Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society Evolution and the Theory of Games: In situations characterized by conflict of interest, the best strategy to adopt depends on what others are doing Author(s): J. Maynard Smith Source: American Scientist, Vol. 64, No. 1 (January-February 1976), pp. 41-45 Published by: Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27847040 . Accessed: 28/08/2011 12:48 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to American Scientist. http://www.jstor.org J.Maynard Evolution Smith and the Theory of Games In situations characterized by conflict of interest, . the best strategy to adopt depends on what others are doing in this article to trace the troduced, the concept of an "evolu an It is to idea. of tionarily stable strategy/' It is the history beginning become clear that a range of prob history of this concept I want to dis cuss. lems in evolution theory can most a be attacked by appropriately modification of the theory of games, Evolution of the sex ratio a branch of mathematics first for first the evolution of the and Consider mulated by Von Neumann sex ratio. In most animals and (1944) for the analysis Morgenstern with of human conflicts. The problems separate sexes, approxi plants are diverse and include not only the mately equal numbers of males and in contest sit females are produced. Why should behavior of animals in this be so? Two main kinds of an uations but also some problems swer have been offered. One is the evolution of genetic mecha in terms of advantage to couched nisms and in the evolution of eco the population. It is argued that the systems. It is not, however, suffi cient to take over the theory as it sex ratio will evolve so as to maxi in sociology and be mize the number of meetings has been developed sex. to In tween of it evolution. individuals sociology, opposite apply it is supposed is essentially a "group selec This and in economics, tion" argument. The other, and in that each contestant works out by to my view certainly correct, type of the best strategy reasoning answer was first put forward by adopt, assuming that his opponents are equally guided by reason. This Fisher (1930). It starts from the as leads to the concept of a "minimax" sumption that genes can influence the relative numbers of male and strategy, in which a contestant be female offspring produced by an in haves in such a way as to minimize dividual his losses on the assumption that carrying the genes. That sex ratio will be favored which max his opponent behaves so as to maxi imizes the number of descendants mize them. Clearly, this would not to animal con the individual will have and hence be a valid approach the number of gene copies transmit flicts. A new concept has to be in ted. Suppose that the population consisted mostly of females: then an which individual Smith was born in 1920. He John Maynard only produced and worked during trained as an engineer sons would have more grandchil World War II in aircraft design. After the dren. In contrast, if the population Col war, he studied zoology at University it would consisted mostly of males, J. later worked under where he lege London, to have new In 1965 he went to the B. S. Haldane. pay daughters. If, however, as the first dean of the consisted of equal the population University of Sussex Sciences. His School experi of Biological numbers of males and females, sons concerned been mainly work has mental be equally would and daughters and behavior with the genetics, physiology, valuable. Thus a 1:1 sex ratio is the has theoretical He published of Drosophila. on animal evolution locomotion, only stable ratio; it is an "evolution papers and has written ?r ily stable strategy." four theory, and ecology I want Theory of Evolution, Mathemati On Evolution, and in Biology, cal Ideas in Ecology. Address: Models Biology Build books: The University ing, The Brighton, Sussex BN1 of Sussex, 9QG, England. Falmer, Fisher allowed for the fact that the cost of sons and daughters may be different, so that a parent might have a choice, say, between having one daughter or two sons. He con cluded that a parent should allocate equal resources to sons and daugh ters. Although Fisher wrote before the theory of games had been devel oped, his theory does incorporate the essential feature of a game? that the best strategy to adopt de pends on what others are doing. Since that time, it has been realized that genes can sometimes influence the chromosome or gamete inwhich they find themselves, so as to make that gamete more likely to partici pate in fertilization. If such a gene occurs on a sex-determining (X or then Y) chromosome, highly aber rant sex ratios can evolve. immediately relevant