Statistical Office in Rzeszów
TOWARDS COHERENT STATISTICAL SYSTEMS
OF TRANSBORDER AREAS
CASE STUDY OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL EASTERN BORDER
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, PhD
1. Towards coherent research system for transborder areas
2. The structure of comprehensive surveys
3. Comprehensive surveys - methodology and results
2
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIALS
INTEGRATION
DISINTEGRATION
INCREASE IN INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OBJECTS
HIGHER INTENSITY OF NON-REGISTERED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHENOMENA
DEEPENING FAILURES IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS
(especially concerning transborder areas)
3
Methodology
Delimitation
of transborder
areas
Monitoring
of socio-economic
phenomena
Transborder
metadatabase
Comprehensive
surveys
4
Survey at the EU’s borders
on the territory of Poland
Household survey
e.g. tourism, quality of life
External borders
Internal borders
Questionnaire survey
at the border
Traffic intensity survey
Enterprise survey
e.g. bussines tendency survey,
financial health survey
common
questionnaire
Questionnaire survey
in the vicinity of the border
(e.g. shopping centres,
service centres,
petrol stations)
Questionnaire survey
(seaports, airports, railway)
5
6
 Border sections with particular countries are selected - within each of the
section, the crossings whose participation in the movement of people is
more than 1%.
 Using Ward's method these crossings are grouped according to particular
sections of the border into subsets with high internal similarity due to
selected characteristics: size of total cross-border traffic, the percentage of
foreigners crossing the border, the proportion of passenger cars in crossborder traffic of vehicles.
 Border crossings for the survey are drawn within the groups.
Choosing the border crossings, the geographical distance between the
selected crossings is additionally included.
7
Survey of goods and services turnover at the European Union’s
external border
 The purpose - expenses incurred by foreigners in Poland and the Poles abroad
on the purchase of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency
of crossing the border, etc.
 The survey covers the turnover of goods not registered in customs documents.
 It is conducted on a sample of about 1% (about 120 thousand people).
 It is a non-frame survey (an elusive population).
8
 The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods, in selected days of
a week chosen from the total number of days in a given period (7 times in the
quarter).
 A stratified two-stage sampling is used
• The strata were determined according to the days of the week as well as
border crossings and kind of traffic.
• First, the days undergoing survey are drawn by simple random sampling
then, persons are drawn out of those who cross the border by systematic
sampling.
In case the selected person refuses to participate in the survey, the next
person is surveyed.
 The 24-hour traffic intensity of the target population was examined on the basis on
the pilot survey to define representative survey intervals. For individual border
crossings sampling intervals were determined taking into account the projected
volume of traffic at individual crossings.
9
Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad
who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland by countries in 2014
Countries:
Countries:
459.2
4.9
Russia
Russia
133.5
0.6
874.0
41.1
Belarus
Belarus
26.3
3.0
1,861.7
44.7
Ukraine
Ukraine
2.3
51.0
millions
USD
%
0
500
Expenses:
1000
Foreigners
1500
Poles
2000
50
40
30
20
10
0
Foreigners expenses/export relation
Poles expenses/import relation
10
Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad
who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland
millions USD
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Years
0
2008
2009
2010
Foreigners
2011
2012
2013
2014
Poles
11
%
45.0
42.6
expanses-to-export ratio
expanses-to-import ratio
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
19.6
20.0
14.7
15.0
7.7
10.0
2.5
5.0
0.7
7.3
0.8
0.0
Lubelskie
Podlaskie
Podkarpackie
Warmińsko-mazurskie
Regions (NUTS 2)
12
 The surveys covers expenses incurred by Poles and residents on the purchase
of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency of crossing the
border, booking of the trip, use of a tour operator or travel agency, number
of residents not participating in tourism for personal purposes, etc.
 The results will be used by the Central Statistical Office, the Polish National
Bank, the Ministry of Sport and Tourism as well as for the needs of the balance
of payments.
 It is conducted on a sample of about 0.14%.
(over 18 thousand households/13.5 million in whole country)
 The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods.
13
 Households for the survey are selected at random from census sampling frame
by two-step sampling with stratification on the first step (strata were defined by
subregions and size classes of towns).
 Strata which include border areas are divided into two parts: the border part
(up to 30 km from the border) and the central part.
 Units of the first step are census enumeration areas and units of the second step
are dwellings (from each unit of the first step five dwellings are drawn).
 Due to the nature of the survey half of the sample is allocated to the border part
and the other half to the central part. Within each of these two parts the allocation
is proportional to the number of households in the stratum.
14
495
565
625
15
 the population of people who travel abroad is a small subset of the
population of all households in the border area - probability of selecting
a household whose members travel abroad is small;
 necessity of using a modified technique of collecting questionnaires,
maintaining at the same time the principles of a representative selection
of households for the survey;
 the "random route" technique to collect questionnaires - when it is
impossible to conduct the interview the interviewer goes to the next
apartment to make an interview in accordance with the appropriate
algorithm
algorithm for the selection of subsequent flats, visiting a maximum
of six households – why six?
16
 How is this number calculated?
The number of maximum searches has been determined on the basis of the
number of vehicles crossing the border and the number of households in
border units on LAU level 1 (powiat).
Based on registration numbers, the households which participated in trips
were selected, then they were compared with the total number of
households in the border units. (The analyses showed that households
which cross the border make it 4 times a week on average).
17
Traffic
intensity
survey
Questionnaire
survey
in households
Questionnaire
survey
(seaports, airports,
railway)
Questionnaire survey
at the border and in the vicinity
of the border
(e.g. shopping centres, service
centres, petrol stations)
Preliminary
weights
DataBase
Final
weights
Modelling
Extrastatistical
sources of
information
and expertise
Final estimate
of key
variables
Weights calibration
Three-part structure
Direct
estimate
Constrained
Least Squares
Method
Final estimate
of all variables
Raking
18
Share of transborder balance of trade
in GDP
Transborder balance of trade
2014
2014
2013
2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2010
2009
2009
2008
2008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
19
The rate of economic growth
106.0
105,1
105.0
0.20
104,5
103,9
104.0
0.15
103,4
0.10
0.12
103.0
104.9
101,6
102.0
104,3
103.8
102,0
0.04
0.06
101.0
101,6
0.08
101.9
101,5
103.3
101.5
100.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Growth rate of GDP - pure share of transborder balance of trade
Growth rate of GDP - without transborder balance of trade
20
 Carried out on around 2000 households in Poland and Ukraine including
transborder areas.
 Questionnaire - 96 questions on Likert scale.
 Subjective assessment of life domains such as social, economic and
intellectual aspects of life, health, activity, community, preferences, prospects
and expectations.
21
Selected objective indicators of quality of life





















