R201E/161223
How to pick horses with the best chance to win?
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Copyright © The Hong Kong Jockey Club. All rights reserved.
Three key steps to picking the right horses
2
Horse Assessment Table
1st Step:
Basic View
Horse
Form
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
3rd Step:
Final View
Condition
Pace and
Trend
1
2
3
4
5
•
Mark ‘+’ when the horse has an edge in a particular area; mark ‘-’ when the horse has a
disadvantage
•
After adding up the ‘+’s and ‘-’s, the horse which has the most net ‘+’s under Final View has
the best chance of winning
3
1st Step: Basic view – Study Form
4
1A Assess recent starts
and trends by reviewing
recent form
•
•
From the last six starts (left to right), we
can find out whether a horse:
◦
Recently won or finished in
Top-3 position
◦
Shows any trends from their recent
starts (improving or declining form)
If a horse did not finish in a Top-3 position
recently, or its trend is getting worse, its
chance of winning is lower
5
1A Assess recent starts and trends by reviewing
recent form
•
Analyse the horses’ winning chances in more detail from recent starts, and look for trends
•
Recent starts should be given higher reference values
Very good
Good
Has won once or
more
Results are
improving in the
last 3-4 races /
Has finished in a
Top-3 position
Average
Mostly finished
between 4th
and 6th
Bad
Mostly finished
in 7th position or
lower / Results
are declining
in the last 3-4
races
Very bad
Mostly finished
in 10th position
or lower
++
•
--
For horse debuts in Hong Kong you should refer to overseas records, or look at a horse’s
dam / sire records in Hong Kong
6
1A Fill in your ratings for Form
1st Step:
Basic View
Horse
Form
1
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13
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14
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2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
7
Just studying form is by far not enough, we must also
look at other important factors
•
If your analysis focuses only on form and overlooks other variables, the result is
likely to be biased. For example:
◦
Even though a horse has won, or finished in a top-3 position, in its recent races,
it might not be able to overcome the challenge of a heavier weight or a rise in
class
◦
If a horse has not finished in a top-3 position in recent races, it might have been
running over a non-favourite track and distance or started from an unfavourable
draw. Conversely if it runs over its favourite track and distance or starts from a
good draw in its next race, it may get a positive result
8
2nd Step: Further refine the horses’ winning chances by
assessing other key factors
9
Impact of Track and Distance
10
2A Running over the best
distance is a big plus
•
Each horse’s explosive force, stamina
and strength are different; therefore most
horses have their own best distance
◦
A horse which performs well over
1400-1600M may not have the
explosive force required for a 1000M
sprint race
◦
A horse which performs well over
1400-1600M may not have the
stamina required for a 2000M longdistance race
11
2A Example: JOLLY JOLLY
•
Find the horse’s best distance by analysing its
last six starts
•
JOLLY JOLLY always finished in a Top-2
position when it ran over 1200-1400M
•
However, it could not finish in a Top-3 position
when it ran over 1600M
•
This means that JOLLY JOLLY favours 12001400M, but might not like other distances
•
Recent ranking should not be the only focus
when studying a horse’s form. Attention should
also be paid to whether the horse is running
over its best distance too
12
2A Even for the same distance, our 3 different tracks have
big impact to a horse’s performance
Sha Tin Turf
Sha Tin Dirt (All-Weather Track)
Happy Valley
Sha Tin Racecourse
Turf Track
Sha Tin Racecourse
All-Weather Track
Happy Valley Racecourse
Turf Track
Surface
Grass
Sand, clay and organic elements
Grass
Nature
Flat
Kickback may hit horses at the
rear in the field
Up-and-down
Turns
Relatively moderate turns
Relatively moderate turns
Tighter turns
Length of Home
Straight
430M
365M
312 – 338M
13
2A Performance should be
compared over the same
track and distance
•
•
Same track and distance consists of
three elements:
◦
Same racecourse (Sha Tin / Happy
Valley)
◦
Same track (turf / dirt)
◦
Same distance
A horse that performs well over ST 1200M
may not be as good over HV 1200M
because the two tracks have different
characteristics
Distance Runs in Racing Touch shows horses’ same track
and distance records
14
2A Example: EXPEDITE
•
EXPEDITE won twice over ST Dirt 1650M
which proves that it is good on a dirt track;
however, EXPEDITE could not finish in a Top-3
position over HV 1650M
•
Even over the same distance, the horse’s
performance on different tracks can be
very different
•