are the strange sex ratios in certain parasit ic hymenoptera (wasps and ichneu In this group of insects, monids). into females fertilized eggs develop and unfertilized eggs into males. A female stores sperm and can deter mine the sex of each egg she lays by fertilizing it or leaving it unfertil it ized. By Fisher's argument, More should stfjlp$tyQf%w$\etoproduce equal numbers of sons and daugh it can be ters. More precisely, shown that if genes affect the strat egy adopted by the female, then a 1:1 sex ratio will evolve. Some par asitic wasps lay their eggs in the lar vae of other insects, and the eggs within their host. When develop adult wasps emerge, they mate im Such before dispersal. mediately species often have a big excess of fe males. This situation was analyzed byHamilton (1967). Clearly, ifonly one female lays eggs in any given larva, it would pay her to produce one male only, since this one male could fertilize all his sisters on emergence. Things get more com 1976 January-February 41 if a single host larva is plicated found by two parasitic females, but the details of the analysis do not concern us. The important point is looked for an "un that Hamilton beatable is, a sex strategy"?that ratio which would be evolutionarily stable. In effect, he used Fisher's approach but went a step farther in recognizing that he was looking for a "strategy" in the sense in which that word is used by game theorists. Animal contests and game theory journal. I then thought no more of the matter until, about a year later, I spent three months visiting the department of theoretical biology at I decided to spend the Chicago. visit learning something about the theory of games, with a view to de veloping Price's idea in a more gen eral form and applying it to certain I was at that time other problems. work on familiar with Hamilton's work the the sex ratio (indeed, formed part of his Ph.D. thesis, of which I was the external examiner), but I had not seen its relevance to Price's problem. A very similar idea was used by the I developed at Chicago, the While late G, R. Price in an analysis of an formal definition of an evolutionari imal behavior. Price was puzzled by ly stable strategy which I will give the evolution of ritualized behavior in a moment and applied it to the in animal contests?that is, by the "Dove-Hawk-Retaliator" and an a in fact that animal engaged "War of Attrition" games. I also re contest for some valuable resource in alized the similarity between these does not always use its weapons ideas and the work of Hamilton of the most effective way. Examples 1965) on the (and also MacArthur such behavior have been discussed sex came I to write up ratio. When by Lorenz (1966), Huxley (1966), this work, it was clearly necessary that and others. It seems likely I was to quote Price. somewhat have underestimated ethologists to discover that taken aback he had the frequency and importance of es never was his idea and published contests between all-out calated, on something now working else. animals Geist (see particularly I returned to London I con When 1966). Yet display and convention we and tacted him, ultimately are a common enough feature of an pub a joint paper lished (Maynard imal contests to call for some expla Smith and Price 1973) inwhich the nation. Both Lorenz and Huxley ac stable concept of an evolutionarily selectionist cepted group explana was con to animal strategy applied tions: Huxley, for example, argued tests. that escalated contests would result inmany animals being seriously in At this point itwill be convenient to "this would militate jured, and describe some ideas from the theory against the survival of the species." of games. By "game" or "contest" is Similar assumptions are widespread an encounter between two in ethology, although not often so meant am not concerned individuals (I clearly expressed. with in which the -person games) outcomes would various was possible a to accept Price reluctant not be placed in the same order of oc selection It group explanation. preference by the two participants: curred to him that ifanimals adopt there is a conflict of interest. By ed a strategy of "retaliation," in a complete is meant "strategy" an which animal normally adopts of what a contestant specification conventional tactics but responds to an escalated attack by escalating in will do in every situation in which he might find himself. A strategy return, this might be favored by se be "pure" or "mixed"; a pure may lection at the individual level. He states "in situation A, al strategy submitted a paper to Nature argu do X"; a mixed strategy states me was to ways sent which this point, ing "in situation A, do X with probabil to referee. Unfortunately