TI 2004-118/3
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper
Complex Network Phenomena in
Telecommunication Systems
Laurie A. Schintler*
Sean P. Gorman*
Aura Reggiani**
Roberto Patuelli*
Andy Gillespie***
Peter Nijkamp****
Jonathan Rutherford***
* The School of Public Policy, George Mason University, US,
** Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy,
*** Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies, University
of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK,
****Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam, and Tinbergen Institute.
Tinbergen Institute
The Tinbergen Institute is the institute for
economic research of the Erasmus Universiteit
Rotterdam, Universiteit van Amsterdam, and Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam.
Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam
Roetersstraat 31
1018 WB Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Tel.:
Fax:
+31(0)20 551 3500
+31(0)20 551 3555
Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam
Burg. Oudlaan 50
3062 PA Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Tel.:
Fax:
+31(0)10 408 8900
+31(0)10 408 9031
Please send questions and/or remarks of nonscientific nature to [email protected].
Most TI discussion papers can be downloaded at
http://www.tinbergen.nl.
&203/(;1(7:25.3+(120(1$
,17(/(&20081,&$7,216<67(06
/DXULH$6FKLQWOHU6HDQ3*RUPDQ$XUD5HJJLDQL5REHUWR3DWXHOOL
$QG\*LOOHVSLH 3HWHU1LMNDPS DQG -RQDWKDQ5XWKHUIRUG
31/66*$553$*-5
7KH6FKRRORI3XEOLF3ROLF\*HRUJH0DVRQ8QLYHUVLW\86HPDLOOVFKLQWO#JPXHGX
VJRUPDQ#JPXHGXUSDWXHO#JPXHGX
'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFV8QLYHUVLW\RI%RORJQD,WDO\HPDLOUHJJLDQL#HFRQRPLDXQLERLW
&HQWUHIRU8UEDQDQG5HJLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW6WXGLHV8QLYHUVLW\RI1HZFDVWOH1HZFDVWOHXSRQ
7\QH1(588QLWHG.LQJGRPHPDLO$QG\*LOOHVSLH#QHZFDVWOHDFXN
-$5XWKHUIRUG#QHZFDVWOHDFXN
'HSDUWPHQWRI6SDWLDO(FRQRPLF)UHH8QLYHUVLW\RI$PVWHUGDP7KH1HWKHUODQGVHPDLO
SQLMNDPS#IHZHEYXQO
$%675$&7
0DQ\ QHWZRUNV VXFK DV WKH ,QWHUQHW KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR SRVVHVV VFDOHIUHH DQG VPDOOZRUOG QHWZRUN
SURSHUWLHVUHIOHFWHGE\VRFDOOHGSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQV6FDOHIUHHSURSHUWLHVHYROYHLQODUJHFRPSOH[
QHWZRUNVWKURXJKVHOIRUJDQL]LQJSURFHVVHVDQGPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\SUHIHUHQWLDODWWDFKPHQW1HZQRGHV
LQDQHWZRUNWHQGWRDWWDFKWKHPVHOYHVWRRWKHUYHUWLFHVWKDWDUHDOUHDG\ZHOOFRQQHFWHG%HFDXVHWUDIILF
LVURXWHGPDLQO\WKURXJKDIHZKLJKO\FRQQHFWHGDQGFRQFHQWUDWHGYHUWLFHVWKHGLDPHWHURIWKHQHWZRUN
LV VPDOO LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR RWKHU QHWZRUN VWUXFWXUHV DQG PRYHPHQW WKURXJK WKH QHWZRUN LV WKHUHIRUH
HIILFLHQW $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKLV HIILFLHQF\ IHDWXUH SXWV VFDOHIUHH QHWZRUNV DW ULVN IRU EHFRPLQJ
GLVFRQQHFWHGRUVLJQLILFDQWO\GLVUXSWHGZKHQVXSHUFRQQHFWHGQRGHVDUHUHPRYHGHLWKHUXQLQWHQWLRQDOO\
RUWKURXJKDWDUJHWHGDWWDFNRUH[WHUQDOIRUFH
7KHSUHVHQWSDSHUZLOOH[DPLQHDQGFRPSDUHSURSHUWLHVRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVIRUERWK
WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG (XURSH %RWK W\SHV RI QHWZRUNV ZLOO EH H[DPLQHG LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU QHWZRUN
WRSRORJ\ DQG VSHFLILFDOO\ ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKH\ DUH VFDOHIUHH QHWZRUNV WR EH IXUWKHU H[SORUHG E\
LGHQWLI\LQJDQGSORWWLQJSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQV1H[WHFRQRPLFSROLWLFDODQGFXOWXUDOIDFWRUVPD\EH
XVHGWRH[SODLQGLIIHUHQFHVLQQHWZRUNVWUXFWXUHVEHWZHHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSH,QDGGLWLRQWKH
SDSHU ZLOO LGHQWLI\ GDWD DQG PRGHOLQJ WRROV WKDW DUH QHHGHG WR IDFLOLWDWH IXUWKHU FURVV$WODQWLF
FRPSDUDWLYHVWXGLHVRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
1HWZRUN FRQQHFWLYLW\ KDV LQFUHDVLQJO\ EHFRPH D PDMRU UHVHDUFK LVVXH :LWK WKH DGYHQW RI WKH :RUOG
:LGH :HE DQG WKH ,QWHUQHW FRPSOH[ QHWZRUN IRUPDWLRQV KDYH HPHUJHG WKDW FDOO IRU D WKRURXJK
IXQFWLRQDO DQG JHRJUDSKLF DQDO\VLV ,Q UHFHQW \HDUV VHYHUDO FRQWULEXWLRQV KDYH HPHUJHG DW WKH
LQWHUVHFWLRQ RI JHRJUDSK\ DQG QHWZRUN DQDO\VLV VHH LQWHU DOLD %DUDEDVL DQG $OEHUW $OEHUW DQG
%DUDEDVL$PDUDOHWDO*RUPDQDQG.XONDUQL0DOHFNLDQG*RUPDQ5LQDOGL
HWDO0DOHFNL%DUWKHOHP\*RUPDQDQG.XONDUQL6XFKVWXGLHVDGGUHVVWKH
SRVLWLRQ RI QRGHV HJ FLWLHV KXEV DV ZHOO DV WKH GLIIXVLRQ SDWWHUQV RI IORZV LQ FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV
ZLWK GXH HPSKDVLV RQ URXWH OHQJWK QRGDO FOXVWHULQJ DQG SRZHU ODZ DQG H[SRQHQWLDO FRQQHFWLYLW\
GLVWULEXWLRQV 0RVW FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV DSSHDUHG QRW WR KDYH D UDQGRP IRUPDWLRQV EXW D ORFDOO\
RUJDQL]HGVWUXFWXUHRIQRGHVRUFOXVWHUVOHDGLQJWRµVPDOOZRUOGV¶FI:DWWVDQG6WURJDW]6XFK
µVPDOO ZRUOGV¶ LQ FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV WHQG WR KDYH D KHDY\ WDLOHG FRQQHFWLYLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK DQ
LQYHUVHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHQXPEHURIQRGHVDQGWKHQXPEHURIFRQQHFWLQJOLQNVLQFRQWUDVWWRD
UDQGRPGLVWULEXWLRQVZLWKDQH[SRQHQWLDOO\ GHFOLQLQJ SUREDELOLW\ WR ILQG KLJKO\ FRQQHFWHG QRGHV ,Q
WKHFDVHRILQFUHPHQWDOJURZWKLQDFRPSOH[QHWZRUNQHZQRGHVWHQGWREHPRUHOLNHO\WRFRQQHFWZLWK
H[LVWLQJZHOOOLQNHGQRGHV&RQVHTXHQWO\KXEVWHQGWRUHLQIRUFHWKHPVHOYHV6XFKQHWZRUNVDUHRIWHQ
FRLQHGµVFDOHIUHHQHWZRUNV¶
7KLV SDSHU FRPSDUHV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG FRQQHFWLYLW\ SURSHUWLHV RI WZR WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV
QHWZRUNV WKH SK\VLFDO ILEHU QHWZRUN RI 1RUWK $PHULFD DQG WKH SDQ(XURSHDQ ILEHU RSWLF QHWZRUN
7KHUH DUH ILYH VHFWLRQV WR WKH SDSHU IROORZLQJ WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ 7KH ILUVW SURYLGHV D KLVWRULFDO
SHUVSHFWLYH RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV GHSOR\PHQW LQ HDFK UHJLRQ DORQJ ZLWK D GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH
UHJXODWRU\ DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO IUDPHZRUNV WKDW KDYH FRQWULEXWHG WR WKHVH WUHQGV 6HFWLRQ WKUHH GLVFXVVHV
FRPSOH[ QHWZRUN WKHRU\ DQG WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ WR FRPSDUH WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG
(XURSH LQ WHUPV RI QHWZRUN FRQQHFWLYLW\ 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH HPSLULFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ
6HFWLRQIRXUDQGFRQFOXGLQJUHPDUNVDQGGLUHFWLRQVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKLQ6HFWLRQILYH
(XURSHDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&RPSDULQJ'HYHORSPHQWDQG'HUHJXODWLRQ3ROLFLHV
3UHIDFH
7KHQDWLRQVRI(XURSHRQDYHUDJHODJWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQWHUPVRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVGHSOR\PHQW
DQG PDUNHW GHYHORSPHQW DOWKRXJK WKLV LV FKDQJLQJ DV (XURSH WUDQVLWLRQV WR D PRUH FRPSHWLWLYH
UHJLPH7KLVVHFWLRQSURYLGHVDKLVWRULFDOSHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHVHWUHQGVIRFXVLQJRQKRZWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDO
