Nivesh Commodity
7th July, 2017 FROM RESEARCH DESK Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper 314775 ‐1150 Alumni 1391525 ‐5850 Lead 161075 ‐850 Zinc 284025 ‐825 Nickel 372642 2358 Gold Lease Rates 1 m 0.0884% +0.0250 2 m 0.1100% +0.0175 3 m 0.1381% +0.0150 6 m 0.2097% +0.0025 1 y 0.4007% +0.0050  Daily Change & Technical levels Scrip Close
GOLD SILVER CRUDE NG COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALUMINIUM 28116
% Change
0.03
0.29
0.31
1.19
‐0.52
‐0.64
0.51
0.11
0.36
37452
2947
186.5
382.3
589.4
147.7
180.5
125.3
R1
R2
Pivot S2
S1
28177
28238
28138
28038
28077
37601
3001
188.0
383.9
592.3
37750
3055
189.5
385.4
595.1
37450
2965
186.5
382.4
590.1
37150
2875
183.5
379.4
585.1
37301
2911
185.0
380.9
587.3
148.5
149.2
147.2
145.2
146.5
182.3
126.0
184.2
126.8
180.2
125.3
176.2
123.8
178.3
124.5

Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold Silver
$1224.65 $16.0120
‐0.18 ‐0.29
* According to 6 JUL, 2017. Ankit Kapoor Sr. Research Analyst Mobile: +91‐7389934302 Tel: +91‐0731‐4262702 [email protected] 1
BULLION Gold down in Asia as dollar rebounds from overnight Review
Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar rebounded and investors looked ahead to more data on U.S. inflation. Overnight, gold prices pared losses on Thursday, as downbeat initial jobless claims and private sector payrolls data curbed investor expectations about the pace of rate hikes this year. Gold bounced off session lows, after both the dollar and U.S. 10‐Year eased, following the release of weaker‐than‐expected initial jobless claims and private sector payrolls data, suggesting a possible slowdown in labor market activity. The ADP National Employment Report showed private sector payrolls increased by 158,000 jobs last month, lower than the 230,000 positions created in May and below economists' expectations for a gain of 185,000. In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally‐adjusted 248,000 for the week ended July 1. It was the third straight weekly increase in claims. Meanwhile, data showing an improvement in non‐manufacturing economic activity for June, which rose to 57.4, failed to dent investor sentiment on gold. The release of mixed economic data came a day after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 13‐14 revealed that fed policymakers were split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises. In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest‐bearing assets such as bonds. Gold and Silver settled at 28116 and 37452 respectively. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote Today, Gold has support at 28050 and resistance at 28225 while silver has support at 37200 and resistance at 37900. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 2
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ENERGY Crude oil down in Asia as focus swings back to oversupply Review
Crude oil prices fell sharply in Asia on Friday as investors shrugged off U.S. inventory data and concentrated on a continued global supply glut. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, buoyed by data showing that supplies of U.S. crude fell by more than expected, easing concerns that U.S. output would continue to add to the glut in supply.Crude prices eased from highs but ultimately settled higher, after an upbeat report from the Energy on Thursday, spurred a recovery in oil prices from a 4% drop sustained in the previous session, as both gasoline and crude stocks piles fell more than expected. Crude prices eased from highs but ultimately settled higher, after an upbeat report from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday, spurred a recovery in oil prices from a 4% drop sustained in the previous session, as both gasoline and crude stocks piles fell more than expected. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 6.3m barrels in the week ended June 30, confounding expectations of draw of about only 2.3m barrels. Despite the larger‐than‐
expected draw in gasoline inventories, investor sentiment on gasoline inventories remains bearish as weak gasoline demand has pushed stockpiles above seasonal averages. Oil prices have dipped below $50 a barrel from recent highs amid growing investor doubts about Opec and its allies’ commitment to drain the glut in supply, as members of the oil‐cartel have increased exports and production, despite the current deal to curb output. Some analysts, however, expect oil prices to rally in the second half of the year, as demand is likely to outpace supply, causing a dent in global inventories. Crude oil settled at 3947 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote
Crude oil has support at 2900 and resistance at 2970‐‐‐3025. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 3
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BASE METAL Copper traded in a range, keep profit booking at higher levels Review Copper prices traded within a range as profit booking may take place at higher levels. Prices of industrial metals were up on demand hope from China following higher industrial profit data while weak durable data from US capped the consumption expectations. In China, industrial profits of companies spurted 16.7% in May compared to 14% growth reported in the month of April. During Jan‐May industrial profits have reported growth of 22.7% or Yuan 2.9 trillion compared to same periods a year ago. However, sharp rally in the prices was capped by weak durable order data from the world's second biggest metal consumer which raised investors' confusion regarding global demand growth. However, it expects China's GDP to ease to 6.4% during 2018‐20, in line with government forecasts. Further, better than expected retail sales and manufacturing activity will also keep prices up. Data released by National Bureau of Statistics of China showed retail sales in the month of May grew by 10.7% compared to analysts' expectation of 10.6% and unchanged from the same period a year ago. Chinese industrial production in May also expand by 6.5% compared to analysts expectation of 6.3% contraction while unchanged from same period a year ago. Additionally, China's copper imports during the month of Jan‐May jumped by 2.4% to 6.8 million tons compared to same period a year ago. Further, prices of zinc will also be supported by supply worries after the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported supply deficit for the month of April. Global zinc market deepened its deficit to 92,400 tons in April compared to revised deficit of 72,700 tons in March, ILZSG said. ILZSG said zinc stocks at consumers, producers and in exchange warehouses fell to 1.26 million tons in April compared 1.35 million tons in the previous month. Data released by International Copper Study Group showed refined copper market was in 5000 ton deficit in March that compares with a surplus of 102,000 tons a month earlier. Meanwhile, nickel prices will be supported by reports of closure of some smelters in Indonesia. Copper settled at 382.30 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote Copper has support at 380 and resistance at 385. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 4
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AGRI COMMODITY Soybean ends to 2‐mo high on strong demand, weak sowing Review
Soybean ended to two‐month high Thursday on increasing demand in local mandis and declining acreages under the crop during current kharif season. "Increasing demand from crushers and weak sowing data kept bean prices up. Area under soybean crop across for the 2017‐18 kharif slipped to 1.558 million hectares till June 30, down around 19% on year. Last year, the acreages were 1.892 million hectares. Prices of bean were also on hope of higher demand from oil crushers ahead of festivals and due to monsoon season. "Demand from crushers generally rise on higher consumption of oil during monsoon season," said Mahesh Shah a Madhya Pradesh based trader. Apart from domestic fundamentals global cues also kept prices up today. Prices of the yellow bean were up following reports of lower stocks and acreage figures released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA in its report showed soybean stocks at 963 million bushels, below an average of trade expectations. The USDA put US 2017 soybean plantings at 89.513 million acres, up from its March forecast of 89.482 million but below an average of trade expectations for 89.750 million. Soybean (July) settled around 2950 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote
Traders can buy Soybean in panic around 2920‐‐‐2900 with stop loss below 2820 on closing basis for the upside target of 3185. 5
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News Source: Investing.com and News Wire IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e‐mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. 6
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