the paper was some fifty pages in length and forNature. hence quite unsuitable I wrote a report saying that the paper contained an interesting idea, and that the author should be urged to submit a short account of it to Nature and/or to submit the exist to a more suitable ing manuscript 42 American Scientist, Volume 64 ity and Y with probabilityQ." that there are three possi Suppose ble strategies, A, B, and C. A is then a 3 X 3 ma "payoff matrix" trix listing the expected gains to a contestant these three adopting strategies, given that his opponent adopts one of the other strategies. These ideas will be made clearer by an example. Consider the children's In "Rock-Scissors-Paper." game each contest, a player niust adopt in ad one of these "strategies" vance: then Rock blunts Scissors, and Paper cuts Paper, Scissors that the win wraps Rock. Suppose ner of each contest receives one dol lar from the loser; if both adopt the same strategy, no money changes hands. The payoff matrix is R R S S 0 -1 + 1 + 1 o -1 -1 + 1 o The payoffs are to the player on the left.This particular game is a "zero sum" game, in the sense that what one player wins the other loses; in general the games considered below are not of this kind. Clearly, a play er adopting the pure strategy "Rock" will lose in the long run, be cause his opponent will catch on and play "Paper." A player adopt ing themixed strategy"% Rock, % Scissors, % Paper" will break even. How are these ideas to be applied to animal contests? A genotype deter mines the strategy, pure or mixed, that an animal will adopt. Suppose an animal adopts strategy / and his the then opponent strategy J; payoff to / will be written Ej{I)} where E stands for "expected gain." This payoff is the change in J's fit ness as a result of the contest, fit ness being the contribution to fu ture generations. Evolutionarily strategy stable We are now in a position to define an evolutionarily stable strategy, or ESS for short. Suppose that a popu lation consists of individuals adopt ing strategies I ox J with frequen 4- q = 1.What cies and q, where an individual adopt is the fitness of ing strategy /? Fitness Fitness oil = ??/(/) + q<Ej(I) of J = p-?,(J) + q-Ej(J) If a particular strategy, say /, is to it must have the fol be an ESS, lowing property. A population of in dividuals playing / must be "pro tected" against invasion by any mu tant strategy, say J. That is, when I is common, it must be fitter than any mutant. That is, / is an ESS if, for all J 9^1, eitherEi(I) > EAJ) orEjd) = E/(J) and Ej(I) > Ej(J) injured. (1) are satisfied, If these conditions of individuals then a population can playing J is stable; no mutant establish itself in such a population. follows from the fact that This when q is small, the fitness of / is greater than the fitness of J. It is important to emphasize at this is not necessari point that the ESS as same the the strategy pre ly theorists for scribed by game human players. There the assump tion is that a player will adopt that strategy which minimizes his losses, given that his opponent plays so as them. Lewontin to maximize (1961) such "minimax" strategies applied to evolution. He was concerned with a contest not between individuals but between a species and "nature." The objective of a species is to sur avoid extinc vive as a species?to tion. It should therefore adopt that its minimizes which strategy chances of extinction, even ifnature does its worst. That is, the species must adopt the minimax strategy. For example, a species should retain rather than sexual reproduction this will because parthenogenesis, enable it to evolve to meet environ is clearly a mental change. This group selectionist approach; the ad vantage is to the species and not to the individual female. In contrast, the concept of an evolutionarily sta ble strategy is relevant to contests between individuals, not between a is con and species and nature, individual ad cerned solely with vantage. us now apply these ideas to a that Suppose problem. particular two animals are engaged in a con test for some indivisible resource which isworth + V to the victor. An it can "esca animal can "display," late"?in which case itmay serious it can re ly injure its opponent?or its treat, leaving opponent the vic tor. Serious injury reduces fitness ? W and forces an (a "wound") by animal to retreat. Finally, a long contest costs both animals ?T. The two simplest strategies are Let Hawk. and continue Escalate, to do so until injured or until opponent retreats. Dove. Display. Retreat if oppo nent escalates, before getting We are two Hawks that suppose equally likely to be injured or to that two also win. We suppose Doves are equally likely to win, but only after