Logistics and Industrial Property
Investment Report
Germany | Full year 2016
Published in January 2017
Erschienen im Juli 2016
JLL • Logistics and Industrial Property Investment Report • January 2017
|2
Investment volume at a record level - investment pressure
remains high
Transaction volume up 15 % year-on-year
Headline
Grafikmarket for logistic and industrial space ended 2016
The German
with a record high investment volume of €4.72 billion, around €620
Headline Grafik
million more than was invested in 2015. Whilst there was a 4% fall
in the transaction volume in the entire market for commercial real
estate in 2016, the logistic / industrial asset class scored doubledigit growth of 15%. This asset class has recorded only annual increases in transaction volumes since 2010, and this year’s result
was a staggering 84% above the 5-year average. There was even
a steady rise over each of the four quarters last year, from €830
million in the first three months to over €1.02 billion and €1.23 billion in the second and third quarters, reaching €1.64 billion at the
end of the year. The quarterly investment volume in the period
from October to the end of December was at an all-time high; the
previous quarterly record was set in the final quarter of 2015 (€1.4
billion). The dynamism of the market is also evident from the num-
ber of transactions which increased from around 200 in the previous year to more than 250, and included eight transactions of over
€100 million, totalling more than €1.5 billion. Around €2 billion was
generated by portfolio transactions which, at 42%, was higher than
the share of the total investment volume generated by the entire
commercial real estate investment market (34%).
Examples include:
 The sale of of the European Giant portfolio with 27 properties in Germany to the Growth Industrial Asset Net-Income Trust;
 The sale by Goodman of eight German logistic properties to Gramercy;
 The take-over of the European logistic project developer
and investor P3 by the joint venture company TPG and
its partner Ivanhoé Cambridge through the Singapore
sovereign wealth fund GIC.
Development of transaction volume for logistics and industrial property
5.00
€ bn
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
5 year average:
€2.57 bn
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
JLL • Logistics and Industrial Property Investment Report • January 2017
Transaction volume by nationality of purchaser
Foreign investors were responsible for 38% of the investment volume in 2016, which is significantly below the 5-year average of
59%. Nonetheless, in absolute terms, foreign investors invested
€1.75 billion more than in the period from 2011-2015 (€1.5 billion).
Foreign
There is sufficient product in the Core-Plus segment in particular,
which is also attracting investors’ attention. Core-Plus investments
generated a total volume of €2 billion in 2016, corresponding to a
42% share of the total transaction volume. Investors were therefore prepared to take on more risk than in previous years. Shorter
construction periods are required than for office or retail properties,
and therefore forward funding and commitments are a frequently
chosen option.
German
38 %
62 %
The high demand is leading to a further reduction in prime yields,
which have fallen by 26 bps between the end of 2015 and 2016 to
reach 5.0% in Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich
Basis: Transaction volume €4.72 bn; full year 2016
Transaction volume logistics and industrial property full year 2016
others
VENDORS
PURCHASERS
Private Investors
Insurances
Public authorities
Pension Funds
Property Companies
Developers
Corporates
Public Quoted Property Companies / REITs
Special Funds
Asset/Fund Managers
€m
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
€m
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
|3
JLL • Logistics and Industrial Property Investment Report • January 2017
and Stuttgart and 5.1% in Berlin. Yields for Core products will remain under pressure as a result of the strong demand, and we expect a further but moderate reduction in prime yields. In the CorePlus segment, the pressure on yields will also make a considerable impression due to the high investment pressure.
Development of prime yields in the Big 7
8.00 %
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
High Street Unit Shops
Office
Retail Warehouses
2016
Logistics-Industrial
|4
Several larger portfolios including Logicor, Geneba and Gramercy
are also expected to be looking for an exit in the capital or real estate markets in 2017. Corporate real estate will also shift increasingly into the focus of investors. Corporates are likely to seize the
opportunity and consider sale-and-leaseback options or the disposal of properties which are surplus to the requirements of their
businesses. We expect the transaction volume in 2017 to reach
similar heights as in 2016, and the possibility of a further increase
cannot be discounted.
JLL • Logistics and Industrial Property Investment Report • January 2017
|5
Contact
Willi Weis
Helge Scheunemann
Head of Industrial Investment Germany
Head of Research Germany
Frankfurt
+49 (0) 69 2003 1026
[email protected]
Hamburg
+49 (0) 40 350011 225
[email protected]
jll.de For further information about JLL please visit our Company website
jll.de/research For further Research reports please visit our Research website
Copyright © JONES LANG LASALLE GmbH, 2017.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every
effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.