BREXIT – IUPC debate item
01 December 2016
Confidential
What happens next?
What happens next?
The UK will not leave the EU for some time
• Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - the government “shall” serve notice and trigger a negotiation period of
up to 2 years
• Timeframe discussed to trigger – March 2017…however that is subject to various factors
• EU laws continue to apply in the meantime
Can we change our minds or take longer than 2 years?
• The article 50 process is irreversible once notice is served, unless all EU member countries agree
• If agreement on exit terms is not reached in 2 years, we exit automatically, unless all EU countries
agree to give us longer
New cabinet battles
4
The longer term worst case could
be some or all of the following…
Immediate impact on
student applications
because of uncertainty
EU graduates rights to
work in the UK limited
Visas for EU citizens to
come here – including
staff and students
No Erasmus framework
or funding
UK shunned by
international or EU
partners
Visas for UK citizens to
travel to the EU
EU student numbers
capped by immigration
limits
UK not eligible for EU
research funding
EU rules on
immigration prevent EU
employers offering UK
students placements
EU student numbers
drop as fees go up and
loans are stopped
Longer term macroeconomic factors affect
funding and
employment prospects
for graduates*
*This is both a risk and an opportunity - a risk of recession that could impact the job market, make student recruitment
harder and reduce research and other funding for universities
…or things could be better?
A good deal with the EU on
immigration and emigration for
staff and students
Relaxation on limits on student
and staff from outside the EU
and freedom to work
Increased UK investment in
research in less bureaucratic
programmes
No limits on participation in EU
research projects
Full participation in Erasmus
and other schemes as a third
party
Longer term macro-economic
factors affect funding and
employment prospects for
graduates*
*This is both a risk and an opportunity as student numbers tend to increase in a recession and graduates are less likely to
lose their jobs, according to Graduate prospects
30%+ of non-UK students are from
the EU
We have on campus 444 EU students in 2016 (264 UG, 160 PGT, 20 PGR)
Over £5m fee income from EU students
60% of our EU undergraduate students take student loans.
We provide bursaries or scholarships to 20% of our EU UG students
International and EU recruitment
900
800
700
600
500
100
PGT FT
UG FT
300
200
615
582
571
543
400
128
124
104
177
159
203
163
EU
International
EU
International
215
97
160
214
175
EU
International
0
total 2013-14
total 2014-15
Data kindly provided by the international recruitment team
EU
International
total 2015-16
total targets 2016-17
Student recruitment – by Faculty
Courses with more than 20% EU students:
• 12 PGT courses in FM with more than 20% EU students, and 7 in FST
• 4 UG courses in FMC and 2 in FST
The numbers on most of these courses are small – e.g. the overall effect of losing them all in FMC
would be 50 students.
Undergraduate students
PGT students
450
14
1200
12
1000
5
12
400
4
4
350
10
300
800
3
7
250
200
8
600
2
2
6
400
150
1
4
100
1
200
2
50
0
0
0
FM
0
0
0
HSS
0
FMC
0
HSS
FST
FM
FMC
FST
Joint
Honours
EU
EU
International
International
Home
Home
number of PGT courses with more than 20% EU students
number of UG courses with more than 20% EU students
Research awards
•
Last year 13% of our research awards were EU funded (17 projects)
•
9% were internationally funded – 11 projects
•
Around £1.3m EU research income per year
100%
80%
69%
60%
89%
78%
Uk awards
84%
International awards
40%
20%
4%
7%
2012/2013
0%
12%
19%
9%
13%
2013/2014
2014/2015
EU awards
9%
7%
2015/2016
EU research funding is a significant proportion of our external funding :
•
35% in 2013/14
•
24%% in 2014/15
£7,000,000
£6,000,000
£5,000,000
£4,000,000
UK
£3,000,000
International
£2,000,000
EU
£1,000,000
£0
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
FY of Award
Data kindly provided by RKEO as at 17 March 2016. 2015/16 data was YTD in April.