a long contest costing both of them -T. The payoff ma trix is then D H H = V ? tub payoff to A = -m? payoff to v 0 D %V-T If W > V, then there is no pure is not an ESS, ESS. Thus H be cause Eh(H) < Eh(D), and D is not an ESS, because ED(D) < ED(H). The onlyESS is with probability (2T + V)/ (2T+W) D with probability1 (2T + V)/ (2T + W) at an evolutionary Thus equilibri um the population will consist of a mixture of Hawks and Doves.. Price's suggestion was that a third fi, might be strategy, "Retaliator," an ESS; fi plays D against D and is against H. The payoff matrix H %(V- W) o R d H d One assumption made above?that can settle a contest? two Doves needs some justification. Why don't the they go on forever? Consider following game. Two players, A and B, can only display. The winner is the one who goes on for longer; the only choice of strategy is how long to go on for. A selects time Ta and selects Tg. The longer th? contest actually continues, the more it costs the costs associated the players; with these times are jua and ms. If Ta > Tb, then we have v y2v-T R %(V- W) %v- WO y2v-T %v It turns out that Price was right. a population Thus of R is stable against invasion by mutant H, be cause Er(R) > Eft(H). R is not sta in the ab ble against D, because sence of they are identical. But a population consisting initially of a will evolve mixture of R, D, and to fi. This game is analyzed further inMaynard Smith and Price (1973) and by Gale and Eaves cost of tyia which A was pre pared to pay is irrelevant, provided that it is greater than ?. Our a play is: should How then problem er choose a time, and a correspond precisely, ing value of m? More what choice of m is an ESS? For ob vious reasons, I have called this the "War of Attrition." Clearly, no pure strategy can be an ESS. Any popu lation playing m, say, could be in vaded by a mutant playing M, The whereM > m; ifm > V/2yit could also be invaded by a mutant playing 0. It can be shown that there is a mixed ESS givenby p(x) = ^e-*<v (2) is the probability of p(x)?x . m 4and between playing where are There does this mean? What an ESS in which two possible ways of this kind could be realized. First, of the population all members identical and might be genetically have a behavior pattern which var ied from contest to contest accord ing to Eq. 2. Second, the population might be genetically variable, with each individual having a fixed be havior, the frequencies of different kinds of individuals being given by Eq. 2. In either case, the population would be at an ESS. (1975). G. A. Parker (1970) has described a situation which agrees rather well that we This analysis suggests would expect to find retaliation a with Eq. 2. Female dung flies of the feature of actual behavior. One ex lay their eggs in genus Scatophaga cow mon The males a must suffice: rhesus stay close to pats. ample cow with females a the will which loses mating pats, key passive fight to their as arrive will but retal incisor bites eggs. lay accept they ly iate viciously if the winner uses its What strategy should a male adopt? Should he stay with a pat once he and Gordon canines (Bernstein found one, or should he move has 1974). 1976 January-February 43 on in search of a fresh pat as soon as the first one begins to grow stale? to the choice of This is comparable a value of m in theWar of Attrition. His choice will be influenced by the fact that females arrive less fre quently as a pat becomes staler. His best strategy will depend on what other males are doing. Thus if other leave a pat quickly, it would males he pay him to stay on, because would be certain of mating any fe males which do come. If other males stay on, itwould pay him tomove. tants but have relatively little effect or on payoff. The obvious on RHP example is the asymmetry between the "owner" of a resource (e.g. a ter ritory, a female, an item of food) and a "latecomer." There is no gen eral reason why an owner should have a higher RHP than a latecom er. The value of a resource will often be greater to the owner, but, no as I shall show in a moment, such difference is necessary before an asymmetry can be used to settle a contest conventionally. American Scientist, Volume 64 in practice The baboon, Papio hamadryas lives in troops com hamadryas, of a number of "one-male posed groups," each consisting of an adult one or more females, and male, their babies. The male, who is sub stantially larger than the females, prevents "his" females from wan dering away from his immediate vi cinity; a female rapidly comes to It is this "ownership." recognize rare for an owning male to be chal lenged by another. How is this state of affairs maintained? of Parker found that the actual length To fix