
-1.98
-2.54
-2.38
-0.70
EURUSD
1.0655
0.74
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCNY
1.255
111.4
6.8871
1.36
-1.22
0.28
Rupee Set for Best Monthly Gain since March 2016
The rupee appreciated by over 2.76% against the dollar in last month. A decisive victory of Bharatiya
Janata Party's in a major state election and weakness in the dollar after the US Federal Reserve
signaled a gradual pace for further increase in the rate hike was supported the local currency gain. On
the quarterly basis Rupee gained more than 4.60%, biggest since July 2012.
Bharatiya Janata Party massive victory in four out of five state elections boosted investors' bets for
continuation of the government's reforms agenda especially in the infrastructure sector in the coming
years which attracted large portfolio inflows into equity and debt and also propelled the rupee to its
best first-quarter performance.
Adding to this, the Lok Sabha passed key four key Goods and Service Tax (GST) supporting bills as part
of government's endeavour to rollout the unified tax regime by July.
On the other hand, US Federal Reserve policy statement of March month lifted weakness in the dollar
index towards 98.67, its lowest levels since November 2016. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by
0.25% to a target range of 0.75% to 1% but kept its previous forecast of three rate increases this year
unchanged, which disappointed investors, who expected four rate hikes in 2017.
Dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded 100.42
compared to 101.13 previous month close of Indian market on 31 March 2017.
Seema Yadav
Research Analyst
Tel: +91-0731-4262702
[email protected]
Adding to this, the US House Republican leaders decided to withdraw the bill amid indications of a lack
of support also added weakness in the dollar index. The bill was opposed by a number of more
conservative lawmakers amid criticism that it did not go far enough to repeal the provisions of
Obamacare.
India Nivesh Securities Limited | SEBI Registration No.INH000000511
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
USD-INR April Future Outlook
LTP
65.08
Sell around
65.70-65.75
1 Target
64.80
2 Target
64.10
Stop loss
66.05
LTP: 31 March 2017
USD-INR continued its recent bearish trend and settled with its
biggest monthly fall since March 2016. It retreated from the
monthly high 67.1125 levels and drop towards 64.9450, lowest
levels since Oct 2015.
A strong break down of twelve month consolidation and a long
Black candle stick formation was found on the above monthly
chart, both of which are yet creating probability for the
bearishness in USDINR. However, 64.80 levels will act as crucial
support on closing basis for the USD-INR which is coincided with
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of May 2014 to FEB 2016 rally.
Below this level the pair may test 65.10-63.90 levels zone.
Further, the pair is trading below the rising Channel line that is
drawn from May 2014 low (58.3250 levels) to September 2015
(67.14) and February 2016 high (69.2150 levels) is also creating
probability for bearishness in the pair.
On the upside, March 2017 high (67.1125 levels) will represent a
test of massive resistance and a break only above it could result in
recovery towards 68.17-68.60 levels zone.
Key Indicators which Lifted Clutter in Currency Market March 2017
Indicators (U.S)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Federal Funds Rate
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Final GDP q/q
Indicators (Japan)
Household Spending y/y
Final GDP q/q
BSI Manufacturing Index
BOJ Policy Rate
Indicators (China)
Non-Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Trade Balance
CPI y/y
PPI y/y
Industrial Production y/y
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
Actual
298K
0.20%
235K
4.70%
0.10%
0.20%
0.20%
0.10%
<1.00%
0.40%
2.1%
Actual
-1.20%
0.30%
1.10
-0.10%
Actual
54.2
51.6
51.7
-60B
0.80%
7.80%
6.30%
8.90%
Forecast
184K
0.30%
196K
4.70%
0.00%
0.20%
0.10%
0.20%
<1.00%
0.50%
2.00%
Forecast
-0.30%
0.40%
8.40
-0.10%
Forecast
51.2
50.9
173B
1.90%
7.60%
6.20%
8.20%
Previous
261K
0.20%
238K
4.80%
0.60%
0.30%
1.20%
0.60%
<0.75%
0.00%
1.90%
Previous
-0.30%
0.20%
7.50
-0.10%
Previous
54.6
51.3
51
355B
2.50%
6.90%
6.00%
8.10%
Indicators (Euro Zone)
Spanish Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales m/m
German Factory Orders m/m
Minimum Bid Rate
Final CPI y/y
Long Term Refinancing Operation
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
German Prelim CPI m/m
German Unemployment Change
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Indicators (U.K.)
Manufacturing PMI
Construction PMI
Services PMI
Manufacturing Production m/m
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Claimant Count Change
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Official Bank Rate
CPI y/y
Indicators (India)
Index of Industrial Production
Wholesale price-based inflation
Fiscal deficit
Actual
-9.4K
-0.80%
-7.40%
0.00%
2.00%
233.5B
2.3%
0.20%
-0.30k
1.5%
0.7%
Actual
54.6
52.5
53.3
-0.90%
2.20%
-11.3K
1-0-8
0.25%
2.30%
Actual
2.7%
6.55%
Rs 6.05 tlrn
(113.4%)
Forecast
5.2K
0.20%
-2.50%
0.00%
2.00%
2.60%
0.40%
-10K
1.80%
0.80%
Forecast
55.7
52.2
54.2
-0.60%
2.40%
3.2K
0-0-9
0.25%
2.10%
Forecast
-
Previous
57.3K
0.00%
5.20%
0.00%
2.00%
62.2B
3.00%
0.60%
-14K
2.00%
0.90%
Previous
55.7
52.2
54.5
2.20%
2.60%
-41.4K
0-0-9
0.25%
1.80%
Previous
-0.4%
5.25%
(107.1%)
Forexfactory.com, tickernews, investing.com.
Key Economic Data and Events to Watch in April 2017
India – Will impact Rupee
06/04/17- RBI first bi-monthly monetary policy
12/04/17 - IIP (y/y chg)
17/04/17 -WPI inflation
31/03/17- Government Finances
Europe – Will impact EUR
19/04/17- Final CPI y/y
22/04/17- OPEC Meetings
24/04/17- German Ifo Business Climate
27/04/17 - Minimum Bid Rate & ECB Press Conference
28/04/17-CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Japan – Will impact JPY
03/04/17- Tankan Manufacturing Index, BOJ Core CPI y/y
10/04/17 - Current Account
27/04/17 - Monetary Policy Statement & Policy Rate
28/04/17 - National Core CPI y/y
28/04/17 - BOJ Core CPI y/y
U.S. – Will impact Dollar Index
05/04/17 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
05/04/17 - FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/04/17 - Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
14/04/17 - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
27/04/17 - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
28/04/17 - Final GDP q/q
U.K. – Will impact GBP
03/04/17 - Manufacturing PMI
04/04/17 - Construction PMI
05/04/17 - Services PMI
07/04/17- Manufacturing Production m/m
11/04/17- CPI y/y
28/04/17- Prelim GDP q/q
China – Will impact Yaun
03/04/17 - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
09/04/17 - CPI y/y
13/04/17 - GDP q/y & industrial Production y/y
13/04/17 - Trade Balance
Source: Forexfactory.com, ticker news, investing.com
India Nivesh Securities Limited | SEBI Registration No.INH000000511
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007.
Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
e-mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in
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