INVESTMENT RESEARCH FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE - 3M INDIA LIMITED Dated : 10 th July 2017 Investment Rationale BUY Price ` Fair Value Upside Div Yield Tenure Sensex Nifty Group/Index 13700 17200 26% 1 Year 31715.64 9763.05 B / S&P BSE 500 Stock Details M.cap (` in cr) 15440 Equity (` In cr) 11.27 52 wk H/L ` 15200/10055 Face Value ` 10.00 3MINDIA NSE code 523395 BSE code Key Valuation Ratios RONW 20% P/E 64.14 P/BV 12.6 EV/EBIDTA 35.60 IN ` Key Financial Data EV (`in cr) 14888.81 BV (`in cr) 1088.20 NW(`in cr) 1226.40 EPS (TTM) 213.60 Share Holding Pattern Promoter 3M India is a 75% subsidiary of 3M Company, USA. 3m India has benefitted from increased focus in consumption business with the adoption of new business models especially in the areas of automotive care and healthcare & has increased investment in new digital initiative. Company also laid down the foundation for robust e-commerce plan to drive the sales of its products and solutions. During FY17, the company has recorded a modest growth of 10% in top line Despite demonetization, which impacted its sales to some extent, company achieved sales targets for the year. Every retail outlet, where popular product Scotch-Brite is sold, did not have PoS machines for consumers to swipe their cards. Company achieved 10% top line growth and above 20% growth in the bottom-line in FY17. Expects double digit growth in FY 18 E-commerce contribution to triple Company exploring newer avenues to increase the reach of its products to consumers as well as businesses through online channels. Company's products sell on Amazon, Flipkart and Snapdeal & its sales is growing at over 70% each year. Currently, ecommerce marketplaces contribute to 3% of co's sales and aiming at increasing it to 10% in the next five years., tripling its contribution, as it looks at double-digit growth in the country with locally designed products for industrial, consumers, health care and safety products Strong R&D capabilities: 3M is largely known for consumer products like Scotch-Brite and Post-it. 3M is a multi-sector, multiproduct company with core technology platforms. Today, company sell over 10,000 products in India and looking at launching home decoration and festive decoration products for the upcoming festival season. Company's R&D lab is developing several new products across all verticals. Company working on many mega trends in the automotive sector. The product is still in the design stage and working with car OEMs to bring it to the market. The automobile industry is set to grow 8% this year, while company expects its growth to be in high-teen range (between 13% and 19%). Company also developed multi enzyme cleaners used for cleaning instruments (Surgical, Medical and Dental Instruments including Endoscopes) in hospitals. Others 25% Moreover, company doing this, both with its traditional Post-it range as well as a series of new 75% launches in second half of the year , including the repositionable whiteboard films, which will transform collaboration in offices. Apart from this, company also developed infection prevention products for hospitals and chronic wound care products in its healthcare division. VALUATION (` In Cr except per share) FY 18Est. Earnings Equity Share Capital FV No. of Equity Shares 292.82 11.27 10.00 1.13 260 66 17200 EPS(FY18 Est.) Estimated P/E Ratio Estimated Price/share Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's Source: Google Page 1 Year End Tax Rate % Receivable days Div. Payout % www.rudrashares.com 201703 34.79 56.00 - 201603 35.74 48.30 - 201503 34.16 51.00 - 201403 37.76 - RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Quarterly and yearly Results: The net sales have increased 11% Y-o-Y to ` 623.91 crore. All segments showed good growth. The OPM inclined by 449 bps to 21.7% due to decrease in purchase of stock in trade, other expenditure and employee cost to adjusted net sales. The operating profit grew by 40% to ` 135.62 crore. The other income has increased by 143% to ` 15.59 crore. The depreciation charges decreased by 8% to ` 11.46 crore. The PBT has increased by 55% to ` 138.44 crore. The tax outgo decreased by 91% to ` 48.05 crore. The effective tax rate increased from 28.1% to 34.7% Y-o-Y. The PAT increased by 41% to ` 90.39 crore due to rise in sales, OPM and other income Performance for year ended March 2017 The net sales have increased 10% Y-o-Y to ` 2362.98 crore. The OPM declined by 12bps to 15.6%. The operating profit grew by 10% to ` 368.77 crore. The other income has increased