Clonal Deployment Revisited
Results from a simulation model to minimise risk
for both a known and unknown future pest
Alvin Yanchuk1, John Bishir2
John Russell1 and Ken Polsson1
1. BC Forest Service
2. NC State Univ
Introduction
•Libby (1982), Roberds et al (1990)
•single gene models, plantation failure
•more than 30 clones does not provide any
advantages
•sometimes 1 is best
Probability of plantation failure at 50 years for 3 gene frequencies for
recessive susceptable allele
Prob. of failure (1/2 of trees dead by age 50)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
p=0.4
0.0
1
10
100
number of clones
1000
Probability of plantation failure at 50 years for 3 gene frequencies for
recessive susceptable allele
Prob. of failure (1/2 of trees dead by age 50)
1.0
0.8
p=0.62
0.6
0.4
0.2
p=0.4
0.0
1
10
100
number of clones
1000
Probability of plantation failure at 50 years for 3 gene frequencies for
recessive susceptable allele
Prob. of failure (1/2 of trees dead by age 50)
1.0
p=0.7
0.8
p=0.62
0.6
0.4
0.2
p=0.4
0.0
1
10
100
number of clones
1000
Introduction
•Issues to consider:
• growth and yield
• deployment patterns
• current known and future unknown threats
• disease &pest resistance - evolutionary
concerns
Objectives
• maximize
volume at rotation
• number of clones deployed
• planting patterns
• current and future pest threat
• environmental attributes
Methods
• Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS - B.C. For.Ser.)
–individual stems, competition-driven
• Spruce weevil and clonal deployment model
–plants trees using different deployment scenarios
–tree resistance mechanisms
–spruce weevil movement, dynamics, damage
–impact on growth and yield (interaction with TASS)
Deployment numbers & patterns
Numbers of clones
•2, 6, 18 and 30
•Deployment strategies
•Random Mix (RM)
•Single Clonal Blocks (SCB)
•Mosaic of Clonal Blocks (MCB)
Random Mixes
1
2
1
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Random Mixes
1
2
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1
1
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1
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1
1
Single Clone Blocks
1
1
1
1
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Mosaic of Clonal Blocks - 2 clones
1
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1
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2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Mosaic of Clonal Blocks - 6 clones
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
Weevil Parameters
•weevil introductions into plantations
– each
tree starts with 2 weevils
–6 weevils / tree on 6 corner trees
–no weevils
Environmental Parameters
•two average annual temperatures (7 C and 11 C)
•two site indices (24 and 30)
•two sizes (1 and 5 hectares)
Clones
•Fixed
•known pest
•resistance mechanisms
•Random
•unknown future threat
Clonal Parameters
• ATR - attractiveness (volatile)
10=extremely attractive
• RES - rate of resin flow rate
10 = maximum flow
• TOX - toxicity of resin
10=100% toxic
Clonal Parameters
•GRW - tree ‘vigour’
-grown in absence of weevil
•h2=1.0 for ATR, RES, TOX
•h2=0.5 for GRW
•GRW correlated with RES (rg=0.5)
Parameters of resistance for fixed clones
• three clonal scenarios:
1) 2 clones:1 & 2
2) 6 clones: 1 to 6
3) all 18 clones
•attempted to have:
•good growth
•various resistance combinations
Clone #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
GRW ATR
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.8
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.9
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
8.0
8.0
RES
TOX
2.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
5.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
5.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
5.0
2.0
8.0
8.0
Random Clones (Unknown Future Threat)
•clones drawn randomly from normal distribution
•RES,TOX,ATR:  =0.5,  =1.5
•GRW:  =1.0,  =0.1
•up to 30 runs per scenario
2 fixed clones (WD=1, TMP= 11, SI=30, Ha=1)
1400
100
1400
1200
1000
1000
800
800
80
60
RM-Vol.
600
600
MCB-Vol.
SCB-Vol.
40
RM-% Surv.
400
MCB-% Surv.
400
SCB-% Surv.
200
20
200
0
0
0
1
2
clone number
% Survival of Stems
Merchantable Vol. (by clone)
1200
6 fixed clones (WD=1, TMP= 11, SI=30, Ha=1)
MCB - Vol.
MCB - % Surv.
SCB - Vol.
SCB - % Surv.
500
100
400
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
0
1
2
3
clone number
4
5
6
% Survival of Stems
merchantable vol. (by clone)
RM - Vol.
RM - %Surv.
Fixed Clones, No Weevils (SI=30, Tmp=11, Ha=1)
RM - Vol.
MCB - Vol.
SCB -Vol.
RM - %Surv
MCB - %Surv.
SCB - % Surv.
80
70
600
60
50
400
40
30
200
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
Clone number
5
6
%stem survival
Merchantable volume (m3/ha)
800
18 fixed clones (WD=1, TMP= 11, SI=30, Ha=1)
180
120
160
RM - Vol
SCB - Vol
RM - % Surv.
SCB - % Surv.
100
120
80
100
60
80
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
clone number
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
% Survival of Stems
merchantable vol. (cu. m./ha)
140
Random Clones (WD=1, TMP=11, SI=30)
500
Ha 1 / RM
Ha 1 / MC
Ha 1 / SC
450
merch. volume (cu. m / ha)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
0
5
10
15
20
Number of Clones
25
30
35
RANDOM CLONES (WD=1, SI=30, Ha = 1)
100
300
T ot. Cont. Numcln = 2
80
250
T ot. Cont. Numcln = 6
T ot. Cont. Numcln = 18
T ot. Cont. Numcln = 30
70
Cumm. % NumCln = 2
200
Cumm. % NumCln = 6
60
Cumm. % NumCln = 18
Cumm. % NumCln = 30
50
150
Top 50% clones=85% volume
40
100
Ne reduction 20%
30
20
50
10
0
0
0
5
10
15
Number of Clones
20
25
30
Total Merch. Vol. by Clone
Cummulative % contribution by clone to total
volume
90
Random Clones No Weevils (WD=3, TMP=11, SI=30, Ha=1)
1900
Merchantable Vol. (cu. m. / ha)
1800
1700
1600
Ha 1 / RM
Ha 1 / MCB
Ha 1 / SCB
1500
0
5
10
15
20
number of clones
25
30
35
Conclusions
• range
of ‘acceptable’ numbers of clones, between
6-18
• random mix was always the best
• most elite genotype will do most of the work
• effective population sizes change only by ~20%
• current BC policy of Ne = 20 tested clones
Conclusions
• Changes in other model parameters minimal effects:
– temperature differences
– 1 vs 5 ha
– insect “introduction” patterns
– site index
Conclusions
•Additional questions that remain:
– deployment across the landscape
Conclusions
•Additional questions that remain:
– deployment across the landscape
– allelic model for resistances (MGR)
– clonal ideotypes /among and with clone competition
-full-sib family deployment