ideas, consider the game of time males stayed was given by a Hawks and Doves discussed above, with the arbitrary values V = 60, W distribution 2. By resembling Eq. = 10. The it is = 100, and itself this means little, because payoff ma the distribution one would expect if trix for the symmetrical case is then every male had the same constant probability of leaving per unit time. D H It is the typical negative exponen for the +50 tial distribution -20 expected "survivors" of a population suffer 0 +20 D ing a constant "force of mortality." What is significant is that Parker that an animal may be ei Suppose was able to show that the expected owner of the resource or a the ther was same for number ofmatings the latecomer, for a particular animal is males which left early as for those equally likely to find himself which stayed on. This means that now playing either role. Consider the males are adopting an ESS; nat are if the /: you "Play strategy ural selection the has adjusted D ifyou are latecomer." owner; play of unit time leaving per probability Then, since an animal is owner and to bring this about. latecomer with equal frequency, It is not known whether contests Ej(I) = % X 50 + % X 0 = +25 between pairs of animals, in which only display is employed, show the let J be a strategy which ig in length. It Now variation appropriate nores the asymmetry and plays to out. find will be interesting and D with prob with probability Then (1 A major in ability p). applying complication these ideas in practice arises be Ei(J) = %[50p + 20(1 p)] + cause most contests are asymmetri = Smith cal (Parker 1974; Maynard 5p + 10 %[-20p] and Parker, in press), either in the > Ei(J). For any value of p, Ej(I) fighting ability of the contestants in "re amounts has the which Thus what called Parker (i.e. strategy J, or to of the conventional acceptance RHP), source-holding potential," or in the value of the resource to the is an ESS ownership, against any contestants (i.e. in payoff). Clearly, strategy which ignores ownership. can only affect these asymmetries (Notice that the game permits the if you are alternative ESS, "play if they are the strategies adopted Thus known to the contestants. latecomer; play D ifyou are owner." raises difficulties which are suppose two animals differ in size, This Smith and discussed and hence in RHP, but have no way by Maynard short of escalation of detecting the Parker, in press.) difference. Then the difference can It follows that conventional to esca not alter their willingness accep late (i.e. their strategy), although it tance of ownership can be used to settle contests even when there is would affect the outcome of an es no asymmetry in payoff or RHP, calated contest. is unam that ownership provided In some cases an asymmetry may be Some actual biguous. examples will help to illustrate this point. clearly perceived by both contes 44 The ESS the fol (1971) describes lowing experiment. Two males, pre to each other, viously unknown were placed in an enclosure; male A was free to move about the enclo was shut in a sure whereas male see what from which he could cage was happening but not interfere. A female strange to both males was then loosed into the enclosure. Within 20 minutes male A had con vinced the female of his ownership, so that she followed him about. was then released into the Male He did not challenge enclosure. male A, but kept well away from him, accepting A's ownership. Kummer ex can be observations in two male ways. First, plained may have been able to detect that male A would win an escalated con test if challenged; there second, acceptance may be a conventional of ownership, for the reasons out lined above. Kummer was able to is show that the second explanation correct. Two weeks later, he repeat ed the experiment with the same two males but with a different fe male, but on this occasion male was loose in the enclosure and male A confined. Male established of the female and was ownership not challenged by A. These One last observation is relevant. If a male is removed from a troop, his females will be taken over by other males. If after some weeks the origi nal male is reintroduced, an escalat ed fight occurs; both males now be have It as "owners." that be argued is a there baboon hamadryas ence in payoff, because when first takes over a new female to invest time and energy could in the differ a male he has in per on conventional based acceptance suading her to accept his owner is probably of ownership. Gilbert showed that correct, al ship. This is correct by the the latter explanation theoretical though analysis an experiment analogous to that of shows that no such difference is re a an male of for the establishment hamadryas baboon