Stronger Base Turnout, Plus Better
Engagement of White Working-Class
thedemocraticstrategist.org · by staff
Alex Roarty of McClatchy’s DC Bureau shares the findings from a new study, which
clarifies the reasons why Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college vote, and what
Democrats must do to win future elections. As Roarty writes:
…New information shows that Clinton had a much bigger problem with voters who had
supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but backed Trump four years later.
Those Obama-Trump voters, in fact, effectively accounted for more than two-thirds of
the reason Clinton lost, according to Matt Canter, a of the Democratic political firm
Global Strategy Group. In his group’s analysis, about 70 percent of Clinton’s failure to
reach Obama’s vote total in 2012 was because she lost these voters.
Roarty reports that the findings are “shared broadly by other Democrats who have
examined the data, including of Clinton’s campaign and officials at the Democratic data
and analytics firm Catalist. (The New York Times, doing its own analysis, reached a
similar conclusion.)” Each of these groups did a data-driven analysis, based on
demographics in key states and “prior vote history.”
The white working-class is a still large share of the national electorate, many states and
congressional districts. Yet, “There’s still a real concern that persuasion is harder and
costs more than mobilization,” notes Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, vice president for social
policy and politics at Third Way. She says many say “let’s just triple down on getting out
the people who already agree with us” is the more promising approach.
But the study solidifies the growing consensus that arguments for focusing on base
turnout vs. winning back a majority of the white working-class present a false choice.
Democrats are going to have to do of meeting both challenges to be competitive. “This
idea that Democrats can somehow ignore this constituency and just turn out more of our
voters, the math doesn’t work,” Canter said. “We have to do both.” Further, explains
Roarty,
Democrats are quick to acknowledge that even if voters switching allegiance had been
Clinton’s biggest problem, in such a close election she still could have defeated Trump
with better turnout. She could have won, for instance, if African-American turnout in
Michigan and Florida matched 2012 levels.
Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA adds “I really do believe that we should reject this
idea that if we just focus on turnout and the Democratic base that that will be enough. If
that really is our approach, we’re going to lose six or seven Senate seats in this
election…But, I also believe that just talking about persuasion means we are not
capitalizing on an enormous opportunity.”
Overall, Roarty adds, “the data says turnout was less of a problem for Clinton than
defections were.” Trump didn’t win so many new voters in the key states — Clinton
actually did better in that metric. It was the “defections,” Obama voters who voted for
Trump. Focus groups indicate that many of these disenchanted voters felt that the
Democratic leaders have gotte too cozy with Wall St. and the wealthy, while failing to
defend the interests of working people — of all races.
The centerpiece of a winning Democratic strategy is “a strong message rooted in
economic populism,” reports Roarty. Democrats also have to brand their party as the one
that looks out for working families. That has to be the indelible message that reaches all
voters by election day. This shouldn’t be so hard, especially since the Republicans have
already branded themselves as the party of privilege and greed.
None of the lets F.B.I. Director James Comey off the hook. Regardless of the different
theories Other data indicate at least a strong possibility that Clinton would have won, had
Comey refused to be used for partisan intervention in the closing days of the 2016
campaign.
Trump threaded such a narrow path to electoral college victory than any number of ‘what
if’ factors could have changed the outcome. What is now crystal clear is that Democrats
can do a lot better with a new committment to both turn out their base and win more
support from white working-class voters. Democrats already have the policies and history
of accomplishments, including Social Security, Medicare, and numerous other reforms
improving wages and working conditions for working people. But they have to do a
better job of claiming this heritage, making it known and explaining their policies.