So we should pay more attention to EXPEDITE
when it runs in an ST Dirt 1650M race
15
2A Example: PHOTON WILLIE
•
If there are no track and distance records for
comparison, you can consider the horse’s
running style
•
PHOTON WILLIE likes to drop back to the rear,
and then come from behind strongly in the
home straight. It can be classified as a
“late-finisher”
•
PHOTON WILLIE won twice at Happy Valley
over 1650M with its come-from-behind running
style; it should therefore be able to perform over
a longer distance such as HV 1800M
•
On the other hand, it may not be suited to a
shorter distance such as HV 1200M because
the horse may be too far back in the field before
the home straight
16
Hard
Normal
Yielding
•
The condition of a turf track is described by the
moisture level of the track surface
Good To Yielding
•
Good
be considered
Turf
Good To Firm
2A Track Condition should also
Soft
Track condition is mostly affected by weather
◦
Turf: track condition is likely to be Good To
Firm during dry weather or on sunny days; on
the other hand, the track condition may
change to Good To Yielding or even Yielding
after rain
◦
Dirt: track condition may be at one of two
extremes after rain; Wet Fast which indicates
a solid surface, and Wet Slow which
indicates a soft surface
17
2A Track Condition should also
be considered
•
Each horse has its own strengths and
characteristics, and may perform particularly well
over a specific track condition
◦
FRIENDS FOREVER: on Good To Yielding, it
won over ST 1400M. However, on Good /
Good To Firm it performed less well over the
same distance. Therefore, Good To Yielding
may be FRIENDS FOREVER’s favourite track
condition
◦
FLYING MOOCHI: on Good / Good To Firm, it
finished in a Top-2 position for four consecutive
races over ST 1200M. However, on Good To
Yielding, it could only finish 6th over the same
distance. Therefore Good To Yielding may be
FLYING MOOCHI’s unfavoured track condition
18
2A Summary: Impact of Track and Distance
Factors to be considered
+
-
Is the horse running over its favourite distance?
Yes
No
Has the horse finished in the Top-3 over the same track
and distance?
Yes
No
Suited
Not suited
Yes
No
If the horse did not run over the same track and distance,
estimate from its running style whether it is suited to the
track and distance of this race
Is the horse running on its favourite track condition?
19
2A Fill in your ratings for Track and Distance
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
1
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2
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3
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4
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5
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6
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7
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13
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14
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Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
20
Impact of Jockey and Trainer
21
2B Jockey’s competence affects the
race results
•
A jockey’s competence can be reflected in their ranking,
Win% and Top-3%. The best jockeys can raise a horse’s
winning chances
◦
J Moreira and Z Purton are top jockeys. Both have
outstanding figures for Win% and Top-3%
◦
The best jockeys can recover quickly from difficulties
such as a wide draw, a knock, or being blocked during a
race
◦
J Moreira and Z Purton are good jockeys who can
handle horses starting from an unfavourably wide draw
22
2B So do not forget to
check whether there has
been a change of jockey
•
If there is a change to a better jockey, this
will improve the horse’s winning chances
•
But if there is a change to a weaker jockey,
this will lower the horse’s winning chances
•
It’s particularly noteworthy when there is a
change from a lower-ranked jockey to a
top-class jockey like
J Moreira or Z Purton
23
2B You can also consider trainers’ performances over
various tracks
•
Refer to the trainers’ rankings over the last three seasons over each track
•
Some trainers may perform well over their favourite tracks because they are good at
arranging appropriate horses for particular track type
Sha Tin Turf
Sha Tin Turf
Happy Valley
2015 / 16
2nd
1st
2nd
2014 / 15
1st
2nd
1st
2013 / 14
1st
2nd
1st
24
2B Do not overlook trainers who are ranked lower overall
•
Some trainers may have a lower overall ranking, but have good performance over their
favourite tracks
Trainer last season performance
Overall Ranking
6th
10th
Happy Valley
3rd
4th
Sha Tin Dirt
2nd
4th
25
2B Summary: Impact of Jockey and Trainer
Factors to be considered
Is the horse ridden by a leading jockey in this race?
Has there been a change to a better/weaker jockey for
this race?
Does this race start on the trainer’s favourite track?