by 177% to ` 49.47 crore . The depreciation charges decreased by 4% to ` 46.75 crore. The PBT has increased by 22% to ` 369.22 crore. The tax outgo increased by19% to ` 128.46 crore. The effective tax rate came down from 35.74% to 34.79% Y-o-Y. The PAT increased by 24% to `240.76 crore. SEGMENT WISE BREAKUP OF REVENUE Quarterly & Yearly Results Analysis Graphical presentation Q4 FY 2016-17 & FY 2017 Results: Revenue EBITDA EBITDA % PBT PBT% PAT PAT % EPS Standalone Results Quarter Ended % Change Q4 FY 17 Q3 FY 17 Q4 FY 16 648.29 598.99 585.48 8.23% 151.20 76.88 103.35 96.67% 23.32% 12.83% 17.65% 138.43 64.86 89.49 113.43% 21.35% 10.83% 15.28% 90.39 42.43 64.31 113.03% 13.94% 7.08% 10.98% 113.01% 80.24 37.67 57.09 ` in crores % Change 10.73% 46.30% 54.69% 40.55% 40.55% Year Ended FY 17 FY 16 2457.84 2223.75 418.22 354.26 17.02% 15.93% 369.21 303.10 15.02% 13.63% 240.75 194.76 9.80% 8.76% 213.72 172.89 SEGMENT WISE BREAKUP(STANDALONE) Segment Wise Industrial Health care Quarter Ended Q4 FY 17 Q3 FY 17 Q4 FY 16 277.10 249.57 248.90 92.60 93.71 86.89 10.53% 18.05% 21.81% 10.21% 23.61% 11.84% 23.62% ` in crores % change Q-0-Q % change Y-0-Y 11.03% -1.18% 11.33% 6.57% Year Ended FY 17 FY 16 1057.70 962.36 373.55 323.77 % change Y-0-Y 9.91% 15.38% Safety Graphics Consumers 174.79 153.13 145.04 14.14% 20.51% 615.33 537.61 14.46% 61.18 64.45 57.7 -5.07% 6.03% 249.15 225.34 10.57% Energy 39.31 34.58 30.64 13.68% 28.30% 133.48 127.51 4.68% Others 3.31 3.55 16.30 -6.76% -79.69% 598.99 585.47 47.16 2223.75 -39.29% 648.29 28.63 2457.84 Inc. from operations Company Overview Company is the lagship listed Company of 3M Company, USA in India. 3M Company, USA holds 75% equity stake in the Company. 3M Company, USA is a diversified technology Company with a global presence in the following businesses: Industrial; Safety and Graphics; Electronics and Energy; Health Care; and Consumer. 3M is among the leading manufacturers of products for many of the markets it serves. Most 3M products involve expertise in product development, manufacturing and marketing, and are subject to competition from products manufactured and sold by other technologically oriented companies. Page 2 % Change www.rudrashares.com RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. OPPORTUNITY, RISK AND CONCERNS OPPORTUNITIES & THREAT 3M’s globally competitive cost positions and well crated business strategies have enabled it to retain its leading market positions. Company strongly believes in the 3M™ brand equity and its ability to provide its customers with innovative solutions. The Company is operating in a highly competitive market which may exert pressure both on the top line as well as the bottom line of the Company. As the Company’s products involve expertise in product development, manufacturing and marketing, are subject to competition from products manufactured and sold by other technologically oriented companies both within India and outside India. In addition, Inflation, rupee depreciation, high commodity prices and hardening interest rates remain key challenges RISKS & CONCERNS 1. Impact of increase in duties on the products of the Company & consequent increase in the cost of goods sold. 2. Prices of inputs are expected to rise significantly. Whilst the Company continues to pursue cost reduction initiatives, increase in price of input materials and rupee depreciation could impact the Company’s profitability 3. Fluctuations in exchange rates with reference to currencies in which the Company transacts. Valuation Conclusion Company exploring newer avenues to increase the reach of its products to consumers as well as businesses through online channels. Company earns around 3 % of its sales from e-commerce channels and aiming at increasing it to 10% in the next five years. Company is now eyeing a foray in India's defense sector & recently bagged a $64 million contract in the United States for the army in the area of soldier protection. The company is currently working with the Indian government on soldier protection program. It is already working with some defense manufacturing entities. 