DQG UHJXODWRU\ IUDPHZRUNV KDYH HYROYHG LQ WKH WZR UHJLRQV HVWDEOLVKLQJ D EDVH IURP ZKLFK WKH
ILQGLQJVRIWKHHPSLULFDODQDO\VLVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHG
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV1HWZRUNVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGWKH5ROHRI'HUHJXODWLRQ
7KHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVUHYROXWLRQZDVLQLWLDWHGE\ GHUHJXODWLRQRIWKHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\
ZKLFKWXUQHGVWDWHVXEVLGL]HGPRQRSROLHVLQWRSULYDWH PDUNHW FRPSHWLWRUV 3ULYDWH ILUPV HYHQ EHIRUH
UHJXODWLRQ KDG VXSSOLHG DGYDQFHG WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ VHUYLFHV EXW GHUHJXODWLRQ KDV PRYHG WKH YDVW
PDMRULW\ RI WKH ZRUOG¶V WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ QHWZRUNV LQWR SULYDWH FRQWURO 2(&' 3ULYDWHO\
RSHUDWHGQHWZRUNVLQDFRPSHWLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWZLOOUHVSRQGPDLQO\WRPDUNHWSUHVVXUHVRIVXSSO\DQG
GHPDQG *LOOHVSLH DQG 5RELQV 7KH ODUJHVW QHWZRUN RI LQWHUFRQQHFWHG SULYDWHO\ RSHUDWHG
QHWZRUNV LV WKH ,QWHUQHW DQG DV D UHVXOW LW LV D ODUJHO\ XQUHJXODWHG V\VWHP LQWR ZKLFK FRUSRUDWH
QHWZRUNVKDYHFRQQHFWHG6FKLOOHU&UDQGDOODUJXHVWKDWGHUHJXODWLRQLVDNH\LQJUHGLHQW
IRU WKH VXFFHVVIXO JURZWK RI DGYDQFHG WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ VHUYLFHV OLNH WKH ,QWHUQHW ³WKH FDVH IRU
JRYHUQPHQWVXSSRUWDQGGLUHFWLRQRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWUHPDLQVYHU\ZHDN´
&UDQGDOOS,QIDFWWKH)HGHUDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQ&RPPLVVLRQ¶V)&&RIILFLDOVWDWXVIRUWKH
,QWHUQHWLVDVDQXQUHJXODWHGQHWZRUN2[PDQ
7KH H[FHSWLRQ WR ,QWHUQHW¶V ODFN RI UHJXODWLRQ LV ³ODVW PLOH´ DFFHVV WKDW SURYLGHV VHUYLFHV OLNH
EURDGEDQGWRKRPHV³/DVWPLOH´LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVSUHGRPLQDQWO\RZQHGE\UHJLRQDOPRQRSROLHVHLWKHU
WKH UHJLRQDO %HOO WHOHSKRQH FRPSDQLHV RU UHJLRQDO FDEOH WHOHYLVLRQ SURYLGHU ,Q VRPH DUHDV RI WKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV WKH UHJLRQDO PRQRSROLHV KDYH EHHQ IRUFHG WR VKDUH RU XQEXQGOH WKHLU QHWZRUN
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHWRDOORZFRPSHWLWRUVWRRIIHUEURDGEDQGVHUYLFHWRWKHKRPH7KHFXUUHQWSROLF\GHEDWH
RYHU ZKHWKHU WR FRPSOHWHO\ RSHQ WKHVH PDUNHWV WR XQIHWWHUHG FRPSHWLWLRQ LH RSHQ DFFHVV
%LWWOLQJPD\HU DQG +D]OHWW RU OLPLW EURDGEDQG SURYLVLRQ WR RQO\ WKH UHJLRQDO PRQRSROLHV
IRFXVLQJUHJXODWLRQRQHQFRXUDJLQJPRQRSROLHVWRSURYLGHDFFHVVWRXQGHUUHSUHVHQWHGDUHDV.DODNRWD
HWDOFRQWLQXHV7KHGHEDWHKDVWDNHQWKHIRUPRIOHJLVODWLYHDFWLRQVOLNHWKHSURSRVHG7DX]LQ
'LQJDOO %LOO ZKLFK ZRXOG OLPLW EURDGEDQG SURYLVLRQ WR RQO\ WKH UHJLRQDO PRQRSROLHV 6RPH KDYH
SURJQRVWLFDWHG WKDW ZLUHOHVV ORFDO ORRS VROXWLRQ FRXOG EH WKH VROXWLRQ WR WKH ³ODVW PLOH´ GLOHPPD EXW
WKLV WRR GHSHQGV RQ SXEOLF SROLF\ DFWLRQV WKDW PDNH HOHFWURPDJQHWLF VSHFWUXP DYDLODEOH IRU QHZ
WHFKQRORJLHVWREURDGFDVWRYHU(FRQRPLVW
0RUH UDGLFDO SROLF\ VWUDWHJLHV FDOO IRU WKH GHUHJXODWLRQ RI VSHFWUXP DOORFDWLRQ ZKHUH VSHFWUXP LV WUHDWHG DV SURSHUW\
DOORZLQJWKHRZQHUWRXVHWKHLUIUHTXHQF\IRUZKDWHYHUDSSOLFDWLRQWKH\VHHEHVWILWRUPRVWSURILWDEOH(FRQRPLVW
,QWKHFXUUHQWGHUHJXODWHGPDUNHWZKHUHGHPDQGLVJUHDWHVWWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVZLOOEHVXSSOLHG
UHVXOWLQJ LQ JHRJUDSKLF ELDVHV 7KH SULQFLSDO ELDV LV ORFDWLRQV ZLWK DJJORPHUDWLRQV RI SRSXODWLRQ DQG
HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ ZLOO EH GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO\ VXSSOLHG WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV VHUYLFHV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
*DVSHUDQG*ODHVHU0RVV0DOHFNL7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWFRPPXQLFDWLRQLQQRYDWLRQV
SURSDJDWHDFRUHSHULSKHU\HIIHFWRI,7ZKHUHDPRUHUHILQHGVSDWLDOGLYLVLRQRI³LQIRUPDWLRQODERXU´
KDVGHYHORSHG+HSZRUWKS7KHDJJORPHUDWLRQRIGHPDQGDQGVNLOOHGODERULVWKHEDVLVRI
WKH RSSRVLQJ DUJXPHQW WKDW ZH ZLOO QRW VHH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV FDXVLQJ WKH ³HQG RI
JHRJUDSK\´RUWKHGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQRIHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\7KHIXQGDPHQWDOTXHVWLRQVHSDUDWLQJWKHWZR
DUJXPHQWV LV ZKHWKHU WKH FRUH ODUJH XUEDQ DUHDV RU WKH SHULSKHU\ UXUDO DQG VPDOO XUEDQ DUHDV ZLOO
JURZDQGGHYHORSDVDUHVXOWRIWKHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG,7UHYROXWLRQDQGDWZKDWUDWHHDFKZLOO
JURZ
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV1HWZRUNVLQ(XURSHDQGWKH/LEHUDOL]DWLRQ
7KHSLFWXUHRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVLQ(XURSHLVUDWKHUGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRQHGHSLFWHGIRUWKH
8QLWHG6WDWHV$OWKRXJKQRZGHYHORSLQJDWDKLJKHUVSHHG(XURSHLVVWLOOVHYHUDOVWHSVEHKLQGWKH86
LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DGYDQFHG V\VWHPV RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV DQG VHUYLFHV 7KH
GHSOR\PHQW RI SK\VLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQ (XURSH KDV EHHQ VORZHG GRZQ E\ VHYHUDO IDFWRUV VXFK DV
LQVWLWXWLRQDO IUDPHZRUNV GHWHUPLQHG E\ LQWUD DQG LQWHUFRXQWU\ UHJXODWLRQV LQ FRQWUDVW WR WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHVZKHUHDQHDUOLHUGHUHJXODWLRQLQDOORZHGIRUIDVWHUGHYHORSPHQWZKLFKZDVDOVRSXVKHGE\
UDSLGO\ULVLQJGHPDQG
(XURSHLVQRZEHJLQQLQJWRFDWFKXS-XVWEHWZHHQ-XO\DQG-DQXDU\EURDGEDQGXVHUV
JUHZE\UHDFKLQJDWRWDORIPLOOLRQXVHUV7KHRYHUDOOJURZWKVLQFHWKHPRQWKRI-XO\
ZDV%DOEL%\PLOOLRQEURDGEDQGXVHUVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHORFDWHGLQ(XURSHDQG
RIKRXVHKROGVLQ(XURSH±LQSDUWLFXODU:HVWHUQ(XURSH±DUHHVWLPDWHGWREHHTXLSSHGZLWKKLJK
VSHHG FRQQHFWLRQV ,1$ 6XFK LPSUHVVLYH ILJXUHV ZLOO UHTXLUH H[WHQVLYH LQYHVWPHQWV IRU WKH
GHSOR\PHQW RI FDSDEOH VRSKLVWLFDWHG DQG LQWHJUDWHG QHWZRUNV DOO RYHU (XURSH 5HFHQWO\ WKH
GHYHORSPHQW RI WKHVH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV DGYDQFHG DW GLIIHUHQW SDFHV DFURVV FRXQWULHV LQ (XURSH 7DEOH VKRZV WKH UHFHQW GHYHORSPHQW RI ,QWHUQHW KRVWV DQG XVHUV LQ (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV EHWZHHQ DQG
DV ORQJ DV WKH YDOXHV RI VHYHUDO HFRQRPLF VRFLDO DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO YDULDEOHV 2YHU WKH VKRUW
SHULRG RI D \HDU ,QWHUQHW XVHUV DQG KRVWV LQFUHDVHG LQ PRVW RI WKH OLVWHG FRXQWULHV RIWHQ DW UDWHV
EHWZHHQDQG:KLOHWKHYDOXHVRIWKH(GXFDWLRQ,QGH[VHH81'3 IRUGHWDLOVVHHP
WRVXJJHVWWKDWWKHPRVWHGXFDWHGFRXQWULHVHQMR\KLJKHUOHYHOVRI,QWHUQHWSHQHWUDWLRQYDULDEOHVVXFKDV
SHUFDSLWD*'3GRQRWVKRZDFOHDUFRPPRQSDWWHUQLIFRPSDUHGZLWKWKH,QWHUQHWUHODWHGYDULDEOHV
,IRQHFRQVLGHUVWKH(XURSHDQQHWZRUNLQWHUPVRI,QWHUQHWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHRQHFDQREVHUYHWKDWWKHUH
DUH FOHDU GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ (XURSH DQG WKH 86 LQ WHUPV RI ,QWHUQHW QHWZRUN LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 6HYHUDO
VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW RQ WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ )RU H[DPSOH *RUPDQ KDV FDOFXODWHG WKH