Please note that data is self reported in RED and there are limitations on the data collected) so this is
indicative only
Research pipeline
Our EU awards are considerably bigger, on average, than our UK or international awards
250,000
200,000
EU
150,000
International
100,000
UK
50,000
0
2012/2013
2013/2014
EU
Number
Income
Funding Source
17
4,105,041
6
89,716
UK
68
5,842,564
Grand Total
91
10,037,321
International
2015/2016
Pre-pending bids
Pending bids
Funding Source
2014/2015
Number
Income
EU
17
1,809,232
International
13
353,650
UK
42
1,775,585
Grand Total
72
3,938,467
Data kindly provided by RKEO as at 17 March 2016. 2015/16 data was YTD.
Please note that data is self reported in RED and there are limitations on the data collected) so this is
indicative only
Research - risks and mitigation?
Risks
The loss of EU research income –
around £1m or more in 2014/15 and
2015/16
• still be available to the UK as a third country?
• the UK government might replace some of this
funding?
• seek more international funding
What can we do now?
Carry on with EU applications and projects, and
collaboration
Seek international opportunities
Impact on collaborative relationships
• in practice, these relationships are likely to
continue
• EU frameworks do require collaboration generally
and include non EU countries
• collaborations and publications may continue
despite EU funding being limited or more difficult
to obtain
Bureaucracy and internal costs may
increase
• it may be more time consuming to apply
especially for small bids
• if sources of funding are fragmented (e.g.
international sources) there will be more effort
needed
Focus on networks and building relationships to
help with selection later
Review and highlight gaps in current UK funding
that are currently filled by EU funds
Monitor trends
Research - risks and mitigation?
Risks
The loss of EU research income –
around £1m or more in 2014/15 and
2015/16
• still be available to the UK as a third country?
• the UK government might replace some of this
funding?
• seek more international funding
What can we do now?
Carry on with EU applications and projects, and
collaboration
Seek international opportunities
Impact on collaborative relationships
• in practice, these relationships are likely to
continue
• EU frameworks do require collaboration generally
and include non EU countries
• collaborations and publications may continue
despite EU funding being limited or more difficult
to obtain
Bureaucracy and internal costs may
increase
• it may be more time consuming to apply
especially for small bids
• if sources of funding are fragmented (e.g.
international sources) there will be more effort
needed
Focus on networks and building relationships to
help with selection later
Review and highlight gaps in current UK funding
that are currently filled by EU funds
Monitor trends
Mobility 2015-16
BU has c120 international
partnerships, of which 74 are
Erasmus+ partnerships with
institutions in EU states for staff and
student exchange.
Each year BU is awarded a grant of
between €200,000 and €280,000.
by the EU Erasmus+ programme for
staff and student mobility
28 students went on study exchanges
funded through the Erasmus+ programme
41 students undertook work placements in
EU countries funded through Erasmus+
Around 12 staff did teaching or
professional exchanges
The same number of students (28)
undertook study exchanges at our partners
in Asia and North America
62 students did work placements funded
through the Global Horizons Fund in
countries outside Europe
Mobility – risks can be mitigated
Jo Johnson statement on 28th June
“The referendum result does not affect students studying in the EU, beneficiaries of Erasmus+ or
those considering applying in 2017. The UK’s future access to the Erasmus+ programme will be
determined as a part of wider discussions with the EU.”
“More broadly, existing UK students studying in the EU, and those looking to start in the next
academic year, will continue to be subject to current arrangements.”
Risks
What can we do now?
May lose access to Erasmus funding
The UK government could fund the scheme
No immediate impact
Immigration policy is more important:
• might a points system allow university students and
staff to work and study here?
• might the EU also allow UK staff and students to work
and study there?
• the government might also open the UK to more
migration for global students and staff
Relationships with EU employers who sponsor students or
take placement students might be affected by local
restrictions
Will need to lobby on this for negotiations
Explore potential to replace Erasmus funds
Continue to focus on international mobility
Continue to develop employer and partner
relationships in the UK and internationally
Student Perception:
A question in the 2016 UG Decliners Survey:
Has the UK's EU Referendum influenced your feelings about attending a UK University?
For UCAS purposes, are you classified as a:
Answer Options
Yes
No
If yes, in what ways?
UK student
EU (non-UK) student
International (non-EU)
student
Response
Percent
191
1413
44
56
8
25
14.0%
86.0%
answered question
skipped question
UK – Yes comments:
• Potential to work elsewhere may now be
limited.