3m India has benefitted from increased focus in consumption business with the adoption of new business models especially in the areas of automotive care and healthcare & has increased investment in new digital initiative. Company also laid down the foundation for robust e-commerce plan to drive the sales of its products and solutions, which would enhance margins as well as profitability, going forward. Estimating the share price of the company as per P/E valuation, putting the estimated P/E of FY18E at 66x & the estimated EPS at ` 260, the estimated share price for next 1 year tenure turns around to be ` 17200. Therefore, we recommend to BUY. Page 3 www.rudrashares.com RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Particulars Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Op Income Misc.Inc (Exp.) Interest Exp EBT Taxes Net Inc(Reg) Extraord. Items Rep Net Inc EPS Particulars Sales Oth. operating Income Total Inc. from operations Operating EBITA Total Inc. from operations TOTAL EXPENDITURE EBITDA Depreciation Rep. profit before othrinc., fin.cost,tax & excp. Item Quarterly Results (` in cr except per share) LTM 201703 201612 201609 2347.20 623.91 576.23 565.50 418.20 151.21 76.90 86.36 46.80 11.46 11.73 11.80 371.50 139.75 65.17 74.56 49.50 15.59 11.86 11.14 2.30 1.31 0.31 0.31 369.20 138.44 64.87 74.26 128.50 48.04 22.44 26.04 240.80 90.39 42.43 48.21 240.80 90.39 42.43 48.21 213.60 80.20 37.65 42.78 Income Statement and Estimates ( ` in Cr except per share) 201403 201503 201603 201703 2018E 1708.43 1808.47 2139.60 2362.98 2652.34 33.91 31.83 1742.34 1840.30 2139.60 2362.98 2652.34 63.30 153.52 287.52 322.03 370.96 Profit & Loss 1742.34 1840.30 2139.60 2362.98 2652.34 1631.44 1637.18 1803.15 1994.20 2233.27 110.90 203.12 336.45 368.78 419.07 (47.60) (49.60) (48.93) (46.75) (48.11) 2019E 3010.25 3010.25 437.07 2020E 3438.89 3438.89 512.72 3010.25 2527.10 483.15 (46.08) 3438.89 2881.79 557.10 (44.38) 512.72 63.30 153.52 287.52 322.03 370.96 437.07 Goodwill amortization - - - - - - Rep. profit before othrinc., fin.cost,tax & excp. Item 63.30 153.52 287.52 322.03 370.96 437.07 512.72 OTHER INCOME 19.94 14.48 17.83 49.47 81.86 103.09 137.07 Profit from ordinary act. Before Fin.Cost ,TAX & Exp.Items 83.24 168.00 305.35 371.50 452.82 540.16 649.78 Reported Tax charge Reported Net profit Minorities P/L OF ASSOCIATE CO. Rep. NP after min. Int. Extra Ordinary income (14.17) (14.17) 69.07 (26.08) 42.99 42.99 - (3.42) (3.42) 164.58 (56.22) 108.36 108.36 - (2.25) (2.25) 303.10 (108.34) 194.76 194.76 - (2.27) (2.27) 369.23 (128.47) 240.76 240.76 - (2.32) (2.32) 450.50 (157.67) 292.82 292.82 - (2.52) (2.52) 537.64 (188.17) 349.47 349.47 - (2.96) (2.96) 646.82 (226.39) 420.43 420.43 - Rep.Net Income after extra ordinary items 42.99 108.36 194.76 240.76 292.82 349.47 420.43 42.99 38.15 3.00 108.36 96.15 0.60 EPS and Dividend 194.76 240.76 172.81 213.63 0.20 0.40 292.82 259.83 0.40 349.47 310.09 0.40 420.43 373.05 0.42 11.27 11.27 10.00 1.127 11.27 11.27 10.00 1.127 Number Of Shares 11.27 11.27 11.27 11.27 10.00 10.00 1.127 1.127 11.27 11.27 10.00 1.127 11.27 11.27 10.00 1.127 11.27 11.27 10.00 1.127 Net financials Interest income Interest expenses Net Financial Items Reported Pre-tax profit Dividend Paid Retained earnings Reported EPS DPS - originally declared Opening Balance Issued during the Period Closing Balance FV Wtd. Avg. no. of shares Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE. Page 4 201606 581.57 103.76 11.76 92.00 10.88 0.35 91.66 31.94 59.72 59.72 52.99 www.rudrashares.com RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Particulars Equity & Liabilities Shareholders' Fund Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Minority Interests BALANCE SHEET 201603 201703 201403 201503 2018E 2019E 2020E 11.27 688.16 699.43 11.27 796.45 807.72 11.27 976.81 988.08 11.27 1215.13 1226.40 11.27 1507.95 1519.22 11.27 1857.42 1868.69 11.27 2277.85 2289.12 6.74 10.96 17.70 7.54 18.54 26.08 5.72 14.49 20.21 4.62 21.91 26.53 3.87 23.66 27.53 3.12 25.56 28.68 2.41 27.60 30.01 Total current Liab. 108.45 129.43 129.95 2.76 370.59 156.68 128.28 9.34 294.30 225.69 138.02 56.79 420.50 399.84 188.45 57.33 645.62 424.37 214.84 64.21 703.42 481.64 243.83 71.91 797.39 550.22 278.55 80.54 909.32 Total Equity & Liab. 1087.72 1128.10 1428.79 1898.55 2250.18 2694.75 3228.45 Total Non-Current Assets 425.30 16.08 6.07 12.89 460.34 389.05 33.09 1.34 9.66 433.14 350.42 0.21 47.84 8.37 406.84 317.59 0.18 45.79 7.80 371.36 290.70 0.20 46.40 8.78 346.07 271.71 0.20 51.30 9.87 333.08 261.72 0.20 59.60 11.11 332.62 Current Assets Current Investments Inventories Trade Receivables Cash & cash Equiv. Short Term L&A Other current Assets Total current Assets Total Assets 258.24 265.18 59.70 44.29 0.00 627.41 1087.72 295.57 249.12 113.91 32.52 3.85 694.97 1128.10 292.38 317.15 370.88 0.70 40.85 1021.96 1428.79 331.78 407.92 744.16 0.62 42.70 1527.18 1898.55 371.33 450.90 1030.91 0.60 50.39 1904.13 2250.18 421.44 511.74 1370.67 0.60 57.19 2361.65 2694.75 