DOSKDDQG JDPPDLQGLFHVDPRQJRWKHUV IRU(XURSHDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWRPHDVXUHWKH QHWZRUN¶V
UHGXQGDQF\ DQG LQWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\ UHVSHFWLYHO\ *RUPDQ¶V ILQGLQJV VKRZ D UHGXQGDQF\ IRU WKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ ZKLOH (XURSH RQO\ KDG D UHGXQGDQF\ UDWH ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR XQGHUOLQH
WKRXJKKRZ(XURSHKDVSURJUHVVHGE\LPSURYLQJLWVLQGH[IURPLQWRLQ(XURSH
VKRZVDORZHUYDOXHIRUWKHLQWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\JDPPDLQGH[FRPSDUHGWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV7KHJDPPD
LQGH[ YDOXH IRU (XURSH LV ZKLOH WKH 86 VFRUH D 6LQFH WKH JDPPD LQGH[ KDV SUHYLRXVO\
EHHQVKRZQWREHFRUUHODWHGWRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW WKHORZYDOXHREVHUYHGIRU(XURSHKDVWREH
H[SODLQHGE\FRPSOHPHQWDU\RUGLIIHUHQWIDFWRUV$PDMRUIDFWRULQWKLVVHWWLQJLVUHJXODWLRQRUSHUKDSV
PRUHSUHFLVHO\ODFNRIGHUHJXODWLRQ*RUPDQ
,Q WKH IUDPHZRUN RI WKH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV LQGXVWU\ WKH (XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQODLGGRZQDVHWRINH\UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKHRSHUDWRUVWRPHHWDQGWKH1DWLRQDO5HJXODWRU\
$XWKRULWLHV15$VWRHQIRUFH7KHVHUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHUHODWHGLQSDUWLFXODUWR
x
FRQWURORIUHWDLOSULFHV
x
8QLYHUVDO6HUYLFH2EOLJDWLRQ862
x
FRQWURORIDFFHVVSULFHV
7KHDOSKDLQGH[LVFDOFXODWHGDVWKHUDWLREHWZHHQWKHQXPEHURIORRSVREVHUYHGRYHUDQHWZRUNDQGWKHPD[LPXPSRVVLEOH
QXPEHURIORRSVLQWKHJLYHQQHWZRUN7KHJDPPDLQGH[LVLQVWHDGFRPSXWHGDVWKHUDWLREHWZHHQREVHUYHGDQGWKHRUHWLFDO
PD[LPXP QXPEHU RI QRGHV EHORQJLQJ WR WKH JLYHQ QHWZRUN 6HH EHWZHHQ RWKHUV+DJJHWW DQG &KRUOH\ IRU PRUH
GHWDLOVRQQHWZRUNLQGLFHV
$PRQJRWKHUV.DQVN\DQG*DUULVRQGHPRQVWUDWHGWKHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGWKH
JDPPDLQGH[
7DEOH±6RFLDOHFRQRPLFDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOYDULDEOHVIRUVHOHFWHG(XURSHDQ&RXQWULHV
/LVWRI
7RWDO3RSXODWLRQ0
2QOLQH3RSXODWLRQ ,QWHUQHW+RVWVSHU
,QWHUQHW+RVWVSHU
,QWHUQHW8VHUVSHU ,QWHUQHW8VHUVSHU
&RXQWULHV
± NLQKDE
NLQKDE
NLQKDE NLQKDE
$XVWULD
'HQPDUN
(VWRQLD
)LQODQG
*HUPDQ\
,WDO\
1HWKHUODQGV
1RUZD\
3RUWXJDO
6ZHGHQ
6ZLW]HUODQG
8QLWHG.LQJGRPV
$YHUDJH
0HGLDQ
8QLWHG6WDWHV
7RWDO,QWHUQHW
%DQGZLGWK 7HFKQRORJ\$FKLHYHPHQW *'3SHUFDSLWD 5'([SHQGLWXUHDV +XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW
(GXFDWLRQ
0ESV
,QGH[ 33386
RI*13± ,QGH[+',9DOXH
,QGH[
$XVWULD
'HQPDUN
(VWRQLD
)LQODQG
*HUPDQ\
,WDO\
1HWKHUODQGV
1RUZD\
3RUWXJDO
6ZHGHQ
6ZLW]HUODQG
8QLWHG.LQJGRPV
$YHUDJH
0HGLDQ
8QLWHG6WDWHV
6RXUFHV,7818$3DFNHW*HRJUDSK\81'3
7KH VHFRQG DQG WKLUG UHTXLUHPHQWV DUH RI SDUWLFXODU LPSRUWDQFH LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI RXU UHVHDUFK
&RQWURO RYHU DFFHVVSULFHV LV LQ IDFW WR D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH D UHJXODWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ PDUNHW
7KHSULFHVIRUOHDVHGOLQHVFRQWULEXWHWRGHWHUPLQLQJWKHZLOOLQJQHVVE\DQLQFRPLQJRSHUDWRUWRLQYHVW
FDSLWDOLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHRUUHQWOLQHV/HDVLQJOLQHVLQ(XURSHLVVWLOOPXFKPRUHH[SHQVLYHWKDQLQWKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV DOWKRXJK SULFHV DUH VORZO\ PRYLQJ LQ DJUHHPHQW ZLWK LQWHUQDWLRQDO UDWHV 7KLV HIIHFW
PD\EHGXHWRWKHHPHUJLQJFRPSHWLWLRQLQUHFHQW\HDUV3HUKDSVWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQWULEXWHGWR
WKLVWUHQGZKLFKZDVWKHLQWHQWLRQRIWKH(XURSHDQSROLF\PDNHUV ,QDGGLWLRQWRLQWHUFRQQHFWLRQDQG
LQWHURSHUDELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNV LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ IDFWRUV
VXFKDVWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIEXLOGLQJXSDOWHUQDWLYHWHFKQRORJ\SODWIRUPVDQGDFTXLULQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQG
HVVHQWLDOIDFLOLWLHV&DYHDQG&UDQGDOO
,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWUHJDUGLQJ862FRQVLVWVRIWKHREOLJDWLRQWRVHUYHHYHU\FXVWRPHUDWWKH
VDPHSULFH 7KLVUHTXLUHPHQWLQIOXHQFHVWKHDELOLW\RIRSHUDWRUVWRRIIHUORZHUSULFHVWRSUHIHUUHGPRUH
FRQYHQLHQWDUHDVRUFXVWRPHUV
6RPH KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW SULFH UHJXODWLRQ VKRXOG EH DVVLJQHG WR D FHQWUDOL]HG (XURSHDQ
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV DXWKRULW\ 7KLV LVVXH KDV EHHQ GLVFXVVHG VLQFH WKH HDUO\ ¶V EXW WKH FUHDWLRQ RI
VXFKDQLQVWLWXWLRQZRXOGUHTXLUHDORVVRISRZHUVE\WKH15$VZKLFKDUHLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVXQGHU
FRQWURORIWKHJRYHUQPHQW0RVWRIDOODFKDQJHLQWKH(XURSHDQ7UHDW\ZRXOGEHQHHGHGZKLFKZRXOG
WKHQ UHTXLUH UDWLILFDWLRQ RIWHQ YLD D UHIHUHQGXP E\ DOO WKH PHPEHU FRXQWULHV %HUJPDQ HW DO &DYHDQG&UDQGDOO2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDFHQWUDODXWKRULW\ZRXOGEHDEOHWRGHDOZLWKFRQIOLFWV
EHWZHHQ15$VDQG(XURSHDQUHJXODWRUVDQGZRXOGFRPSOHPHQW(8SROLFLHV 7KLVWUHQGJRHVLQWKH
RSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZKHUHVRPHGLVFXVVLRQVKDYHEHHQ JRLQJRQ DERXWDSRVVLEOH
HOLPLQDWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV¶)&&
'HVSLWH WKH LVVXHV GLVFXVVHG DERYH WKH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ SURFHVV ZDV XQWLO QRZ VXUSULVLQJO\
VXFFHVVIXO DV SURJUHVV KDV EHHQ PDGH LQ VHYHUDO ILHOGV $ QXPEHU RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV RSHUDWRUV
KDYH LQ IDFW EHHQ SULYDWL]HG DQG DFFHVV EDUULHUV IRU WKH WHOHFRP PDUNHW KDYH EHHQ HOLPLQDWHG E\
OLEHUDOL]LQJ HQWU\ 3ULFHV KDYH DOVR GURSSHG LQ SDUWLFXODU EHJLQQLQJ LQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH
GHSOR\PHQWRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVVWLOOOLPLWHGDQGWHQGVWRDJJORPHUDWHQHDULPSRUWDQWEXVLQHVVFHQWHUV
&DYH DQG &UDQGDOO K\SRWKHVL]H WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D FRPPXQLW\ RI LQWHUHVW PD\ KDYH GHOD\HG WKH GHFUHDVH LQ OLQH
OHDVLQJSULFHV6XFKDEHKDYLRUPLJKWKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOHE\WKHODFNRIGHUHJXODWLRQLQWKHPDWWHUDQGWKHILQDQFLDOEDUULHUV
IRUWKHHQWU\LQWKHPDUNHW
,QGHWDLOWKH862UHTXLUHPHQWFRQVLVWVRIGLPHQVLRQVDXQLYHUVDOJHRJUDSKLFDOFRYHUDJHEJHRJUDSKLFDODYHUDJLQJRI
WDULIIVFEDVLFWHOHFRPVHUYLFHSURYLGHGDWDIIRUGDEOHSULFH&DYHDQG&UDQGDOO
HJ )UDQNIXUW RU %UXVVHOV $Q LPSRUWDQW SROLF\ FRQFHUQ DUH ORQJWHUP FRPPLWPHQWV KDYH WR EH
IDYRUHGLQRUGHUWRIDFLOLWDWHWKHGHSOR\PHQWRIQHZEURDGEDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV0RUHRYHU%HUJPDQHW
DOVWUHVVKRZWKHSURPRWLRQRILQQRYDWLRQLVWLHGWRVXFKORQJWHUPFRPPLWPHQWV7KHILQDQFLDO
QHHGV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQYHVWPHQWV LQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV DUH RQH RI WKH UHDVRQV IRU WKH WUHQG GLUHFWHG
WRZDUGV WKH DJJORPHUDWLRQ RI ILUPV LQ VWUDWHJLF RU ILQDQFLDO DOOLDQFHV VHH HJ $OOHQ ,Q IDFW
EHFDXVHRIWKHODUJHYROXPHRIFXVWRPHUVUHTXLUHGWRPDNHWKHFRQQHFWLRQWRDQHZQHWZRUNSURILWDEOH
ODUJH DQG JOREDO RSHUDWRUV ³DUH WKH PDLQ WDUJHW JURXS IRU GLUHFW ILEUH RSWLF FRQQHFWLRQV´ 3HKUVVRQ
S ,Q DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH 8QLWHG .LQJGRP¶V DQG 6ZHGHQ¶V WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV PDUNHWV
