An International perspective on the status of Fibre investment in the access layer Stefano Nicoletti [email protected] +44 207 551 9178 14/12/2007 © Copyright Ovum 2007 www.ovum.com Agenda 2 Some figures FTTx plans IPTV case studies © Copyright Ovum 2007 Level 3data on fibre Some © Copyright Ovum 2007 www.ovum.com FTTP -10 leading countries –subscribers # 8,000 7,000 Subscribers (000s) 6,000 5,000 2005 4,000 2006 3,000 2,000 1,000 N or w ay ly Ita Ta iw an a R us si ar k D en m U S w ed en S Ko ng H on g Ja pa n K or ea - FTTP = FTTH or apartment + Ethernet LAN; VDSL excluded 4 © Copyright Ovum 2007 FTTP – forecasts to 2011 60% 50% Korea Japan 40% Hong Kong Sweden US 30% Denmark Russia Taiwan 20% Italy Norway 10% 0% 2005 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figures in % of Households; Asia expected to widen the gap © Copyright Ovum 2007 Non-DSL connection vs FTTP as% of total broadband 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non-DSL 6 Ita D ly ev N el or op ed wa D ev co y el un op tri in e g co s un tri es Ta iw an a R us si ar k D en m U S Ja pa H n on g Ko ng S w ed en K or ea 0% FTTP Infrastructure competition seems to favour FTTP take-up © Copyright Ovum 2007 Availability of high-speed services is an issue Key Total Households Households with copper access Households that can get DSL Households that can get DSL @ 2Mbps Households that can get DSL @ 10Mbps 7 © Copyright Ovum 2007 Western Europe North America Asia Pac Eastern Europe Monthly fee relative to monthly disposable income % of disposable income 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Lowest fee 8 y rw a N o ly Ita n T ai w a a ss i R u ar k nm U S D e S w ed en ng K o ng H o Ja pa n K or e a 0% Highest fee All countries except Russia and Norway have entry product below 3%; In line with prices of other technologies © Copyright Ovum 2007 IPTV ‘v’ consumer fixed voice Hong Kong – most successful IPTV country in the world 1200 1000 Revenue (US$) 800 IPTV revenues fixed voice revenues 600 400 200 12,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10,000 Revenue (US$) 8,000 IPTV revenues fixed voice revenues 6,000 4,000 2,000 France – most successful IPTV country in Europe 0 2005 9 © Copyright Ovum 2007 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FTTx plans © Copyright Ovum 2007 www.ovum.com FTTH plans Country Operator/aut hority FTTH plans Current subscribers (Q307) Korea MIC 10M subscribers in Korea by 2010. 4.6M KT 92% homes-passed by 2010 (~16.9M households). Cumulative CAPEX: FY07- US$435M; FY08 – US$783M; FY10 – US$1.3B. 2.2M Hanaro ~US$120M in 2007, targeting 12.6M homes passed by FY07. 1.3M Powercomm Japan NTT 20M subscriber target for FY2010. US$47B budgeted for 2006-2010. 7.4M Hong Kong HKBN 2M homes passed (95% household coverage) by 2010. Total CAPEX budget for FY08 – US$22.5M. 220,000 (Q207) US Verizon 18M homes passed by 2010. US$23B for 20062010, however this does not take account of a US$4. 9 B that would otherwise be required to maintain traditional copper plant during the same period. 1.3M Denmark DCA Est. US$1.3B by municipals, for a targeted 1M subscribers. Source: Ovum research 11 820k © Copyright Ovum 2007 Korea and Japan U-Japan (ubiquitous Japan) 2006-10 program by MIC, revised every year Eliminate “zero broadband coverage” towns and villages by 2008 High speed broadband to cover 90% of population by 2010 Support investment through funding, tax relief, loans Support competition through open access to poles, ducts and physical infrastructure KII- Korean information Infrastructure Plan started in 1995 As of 2000 –Govt and operators invested W11trillion Broadband development in rural areas a main objective, KT forced to roll-out coverage in remote villages Incentives to invest through cheaper finance or extended loans Govt objectives to remove digital divide AS WELL AS improve broadband speed 12 © Copyright Ovum 2007 Australia, Singapore, UK…public money on the way! New Australian Labour govt.