+
-
Yes
No
Better jockey
Weaker jockey
Yes
No
26
2B Fill in your ratings for Jockey and Trainer
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
1
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2
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3
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12
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13
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14
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Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
27
Impact of Draw
28
2C The draw is another key factor in racing
•
In general, horses starting with an inside draw have a competitive advantage. But a better
approach is to study the draw by analysing it alongside a horse’s favourite track and
distance, and its running style
29
2C Study the Win % and
Top-3% of each draw over
each track and distance
•
Inside draws for ST Turf 2000M, ST Dirt
1650M and HV 1200M have a particularly
high Win %
•
This is because there is a tight turn shortly
after the start and it requires the horses with
wide draws to run a longer distance to get
closer to the rail
30
2C Exception: ST Turf 1000M Straight
•
Horses that start from an outside draw have a competitive advantage because there is
less damage on the track close to the Grandstand
31
2C Impact of running style
•
A horse’s running style can be studied in
Racing Touch
32
2C Learn the difference between front-runners and
late-finishers from their Running Positions
Front-runner
Late-finisher
Running Position
(Separate the race into four
sections)
1 -1 - 1 -1
(the three numbers from the left-hand-side
are smaller)
11 -12- 12- 1
(the three numbers from left-hand-side
are bigger)
Feature
A horse with good speed, which likes to run
in front of the field before the home straight
A horse with good stamina, which is better
off restrained behind the horses in front
33
2C Starting with an inside
draw has an advantage
especially for frontrunners
•
A front-runner starting with an inside
draw will find it easier to lead in
a race; this helps it to win
•
However, if it starts with a wide draw,
higher speed and more energy are
required to get to the inside rail in order
to lead. If the horse cannot get to the
inside rail, it has less chance of winning
34
2C A late-finisher may
have an advantage if
it starts with a middle
draw rather than an
inside draw
•
Be aware that a late-finisher which starts
from a wide draw can easily get to the
inside rail and be restrained at the back of
the field
•
It’s even better if a late-finisher starts from
a middle draw (draw 5-10) because it will
be less likely to be blocked and will more
easily find space to accelerate in the
home straight
35
2C Watch closely when a horse changes from
draw 14 to draw 1
•
Any change of draw from the last start is very likely to affect a horse’s winning chances:
From wide draw to inside draw
From inside draw to wide draw
Example
From draw 14 to draw 1
From draw 1 to draw 14
Influence
Advantage – a shorter distance
at turns
Disadvantage – a longer distance
at turns
36
2C Summary: Impact of Draw
Factors to be considered
Is the horse starting from a draw with a higher Win % and
Top-3%?
+
-
Yes
No
Yes
No
Inside draw
Wide draw
Does the horse’s running style and draw create a good synergy
effect? For example:
•
A front-runner starts from an inside draw
•
A late-finisher starts from a middle draw
How has the horse been drawn compared to its last start?
(Except ST 1000M Straight)
37
2C Fill in your ratings for Draw
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
1
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-
2
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+
3
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+
4
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5
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6
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+
7
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8
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+
9
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+
10
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11
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+
12
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+
13
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14
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+
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
38
Impact of Class and Weight
39
2D Why does a horse carry a light weight?
40
2D Analyse weight carried and winning chance
Weight
Light
Weight
Horse
•
Reason
Weight reduced after a loss in the
same class
Weight reduced after a win and is
promoted in class
Last start result
Top-3 Chance
Finished in a Top-6 position
Higher chance
Did not finish in a Top-6
position
Lower chance
Won by 1 length or above
Higher chance
Won by less than 1 length
Lower chance
For lighter horses (body weight 1000 lbs or below), it is harder to carry a heavy weight. So it
is beneficial when lighter horses are promoted to the next class and carry less weight
41
2D Why does a horse carry a heavy weight?
42
2D Analyse weight carried and winning chance
Weight
Heavy
Weight
Horse
Reason
Last start result
Top-3 Chance
Weight increased after winning a
race in the same class
Won by 1 length or above
Higher chance
Won by less than 1 length
Lower chance
Finished in a Top-6 position
Higher chance
Did not finish in a Top-6
position
Lower chance
Weight increased after losing in a
race and after a drop in class
43
2D Example:
ROMANTIC TOUCH
•
ROMANTIC TOUCH did not win in its
last six starts, and its performance was
average if only judged by its finish
positions
•
However, ROMANTIC TOUCH finished
3rd in a Hong Kong Group I race and
was closely defeated by less than 1
length by star runner LUGER
•
This reflects that ROMANTIC TOUCH
has an advantage against other Class 1
horses even if it needs to carry a heavy
weight; but other factors may affect its
winning chances
44
2D Summary: Impact of Class and Weight
Factors to be considered
+
-
Did a horse which has been promoted / dropped in class perform well in its last
start? For example:
• Won by 1 length or above and with a weight reduction after a class promotion
• Weight was added after losing in a race and a drop in class, and finished in a
Top-6 position
Yes
No
Did a horse which remains in class perform well in its last start? For example:
• Won by 1 length or above with weight added
• Weight reduced after a loss in the same class, and finished in a Top-6 position
in its last start
Yes
No
45
2D Fill in your ratings for Class and Weight
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
1
＋
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-
+
2
－－
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+
-
3
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+
-
4
＋＋
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-
+
5
－－
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-
-
6
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+
-
7
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-
-
8
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+
+
9
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+
+
10
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-
-
11
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+
+
12
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+
+
13
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-
+
14
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+
-
Condition
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
46
Impact of Condition
47
2E A horse’s weight can
reflect its condition
•
Compare a horse’s current weight to when
it had a Top-3 finish; the difference should
be less than 20 lbs
•
If a horse’s weight has risen or dropped by
20 lbs or more, it reflects that its condition
might also have changed
◦
Too much rest → weight increased
◦
Too much exercise → weight dropped
48
2E Do not miss the horse parade
Good
Body: Firm flat stomach, well-toned muscles with
solid lines, and strong neck
Manner/Look: Calm, relaxed with eager eyes
Gesture: Sprinter – active and excited;
Long-distance – calm
49
2E Also, pay attention to horses’
gestures which show bad
condition
Bad
Edgy with heavy sweating
Bucking frequently which may waste energy
50
2E It is important to watch a barrier trial performance
Positive symptoms:
•
The horse finished the barrier trial after a relaxed run without pressured
•
The horse continues to accelerate after the finishing line, showing that it has a strong desire to win
•
The horse finishes close to other higher-rated horses, reflecting that it is in top form
•
The finishing time is much faster than another barrier trial over the same distance on the same day,
reflecting that the horse has set a high standard
51
2E Summary: Impact of Condition
Factors to be considered
+
Compare a horse’s current weight to its
weight when it finished in the Top-3/weight
Maintained its weight
of last start (rise/drop)
Horse’s condition in parade
Did the horse perform well in its last
barrier trial?