3HKUVVRQ QRWHV LQ IDFW WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI GHUHJXODWLRQ DQG WKH FDSLWDO QHHGHG IRU LQYHVWPHQWV LQ
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHLPSRUWDQWEDUULHUVWRWKHHQWUDQFHRIQHZRSHUDWRUV
)LQDOO\ LQ VXPPDU\ WKH DERYH GLVFXVVLRQ UHFDOOV WKDW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D FRPSHWLWLYH
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVPDUNHWLVDVWUDWHJLFODQGPDUNLQWKHJURZWKRIWKHQHWZRUNV,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKH
FRQFHSW RI VFDOHIUHH QHWZRUN FDPH UHFHQWO\ WR WKH IRUH E\ VKRZLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO RI ORQJWHUP
FRUUHODWLRQVH[SUHVVHGE\ SRZHUODZ GLVWULEXWLRQV 5HJJLDQL DQG 6FKLQWOHU 7KH HPHUJHQFH RI
VFDOHIUHHSKHQRPHQDLQWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQQHWZRUNVPLJKWEHWKHUHIRUHWLHGWRWKHHIILFLHQF\RIWKH
OLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVDQGLWVHQIRUFHPHQW
7KH QH[W VHFWLRQ ZLOO EULHIO\ GHVFULEH WKH VFDOHIUHH SURSHUWLHV ZKLFK HVVHQWLDOO\ HYROYH LQ ODUJH
FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV WKURXJK VHOIRUJDQL]HG SURFHVVHV DQG PRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ SUHIHUHQWLDO DWWDFKPHQW
7KH VXEVHTXHQW 6HFWLRQ ZLOO WKHQ LOOXVWUDWH WKH HPSLULFDO ILQGLQJV HPHUJLQJ IURP WKH VFDOHIUHH
DSSURDFK ZLWKUHIHUHQFHWR WKH DQDO\VLV RI 86 DQG (XURSHDQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV GDWD 7KH SRWHQWLDO
IDFWRUV WKDW PLJKW KDYH FDXVHG QHWZRUNV WR JURZ IROORZLQJ GLIIHUHQW SDWWHUQV DQG WUHQGV ZLOO EH
RXWOLQHGLQWKLVIUDPHZRUN
6FDOH)UHH1HWZRUNVDQG3RZHU/DZ'LVWULEXWLRQV
)RUWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHWK FHQWXU\WKHDEVHQFHRIGHWDLOHGWRSRORJLFDOGDWDIRUFRPSOH[QHWZRUNVOHIW
UDQGRP QHWZRUN PRGHOV (UGRV DQG 5HQ\L DV WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ XVHG PHWKRG RI QHWZRUN VLPXODWLRQ
%DUDEDVL $V FRPSXWLQJ SRZHU LQFUHDVHG DQG UHDO ZRUOG QHWZRUN GDWD EHJDQ WR EHFRPH
DYDLODEOH VHYHUDO HPSLULFDO ILQGLQJV HPHUJHG 7KUHH QHWZRUN FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IUHTXHQWO\ UHVXOWHG IURP
WKHDQDO\VLVRIFRPSOH[QHWZRUNV$OEHUWDQG%DUDEDVLSS±
$OWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKHVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGVXFKDVDVHOIUHJXODWLRQUHJLPHWREHVHWEHWZHHQWKH15$VRUDVDPLGGOH
RIWKHZD\DSSURDFKDWZRWLHUUHJXODWLRQLQ ZKLFKWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQWKH15$VWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVRSHUDWRUV
6KRUWDYHUDJHSDWKOHQJWK
+LJKOHYHORIFOXVWHULQJ
3RZHUODZDQGH[SRQHQWLDOGHJUHHGLVWULEXWLRQV
6KRUW DYHUDJH SDWK OHQJWK LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ DQ\ WZR QRGHV RQ WKH QHWZRUN LV
VKRUWWKH\FDQEHUHDFKHGLQDIHZQXPEHURIKRSVDORQJHGJHV&OXVWHULQJRFFXUVZKHQQRGHVORFDWH
WRSRORJLFDOO\FORVHWRHDFKRWKHULQFOLTXHVWKDWDUHZHOOFRQQHFWHGWRHDFKRWKHU/DVWO\WKHIUHTXHQF\
GLVWULEXWLRQVRIQRGHFRQQHFWLYLW\FDOOHGGHJUHHVRIWHQIROORZSRZHUODZVRUH[SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQV
,QDSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQWKHUHLVDQDEXQGDQFHRIQRGHVZLWKRQO\DIHZOLQNVDQGDVPDOOEXW
VLJQLILFDQWPLQRULW\WKDWKDYHDYHU\ODUJHQXPEHURIOLQNV%DUDEDVL,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKLV
LV GLVWLQFWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH PRGHOV GHYHORSHG E\ (UGRV DQG 5HQ\L (5 RU :DWWV DQG
6WURJDW]:6WKHSUREDELOLW\RIILQGLQJDKLJKO\FRQQHFWHGYHUWH[LQWKH(5DQG:6PRGHOV
GHFUHDVHVH[SRQHQWLDOO\VRWKDW³YHUWLFHVZLWKKLJKFRQQHFWLYLW\DUHSUDFWLFDOO\DEVHQW´ %DUDEDVLDQG
$OEHUWS7KHUHDVRQDFFRUGLQJWR%DUDEDVLDQG$OEHUWZDVWKDWWKHLUPRGHODGGHGDQRWKHU
SHUVSHFWLYH WR FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV LQFRUSRUDWLQJ QHWZRUN JURZWK WKH QXPEHU RI QRGHV GRHV QRW VWD\
FRQVWDQWDVLQWKH:6DQG(5PRGHO7KH%DUDEDVL$OEHUW%$PRGHOVDGGHG JURZWKRYHUWLPHDQG
WKHLGHDWKDWQHZYHUWLFHVDWWDFKSUHIHUHQWLDOO\WRDOUHDG\ZHOOFRQQHFWHGYHUWLFHVLQWKHQHWZRUN
%DUDEDVLDQG$OEHUWIRUPDOL]HGWKLVLGHDLQ³(PHUJHQFHRI6FDOLQJLQ5DQGRP1HWZRUNV´
7KH\VWDWHGWKDWLQDFRPSOH[QHWZRUNOLNHWKH:RUOG:LGH:HEWKHSUREDELOLW\3NWKDWDYHUWH[LQ
WKHQHWZRUNLQWHUDFWVZLWKNRWKHUYHUWLFHVGHFD\VDVDSRZHUODZIROORZLQJ3NaNJ ZKHUHWKHSRZHU
ODZH[SRQHQWLVHTXDOWR WKUHH :KHQ VWXG\LQJ UHDO ZRUOG VFDOHIUHH QHWZRUNV HPSLULFDO UHVXOWV KDYH
UDQJHG IURP WR %DUDEDVL DQG $OEHUW :KLOH WKH PRGHO VHW XS E\ %DUDEDVL DQG $OEHUW
SURGXFHVDQH[SRQHQWRIWKUHHWKH\GHPRQVWUDWHKRZWKHPRGHOFDQEHDOWHUHGWRSURGXFHUHVXOWVRWKHU
WKDQWKUHHIRUGLIIHUHQWQHWZRUNFRQGLWLRQV7KH%$PRGHOLVEDVHGRQWKUHHPHFKDQLVPVWKDWGULYHWKH
HYROXWLRQRIJUDSKVWUXFWXUHVRYHUWLPHWRSURGXFHSRZHUODZUHODWLRQVKLSV&KHQHWDOS
x
,QFUHPHQWDO JURZWK ± ,QFUHPHQWDO JURZWK IROORZV IURP WKH REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW PRVW QHWZRUNV
GHYHORSRYHUWLPHE\DGGLQJQHZQRGHVDQGQHZOLQNVWRDQH[LVWLQJJUDSKVWUXFWXUH
DQGPDQXIDFWXULQJILUPVFRQVXPHUXQLRQVDQGRWKHUUHOHYDQWDJHQWVDUHLQYROYHG%HUJPDQHWDO
%DUDEDVLDQG$OEHUW¶VGHILQLWLRQRIKLJKFRQQHFWLYLW\LVUHODWLYHWRWKHQXPEHURIQRGHVLQWKHQHWZRUNDQGLQWKLVFRQWH[W
LWVLPSO\PHDQVDODUJHSURSRUWLRQRQWKHWRWDOFRQQHFWLRQVLQWKHQHWZRUN7KHRGGVRIDQRGHKDYLQJDODUJHSURSRUWLRQRQ
FRQQHFWLRQVLQDQHWZRUNDUHVPDOOHQRXJKWKDWWKH\DUHOLNHO\WREH³SUDFWLFDOO\DEVHQW´
x
3UHIHUHQWLDO FRQQHFWLYLW\ ± 3UHIHUHQWLDO FRQQHFWLYLW\ H[SUHVVHV WKH IUHTXHQWO\ HQFRXQWHUHG
SKHQRPHQRQ WKDW WKHUH LV D KLJKHU SUREDELOLW\ IRU D QHZ RU H[LVWLQJ QRGH WR FRQQHFW RU
UHFRQQHFWWRDQRGHWKDWDOUHDG\KDVDODUJHQXPEHURIOLQNVLHKLJKYHUWH[GHJUHHWKDQWKHUH
x
LVWRUHFRQQHFWWRDORZGHJUHHYHUWH[
5HZLULQJ ± 5HZLULQJ DOORZV IRU VRPH DGGLWLRQDO IOH[LELOLW\ LQ WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI QHWZRUNV E\
UHPRYLQJ OLQNV FRQQHFWHG WR FHUWDLQ QRGHV DQG UHSODFLQJ WKHP ZLWK QHZ OLQNV LQ D ZD\ WKDW
HIIHFWLYHO\DPRXQWVWRDORFDOW\SHRIUHVKXIIOLQJFRQQHFWLRQEDVHGRQSUHIHUHQWLDODWWDFKPHQW
,QPDQ\ ZD\VKXEDQGVSRNH DLUOLQHQHWZRUNVVHUYH DVD JRRGSUDFWLFDOH[DPSOHRIDVFDOH IUHH
QHWZRUN+XEDQGVSRNHQHWZRUNVVKRZSUHIHUHQWLDOFRQQHFWLYLW\WRWKHPDMRUDLUSRUWVKXEVIURPWKH
PLQRU DLUSRUWV ZKLOH WKH PDMRU KXEV DUH IXOO\ LQWHUFRQQHFWHG 7KH PDMRU KXE DLUSRUWV DUH VPDOO LQ
QXPEHU \HW WKH\ KDYH WKH YDVW PDMRULW\ RI WKH FRQQHFWLRQV LQ WKH JOREDO DLUOLQH QHWZRUN )URP D
WHFKQLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHWKRXJKDLUOLQH QHWZRUN FRQQHFWLYLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQV GR QRW TXLWH ILW D SRZHU ODZ
WKH\ KDYH DQ H[SRQHQWLDO FXW RII EHFDXVH WKHUH LV D SK\VLFDO FRQVWUDLQW RI WKH QXPEHU RI SODQHV DQ
DLUSRUWFDQKDQGOHSUHYHQWLQJDFRPSOHWHSRZHUODZILW$PDUDOHWDO$ODUJHOLWHUDWXUHLVQRZ
DYDLODEOHRQKXEVSRNHQHWZRUN6HHIRUH[DPSOH2XPHWDO:RMDKQ%RZHQ
7KHUHKDYHWKRXJKEHHQRWKHURSLQLRQVRQKRZFRPSOH[QHWZRUNVVKRXOGEHFODVVLILHG$PDUDOHW
DODUJXHWKDWVFDOHIUHHQHWZRUNVDUHDVXEFODVVRIVPDOOZRUOGQHWZRUNV$QH[DFWGHOLQHDWLRQ
RIZKHUHVPDOOZRUOGDQGVFDOHIUHHQHWZRUNVGLYHUJHLVVWLOOVRPHZKDWIX]]\LQWKHOLWHUDWXUHEXWWKH
DUHD RI VWXG\ LV VWLOO HYROYLQJ ,W FDQ EH VDIHO\ VDLG WKDW WKH WZR DUH LQWHUUHODWHG DQG WKDW JHQHUDOO\
VSHDNLQJ VFDOHIUHH QHWZRUNV H[KLELW WKH FOXVWHULQJ DQG VKRUW DYHUDJH SDWK OHQJWK RI VPDOO ZRUOG