Average monthly gross wages and salaries
Sold production of industry per 1 thous. population
Average usable floor area of a dwelling per one inhabitant
Registered unemployment rate
Proportion of registered unemployed persons in population at
working age
Population using wastewater treatment plants in % of total
population
Proportion of waste recovered in waste generated
Persons unemployed over 24 months per 1 thous. population
Full-time and part-time paid teachers in terms of full-time
employment per 1 thous. population
Percentage share of schools equipped with computers with the
Internet access
Total nursery schools per 1 thous. population
Total tertiary schools per 1 thous. population
Total students per 1 thous. population
Doctors and dental specialists per 1 thous. population
Beds in general hospitals per 1 thous. population
Nurseries and nursery wards per 1 thous. population
Ascertained crimes per 1 thous. inhabitants
Proportion of green areas in total area
Total respiratory diseases per 100 thous. population
Total deaths caused by neoplasms per 100 thous. population
Deaths caused by circulatory system diseases per 100 thous.
population
Subjective assessment of life domains
on Likert scale



















Family life
Financial situation
Friendship
Incomes
Meeting basic needs
Health
Achievements
General country situation
Housing
Neighbourhood
Available goods and services
Prospects
Sex life
Education level
Leisure
Job
Children
Marriage
Safety
22
1
0.9
Objective Measure
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Subjective Measure
Polish and Ukrainian households in inner area
Ukrainian households along Polish border
Ukrainian households along Polish border
Polish households along Slovakian border
Polish households near
Slovakian border
Polish households near
Ukrainian border
Ukrainian households near
Polish border
Polish and Ukrainian
households in inner area
0,555
0,562
0,584
0,384
Formula
23
Frame
Sampling
Surveyed
population
Research
instrument
Household
Survey
Frame
Simple Random
Sampling with
Stratification
Sample survey
Questionnaire
Internal /
external
border
No frame
Systematic
Sampling
Vicinity of the
border
No frame
Purposive
Border Traffic
Survey
-
-
Sample survey
Sample survey
Census survey
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Register
24
 Supranational and multidimensional nature and scale of transborder processes
– necessity for coherent research system
 Multi-method survey – various sampling methods, research instruments and
techniques, surveyed population
 Multi-stage estimation – combining various statistical and mathematical
procedures
 Unexpected results of comprehensive surveys and possible use on local
regional, national and international level
 Cooperation between countries (specification of the most important endo- and
exogenous factors affecting the economy and regional development,
standardization of methods and forms of monitoring and survey, etc.)
 Creating a uniform information infrastructure of transborder areas – the base of
knowledge on transborder areas.
25
26
It is based on unitarized subjective and objective indices of quality of life. Its
construction allows one to measure the distance between observed data and
the model.
where:
si - subjective unitarized synthetic index,
oi - objective unitarized synthetic index.
This measure takes values from 0 to 1. In the case of using unitarized indices for
ranking units it has the following interpretation: it equals 0 if observed data is
a perfect match with the model; it equals 1, otherwise.
RUSSIA
"Random route" technique for collecting questionnaires
In the case of households not taking part in travelling, the interviewer
moves to another one and conduct a survey to the last (eighth) step and
proceeds to the next starting point.
In order to maintain the randomness of sampling the interviewer should
keep to the following four rules:




always
always
always
always
to the right;
in a clockwise direction;
from the top to the bottom;
within the surveyed territorial unit.
B1
B2
B3
A1
x11
x12
x13
A2
x21
x22
x23
B1
B2
B3
A1
x11
x12
x13
A2
x21
x22
x23
Let x, w, c, D be a vector of initial weight, final weights, constraints and
variance-covariance matrix, respectively. The objective in least squares
problem with linear constarints is to provide a solution for minimizing a sum
of squares (w - x)T D (w - x) with respect to linear constarints Hw = c.
Using method of Lagrange multipliers we obtain the solution o the form
w = x + D -1H’(HD -1H’) -1(c - Hx)
 Approximately 1600 address points were drawn by the European Union's
external border on the territory of Poland. Using of the method employed in most
surveys, information on only one one-day trip to Russia, two one-day trips to
Belarus and 23 one-day trips to Ukraine was obtained during the collection
of questionnaires.
 Standard procedure
The method used in most surveys consists in drawing units from a given frame
including a reserve sample. In the course of interviews the interviewer goes only
to the drawn points where he implements the interview. In a situation when the
interview cannot be carried out in a given place, the interviewer returns to this
place twice.