removing quired from a troop and then restoring it. ESS based on conventional accep tance of ownership. An asymmetry He allowed two male butterflies to in payoff is less likely in the anubis occupy a hilltop on alternate days, In this baboon (Packer 1975). keeping each in the dark on their off days. After two weeks, when species, there is a fairly stable male had come to regard dominance both males hierarchy for food but not for females. Females are not the themselves as owners of the same them on the permanent property of particular hilltop, he released same day. A contest lasting many instead, a male "owns" a fe males; for minutes and causing damage to the male only for a single day?or ensued. contestants several days if he can prevent her from moving away during the night. in temporary possession of a Much has been left out of these Once in which is not challenged, Contests female, a male simple models. even by those above him in the information about partial only con to is the available should dominance asymmetries hierarchy. Why contests about food and females be testants, or in which information is in the course of a contest, settled differently? One possible ex acquired are discussed Smith is that the ownership by Maynard planation same not to The settle could be used and Parker (in press). principle the possibility of contests over food, because itmust paper discusses of "bluff'?that often be the case that two animals is, the possession see a food item almost structures such as manes, ruffs, or simulta am increase would be crests, which apparent neously. Ownership re an in two both RHP without animals would equivalent biguous; as owners crease in of actual the themselves ability. fighting gard same item, and escalated contests I suggested at the beginning of this would ensue. is article that the concept of an ESS This last possibility is beautifully il also relevant to the evolution of this idea is developed lustrated by the work of L. Gilbert ecosystems; Smith and Lawlor (in by Maynard (pers. comm.) on the swallowtail It zelicaon. is Because butterfly, Papilio impossible to do more press). here than indicate the nature of the this is a relatively rare butterfly, the In nature, animals and problem. finding of a sexual partner presents a problem. This problem is solved plants compete for resources?food, Males establish space, light, etc. Genetic changes in by "hilltopping." an individual can alter its "choice" territories at or near the tops of of resources: for example, the food hills, and virgin females fly uphill to mate. There items taken by an animal, or the are, however, more time of year a plant puts out its males than hilltops, so most males leaves. Individuals will choose their must accept territories lower down resources so as to maximize the slopes. They attempt to waylay their fitness. The best choice will depend females on their way up and, al on what other individuals, of the though they sometimes succeed, the same and other species, are doing. If evidence suggests that the male ac it everyone else is eating spinach tually at the hilltop mates most will pay to concentrate on cabbage; often. Gilbert marked individual since most forest trees put out their males and observed that a strange arrive at a leaves late in spring, it pays forest male did occasionally herbs to put out leaves early. hilltop and challenge the owner, but retreated the stranger invariably after a brief "contest." Since the appropriate strategy for an individual depends on what oth ers are doing, we are again con As in Rummer's experiments with cerned with the search for an ESS. baboons, we have to choose between that two and I conclude two explanations. Either the owner Lawlor of a hilltop is a particularly strong competing species will tend to be on different re come specialists butterfly, and this fact is perceived a even brief the sources, by challenger during though in isolation each species would be a generalist. contest, or there is again an ESS This conclusion is not a new one: it accords with a good deal of observa tional data and has received several previous theoretical treatments. We would claim, however, that we have clarified a familiar idea and set it in a wider context. That wider context the best is simply this: whenever an for individual depends strategy on what others are doing, the strat will be an egy actually adopted ESS. References 1974. The L S., and T. P. Gordon. Bernstein, in primate societies. function of aggression Am. Sci. 62:304-11. Fisher, R. A. 1930. The Selection. Natural Genetical Oxford Press. of Theory University 1975. Logic Gale, J. S., and L. J. Eaves. 254:463-64. animal conflict. 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