QHWZRUNVEXWQRWDOOVPDOOZRUOGQHWZRUNVH[KLELWWKHSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQRIVFDOHIUHHQHWZRUNV
7KH QH[W VHFWLRQ LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH HPHUJHQFH RI VFDOHIUHH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ WKH 86 DQG (XURSHDQ
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVE\ORRNLQJDWWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIILEHURSWLF FRQQHFWLRQVEHWZHHQFLWLHV
RIWKHGDWDVHW
,Q KXEDQGVSRNH QHWZRUNV WUDIILF LV GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV IHZ PDMRU KXEV RU WUDQVIHU IDFLOLWLHV ZKLFK VHUYH DV
LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ PRUH SHULSKHUDO SRLQWV RI WKH QHWZRUN 7KHUHIRUH WUDIILF GRHV QRW PRYH DQ\PRUH GLUHFWO\ IURP
RULJLQ WR GHVWLQDWLRQ 7KLV W\SH RI QHWZRUN DLPV WR ³PLQLPL]H WKH WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ FRVW SOXV WKH FRVW RI KXE RSHUDWLRQ´
%DOORXS
7KH(PSLULFDO$SSOLFDWLRQVWR86DQG(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLFDWLRQ1HWZRUNV
3UHIDFH
7KH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG (XURSH GLIIHU TXLWH FRQVLGHUDEO\ LQ WHUPV RI WKH FRQQHFWLYLW\ RI WKHLU
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNV±LHDVVHHQLQSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVRIWKHLUFRPSDUDWLYHJUDSKWKHRUHWLFDO
LQGLFHVRIFRQQHFWLYLW\ *RUPDQ 7KLV VHFWLRQ SUHVHQWV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DQDO\VLV FRQGXFWHG WR
H[DPLQHHDFKUHJLRQVQHWZRUNSURSHUWLHVLQFOXGLQJDFOXVWHUDQDO\VLVWRJURXSFLWLHVZLWKLQHDFKUHJLRQ
LQ WHUPV RI FRQQHFWLYLW\ SURSHUWLHV 6HFWLRQ EULHIO\ GLVFXVVHV VRPH RI WKH FXOWXUDO HFRQRPLF
SROLWLFDO DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO IDFWRUV WKDW KDYH OLNHO\ FRQWULEXWHG WR WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV DOWKRXJK D PRUH
ULJRURXVH[DPLQHRIWKLVLVZDUUDQWHG
(PSLULFDO)LQGLQJVIRUWKH(XURSHDQ1HWZRUNV
7KLV VHFWLRQ GHVFULEHV WKH UHVXOWV RI RXU DQDO\VLV RI (XURSHDQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUNV ,W ZLOO
VKRZWKDWWKH(XURSHDQGDWDPLUURUWZRGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVWDWLVWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQVYL]DQH[SRQHQWLDO
DQG D SRZHU ODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG YHULI\ KRZ WKH VWDWLVWLFDO ILW FKDQJHV ZKHQ VSOLWWLQJ RXU GDWD LQ
VHYHUDOFOXVWHUV
7KH GDWD VHW XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV LV ILEHU RSWLF FDEOH GHSOR\HG DQG RZQHG E\ SDQ(XURSHDQ
QHWZRUNVLQFLWLHVGLVWULEXWHGRYHUFRXQWULHV$VXPPDU\RIWKHGDWDVHWFDQEHIRXQGLQ$QQH[
$ 7DEOH $ 2QO\ QHWZRUNV RSHUDWLQJ LQ PRUH WKDQ RQH FRXQWU\ DUH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH WKHUHIRUH
H[FOXGLQJ GRPHVWLF QHWZRUNV 2QO\ LQWHUQDWLRQDO OLQNV DUH FRQVLGHUHG DQG QR UHGXQGDQF\ ZLWKLQ
QHWZRUNVLVDVVXPHGLQWKLVFDVH 7KHGDWDVHWGDWHVEDFNWRWKHWKLUGTXDUWHURIWKXVLWLVIDLUO\
FXUUHQW %XW XQIRUWXQDWHO\ LW ZDV QRW SRVVLEOH WR FDSWXUH WKH ODWHVW (XURSHDQ WUHQGV WKDW ZH RXWOLQHG
DERYH,QSDUWLFXODUWKHVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHVLQWKHGHPDQGRIEURDGEDQGFRQQHFWLRQVDLQFUHDVH
REVHUYHG EHWZHHQ -XO\ DQG -DQXDU\ PD\ KDYH SURPSWHG QHZ LQYHVWPHQWV DQG QHZ
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH (XURSHDQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUNV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG FRQVLGHUDEOH RYHU
FDSDFLW\ HPHUJHG LQ DV D UHVXOW RI RYHUVSHFXODWLRQ LQ QHWZRUNEXLOGLQJ &RQVHTXHQWO\
PXFK RI WKH UHFHQW EURDGEDQGUHODWHG JURZWK LQ GHPDQG ZLOO KDYH EHHQ XVLQJ ILEUH WKDW KDG EHHQ
LQVWDOOHG XS WR EXW WKDW KDG QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EHHQ OLW GXH WR WKH RYHUFDSDFLW\ SUREOHP ,W LV
WKHUHIRUHFOHDUWKDWPRUHUHFHQWGDWDDUHDPDLQQHHGLQWKHDQDO\VLVRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNV
1R LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ LV DYDLODEOH IURP WKLV GDWD VHW $ UDQNLQJ RI WKH PRVW FRQQHFWHG FLWLHV LQ WHUPV RI
UHGXQGDQWOLQNVVKRZVDPRVWO\VLPLODUVHWRIFLWLHVLIFRPSDUHGWRWKHWRSUDQNVRISK\VLFDOFRQQHFWLRQVVHH5XWKHUIRUGHW
DO7DEOH
,W LV QRWHZRUWK\ WKDW WZR YDULDEOHV DUH DYDLODEOH LQ RXU GDWD VHW UHSUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH
QHWZRUNV YDULDEOHUHIHUVWRWKHQXPEHURISDQ(XURSHDQQHWZRUNVSUHVHQWLQHDFKFLW\RIWKHGDWDVHW
ZKLOHWKHFRQQHFWLRQV YDULDEOHLVWKHQXPEHURIRWKHU(XURSHDQFLWLHVOLQNHGWRHDFKFLW\LQWKHGDWDVHW
YLDWKHQHWZRUN)RUH[DPSOHWKHFLW\RI+DPEXUJKDVOLQNVFRQQHFWLRQVWRGLIIHUHQW(XURSHDQ
FLWLHV7KHVHOLQNVDUHSURYLGHGE\QHWZRUNV WKDWDUHLQSODFH
)LJXUH±3DQ(XURSHDQILEHURSWLFQHWZRUNVSODQQHGRULQSODFH
6RXUFH5XWKHUIRUGHWDO)LJXUH&RS\ULJKWRIPDSLVZLWK.0,5HVHDUFKXVHGE\SHUPLVVLRQ
$IWHU KDYLQJ UDQNHG WKH GDWD VHW E\ FRQQHFWLRQ ZH FDQ REVHUYH WKDW WKH GHFD\ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI
FRQQHFWLRQVLVJUDGXDOLQSDUWLFXODUDIWHUWKHILUVWPDMRUFLWLHVRIWKHOLVW7KHPRVWFRQQHFWHGFLWLHVLQ
WKHGDWDVHWDUH+DPEXUJDQGVHFRQG/RQGRQZKLOHWKHOHDVWFRQQHFWHGFLWLHVDUHILYHFLWLHVVHUYHGE\
RQO\ILYHFRQQHFWLRQVHDFK0RUHRYHULQDUDQNRUGHURIWKHGDWDVHWRIFLWLHVFRPSXWHGE\QXPEHURI
QHWZRUNV+DPEXUJDQG/RQGRQDUHVWLOODWWKHWRSRIWKHOLVW,IZHFRPSXWHLQVWHDGVXEWRWDOVIRUHDFK
RIWKHFRXQWULHVWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRPLVDWWKHWRSIROORZHGE\)UDQFHDQG*HUPDQ\7KHVHWKUHH
QDWLRQVKDYHDQRYHUDOOQXPEHURIFRQQHFWLRQVWKDWLVPXFKKLJKHUWKDQHYHU\RWKHUFRXQWU\LQ(XURSH
&RQVLGHULQJWKHQXPEHURIFRQQHFWLRQVSHUFDSLWDZHFDQQRWHLQVWHDGWKDWUHODWLYHO\VPDOOFRXQWULHV
VXFK DV /X[HPERXUJ DQG 'HQPDUN DUH DW WKH WRS RI WKH OLVW HLWKHU EHFDXVH RI WKHLU UHOHYDQW
JHRJUDSKLFDOSRVLWLRQRUEHFDXVHRIKLJKHUGLIIXVLRQRIWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV
7KHSUHVHQFHLQWKHWRSUDQNVRIFLWLHVWKDWDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGWREHEHWZHHQWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWLQ
(XURSH ± VHH IRU H[DPSOH +DPEXUJ ZKLFK LV WRSSLQJ WKH OLVW ± LV GXH WR WKH UROH WKDW WKHVH FLWLHV
DFTXLUHG7KH\DUHLQIDFWLPSRUWDQWJDWHZD\V IRUSURYLGLQJODUJHDPRXQWV RI EDQGZLGWK LQ (XURSH
6RPH FLWLHV OLNH 3UDJXH RU &RSHQKDJHQ DOVR DFW DV WKH PDLQ ³GRRU´ WKURXJK ZKLFK PRUH SHULSKHUDO
UHJLRQVDUHFRQQHFWHGDQGSURYLGHGZLWKEDQGZLGWK5XWKHUIRUGHWDO
2QFHWKHGDWDVHWKDVEHHQUDQNHGDFFRUGLQJWRRQHYDULDEOHWKHDLPLVWRDQDO\]HKRZWKHYDULDEOH
LV GLVWULEXWHG RYHU WKH GDWD VHW )LJXUH VKRZV RQ D ORJORJ VFDOH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI
FRQQHFWLRQVRYHUWKH(XURSHDQWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUN7KHJUDSKVKRZVWKDWWKHGDWDPRVWO\ILW
DQH[SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQUHVXOWLQJLQD5 YDOXHRI,IZHLQYHVWLJDWHWKHH[LVWHQFHLQRXUGDWD
VHWRIDSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQWKHQDJDLQRQDORJORJVFDOHWKHUHLVDVWUDLJKWOLQH7KH5 UHIHUULQJ
WR D SRZHU ODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH FRQQHFWLRQ YDULDEOH LV HTXDO WR ZKLOH WKH H[SRQHQW IRU WKH
UHVXOWLQJIXQFWLRQLV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKHQHWZRUNV YDULDEOH VKRZV DQ H[SRQHQWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQDVZHOOUHDFKLQJD5 YDOXHRI
7KHUHVXOWVLOOXVWUDWHGDERYHVKRZDQHWZRUNWKDWVHHPVWREHPLVVLQJVFDOHIUHHSURSHUWLHVZKLFK
DUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQVHHHJ$OEHUWDQG%DUDEDVL$VOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQW
WZLVW LV JLYHQ WR WKHVH UHVXOWV E\ VSOLWWLQJ RXU GDWDVHW LQ VHSDUDWH FOXVWHUV :H KDYH WKHUHIRUH
FRPSXWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHYDOXHVRIWKHWZRDYDLODEOHYDULDEOHVILYHFOXVWHUVRXWRIWKHFRPSOHWHGDWD
VHW$KLHUDUFKLFDODVVRFLDWLYHPHWKRGZDVXVHGLQRUGHUWRFRPSXWHWKHFOXVWHUVQDPHO\WKHRQHRIWKH
PRVWUHPRWHQHLJKERURUFRPSOHWHOLQNDJHVHHHJ$QGHUEHUJ+DWLJDQ7KHIXUWKHVW
QHLJKERU FRPSXWDWLRQV UHVXOW LQ PRUH KRPRJHQHRXV FOXVWHUV ZKLFK DUH FRPSXWHG E\ PHDQV RI
DJJUHJDWLRQ7KHDOJRULWKPLWHUDWLYHO\FRPSXWHVWKH(XFOLGHDQGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKHIXUWKHVWPHPEHUV
RI WZR FOXVWHUV ZKLFK DUH LQLWLDOO\ FRPSRVHG E\ VLQJOH FLWLHV DQG DJJUHJDWHV WKH WZR FOXVWHUV
PLQLPL]LQJ WKLV PHDVXUH 7KH LWHUDWLRQV VWRS ZKHQ WKH LGHDO QXPEHU RI FOXVWHUV LV IRXQG 7KLV
7KH(XFOLGHDQGLVWDQFHLVFRPSXWHGDV
­
½
G LM ® ¦ [ LN [ MN ¾ ¯N ¿
ZKHUHLMLGHQWLI\WZRFOXVWHUVDQGL z MDQGNLVWKHQXPEHURIYDULDEOHVZKLFKLQRXUFDVHDUHQHWZRUNVDQGFRQQHFWLRQV
FRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHPD[LPL]DWLRQRIWKHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQZKLFKLVWKHLQFUHPHQWDOGLVWDQFHFRPSXWHG
EHWZHHQWKHFOXVWHUVDIWHUHDFKDJJUHJDWLRQ
\ H[
5 &RXQW
\ [
5 8UEDQ3RSXODWLRQ&HQWHUV
)LEHUOLQNV
3RZHU/DZ
)LJXUH± 7KHGLVWULEXWLRQRIFRQQHFWLRQVLQ(XURSHDQFLWLHV
([SRQHQWLDO
7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIRUWKHILYHFOXVWHUVDQGVKRZVWKHYDOXHVRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWV
IRU ERWK DQ H[SRQHQWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG D SRZHU ODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ ILWWLQJ WKH GDWD 7KH ILUVW FOXVWHU
REVHUYHG FRQWDLQLQJ WKH EHVWFRQQHFWHG FLWLHV EHWWHU ILWV D SRZHU ODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ WKDQ DQ
H[SRQHQWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH YDOXH RI WKH SRZHU ODZ H[SRQHQW LV HTXDO WR DQG WKHUHIRUH PXFK
KLJKHUWKDQWKHRQHIRUWKHFRPSOHWHGDWDVHW$PDSRIWKHFLWLHVEHORQJLQJWRWKHILUVWFOXVWHULV
SUHVHQWHGLQ$QQH[$)LJXUH$,WLVLQWHUHVWLQJWRQRWHWKDWWKHFLWLHVEHORQJLQJWRWKHILUVWFOXVWHU
DOVRFRUUHVSRQGDVLGHIRURQO\WRWKHWRS(XURSHDQFLWLHVIRUHVWLPDWHGWRWDOEDQGZLGWKRIEDFNERQH
FRQQHFWRUV5XWKHUIRUGHWDOUHSRUWHGLQ$QQH[$7KHFLWLHVH[FOXGHGE\WKHILUVWFOXVWHUVDUH
DQ\ZD\EHWZHHQWKHILUVWFLWLHVRIWKHVHFRQGFOXVWHU7KHWZROLVWVVHHPWKHUHIRUHWREHFRQVLVWHQWWR
DFHUWDLQGHJUHH
,Q FRQWUDVW WR WKH ILUVW FOXVWHU WKH UHPDLQLQJ IRXU FOXVWHUV FRQILUP D EHWWHU ILW WR H[SRQHQWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQV2QHREMHFWLYHKHUHLVWRXQGHUVWDQGZK\WKHPRVWFRQQHFWHGFLWLHVVKRZUHVXOWVWKDWDUH
GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH RYHUDOO RQHV %HFDXVH RI D UHGXFHG QXPEHU RI FDVHV DQDO\]HG LW LV FOHDU WKDW DQ\
MXGJPHQWRQWKLVFOXVWHUVKRXOGEHJLYHQZLWKFDXWLRQEXWRQHLVVWLOODEOHWRJLYHDQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI
WKLVUHVXOW$VSUHYLRXVO\H[SODLQHGLQWKHGHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH (XURSHDQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUNV
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH GHYHORSPHQW RIWHQ FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ WKH SUR[LPLW\ RI LPSRUWDQW EXVLQHVV FHQWHUV ZKLFK
ZRXOGDOORZIRUODUJHUHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOHIRU HQWHULQJRU UHLQYHVWLQJRSHUDWRUV7KH UHVXOWV REVHUYHG
IRUWKHILUVWFOXVWHURIGDWDVHHPWRVXJJHVWWKDWQHZDGRSWLRQSDWWHUQVDQGGHYHORSPHQWDUHWDNLQJSODFH
±DQGDUHVWDUWLQJDVH[SHFWHG±IURPWKHELJJHUPHWURSROLWDQFHQWHUVZKLFKDUHWKHQHDUHVWJURXSWR
VFDOHIUHHEHKDYLRU7KHHYROXWLRQRIWKLVFOXVWHURYHUWLPHZRXOGZLWKWKHSUHVHQFHRIXSGDWHGGDWD
DOORZIRUDFRQILUPDWLRQRIWKLVFHQWULIXJDOLW\K\SRWKHVLV
7DEOH± 7KHH[SRQHQWDQGFRHIILFLHQWYDOXHVIRUWKHH[SRQHQWLDODQGSRZHUODZIXQFWLRQVILWWLQJWKHQXPEHURI
FRQQHFWLRQVLQ(XURSHDQWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNV
1XPEHURI 1XPEHU ([SRQHQWLDO ([SRQHQWLDO 3RZHU/DZ 3RZHU/DZ
&RHII
&RHII
&OXVWHUV RI1RGHV
5
5
7RWDOV
(PSLULFDO)LQGLQJVIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&RPPXQLFDWLRQ1HWZRUNV
'DWDRQWKH1RUWK$PHULFDQORQJKDXOILEHURSWLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZDVFROOHFWHGIRUIURP3ODWWV,QF
7HOFR0DS *,6 SURGXFW 7KH GDWD VHW FRYHUV RYHU IRUW\ GLIIHUHQW SK\VLFDO ILEHU SURYLGHUV LQ 1RUWK
$PHULFD DQGFRQWDLQVDURXWHFRQILGHQFHOHYHOIRUWKH JHRJUDSKLFDFFXUDF\RI ULJKW RI ZD\ URXWLQJV
)LJXUH VKRZV WKH EDFNERQH QHWZRUN E\ ILEHU GHQVLW\ IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KH GLDJUDP LOOXVWUDWHV
WKDWWKHUHDUHDUHDVZLWKLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKDWDUHYHU\ZHOOFRQQHFWHGDQGPRVWRIWKHVHSRLQWVDUH
ORFDWHG ZLWKLQ RU QHDU PDMRU SRSXODWLRQ FHQWHUV $OVR WKHUH DUH ODUJH GHQVLWLHV RI SK\VLFDO ILEHU
FRQQHFWLQJWKHPDMRUPHWURGHPDQGFHQWHUV
,QRUGHUWRJHWDVHQVHRIWKHFRQQHFWLYLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH86ORQJKDXOILEHUQHWZRUNDQRYHO
*,6EDVHGWHFKQLTXHZDVLPSOHPHQWHG2QHRIWKHGLIILFXOWLHVLQH[DPLQLQJSK\VLFDOILEHUQHWZRUNVLV
GHWHUPLQLQJ ZKDW LV D OLQN DQG ZKDW LV D QRGH LQ WKH QHWZRUN :KHQ YHU\ GHQVH QHWZRUNV OLNH WKH
1RUWK$PHULFDQRQHDUHH[DPLQHGLWFDQEHH[FHHGLQJO\GLIILFXOW:KLOHWKHSK\VLFDOORFDWLRQGDWDFDQ
EH YHU\ VSHFLILF LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR NQRZ ZKDW SDUWV RI WKH ILEHU DUH QRGHV IRU LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ RU
URXWLQJRUHYHQZKRLVOHDVLQJWKHILEHUDQGKRZLWLVEHLQJXWLOL]HG-XVWEHFDXVHWZRILEHUOLQHVFURVV
LQ SK\VLFDO VSDFH LW GRHV QRW LPSO\ WKDW WKHUH LV DQ RSHUDWLRQDO URXWLQJ QRGH ORFDWHG WKHUH )XUWKHU
WKHUHFDQEHKXQGUHGVRIRSHUDWLRQDOQHWZRUNXWLOL]LQJDQ\RQHILEHUULJKWRIZD\7RFLUFXPYHQWWKLV
SUREOHP DQ RSHUDWLRQ ZDV H[HFXWHG LQ *,6 WR FDOFXODWH WKH QXPEHU RI ILEHU OLQHV LQWHUVHFWLQJ ZLWK
PHWURSROLWDQVWDWLVWLFDODUHDSURYLGLQJDSUR[\RIWKHQXPEHURIILEHUOLQHVRULJLQDWLQJIURPWKHDUHD
7KH ILEHU FRQQHFWLYLW\ IRU HYHU\ PHWURSROLWDQ DUHD DERYH SHRSOH ZDV WKHQ UDQN RUGHUHG DQG
SORWWHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH DQDO\VLV GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW WKH 86 ILEHU OLQN
QHWZRUNIROORZVDQH[SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQVLPLODUO\WRWKH(XURSHDQHTXLYDOHQW)LJXUHVKRZVWKH
H[SRQHQWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ,W FDQ EH VHHQ WKDW WKH PRGHO KDV D YHU\ JRRG ILW DV
LQGLFDWHGE\WKH5 RI,QWKHFDVHRISRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQILWWLQJWKH5 YDOXHLVZKLOHWKH
H[SRQHQWLVZKLFKZRXOGVXJJHVWDVWHHSVORSHDQGVLJQLILFDQWGLYLGHEHWZHHQWKHPRVWDQGOHDVW
FRQQHFWHG QRGHV LQ D QHWZRUN IURP DQ HFRQRPLF SHUVSHFWLYH WKLV ZRXOG LQGLFDWH D KLJK *LQL
FRHIILFLHQW DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ FRPSOH[ QHWZRUNV 5HJDUGLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ILEHU
OLQNV LW FDQ EH QRWHG WKDW WKH PRVW FRQQHFWHG FLWLHV RI WKH GDWD VHW VKRZ YDOXHV O\LQJ DERYH WKH
HVWLPDWHG FXUYH IRU DQ H[SRQHQWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KLV HYLGHQFH PLJKW LPSO\ WKDW ELJJHU ± RU PRUH
