Disunited
kingdom?
British attitudes to the EU
John Curtice and Rachel Ormston
2 December 2015, House of Commons
Where is the public on Europe?
 Divided overall?
 Divisions between countries?
 Divisions within countries?
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/
1
History and
current state of
GB opinion on
the EU
The Long-Term Trend
3
Source: Ipsos MORI
The Referendum Race So Far
4
The Partisan Divide
5 Source: Average of most recent BMG, ICM, Survation & YouGov polls
Attitudes in
England,
Scotland, Wales
and Northern
Ireland
England is indeed more Eurosceptic
68%
61%
56%
44%
39%
32%
Stay in the EU
England
7
Leave the EU
Scotland
Wales
Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015), excl. ‘don’t knows’
Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 1
75%
64%
52%
55%
48%
45%
36%
25%
Leave the EU
Stay in the EU
England
8
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
Source: Average across recent polls in each country, excluding ‘don’t knows’
Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 2
Leave EU %
52%
52%
36%
47%
42%
35%
25%
Survation, Sept 2015
YouGov, Sept 2015
England
9
Scotland
Source: Survation, YouGov, Ipsos MORI, excluding ‘don’t’ knows’
Ipsos MORI, Oct-Nov
2015
Wales
England-Scotland gap not new (but
widening?)
% think Britain's long-term policy should be to leave the
EU
50
40
26
30
%
20
10
14
18
16
10
11
11
1999
2000
2003
19
26
17
13
14
2004
2005
19
17
2013
2014
0
England
10 Source: British and Social Attitudes surveys
Scotland
Tipping point for disharmony?
Less than this
and England
could take rest
of UK out of EU
47.5% in
England
vote to
remain
Between 47.5%
and 49.9%,
England could
be kept in the
EU by Scotland,
Wales and NI
* Based on S, W and NI vote matching mean of recent polls
11 Source: Ormston, 2015
Why is England more EUsceptic?
 NOT demographic differences
 Patterns by age, education and class
similar across the UK (more on this later)
 If anything, structural differences ought to
push opinion in opposite direction
12
Party politics matter
Leave by GE 2015 vote and country %
94%
93%
93%
55% 54%
51%
27% 28%
22%
Cons.
Labour
30%
17%
27%
23%
11%
Lib Dem
England
SNP
Scotland
13 Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015).
Plaid C
Wales
UKIP
Party politics matter
 Country difference NOT statistically
significant once difference in GE vote
controlled for
 Direction? GE vote influenced by EU
views?
 BUT lukewarm enthusiasm for EU ref
 Political leadership may be key to
outcome AND level of divergence
14
Identity matters (in England especially)
63% of ‘Very
strongly English’
would vote to
leave
15 Source: British Election Study, Wave 4
41% of ‘Very
strongly Scottish’
would vote to
leave
45% of ‘Very
strongly Welsh’
would vote to
leave
Though perhaps not European identity 1
% Think of self as 'European'
50
40
%
30
20
10
10 9
12
17
11 12 12 12 11 12
16
15
12 14 12 11 12 14 13
16 Source: British Social Attitudes
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
0
Though perhaps not European Identity 2
Views on EU by whether think of self as European
92%
51%
40%
8%
European
Not European
Continue
17 Source: British Social Attitudes 2014
Withrdraw
How attitudes
vary between
different groups
within the UK
No Consistent Gender Gap
19
The Age Gap
20 Younger = 18-34 except YouGov 18-39; Older = 65+ except Survation 55+, YouGov 60+
The Class Difference
21
The Education Backdrop
22 Sources: BES: British Election Study Face to Face Post-Election Survey; BSA: British Social Attitudes 2014
A Social Divide

EU referendum is exposing a divide between a
younger, educationally well qualified Britain and an
older, less educationally accomplished one.
 Reflects a gap between those who are educationally
and culturally comfortable with immigration and global
capitalism and those who are not.
 Creates a potential challenge for Tory Euroscepticism
and Labour Euroenthusiasm.
23
Thank you
If you want further information or would like
to contact the team:
E. [email protected]; [email protected]
Visit us online: natcen.ac.uk, http://whatukthinks.org/eu/
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