2014 World Cup
Prediction
Jared Ness
World Cup Play
 Consists of 32 international teams
 Must pass through 5 stages
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/teams/
Stages
 Stage 1, groupings A-H of 4 teams.
 4 teams play each other to gain points:
 3 win, 1 draw, 0 loss
 Stage 2-5 are single game elimination
http://www.mlssoccer.com/
MLP learning with BP
 Will take data from the first stage of World Cup to
predict the final stages outcomes.
 For now will test out previous years World Cup stats
to check authenticity
http://bioinformatics.oxfordjournals.org/
Inputs
 8 features based on team performance
 Goals for, Shots, Shots on goal, fouls committed,
corner kicks, direct free kicks to goal, indirect free
kicks to goal, possession
 Each input value in normalized based on team played
based on equation:
 yiA= xiA/(xiA+xiB) , yiB= xiB/(xiA+xiB)
 Therefore y= 0 - 1
Inputs
 The averages of the first 3 games will be taken and
used to compare for stage 2
 This will continue through each stage with each
victorious team
http://www.worldcupblog.org/
Training
 Based on first 3 games will take undefeated and
winless teams data, set it to 1 and 0 respectively
 Continue to run until smallest error occurs and then
run stage 2 data
 After stage 2 take undefeated data and train the
program again.
 This continues after each stage until there are no more
undefeated teams
Results
 Pending
 Will test accuracy on previous World Cups.
http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/