FRQQHFWHG±FLWLHVDUHQRZGHYHORSLQJIDVWHUWKDQWKHRWKHUV$VLPLODUSKHQRPHQRQKDVDOUHDG\EHHQ
REVHUYHGIRU,3EDFNERQHLQIUDVWUXFWXUH*RUPDQDQG.XONDUQL0RVVDQG7RZQVHQG
&OXVWHUVIRUWKH86GDWDRQWKHQXPEHURIOLQNVFRQVLVWLQJRIFLWLHVPHWURSROLWDQDUHDVWXUQHG
RXWWREHUDWKHUGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRQHVGHYHORSHGIRU(XURSH:KHWKHUE\XVLQJSRSXODWLRQLQDGGLWLRQ
WR WKH QXPEHU RI OLQNV LQ RUGHU WR DJJUHJDWH WKH FLWLHV RU E\ QRW XVLQJ LW RQO\ WZR FOXVWHUV DUH
SURSRVHG7KHGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHUHVXOWLQJFOXVWHUVVWDQGVLQWKHQXPEHURIFLWLHVEHORQJLQJWRWKHILUVW
FOXVWHU :KHQ SRSXODWLRQ LV DOVR FRQVLGHUHG WKH ILUVW FOXVWHUV HQODUJHV IURP FRPSULVLQJ RQO\ 1HZ
<RUN WR HPEUDFLQJ /RV $QJHOHV DQG &KLFDJR $GGLWLRQDO DQDO\VHV XWLOL]LQJ :DUG¶V KLHUDUFKLFDO
FOXVWHULQJPHWKRGVKRZHGWKDWWZRGLIIHUHQWFOXVWHUVFDQEHREWDLQHG7KHILUVWFOXVWHUFRPSULVHVWKH
WRSFLWLHVLQWHUPVRIOLQNV&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHVHFRQGFOXVWHUFRQWDLQVWKHUHPDLQLQJFLWLHV7KH
VPDOOVL]HRIWKHILUVWFOXVWHUGRHVQRWDOORZXVWRWKRURXJKO\H[DPLQHLWVFRQQHFWLYLW\GLVWULEXWLRQDV
5 YDOXHVIRUERWKH[SRQHQWLDODQGSRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQVVKRZKLJKYDOXHV
7KH*LQLLQGH[LVDPHDVXUHRILQHTXDOLW\LQGLVWULEXWLRQV7KHLQGH[ PHDVXUHVWKHH[WHQWWR ZKLFKWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRID
JLYHQYDULDEOHGLIIHUVIURPDSHUIHFWO\HTXDOGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHLQGH[FDQDVVXPHYDOXHVUDQJLQJIURPSHUIHFWHTXDOLW\WR
SHUIHFWLQHTXDOLW\7KHPRVWFRPPRQXVHRIWKH*LQLLQGH[LVIRUPHDVXULQJLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\
)RUGHWDLOVRQ:DUG¶VFOXVWHULQJPHWKRGVHH:DUGRUPRUHUHFHQWO\(O+DPGRXFKLDQG:LOOHWW
)LJXUH± 7KHEDFNERQHQHWZRUNE\EDQGZLGWKGHQVLW\IRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV
6LQJXODUO\WKHFLWLHVFRPSULVHGLQWKHILUVWFOXVWHUGRQRWFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHWRSFLWLHVLQWHUPVRI
SRSXODWLRQ:KLOHVHYHUDOPDMRUFLWLHVDQGPHWURSROLWDQDUHDVEHORQJWRWKHFOXVWHUZHVKRXOGQRWHWKH
SUHVHQFHRIUHODWLYHO\PLQRUDUHDVVXFKDV)RUW/DXGHUGDOH:HVW3DOP%HDFK(O3DVRRU%ULGJHSRUW
7KLVRFFXUUHQFHFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHJHRJUDSKLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVXFKFLWLHV'XHWRWKHSODQDU
QDWXUH RI ILEHU QHWZRUNV WKHVH FLWLHV DUH JDWHZD\V RQ WKH URDG WR PDMRU HQGRIWKHOLQH ORFDWLRQV
ZKLFKIRUWKLVUHDVRQHQMR\DODUJHUQXPEHURIOLQNV)RUH[DPSOH(O3DVRLVDQLPSRUWDQWURXWLQJKXE
EHWZHHQWKHODUJH/RV$QJHOHVDQG'DOODVPDUNHWV:KLOH(O3DVRGRHVQRWKDYHDODUJHGHPDQGLWVHOI
LWLVDQLPSRUWDQWJHRJUDSKLFORFDWLRQURXWLQJZLVH:KHQH[DPLQLQJWKHVHFXULW\RIDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
PRVWRIWHQSURPLQHQWLPSHWXVLVSODFHGRQWKHODUJHVWFLWLHVEXWDVWKLVDQDO\VLVSRLQWVRXWVPDOOHUEXW
JHRJUDSKLFDOO\VWUDWHJLFFLWLHVDUHDOVRLPSRUWDQWWRFRQVLGHU7KLVDOVRLOOXVWUDWHVDFULWLFDOGLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQWKHDQDO\VLVRIORJLFDOQHWZRUNVOLNHWKH,QWHUQHWDQGSK\VLFDOQHWZRUNVOLNHILEHURSWLFFDEOH
,Q DQ ,QWHUQHW QHWZRUN 'DOODV DQG /RV $QJHOHV ZRXOG KDYH D GLUHFW FRQQHFWLRQ WR HDFK RWKHU DQG (O
3DVRZRXOGEHDPLQRUORFDWLRQ%DVHGRQWKHQXPEHURIORJLFDO,QWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQV(O3DVRLVWK
EXWUDQNVWK LQSK\VLFDOILEHU%ULGJHSRUWLVHYHQPRUHGUDPDWLFDVDURXWLQJSRLQWEHWZHHQ1HZ<RUN
&LW\DQG%RVWRQ±UDQNLQJWK LQORJLFDO,QWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQVDQGWK LQSK\VLFDOILEHUFRQQHFWLRQV
7KHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQSODQDUDQGQRQSODQDUQHWZRUNVLVQRWRQO\VHHQLQFRQQHFWLYLW\GLVWULEXWLRQV
EXW DOVR ZKLFK SODFHV LQ WKRVH GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH LPSRUWDQW $OVR LW UHLQIRUFHV WKH IDFW WKDW DQ\ RQH
FRQQHFWLYLW\GLVWULEXWLRQFDQUHSUHVHQWDZLGHYDULHW\RIUHDOZRUOGWRSRORJLHV
\ [
5 &RXQW
\ H[
5 8UEDQ3RSXODWLRQ&HQWHUV
/LQNV
)LJXUH± 7KHGLVWULEXWLRQRIILEHUOLQNVLQ86FLWLHV
([SRQHQWLDO
3RZ HU/DZ
$&RPSDULVRQRIWKH5HVXOWV2EWDLQHGIRUWKH86DQG(XURSH
'LIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG (XURSH LQ WHUPV RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ SURSHUWLHV RI WKHLU
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUNV FDQ EH H[SODLQHG E\ WHFKQRORJLFDO HFRQRPLF FXOWXUDO DQG SROLF\
IDFWRUVDOORIZKLFKDUHYHU\PXFKLQWHUWZLQHG$VQRWHGLQ7DEOHWKH86OHDGV(XURSHLQWHUPVRI
VRPH RI WKH YDULDEOHV WKDW UHIOHFW WKHVH IDFWRUV ± LH *'3 SHU FDSLWD +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW ,QGH[
(GXFDWLRQ ,QGH[ DQG 5' H[SHQGLWXUHV )XUWKHU WKHUH LV D JUHDWHU VSDWLDO GLVSDULW\ EHWZHHQ WKHVH
IDFWRUVLQ(XURSHZKHUHDVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKH\ DUHUHODWLYHO\XQLIRUPDFURVVPHWURSROLWDQDUHDV
7KHH[FHSWLRQLVUXUDODUHDVDOWKRXJKWKH\DUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGLQWKLVDQDO\VLV
(XURSHKDVDOVRKLVWRULFDOO\KDGDQLQVWLWXWLRQDOIUDPHZRUNWKDWRQHPD\DUJXHKDVFRQWULEXWHGWR
YDVW VSDWLDO GLVSDULWLHV LQ WKH GHSOR\PHQW RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV LQIUDVWUXFWXUH $FFHVV FRVWV DORQJ
ZLWKDVORZDSSURYDOSURFHVVKLQGHUIUHHDFFHVVLQWRWKHPDUNHW7KHVHVDPHIRUFHVKDYHSUHYHQWHGWKH
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUN LQ (XURSH IURP HYROYLQJ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IDFWRUV WKDW DUH QHFHVVDU\
LQJUHGLHQWVIRUWKHHPHUJHQFHRISRZHUODZGLVWULEXWLRQVUHZLULQJLQFUHPHQWDOJURZWKDQGSUHIHUHQWLDO
DWWDFKPHQW
:KLOH WKHVH LQVWLWXWLRQDO DQG HFRQRPLF GLIIHUHQFHV KDYH D FOHDU HIIHFW RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI ,3
QHWZRUNVVHHQLQSUHYLRXVVWXGLHV6FKLQWOHUHWDO*RUPDQDQG.XONDUQLWKH\GRQRWVHHP
WRLQIOXHQFHWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIILEHUFDEOHOLQNVZKLFKZHREVHUYHGLQ6HFWLRQV±7KHUHDVRQIRU
WKHXQLIRUPUHVXOWVIRXQGLQWKLVSDSHUPLJKWOLHLQWKHSODQDUQDWXUHRIILEHUFRQQHFWLRQQHWZRUNV7KH
GHSOR\PHQWRIVXFKQHWZRUNV UHTXLUHVODUJH IL[HGFRVWVZKLFKDUH DQREVWDFOHWRWKHGHYHORSPHQW RI
FRPSHWLWLRQDVIDVWDQGG\QDPLFDVWKHRQHREVHUYHGIRU,3QHWZRUNV
&RQFOXVLRQV
7KH DQDO\VLV HYRNHV VRPH LQWHUHVWLQJ TXHVWLRQV WKDW PLJKW EH WKH IRFXV RI IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQV $
PRUHULJRURXVDQDO\VLVRIVRPHRIWKHIDFWRUVWKDWKDYHOHGWRGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKH86DQG(XURSH
LQWHUPVRIWKHLUWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVLVUHFRPPHQGHG,QSDUWLFXODUIXUWKHUVWXG\LVQHHGHGWR
H[SORUHKRZFXOWXUDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOIDFWRUVKLQGHUWKHSURFHVVHVQHFHVVDU\IRU
WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHWZRUN WKDW KDV SRZHU ODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ SURSHUWLHV 7KLV FRXOG HLWKHU EH GRQH
PDWKHPDWLFDOO\ XVLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO PRGHOV RU VLPXODWLRQ RU WKURXJK FDVH VWXGLHV SHUKDSV H[DPLQLQJ
VRPH RI WKH QDWLRQV LQ (XURSH WKDW UHSUHVHQW RXWOLHUV LQ WKH DQDO\VLV ,W PD\ DOVR EH LQWHUHVWLQJ WR
H[SORUHKRZWKHFOXVWHUVLGHQWLILHGLQWKLVSDSHUKDYHHYROYHGRYHUWLPHDVWKHPDUNHWH[SDQGHGLQWKH
86 DQG (XURSH DQG WR XWLOL]H DOWHUQDWLYH FOXVWHULQJ PHWKRGV WR YHULI\ WKH FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKH UHVXOWV
SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHU
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KH DXWKRUV ZLVK WR WKDQN 6DQGUD 9LQFLJXHUUD 8QLYHUVLW\ RI %RORJQD ,WDO\ IRU WKH FOXVWHU DQDO\VLV
HODERUDWLRQ
5HIHUHQFHV
$OEHUW5DQG$/%DUDEDVL7RSRORJ\RI(YROYLQJ1HWZRUNV3K\VLFDO5HYLHZ/HWWHUV SS
$OEHUW5DQG$/%DUDEDVL6WDWLVWLFDO0HFKDQLFVRI&RPSOH[1HWZRUNV5HYLHZRI0RGHUQ
3K\VLFV SS
$OOHQ''\QDPLF,QGXVWU\6WUXFWXUHDV3ROLF\"7KUHH$OOLDQFHVDQG:RUOG
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV,Q7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ1HZ'\QDPLFVDQG'ULYLQJ)RUFHV$%LDQFKL
DQG*5LFKHUL(GV$PVWHUGDP,263UHVV
$PDUDO/$1$6FDOD0%DUWKpOpP\DQG+(6WDQOH\&ODVVHVRI6PDOO:RUOG1HWZRUNV
3URF1DW$FDG6FL86$ SS
$QGHUEHUJ05&OXVWHU$QDO\VLVIRU$SSOLFDWLRQV1HZ<RUN$FDGHPLF3UHVV
%DOEL$%DQGDODUJDqERRPLQ,WDOLDHLQ(XURSDZZZUHSXEEOLFDLW
KWWSZZZUHSXEEOLFDLWFVH]LRQLVFLHQ]DBHBWHFQRORJLDEDQGDODUJDEDQGDODUJDEDQGDODUJ
DKWPO
%DOORX5+%XVLQHVV/RJLVWLFV6XSSO\&KDLQ0DQDJHPHQW3ODQQLQJ2UJDQL]LQJDQG
&RQWUROOLQJWKH6XSSO\&KDLQ8SSHU6DGGOH5LYHU1HZ-HUVH\3HDUVRQ3UHQWLFH+DOO
%DUDEDVL$/7KH3K\VLFVRIWKH:HE3K\VLFV:RUOG -XO\
%DUDEDVL$//LQNHGWKH1HZ6FLHQFHRI1HWZRUN1HZ<RUN3HUVHXV3XEOLVKLQJ
%DUDEDVL$/DQG5$OEHUW(PHUJHQFHRI6FDOLQJLQ5DQGRP1HWZRUNV6FLHQFH SS
%DUWKHOHP\0&URVVRYHUIURP6FDOH)UHHWR6SDWLDO1HWZRUNV(XURSK\VLFV/HWWHUV SS
%HUJPDQ/&'R\OH-*XDO/+XOWNUDQW]'1HYHQ/+5|OOHUDQG/:DYHUPDQ
(XURSH
V1HWZRUN,QGXVWULHV&RQIOLFWLQJ3ULRULWLHV/RQGRQ&HQWUHIRU(FRQRPLF3ROLF\
5HVHDUFK
%LWWOLQJPD\HU*DQG7:+D]OHWW7KH3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\RI&DEOH
2SHQ$FFHVV
$(,
%URRNLQJV-RLQW&HQWHUIRU5HJXODWRU\6WXGLHV:RUNLQJ3DSHU
%RZHQ-1HWZRUN&KDQJH'HUHJXODWLRQDQG$FFHVVLQWKH*OREDO$LUOLQH,QGXVWU\
(FRQRPLF*HRJUDSK\ SS
&DYH0DQG5:&UDQGDOO(GV7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV/LEHUDOL]DWLRQRQ7ZR6LGHVRIWKH
$WODQWLF:DVKLQJWRQ'&$(,%URRNLQJV-RLQW&HQWHUIRU5HJXODWRU\6WXGLHV
&KHQ4&+\XQVHRN5*RYLQGDQ-6XJLK66FKHQNHUDQG::LOOLQJHU7KH2ULJLQRI
3RZHU/DZVLQ,QWHUQHW7RSRORJLHV5HYLVLWHG,(((,QIRFRP
&UDQGDOO5:$UH7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV)DFLOLWLHV,QIUDVWUXFWXUH",I7KH\$UH6R:KDW"
5HJLRQDO6FLHQFHDQG8UEDQ(FRQRPLFV (FRQRPLVW8QIL[LQJ)L[HG:LUHOHVV
KWWSZZZHFRQRPLVWFRPVFLHQFHWTGLVSOD\6WRU\FIP"VWRU\BLG (O+DPGRXFKL$DQG3:LOOHWW+LHUDUFKLFGRFXPHQWFODVVLILFDWLRQXVLQJ:DUG
VFOXVWHULQJ
PHWKRG3URFHHGLQJVRI7KHWK$QQXDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO$&06,*,5&RQIHUHQFHRQ5HVHDUFKDQG
'HYHORSPHQWLQ,QIRUPDWLRQ5HWULHYDO3LVD,WDO\$&03UHVV1HZ<RUN86$
(UGRV3DQG$5HQ\L2QWKH(YROXWLRQRI5DQGRP*UDSKV3XEOLFDWLRQRIWKH0DWKHPDWLFDO
,QVWLWXWHRIWKH+XQJDULDQ$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFH
*DUULVRQ:&RQQHFWLYLW\RIWKH,QWHUVWDWH+LJKZD\6\VWHP,Q6SDWLDODQDO\VLVDUHDGHULQ
VWDWLVWLFDOJHRJUDSK\%-/%HUU\DQG')0DUEOH(GV(QJOHZRRG&OLIIV1-3UHQWLFH
+DOOSS
*DVSHU-DQG(/*ODHVHU ,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\DQGWKH)XWXUHRI&LWLHV-RXUQDORI8UEDQ
(FRQRPLFV SS
*LOOHVSLH$DQG.5RELQV*HRJUDSKLFDO,QHTXDOLWLHV7KH6SDWLDO%LDVRIWKH1HZ
&RPPXQLFDWLRQV7HFKQRORJLHV-RXUQDORI&RPPXQLFDWLRQ *RUPDQ637KH1HWZRUN$GYDQWDJHRI5HJLRQV7KH&DVHRIWKH86$(XURSHDQG&KLQD
6FKRRORI3XEOLF3ROLF\*HRUJH0DVRQ8QLYHUVLW\)DLUID[9$
*RUPDQ63DQG5.XONDUQL7KH1HWZRUNVRIWKH,QWHUQHW7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV3ROLF\ SS
*RUPDQ63DQG5.XONDUQL6SDWLDO6PDOO:RUOGV(QYLURQPHQW3ODQQLQJ% SS
+DJJHWW3DQG5-&KRUOH\1HWZRUNDQDO\VLVLQJHRJUDSK\1HZ<RUN6W0DUWLQ
V
+DWLJDQ-$&OXVWHULQJ$OJRULWKPV1HZ<RUN-RKQ:LOH\DQG6RQV
+HSZRUWK0*HRJUDSK\RIWKH,QIRUPDWLRQ(FRQRP\1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
,1$0DUNHW2YHUYLHZ6RXWKHDVW(XURSH,&7:HHNO\8SGDWH-DQXDU\7KHVVDORQLNL
.DODNRWD53*XQGHSXGLDQG-:DUHKDP7KH(FRQRPLFVRI'6/5HJXODWLRQ&RPSXWHU .DQVN\.6WUXFWXUHRI7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ1HWZRUNV5HODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ1HWZRUN*HRPHWU\
DQG5HJLRQDO&KDUDFWHULVWLFV8QLYHUVLW\RI&KLFDJR'HSDUWPHQWRI*HRJUDSK\5HVHDUFK
SDSHUV
0DOHFNL(-7KH(FRQRPLF*HRJUDSK\RIWKH,QWHUQHW
V,QIUDVWUXFWXUH(FRQRPLF*HRJUDSK\
SS
0DOHFNL(-DQG63*RUPDQ0D\EHWKH'HDWKRI'LVWDQFHEXWQRWWKH(QGRI*HRJUDSK\,Q
7KH:RUOGVRI(OHFWURQLF&RPPHUFH6'%UXQQDQG75/HLQEDFK(GV1HZ<RUN-RKQ
:LOH\SS
0RVV07HFKQRORJ\DQG&LWLHV&LW\VFDSH SS
0RVV0/DQG$7RZQVHQG7KH,QWHUQHW%DFNERQHDQGWKH$PHULFDQ0HWURSROLV7KH
,QIRUPDWLRQ6RFLHW\ SS
2(&',QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\2XWORRN
KWWSZZZRHFGRUJGDWDRHFGSGI
2XP7+$=KDQJDQG<=KDQJ$LUOLQH1HWZRUN5LYDOU\&DQDGLDQ-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFV
DSS
2[PDQ-7KH)&&DQGWKHXQUHJXODWLRQ RIWKH,QWHUQHW233:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R)HGHUDO
&RPPXQLFDWLRQV&RPPLVVLRQ:DVKLQJWRQ'&
3HKUVVRQ$6WUDWHJ\LQ(PHUJLQJ0DUNHWV7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV(VWDEOLVKPHQWVLQ(XURSH
/RQGRQ1HZ<RUN5RXWOHGJH
5HJJLDQL$DQG/$6FKLQWOHU(GV0HWKRGVDQG0RGHOVLQ7UDQVSRUWDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQV
&URVV$WODQWLF3HUSHFWLYHV%HUOLQ6SULQJHU9HUODJ)RUWKFRPLQJ
5LQDOGL60-33HHUHQERRPDQG7..HOOH\,GHQWLI\LQJ8QGHUVWDQGLQJDQG$QDO\]LQJ
&ULWLFDO,QIUDVWUXFWXUH,QWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV&RQWURO6\VWHPV0DJD]LQH SS
5XWKHUIRUG-$*LOOHVSLHDQG55LFKDUGVRQ7KH7HUULWRULDOLW\RISDQ(XURSHDQ
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV%DFNERQH1HWZRUNV-RXUQDORI8UEDQ7HFKQRORJ\ 6FKLOOHU''LJLWDO&DSLWDOLVP1HWZRUNLQJWKH*OREDO0DUNHW6\VWHP&DPEULGJH0$0,7
3UHVV
81'3+XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUW1HZ<RUN2[IRUG2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
9LQFLJXHUUD60RGHOOLGLUHWHVYLOXSSLPHWRGRORJLFLHGDSSOLFD]LRQLHPSLULFKHFRQ
ULIHULPHQWRDOVHWWRUHGHOOHWHOHFRPXQLFD]LRQL'HJUHH7KHVLV)DFXOW\RI6WDWLVWLFV8QLYHUVLW\
RI%RORJQDLQ,WDOLDQIRUWKFRPLQJ
:DUG-++LHUDUFKLFDO*URXSLQJWR2SWLPL]HDQ2EMHFWLYH)XQFWLRQ-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ
6WDWLVWLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ SS
:DWWV'-DQG6+6WURJDW]&ROOHFWLYH'\QDPLFVRI6PDOO:RUOG1HWZRUNV1DWXUH SS
:RMDKQ2:$LUOLQH1HWZRUN6WUXFWXUHDQGWKH*UDYLW\0RGHO7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK
3DUW(/RJLVWLFVDQG7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HYLHZ SS
$QQH[$
ƒ
FOXVWHU
ƒ
FOXVWHU
ƒ
FOXVWHU
ƒ
FOXVWHU
ƒ
FOXVWHU
7DEOH$±$VXPPDU\RIWKHGDWDVHWIRU(XURSHDQFLWLHVVKRZLQJWKHVXEGLYLVLRQLQFOXVWHUV
&OXVWHUV&LW\
&RXQWU\
1HWZRUNV&RQQHFWLRQV )LWWLQJ)XQFWLRQ
+DPEXUJ
*HUPDQ\
«
«
«
«
3RZHU/DZ
%ULVWRO
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
.RHEHQKDYQ 'HQPDUN
([SRQHQWLDO
%LOEDR
6SDLQ
/X[HPERXUJ /X[HPERXUJ
«
«
«
«
([SRQHQWLDO
%DVLQJVWRNH 8QLWHG.LQJGRP
+HUQLQJ
'HQPDUN
«
«
«
«
([SRQHQWLDO
5HJHQVEXUJ *HUPDQ\
)UHGHULNVKDYQ 'HQPDUN
«
«
«
«
([SRQHQWLDO
1DSROL
,WDO\
7DEOH$±7RS(XURSHDQFLWLHVLQHVWLPDWHGWRWDOEDQGZLGWKRI,QWHUQHWEDFNERQHOLQNV
(VWLPDWHG7RWDO
&LW\
%DQGZLGWK*ESV
/RQGRQ
3DULV
)UDQNIXUW
'XVVHOGRUI
+DPEXUJ
$PVWHUGDP
=XULFK
%HUOLQ
0XQLFK
/\RQ
6WUDVERXUJ
%UXVVHOV
0DGULG
&RSHQKDJHQ
0DUVHLOOH
6WXWWJDUW
&RORJQH
+DQQRYHU
0LODQ
6WRFNKROP
/HLS]LJ
*HQHYD
6RXUFH5XWKHUIRUGHWDO7DEOH
)LJXUH$±7KHPDSRIWKHFLWLHVEHORQJLQJWKHILUVWFOXVWHUVHH7DEOH$
6RXUFH9LQFLJXHUUD