– broadband to the bush 13 AUS $4.7billion ($4.1bn) to invest in FTTN infrastructure and cover 98% Public private partnerships Tender process to allocate the money: Telstra, G9 consortium, Deutsche Telekom; 6 months only! Doubling Telstra money announced in its investment plan in 2005 UK – Stephen Timms – new minister for competitiveness “Ultra-fast broadband …will allow our businesses to innovate, grow and create wealth. We need to be discussing today how we can put this new network into place, because delay could be a barrier to the future success of our economy.” Estimated cost for FTTH in UK = £ 15 bn; FTTN £7bn (respectively 30 and 14bn$) Singapore Government and two new RFPs Netco to build and operate a Layer 1 passive infrastructure Public funding for S$750mln ($520 mln) Operating co.(Opco) to deploy electronics, switches and routers, and offer wholesale broadband access to downstream Service provider Public money for FTTN and infrastructure upgrades is coming © Copyright Ovum 2007 The French fibre race Wholesale DSL LLU FT retail Source: Ovum research Aggressive plans from incumbents as well as competitors Unique situation in Europe Re-use of public infrastructure essential (e.g. Paris, Marseille) Early start of LLU empowered competitors and provides financial strength for stepping the last step of investment ladder 14 © Copyright Ovum 2007 KPN and its NGA plan KPN announces an all-IP investment plan in November 2005 From 21 local exchanges;1350MDF;28.000 street cabinets… …to14 central locations,150 Metro core exchanges, 24.000 street cabinets …and replacing copper with fibre in between the MDF and the street cabinets Plan To be carried out within 2011 This means LLU will disappear (2011 but optimistic) and Sub loop unbundling will be introduced OPTA taking into account SDF investment but also Revenues for selling MDF locations Savings from announced dismissal of 8,000 work force (about ¼ of KPN!!) Future prices for SDF expected to be in line with current MDF- Full LLU/Shared access OPTA assumes a 5 year pay back period for OAOs business cases for MDF, they have opened a consultation and received business cases whose life span was 3-5 years. A minimum of 2 years for phasing out exchanges Functional separation ruled out Is there a case for SDF access? OPTA considers option must be given 15 © Copyright Ovum 2007 ADSL v FTTCab v FTTP To deliver TV service over: ADSL from the exchange: ~$200 per year FTTCab: additional investment of ~$900* FTTH: additional investment of ~$1,800* If ROI is over a 3 year period, that is $25 and $50 per month In some cases FTTx brings cost savings in other areas Reduction in opex Reduction in churn 16 © Copyright Ovum 2007 * Based on Ovum’s modelling and operator financial reports IPTV Case studies © Copyright Ovum 2007 www.ovum.com Verizon – throwing technology at the problem 18 Fios TV built on FTTH technology 8.5 million homes passed, 18 million targeted by 2010. As over Q3 2007, 717 thousand Fios TV customers Probably the most technically advanced TV service in the world Largest choice of HDTV channels multi room PVR, up to 6 separate remote terminals Video on demand, tV channels, pictures Competes on price, quality, package flexibility and functionality , the whole package for around 60$ (different options 80% of Fios TV customers take triple play package Pick and mix menu: basic package, plus premium entertainment, plus hardware © Copyright Ovum 2007 Now TV – a true media company - ARPU has increased from HK$57 to HK$166 in 3.5 years - 68% are pay TV customers - First to introduce HDTV - Quickly catching the competition 900 800 TV subscribers (000s) 700 - Exclusive content rights: UK Premier 600 league, UEFA 2008,etc. 500 PCCW i-cable 400 -7 channels delivered on PCCW’s quadplay 200 100 0 2004 H1 19 - Flexible payTV channels 300 © Copyright Ovum 2007 2004 H2 2005 H1 2005 H2 2006 H1 2006 H2 2007 H1 -- pricing in between 20 -80 $ depending on the package Creating interactive services around premium content 20 Sports Barker – viewers can watch promotional videos of sports programming and view live match fixtures of all now SPORTS channels Live Match Info – head-to-head statistics, team line-up, player profiles, team fixtures, Live match scores of all games available at a glance Player-of-the-Match Voting – instant voting and results available © Copyright Ovum 2007 “The future is Orange” 21 Build on existing satellite content Expand to multi-screen experience Expand into content creation and production Expand into consumer electronics © Copyright Ovum 2007 Thank you !! Stefano Nicoletti [email protected] +44 207 551 9178 14/12/2007 © Copyright Ovum 2007 www.ovum.com Non -Network neutrality al Grand hotel Brun! 23 © Copyright Ovum 2007
© Copyright 2024 Paperzz