VALUE INVESTING COURSE - LEVEL ONE Welcome to level one! We will start by understanding how the stock market works. We will then learn about "share price sheets" and its uses. Finally, we will study the key "value investing ratios". Level one is the foundation to finding the best stocks to buy. If you need any help send an email to [email protected] What Is The "Stock Market"? The stock market is the meeting point for buyers and sellers of company shares. It allows companies to raise cash & investors the chance to buy a slice of ownership. What Drives Stock Prices? A stock's price is driven by supply and demand. If investors want to buy but few shareholders want to sell, the price of a stock will go up. As the price goes up more shareholders will be tempted to sell and fewer investors will still want to buy. The price will steady once buyers = sellers. What are "Stocks/Shares" ? A company will split its capital into shares. It will then sell them to raise money. As each share represents a unit of ownership, shareholders have he right to a piece the companies earnings. What Creates Bargain Stocks? The two major causes for a stock price to drop or remain cheap are: Disappointing yearly earnings Unpopularity or neglect Value investing teaches you to find the exact moment a good company can be bought at an attractive price. READING "SHARE PRICE SHEETS" Share price sheets look complicated so let's take it one column at a time. Columns 1 & 2: 52W High & Low These are the highest and lowest prices at which a stock has traded over the past year. Column 3 & 4: Company Name & Ticker These columns lists the name of the company and unique code which identifies the stock. Column 5: Div This indicates the amount of dividends paid per share. Column 6: Yield % The dividend yield represents the "dividends/ price"per share. We will learn more about this later. Column 7: P/E The price to earnings ratio is the (stock price/ earnings) per share. We will learn about P/E later on. Column 8: Vol 00's This figure shows the total number of shares traded for the day. Column 9, 10 & 11:High, Low & Close These are the highest and lowest prices at which a stock has traded during the day.The close is the last trading price when the market closed. Column 12: Net Change This is the change in the stock price from the previous day's closing price. THE "NUMBERS OF VALUE INVESTING" The numbers below are key to finding the value of a company. So make sure you understand them inside out! Price to earnings ratio (P/E) Formula: Stock price divided by earnings per share The price to earnings ratio represents the dollar amount an investor will pay to receive $1 of that companys earnings. If a company has a price to earnings ratio of 20, the investor will pay $20 for $1 of earnings. When we develop your investment strategy, I will teach you to use the price to earnings ratio to find the best stocks to buy. Market Capitalisation Formula: Number of company shares x stock price Market cap is the size of the company. If a company has 200 shares on the market at $10 per share, the market cap is $2000. Market cap is great for finding the best stocks to buy based on your risk profile. You will see how when developing your investment strategy. Enterprise Value Formula: (Market Cap + Company Debt +Minority Interest + Preferred Stock) Cash The enterprise value is the true representation of the size and value of the company. In level 3 you will see how the enterprise value is used to calculate the value of a company. Enterprise Multiple Formula: Enterprise value divided by EBITDA Enterprise multiple shows how many years of earnings a company will need to pay off the enterprise value. We will learn how to use the enterprise multiple in level 3. Dividend Yield % Formula: Dividends divided by stock price per share Dividends is a sum of money paid to give company profits back to shareholders. A dividend yield of 10% means it will take 10 years to recover the price of the stock in dividends. You will learn to use dividend yield to find good companies in level 3. Warren Buffett's Owners Earnings Formula: (income + amortisation+ depreciation) – (capital expenditures – any unusual non recurring costs) Warren Buffett's owners earnings show the true amount of earnings made by a shareholder. If Warren Buffett uses owners earnings to find the best stocks to buy we would be mad not too! You will learn how to calculate owners earnings in level two. EBITDA Formula: Total earnings - interest - tax - depreciation - amortisation EBITDA excludes interest,tax, depreciation and amortisation to give you a clear view of a companys profitability. It has many uses when it comes to analysing company performance. We will walk through how to calculate EBITDA in level 2. EBITDA MARGIN Formula: EBITDA divided by total revenue EBITDA Margin shows how much operating cash is generated for each dollar of revenue earned. This is perfect for finding the best stocks to buy! You will use this to create your stock portfolio. READY FOR LEVEL TWO? In Level two we will learn how to calculate owners earnings, EBITDA, EBITDA Margin & how to spot accounting time bombs! Level two is a huge step towards finding the best stocks. VALUE INVESTING COURSE - LEVEL TWO Welcome to level two! You start by understanding how to analyse company performance. You then learn to identify a profitable company. Finally, you will master a skill to stop you making mistakes! If you don't know some of the terms visit the investment dictionary! ANALYSING COMPANY PERFORMANCE You need to separate good companies from bad ones. The three numbers below will do this. EBITDA EBITDA Margin Warren Buffett's Owners Earnings EBITDA EBITDA = Net income - Interest - Depreciation - Amortisation - Taxes Let's work through an example... EBITDA = 600 - (-50) - (-50) - (-100) = $800k We have found that the EBITDA is $800k. But what use is this to us? By itself not a great deal. Let's now calculate the EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin EBITDA Margin = EBITDA / Total Revenue The higher the EBITDA margin the more profitable the company's operation. Continuing with our example... EBITDA = $800k Total Revenue = $1,000k EBITDA Margin = 800 / 1000 = 0.8 EBITDA Margin = 80% For every $100 of revenue, $20 is spent on expenses and $80 is profit. As EBITDA margin is a percentage we can compare companies. This is perfect for finding the best stocks to buy! Warren Buffett's Owners Earnings (Earnings + amortisation+ depreciation) – (capital expenditures – uncommon costs) Warren Buffet's owner earnings finds how much cash falls into the shareholders pockets. Warren Buffet looks at the amount an owner can take from the business without affecting operations. Dividing Warren Buffett's owners earnings by revenue will find the percentage being converted into shareholder cash. IDENTIFYING PROFITABLE COMPANYS Profitable companies have the following in common: Strong earnings per share growth High EBITDA margin Continuous dividends You use these to find companies that will be profitable in the future. Strong Earnings Per Share Growth Earnings per share (EPS) is the companies earnings divided by it's number of shares. EPS growth of 40% over 10 years shows a well run company. High EBITDA margin The higher the EBITDA margin the more profitable the company. The best stocks to buy will have high EBITDA margins. Continuous Dividends Ten years of continuous dividends would show a company that has had strong past performance. These will be rules to find the best stocks to buy for your stock portfolio AVOIDING ACCOUNTING TRAPS You should never buy a stock without reading the financials. They show you: Employee satisfaction levels long term plans of directors Future issues for the company The points below will stop you investing in untrustworthy companys. Read the statements backwards Anything the company doesn’t want you to know will be at the back. Look out for anything that impacts earnings. Read the footnotes You will find “summary of accounting policies” as a key note. This outlines how the company calculates revenue. Look for words like “restructuring” which mean changes in policy. READY FOR LEVEL THREE? In level three you will learn to value a company & find bargain stocks! VALUE INVESTING COURSE - LEVEL THREE Welcome to level three! You start by understanding what makes a good company. You then learn how to calculate the value a company. Finally, you will master the art of finding bargain stocks. Bargain stocks guarantee big profits! If you don't know some of the terms visit the investment dictionary! SIGNS OF A GOOD COMPANY A good company has all the below. Strong brand identity Monopoly or near monopoly A unique intangible asset (coca cola recipe) Company invests in R&D Trustworthy management Strong business model You will use these as rules to find the best stocks to buy! CALCULATING THE VALUE OF A COMPANY Enterprise value is the true value of the company. Enterprise Value =Market Cap + Company Debt +Minority Interest + Preferred Stock - Cash The enterprise value alone is not helpful. You need to find the enterprise multiple. Enterprise Multiple = Enterprise Value / EBITDA A low enterprise multiple indicates an undervalued company. Your stock portfolio must have companies with low enterprise multiples. FINDING BARGAIN STOCKS A bargain stock is one where the price per share is lower than the book value per share. If book value is less than the price per share, you are getting the fixed assets for free! Developing your strategy will teach you to use this to find bargain stocks. Book value = Current Assets – All Liabilities & Preferred Stock If price divided by book value per share is less than 1 you have a bargain stock! READY TO DEVELOP YOUR STRATEGY? Once you have completed all three levels you are ready create your value investing strategy. Let's find how to best invest your money CREATE YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO Value investing is built on rules. Once you complete the course you are ready to start finding the best stocks to buy. Let's begin with some common rules that all investors must apply. COMMON RULES FOR YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO Apply the following rules to your stock portfolio to stop yourself making losses Your stock portfolio should be diverse with a minimum of ten different stocks Each company should not have debt of more than 50% of it's enterprise value (See level three for more) Your stock portfolio should contain no more than thirty different stocks Common stock should account for at least 50% of a companies enterprise value (See level three for more) WHATS YOUR APPETITE FOR RISK? Only you decide how much risk you are willing to take. Consider your current financial situation & long term goals before deciding. Market Capitalisation The bigger the company the slower but more stable the price growth. Dividend Yield Growth stocks tend not to pay out any dividends as they are reinvesting all profits into expanding. Price To Earnings Ratio Growth stocks have large price to earnings ratio. Earnings Per Share EPS trend shows a companies growth rate and maturity. Defensive investors should invest in companies with: A price to earnings ratio of less than 20 A monopoly & strong brand identity 10 years of continuous dividends No negative earnings in the past ten years Ten year EPS growth of at least 30% Aggresive investors should invest in companies with: Any price to earnings ratio A strong business model Trustworthy management No negative earnings in the past five years Five year EPS growth of at least 50% You can now see how the value investing course is applied to develop your investment strategy. WANT TO SEE HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE RULES? I have put together a tutorial to show you how use the above rules to find the best stocks to buy. Depreciation is the reduction in a value of a fixed asset over time. Amortisation is the same but for intangible assets (goodwill, patents). EBITDA Margin is the percentage of revenue converted into operating profit. Reported Earnings: Shown as net income on the income statement. Depreciation and Amortisation: Found in the cash flow statement. Capital expenditures: Found in the cash flow statement. Non-recurring costs: Found on the income statement. Confirm they are "nonrecurring". Market cap: Number of shares x stock price Company debt: All borrowings (short & long term) shown under liabilities in the balance sheet. Minority interests: Found under long term liabilities on the balance sheet. Preferred stock: Found under equity on the balance sheet Cash: Found under current assets in the balance sheet Enterprise multiple is the number of years of current earnings a company needs to pay off it's enterprise value. Book value per share = book value / number of shares
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