NEWSFLASH!
IS THE NEWS ACCURATE?
Laura Jennings and Timina Liu
Year 11
Burgmann Anglican School
Aim: To determine the probability of errors
on each page of a newspaper using the
Poisson Distribution.
Hypothesis: It is expected that there will
be less than 5 errors on average on a page
of a newspaper
Materials:
 3 newspapers of the same publisher
 Pen
 Excel
Method:
1. All the materials were gathered.
2. The first 10 pages with articles in a
newspaper were carefully checked for
spelling, grammatical and formatting
errors. All errors were circled with a pen.
3. The number of errors on each of the pages
were recorded, with their relative
frequency calculated, plotted and fitted by
a Poisson Distribution.
4. Steps 2 and 3 were repeated for the other 2
newspapers.
Results:
All count data were used to find the average
number of errors to be substituted into the
Poisson Distribution formula to calculate the
probabilities:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
where 𝜆 = average no. of errors and
𝑥 = 0,1, 2, 3, … (0! = 1)
The probabilities were graphed.
The orange dots represent the Poisson probability
curve. The blue dots represent the relative counts
for the raw data collected.
Probability of errors on a page of
Newspaper 1
0.35
0.3
0.25
Probability
The graph on the right
(with average = 4.3) shows
that Newspaper 1 has the
highest probability of 4
errors on a page.
There is a small probability
of having 0 or more than 10
errors.
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
2
0.45
0.4
Probability
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
2
4
6
8
Number of errors on a page
10
6
8
10
12
Number of errors on a page
Probability of errors on a page of
Newspaper 2
0
4
12
The graph on the left (with
average =5.2) shows that
the probability of having 5
errors on a page is the
highest, with a small
chance of having 0 or more
than 10 errors.
Probability of errors on a page of
Newspaper 3
0.45
0.4
0.35
Probability
The graph on the right
(with average = 0.9) shows
that the probability of
having no errors on a page
is the highest, with a small
chance of having 5 or more
errors.
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
2
Probability
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
4
6
8
Number of errors on a page
10
8
10
12
The graph on the left (with
average = 3.5) shows that
for all 3 newspaper, the
probability of having 3
errors on a page is the
highest, with having 10 or
more errors being unlikely.
0.25
2
6
Number of errors on a page
Probability of errors on a page
of all newspapers
0
4
12
Discussion
 The general trend of the results has fitted
well. The probabilities provide useful
information on the number of errors in the
newspapers.
 There are a small number of inconsistencies
between the relative frequencies and the
probability curve. However, they can be fixed.
 More pages for counts for the 3 newspapers
can be used in the analysis.
 Further comparison could have been made
between the different sections in the
newspapers.
Conclusion
 The results support our hypothesis.
 For the majority of the results, the
curve peaks at 3 to 5 errors per page.
 It is clear that it is rare to have no
errors or to have more than 10 errors
per page.
 Newspaper 3 has the smallest average
of errors and is therefore better than
the other two newspapers for the
period of data collection.