• Worries about loss of EU funding for research
and facilities
• I am worried about the strength of the links
between UK universities and those in the EU;
especially as my course may contain travelling
to EU countries.
• Worried they'll be less diverse
• Wondering if I will be able to attend a university
abroad for 1 semester as my uni promised
Response
Count
243
1494
227
1737
110
EU – Yes comments:
• I'm not sure if I would still like to go to the UK
• i am considering another university outside of
UK
• Now I feel like you don't appreciate my
sacrifices of being so far from home in order to
create something extraordinary in your country
with my abilities and my work. What I am afraid
of is that UK citizens will only see me as a
stranger because of my nationality, despite the
fact that I am so much more.
Recruitment – Sept 2016 (New)
Taught enrolled students on named awards overall split by fee status:



TOTAL FT OS (Taught) – 571 ENROLLED VS TARGET OF 624 (-8%) VS ACTUAL 2015 OF
598 (-5%)
TOTAL FT EU (Taught) - 323 ENROLLED VS TARGET OF 307 (+5%) VS ACTUAL 2015 OF
348 (-7%)
TOTAL FT NON-UK (Taught) – 894 ENROLLED VS TARGET OF 931 (-4%) VS ACTUAL
2015 OF 946 (-6%)
Taught enrolled students on named awards split by level and fee status:




FTUG EU: 201 enrolled vs 211 target (-10) ACTUAL SEPT 2015 = 215 (-14)
FTUG OS: 186 enrolled vs 173 target (+13) ACTUAL SEPT 2015 = 160 (+26)
FTPGT EU: 122 enrolled vs 96 target (+26) ACTUAL SEPT 2015 = 133 (-11)
FTPGT OS: 385 enrolled vs 451 target (-66) ACTUAL SEPT 2015 = 438 (-53)
A post-BREXIT BU world
• Recruitment (on-campus):
- Will we maintain European numbers? Probably not, shift to PGT/PGR –
potentially a shift away from the more “developing” economies of Bulgaria
and the Baltics and concentration on France, Germany, Scandinavia.
- Will non-EU numbers maintain? Without UK Government clarification on
visa issues, change of tone and a portfolio of programmes market
informed…
- European universities will increase their own non-EU market share
- Other UK universities who move quick use their European links as a
differentiator for recruitment (UK +non-UK)
A post-BREXIT BU world
• Partnerships (Mobility)
- No Erasmus+ programme
- Fewer options for exchanges at UG level
- Visa requirements for students working/studying in Europe
- Less access to work placements in Europe
- More expensive mobility options due to travel costs and visas (eg. to
Australia, USA, Canada)
- GFOL model (student mobility) becomes a strong differentiator to
encourage student globalisation
A post-BREXIT BU world
• To consider:
• Our offer
- Faculty programmes (especially at PGT level) to consider “by-course” viability
taking into consideration OS/EU/Home split
- Consider programmes with embedded exchanges/placement overseas with nonUK partners (academic or industry) – all levels
- Wider revenue streams - Exec Ed/CPD/etc… with academic or industry partners
- 27 countries on our doorstep as potential full fee payers
- TNE with European partners – campus in Bulgaria?
- What is the future for ECTS in UKHE?
- External research funding availability…what BU research areas are more reliant
on European collaboration and are those centres building in plan B…
• GFOL Europe by 2020?
• Innovation Hub Europe by 2020?
A post-BREXIT BU world
• To consider (2):
• Academic partnerships:
- Should BU be widening it’s non-EU exchange opportunities, and if so, where?
AND/OR will the current EU Erasmus partners wish to continue post-BREXIT?
- Study Abroad (incoming fee paying short term programmes) agenda – should we be
looking at this more as an additional revenue stream plus partnership activity?
- UK outgoing students – without Erasmus funding, should UK universities put in
funding themselves to support mobility – will this become a recruitment differentiator?
- XX number of individual exchange/study abroad contracts to negotiate
BU - EU Gateway:
• BU works with Local Govt (including LEP, UKVI SE, Bournemouth and Poole
Chambers of Commerce/Tourism Boards, etc…) to position itself as a portal for local
industry into Europe
Finally…
• Do we know what our current partner universities (EU and non-EU)
want regarding our relationship post BREXIT?