Super Schedule Analysis
USING THE SUPER RANKINGS TO ANALYZE YOUR FANTASY SCHEDULE
MAT HARRISON --- @EXPLOSIVEOUTPUT
What Are the Super Rankings?

The Super Rankings derived from pitting the fantasy player against
the fantasy defense on a weekly basis.

Two years ago, CP and I put on our analyst hats, and added key
stat inputs (offensive line ranking, age, depth, career carries and
projections) in order to project a full season.

This didn’t come without many mistakes, pain and agony

We bounced several ideas back and forth, almost acting as fantasy
therapists with the Super Rankings as the lost subject.

We put it all together and we got…
Analyst + Therapist =
Key Points About Schedule Analysis

Good and bad STARTS are much easier to predict than easy or
difficult fantasy playoff runs.

Today, we’re not looking at the end of the season.

Looking for favorable starts to the season.

Avoiding difficult stretches to kick off the year.

If you roster too many players with a tough open to the schedule,
by Week 7 you may have changed your license plate to this…
The Curious Case of Nick Foles
The Curious Case of Nick Foles

Last year Nick Foles started 11 games, had 27 TD
passes and only 2 interceptions.

His opponents (rank vs. QB): Giants (12),
Buccaneers (27), Cowboys (31), Raiders (29),
Packers (26), Washington (22), Cardinals (19),
Lions (14), Vikings (32), Bears (9), Cowboys AGAIN
(31)

SEVEN of his opponents were in the bottom 10 vs.
QBs

Only ONE of his opponents cracked the top 10
Schedule Means Something

The five toughest schedules for QBs last
season:

Arizona - Carson Palmer
(finished 25th among QBs)

Atlanta – Matt Ryan
(finished 18th – well below ADP)

Minnesota – Christian Ponder
(finished in Minnesota)

San Francisco – Colin Kaepernick
(finished 14th – well below ADP)

Tampa Bay – Josh Freeman
(was cut in October, may finish in
Canada)

Tampa Bay – Mike Glennon
(impressed so much that he was
replaced by Josh McCown)
Today’s Super Rankings

Today we’re using a yardage-heavy scoring system

1 point/25 yards passing

1 point/10 yards rushing or receiving

1 point per reception

4 points per touchdown pass

6 points per rushing or receiving touchdown

For more versions of the Super Rankings, check out LeagueSafe Post
Quarterbacks – Hot Starts
Drew Brees
Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN, at DAL, TB,
bye, at DET, GB
SIX of those seven teams finished as
BOTTOM 13 in FFpts vs. QB last season
Russell Wilson
Start: GB, at SD, DEN, bye, at WAS,
DAL
ALL FIVE of those teams finished in
the bottom 11 last season FFpts vs.
QB
Sam Bradford
Start: MIN, at TB, DAL, bye, at PHI
ALL FOUR of those teams finished in
the bottom 8 last year vs. QB.
BRADFORD BUYERS BEWARE:
His next 4 games: SF (twice) SEA,
KC
Quarterbacks – Tough Starts
Aaron Rodgers
Start: at SEA, NYJ, at DET, at CHI,
MIN, at MIA, CAR, at NO
FIVE of Rodgers first eight opponents
finished in the top 9 vs. QBs last
season
Jay Cutler
Start: BUF, at SF, at NYJ, GB, at CAR,
at ATL, MIA
FOUR of Cutler’s first seven
opponents finished in the top 8 vs.
QBs in 2013
Joe Flacco
Start: CIN, PIT, at CLE, CAR, at IND
Only Cleveland did not finish in the
top half vs. QB last year, they get
healthy Joe Haden and rookie Justin
Gilbert
Running Backs – Hot Starts
Arian Foster
Start: WAS, at OAK, at NYG, BUF, at
DAL
WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 5
vs. RBs last season
Pierre Thomas
Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN, DAL
Three of the Saints first four
opponents were bottom 10 in the
league vs. RBs in 2013
Frank Gore
Start: at DAL, CHI
Dallas and Chicago were the worst
two defenses vs. RB last year, Gore
gets them in Week 1 and 2.
Running Backs – Tough Starts
Montee Ball
Start: IND, KC, at SEA, bye, ARI, at
NYJ, SF, SD
SIX of his first seven games are
against top 13 defenses vs. RB (KC
was 16th)
Ryan Mathews
Start: at ARI, SEA, at BUF, JAC, NYJ
Arizona, Seattle and the Jets were
the 3 toughest teams to run on in
2013
Rashad Jennings
Start: at DET, ARI, HOU
Detroit and Arizona were top 4 vs.
RB last season, Houston ranked 15th.
Steven Jackson (didn’t make this
list!)
Start: NO, at CIN, TB
Each of those three teams were in
the top 8 against RBs last season.
Wide Receivers – Hot Starts
Andre Johnson
Start: WAS, at OAK, at NYG, BUF, at
DAL
WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 12
vs. WRs last season, BUF 15th
Victor Cruz
Start: at DET, ARI, HOU, at WAS, ATL,
at PHI, at DAL
Five of Cruz’s first seven opponents
ranked in the bottom 12 vs. WR in
2013
Julian Edelman
Start: at MIA, at MIN, OAK, at KC
Miami was 8th best vs. WR last year,
Vikings, Raiders and Chiefs were
bottom 10 in the league vs. position
Wide Receivers – Tough Starts
Keenan Allen
Start: at ARI, SEA
Patrick Peterson and Richard
Sherman to kick off a season, thank
you very much.
Julio Jones
Start: NO, at CIN, TB, at MIN, at NYG
Giants, Bengals and Saints each
ranked in the top 8 vs. WR last year.
Tampa added Verner Void, Vikings
secondary should be better under
Zimmer
Vincent Jackson
Start: CAR, STL, at ATL, at PIT, at NO
Panthers, Saints, Steelers ranked in
top 12 vs. position in 2013, Rams not
far behind in 15th
I wish you nothing but @ExplosiveOutput
this season