For Official Use STD/NA(2001)19 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 21-Sep-2001 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________ English - Or. English STATISTICS DIRECTORATE STD/NA(2001)19 For Official Use National Accounts QUALITY MEASURES FOR AUSTRALIAN SYSTEMS OF ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Agenda item 7 Australian Bureau of Statistics - Australia OECD MEETING OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS EXPERTS Château de la Muette, Paris 9-12 October 2001 Beginning at 9:30 a.m. on the first day English - Or. English JT00113078 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format STD/NA(2001)19 QUALITY MEASURES FOR AUSTRALIAN SYSTEMS OF ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Introduction 1. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is an active participant in discussions regarding international standards for assessing the quality of economic statistics, such as the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). DQAF and related standards are applicable to quality assessments of statistics compiled by a wide variety of national statistical agencies; and they provide some support to cross-country quality comparisons of macroeconomic statistics1. The ABS feels the need, however, for a more detailed array of measures tailored to assessing the ways in which the quality of economic accounts in a statistically advanced country evolves over time. During the past year or so, the ABS has been experimenting with such measures, under the project title Quality Measures for Systems of Economic Accounts (QMSEA). A broad draft framework has been laid out; the ABS is now trialling it on some subsystems of Australian economic data. Statistical Quality - Current and Possible Future Measures The ABS already shows a variety of quality indicators. They range from: 1. • the descriptions of scope, coverage, collection methods and quality indicators (such as relative standard errors on levels and movements) found in all ABS publications that present the results of sample surveys to • manuals such as Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods(ABS Cat. no. 5216.0) which includes descriptions of the concepts, data sources and methods used, assumptions made, and qualitative assessments of major national accounts aggregates. But the developers of DQAF advise caution regarding cross-country comparisons: " In providing feedback on the usefulness of the IMF's Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes, some users, particularly those in the financial markets, have called for an assessment system that would permit a country ranking or scoring system for data quality. However, the data quality assessment framework does not lend itself to such an approach. The element of subjectivity inherent in the frameworks, the detail embedded in the dataset specific frameworks, and the great diversity of country circumstances largely preclude using them to make meaningful country rankings." Carsons, C. S. (IMF paper, Dec. 20, 2000), "Towards a Framework for Assessing Data Quality", para. 37 p. 15. 2 STD/NA(2001)19 In addition, quantitative measures of accuracy (viz. comparisons between the published chain Laspeyres volume measures and comparable chain Fisher measures) and revisability of national accounts statistics are published from time to time. In part, QMSEA is intended as a portal into those documents; it is also a platform for further selective extension of the available quality measures. Key features of QMSEA include the following: • It is designed to display relevant information about aspects of quality so that the user can assess the degree to which systems of economic accounts are likely to be "fit for purpose". • It is designed primarily for use within the ABS and by a relatively small, sophisticated group of external users (such as the key economic policy agencies and academic researchers). • It concords with and expands upon the measures in the DQAF. Dimensions of the QMSEA Framework 2. Twelve "facets" of quality. QMSEA identifies twelve aspects of quality for systems of economic accounts: • • • • • • • • • • • • accessibility accuracy compliance consistency continuity frequency longevity lucidity relevance revisability sense timeliness. Attachment 1 contains descriptions of these twelve facets. 3. Three phases of compilation. These facets of quality are appropriate, in varying degrees, to assessing statistical quality during three phases of compiling economic accounts: • Gathering of the input data. • Transformations of the input data, such as seasonal adjustment, construction of price and volume indexes, modelling of multifactor productivity, construction of supply-use tables and so on. • Assembly of the key national accounting aggregates. QMSEA aims to support quality assessments for input data, intermediate transformed data and national accounting aggregates. 4. Six streams of input data. QMSEA looks beyond sample survey data (for which a variety of quality measures are already available) to the full range of input data (such as purposive surveys and administrative by-product datasets) used to compile the accounts. The input data streams include: • • • • probability-based sample surveys; non-probability-based surveys; censuses or complete enumerations; administrative or transactional by-product collections; 3 STD/NA(2001)19 • • marketplace and media intelligence; and the synthesis or "modelling" of data from the other streams. 5. Data sources other than the ABS may raise particular challenges for assessment of quality. This arises in large part because quality indicators for these sets of input data are rarely available from their sources. ABS experience has shown that with administration by-product collections, for instance, quality issues regularly arose that needed to be managed carefully. 7. Beyond sampling errors. In developing a comprehensive suite of quality measures for a system of economic accounts, it is recognised that "sample survey standard error" is associated with only one of the input data streams to systems of economic accounts, namely the probability sample survey based results. Non-probability based or purposive surveys such as used for the Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) or Producer Price Indexes (PPI) do not have this measure of quality. Nor do the other input data streams. Moreover, the role of sampling standard error is a relatively minor one compared with that of non-sample errors. Future Activities 8. The ABS is undertaking two activities to pursue the QMSEA strategy. 