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Chinese Military Installations in the South China Sea
April 3, 3017 For now, these installations are primarily for defensive purposes.
Originally produced on March 27, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC
By George Friedman, Xander Snyder and Cheyenne Ligon
Much has been made in the mainstream media over China’s ongoing military buildup on reefs in
the South China Sea. Chinese action has thus far been largely contained to two island groups:
the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands.
Though China has indeed been building extensively on these island groups—constructing
harbors, runways, helipads, and radar facilities, and installing missile defense systems—these
facilities are defensive in nature. They are meant to extend China’s reach further past its
coastline.
Not all islands are developed to the same degree, and different island chains serve different
strategic purposes. Additional attention has been given to Scarborough Shoal, which while not
currently developed, has become a point of tension between the Philippines and China.
9-Dash Line
China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea (which form the basis for the ongoing territorial
conflict between China and its neighbors) are based on the Chinese nine-dash line. Beijing uses
the nine-dash line to claim sovereignty over approximately 90% of the contested waters in the
South China Sea… territory extending as far as 1,243 miles away from the Chinese mainland.
China argues that the nine-dash line represents historical maritime agreements, but all involved
(except China) have disputed this. When probed, China has been evasive about the actual
details of purported agreements.
Spratly Islands
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(click to enlarge)
China has reclaimed extensive territory in the Spratly Islands. A 2016 report from the Pentagon
estimates that China had built approximately 3,200 acres of artificial reefs in the island chain by
the end of 2015, when it pledged to stop adding additional territory. This number dwarfs the
mere 50 acres built by all other countries involved in the dispute during the same period.
Though the Spratly Islands contain many reefs, China’s interests are concentrated on seven. The
three large reefs—Mischief, Subi, and Fiery Cross—are similar in that they all have large antiaircraft guns and close-in weapons systems. Each features helipads, long runways, and hangars
capable of holding up to 24 fighter jets and several larger planes, including the largest in the
Chinese fleet.
Fiery Cross Reef is confirmed to have a harbor at which China’s largest naval vessels can dock. It
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has also been reported that construction of similar harbors is ongoing at Mischief and Subi reefs.
Fiery Cross, on which 200 troops are garrisoned, features recreational facilities and permanent
outpost structures. Each of the three large reefs also contains four unidentified hexagonal
structures, which are oriented toward the sea, and whose purpose remains unknown.
The four smaller reefs—Gaven, Hughes, Johnson, and Cuarteron—each contain structures
thought to be radar towers and helipads (according to Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, a
program by the Center for International and Strategic Studies focused on tracking development
in the South China Sea). Additional structures, such as lighthouses, bunkers, or small supply
platforms, are featured on some of these reefs but are not common to all.
Paracel Islands
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The Paracel Islands provide the Chinese with a defensive outpost approximately 200 miles
southeast of the southern tip of Hainan Island, where China maintains a nuclear submarine base.
Eight of the islands currently have some form of Chinese presence, with six containing at least
radar capabilities.
Woody Island, located in the northeast of the island chain, has perhaps the largest presence of
Chinese military in the South China Sea. In addition to 1,400 military personnel, it also has an
airstrip that can support J-11 and Xian JH-7 fighter jets, up to 20 aircraft hangars, helipads, radar
facilities, and a battery of HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) with a range of 124 miles. Despite
claims in mid-2016 that these missiles were removed, recent satellite photography indicates
they are still there.
Woody Island has been designated the official administrative capital of the region containing the
island chains that China claims as its territory (Paracel, Spratly, and the area encompassing
Scarborough Shoal).
In late 2016, the Chinese government attempted to further normalize its presence on Woody
Island with daily chartered civilian flights to the island. Putting civilians on the island bolsters
China’s sovereignty claim. It also increases the risk of civilian injuries in the event of an attack
and, therefore, has a deterrent effect.
The other islands in the Paracels that the Chinese have occupied do not have runways, and
therefore should be seen as support positions for Woody Island. While some land reclamation
has begun on North and Middle islands in the East Paracels, only Tree Island, which sits just to
the northeast of Woody Island, currently has any military installations. These include radar
capabilities and more unidentified buried hexagonal structures. In the West Paracels, Money
Island, Triton Island, Pattle Island, and Duncan Island have a combination of helicopter pads and
radar.
Scarborough Shoal
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While it currently has no military installations, Scarborough Shoal has been a point of tension in
Philippine-Chinese relations. Looking at the above map, you can see why: Scarborough Shoal is
located off the Philippines’s west coast, only 220 miles from Manila. Throughout Philippine
President Rodrigo Duterte’s ongoing pivot between the US and China, Scarborough Shoal has
remained the line Duterte has maintained that China must not cross.
Scarborough Shoal was in the headlines earlier this month as Xiao Jie (the Chinese mayor who
administers the South China Sea islands) announced plans to install “environmental monitoring
stations” there. This set off a chain of reactions in the Philippines as people demanded Duterte
respond to what they considered Chinese aggression. Duterte stated, “What do you want me to
do? Declare war against China? I can’t. We will lose all our military and policemen tomorrow and
we [will be] a destroyed nation.”
The next day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied that China had intentions of building
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anything—including an environmental facility—on Scarborough Shoal, and a correction was
issued to remove Xiao’s comments regarding Scarborough Shoal construction from the Hanan
Daily, a state-backed newspaper. Duterte responded to China’s revised position by claiming that
he doesn’t believe China would build on the shoal “out of respect for our friendship.”
Conclusion
Diplomatic spats between China and the other claimants in the South China Sea are, for now,
just that—spats. China is building up military capabilities on the contested reefs, but the
installations are primarily for defensive purposes.
The SAMs China installed on the reefs are mainly air area denial tools with a limited range of 124
miles, meant to shoot down incoming enemy planes. China’s planes spotted at these South
China Sea installations have also been largely defensive (such as the J-11 fighter jet, which is
used to maintain air superiority over the islands). The position of the reefs is also defensive: The
location of the Paracel Islands gives China the ability to block Taiwanese or Philippine access to
its Hainan submarine base.
However, it is possible that Chinese involvement on these reefs could progress from a defensive
nature to a more offensive one. The occasional presence of Xian JH-7 fighter bombers and the
construction of large harbors that can accommodate the largest ships in the People’s Liberation
Army Navy’s fleet indicate China’s interest in demonstrating that it could, if provoked, carry out
future attacks from these islands.
Additionally, if Scarborough Shoal becomes another base of Chinese operations, it sits close
enough to the Philippines to pose an offensive threat, regardless of whether China considers it a
defensive position. For now, like all Chinese moves in the South China Sea, it is just a bluff
meant to make China look bigger and scarier than it actually is.
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