481.44 584.61 1763.81 0.60 65.34 2895.80 3228.45 59.70 245.14 185.44 26.51% 113.91 135.82 21.91 2.71% 370.88 143.74 (227.14) - 744.16 193.07 (551.09) - 1030.91 218.71 (812.20) - 1370.67 246.95 (1123.72) - 1763.81 280.96 (1482.85) - 13.92 13.92 (46.75) (21.22) (21.22) (48.11) (27.09) (27.09) (46.08) (34.39) (34.39) (44.38) Total Shareholders' Fund Non-Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other LT Liabilities Deferred Tax Liability Long term Provisions Total Non-Current Liab. Current Liabilities Short term Borrowings Trade Payables Other current liability Short term Provisions Assets Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets Tangible fixed Assets Intangible Fixed Assets Non-current Invest. Long term L&A Other Non current Ass. Deferred tax receivables Cash & cash equivalents Other int. bearing assets Interest-bearing debt Net interest-bearing debt Net gearing (%) Investments Tangible assets Gross capex Sale of fixed assets Net capex Depreciation tangibles (47.28) 0.06 (47.22) (47.60) (5.23) 0.26 (4.97) (49.60) (10.92) 1.73 (9.19) (48.93) Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE. Page 5 www.rudrashares.com RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. 201403 83.24 47.60 47.60 (33.03) (9.67) 5.24 8.06 45.02 15.62 (26.08) 120.38 (14.17) CASH FLOW ANALYSIS 201503 201603 201703 168.00 305.35 371.50 49.60 48.93 46.75 49.60 48.93 46.75 (37.33) 5.05 (39.40) 2.25 (49.73) (90.77) 27.24 59.32 174.15 3.93 (12.30) 0.08 19.90 11.16 15.99 13.50 44.06 (56.22) (108.34) (128.47) 177.37 259.44 333.84 (3.42) (2.25) (2.27) 106.21 173.95 257.19 Net acqui./disposals Net cash flow (47.28) 0.06 (47.22) 58.99 58.99 58.99 (5.23) 0.26 (4.97) 168.98 168.98 168.98 (10.92) 1.73 (9.19) 248.00 248.00 248.00 Particulars Return on assets Return on equity ROCE 201403 - 201503 9.78% 14.38% 19.25% EBIT Margin Pre tax margin Net Profit Margin - 9.13% 8.94% 5.89% 14.27% 14.17% 9.10% Total asset turnover Fixed asset turnover Equity turnover - 1.66 4.52 2.44 Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio - Receivable Days Inventory Days Payable Days - Particulars EBIT Depreciation 2018E 452.82 48.11 48.11 (39.55) (42.98) 24.53 0.02 (57.97) (157.67) 285.28 (2.32) 2019E 540.16 46.08 46.08 (50.11) (60.84) 57.27 (53.69) (188.17) 344.37 (2.52) 2020E 649.78 44.38 44.38 (60.01) (72.87) 68.58 (64.30) (226.39) 403.48 (2.96) 331.57 282.96 341.86 400.52 13.92 13.92 345.49 345.49 345.49 (21.22) (21.22) 261.75 261.75 261.75 (27.09) (27.09) 314.77 314.77 314.77 (34.39) (34.39) 366.13 366.13 366.13 2018E 14.12% 21.33% 26.00% 2019E 14.13% 20.63% 24.97% 2020E 14.20% 20.22% 23.99% 15.72% 15.63% 10.19% 17.07% 16.98% 11.04% 17.94% 17.86% 11.61% 18.90% 18.81% 12.23% 1.67 5.79 2.38 1.42 7.07 2.13 1.28 8.72 1.93 1.22 10.70 1.78 1.16 12.89 1.65 2.36 1.36 0.39 2.43 1.74 0.88 2.37 1.85 1.15 2.71 2.18 1.47 2.96 2.43 1.72 3.18 2.66 1.94 51.00 91.87 45.90 96.97 48.30 89.28 58.22 79.36 56.00 86.43 84.11 58.32 59.09 87.01 99.34 46.77 58.36 86.68 96.17 48.87 58.18 86.33 95.66 48.86 1.87 1.73 Debt to Capital 0.14 0.13 Debt to Equity 0.17 0.15 Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE. 1.53 0.14 0.16 1.43 0.13 0.14 1.38 0.12 0.13 1.33 0.11 0.12 Dep. (ex goodwill) Mov. in Inventories Move. in Debtors Move. in Creditors Movement in Short term L&A Other W.C Inc./decrease Change in W.C Tax paid Operating Cash Flow Net interest Cash Earnings Gross CapEx Sale of fixed assets Net CapEx Free CF pre dividend Dividend Free CF post Dividend Conversion Cycle (Days) Financial Leverage Effect Page 6 RATIO ANALYSIS 201603 201703 15.23% 14.47% 21.69% 21.74% 30.45% 27.91% www.rudrashares.com RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Disclosures & Disclaimers Disclosures : 1) Business Activity : Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited is engaged in the business of providing broking services & distribution of various financial products. RUDRA is also registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI(Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH100002524. 2) Disciplinary History : There has been no instance of any Disciplinary action, penalty etc. levied/passed by any regulation/administrative agencies against RUDRA and its Directors. Pursuant to SEBI inspection of books and records of Rudra, as a Stock Broker, SEBI has not issued any Administrative warning to Rudra. 3) Terms & Conditions of issuance of Research Report: The Research report is issued to the registered clients. The Research Report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct and reliable. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for clients. 4) Disclosures with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest : Sr. No. a) Disclosures Yes/No Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any direct or indirect No financial interest in the subject company. b) Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any other material No conflict of interest at time of publication of the research report. c) Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associates have actual/beneficial No ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company. 5) Disclosures with regard to receipt of compensation : Sr. No. a) Disclosures Yes/No Rudra or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the No past twelve months. b) Rudra or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the No subject in the past twelve months. c) Rudra or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject No company or third party in connection with the research report . 6) Other Disclosures: Yes/No Sr. No. Disclosures a) The research analyst has served as an officer,director,employee of the subject company. No b) Rudra or its research analyst has been engaged in market making activity for the subject No company. c) Page 7 Rudra or its or associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. www.rudrashares.com No RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called report) has been prepared and presented by RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LIMITED, which does not constitute any offer or advice to sell or does solicitation to buy any securities. The information presented in this report, are for the intended recipients only. Further, the intended recipients are advised to exercise restraint in placing any dependence on this report, as the sender, Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited, neither guarantees the accuracy of any information contained herein nor assumes any responsibility in relation to losses arising from the errors of fact, opinion or the dependence placed on the same. Despite the information in this document has been previewed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data , personal views of the research analyst(s)and other reliable sources, believed to be true, we do not represent it as accurate, complete or exhaustive. It should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Besides this, the research analyst(s) are bound by stringent internal regulations and legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India( SEBI) and the analysts' compensation was, is, or will be not directly or indirectly related with the other companies and/or entities of Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation, that they have given in the research report. Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or any of its affiliates/group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any such loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd has not independently verified all the information, which has been obtained by the company for analysis purpose, from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Accordingly, we neither testify nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, of the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. Rudra Share & Stock Brokers Ltd and its affiliates are engaged in investment advisory, stock broking, retail & HNI and other financial services. Details of affiliates are available on our website i.e. www.rudrashares.com. We hereby declare, that the information herein may change any time due to the volatile market conditions, therefore, it is advised to use own discretion and judgment while entering into any transactions, whatsoever. Individuals employed as research analyst by Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or their associates are not allowed to deal or trade in securities, within thirty days before and five days after the publication of a research report as prescribed under SEBI Research Analyst Regulations. Subject to the restrictions mentioned in above paragraph, we and our affiliates, officers, directors, employees and their relative may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions acting as a principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof, of Company mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or profits. RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Phone: +91 – 512 – 67011001 Page 8 www.rudrashares.com
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