9. Agreeing on quality criteria. The proposed suite of indicators is being discussed with key users inside and outside the ABS and with colleagues in other statistical agencies. The aim is to agree upon a suite of quality indicators that are comprehensible and comprehensive for the task of assessing quality in the many diverse uses to which systems of economic accounts are applied. 10. Testing QMSEA on subsystems of the economic accounts. Before attempting to implement QMSEA on the gamut of economic accounts, the ABS is undertaking some small-to-medium scale "proof of concept" studies. Possible testbeds for the concepts include a satellite account (such as the recently released tourism account), another topic-specific slice of the core accounts (such as the subsystem used to estimate capital services or multifactor productivity, or an analytical array (such as the array of household wealth estimates, dissected by household type). QMSEA - A Real or Virtual Array of Quality Measures? 11. In concept, QMSEA consists of a huge multidimensional array of quality measures (all twelve facets of quality x all economic accounting variables, at all levels of disaggregation x all time periods). In practice, it would be very difficult and prohibitively expensive to build a fully populated array. So QMSEA is best regarded as a virtual array of quality measures, or a portal into the quality information stored in the ABS databanks. Important features of this virtual array include the following: • Some metadata concerning facets or dimensions of quality will be common across all or most of a system of accounts. This quality metadata is referred to as global. The definitions, descriptions and relationships of facets of quality are examples of global metadata. Similarly, some of the quality metadata will be common to data items within a particular account, but may differ between accounts. This type of quality metadata will be referred to as account-specific — for example, metadata regarding quality aspects such as accessibility and timeliness. On the other hand some quality metadata will be data-item-specific. 4 STD/NA(2001)19 • Some quality indicators will be numerical (say, the average revision to such-and-such an aggregate during such-and-such a time span); others will be qualitative (say, a judgment-based grading of the quality of administrative by-product data) and other textual (say, descriptions of the modelling procedures or of quality assurance procedures). 12. The ABS is considering several means of delivering the quality information assembled under the QMSEA framework. Within the ABS's Lotus Notes environment, it will be possible to provide users with a roadmap of (and links to) the quality statements already residing in text databases and other repositories; this is likely to be our first trial implementation, as it should be relatively inexpensive to establish. In the longer run, we may consider developing a browser-style interface that permits ABS and external users to enter queries regarding the quality of the system of accounts and particular aggregates, then to navigate to the relevant global, account-specific and data-item-specific information. Before the ABS undertook such an investment, however, we must assess what range and depth of quality information would be valuable to (and digestible by) different classes of users. For More Information 13. More details of this work can be obtained from [email protected] or [email protected] Issues for Discussion 1) Do other countries think it valuable to develop a more detailed array of measures tailored to assessing the way the quality of economic accounts in statistically advanced countries evolves over time? Have other countries developed something of this kind? 2) Are the proposed twelve facets of quality proposed appropriate for this purpose? 3) How do other countries store their arrays of quality measures, and how are they made available to internal and external users? 5 STD/NA(2001)19 Attachment 1 Twelve Dimensions of Quality Proposed in Quality Measures for Systems of Economic Accounts Quality Dimension Working Definition Accessibility Expresses the degree to which the statistical product is available to users. Embraces such aspects as - data presentation; what cells may have been suppressed (or collapsed) to preserve confidentiality; availability of metadata relating to concepts, sources and methods; distribution medium; etc. Accuracy Expresses the proximity of an estimate to the "true" value. Embraces such aspects as - errors in the source data; errors in timing; errors in valuation; methodological errors. Compliance Expresses the degree to which the statistical product conforms with the relevant conceptual and accounting standards. Consistency Expresses the degree to which the framework, concepts and classification boundaries are complete and internally consistent. Continuity Expresses the degree to which the statistical product supports meaningful interpretation from time period to time period. Frequency Expresses the time resolution of the statistical product (eg, monthly, quarterly, annual, longer-than-annual). Longevity Expresses the time span of the statistical product. Lucidity Expresses the clarity of the documentation accompanying the statistical product (both the concepts, sources and methods documentation and the interpretations of main features). Relevance Expresses the ability of the statistical product to meet the contemporary (and likely future) needs of policy makers, business, and other decision makers and analysts. Revisability Expresses the degree to which the estimates in a statistical product are revised from one vintage to another. Sense Expresses the degree to which the (social or economic) "story" told by the statistical product is consistent with the stories told by other measures (both ABS and nonABS). Timeliness Expresses the time lag between the reference period of the statistical product and its release to the user community. 6
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