•
Well-toned muscles
•
Eager eyes
•
Calm and relaxed
Yes
Risen/dropped by more
than 20lbs
•
Edgy, heavy
sweating
•
Bucking frequently
No
52
2E Fill in your ratings for Condition
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
1
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+
-
2
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+
-
-
3
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+
-
+
4
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-
+
+
5
－－
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-
-
-
6
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+
-
+
7
－
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-
-
+
8
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+
+
-
9
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+
+
-
10
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-
-
-
11
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+
+
+
12
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+
+
+
13
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-
+
+
14
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+
-
-
Pace and
Trend
3rd Step:
Final View
53
Impact of Pace and Trend
54
2F Estimate pace of a race
with a Speed Map
•
The pace of each race has significant
impact on the race result. You can refer
to the Speed Map to learn about the
estimated pace of an upcoming race
and find out which horses might have
an advantage
55
2F Watch out for the latefinishers in a fast
pace race
•
Fast pace: Imagine there is a 10km run. Some
athletes run at 100M speed when they start
which makes them burn out and do not have
enough energy to last until the end; but
athletes who save their energy and run at the
rear can then win easily. This is the same
logic as a fast pace race in horse racing
•
Fast pace benefits late-finishers
◦
In a fast pace race, front-runners run too
fast in the early stages and burn
themselves out before the home straight.
They are then likely to be overtaken by
the late-finishers who still have energy
56
2F Watch out for front-runners
in a slow pace race
•
Slow pace: Imagine the 10km run again. If most of
the athletes run in a relaxed way and fairly slowly
after the start, and Athlete A in the front has been
ahead for some distance. When approaching the
end, the leading Athlete A still has energy for
sprinting because of the slow pace, and so other
athletes find it hard to catch up from behind. This is
the same logic as a slow pace race in horse racing
•
Slow pace benefits front-runners
◦ In a slow pace race, front-runners can
maintain their leading positions easily
throughout the race and at the same time
save their energy for a late burst. However,
late-finishers have to run even faster than
the front-runners if they want to catch up
from the rear
57
2F Other factors become
crucial if it is a normal
pace race
•
Normal pace: equal chance for all horses
◦
In a Normal pace, neither front-runners
nor late-finishers have significant
advantages or disadvantages
◦
Their winning chances will be decided
by other factors
58
2F Summary: Impact of Pace and Trend
Find out the estimated pace from the Speed Map:
+
-
Fast pace (except in a sprint race)
Late-finisher
Front-runner
Slow pace
Front-runner
Late-finisher
59
2F Fill in your ratings for Pace and Trend
1st Step:
Basic View
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
1
＋
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-
+
-
+
2
－－
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－
+
-
-
-
3
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+
-
+
+
4
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-
+
+
+
5
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-
-
-
-
6
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+
-
+
-
7
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-
-
+
-
8
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+
+
-
+
9
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+
+
-
-
10
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-
-
-
-
11
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+
+
+
+
12
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+
+
+
+
13
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-
+
+
-
14
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+
-
-
-
3rd Step:
Final View
60
Recap the three key steps in picking the right horses
61
Finalise your Horse Assessment Table
1st Step:
Basic View
•
2nd Step:
Special Adjustment
3rd Step:
Final View
Horse
Form
Track and
Distance
Jockey and
Trainer
Draw
Class and
Weight
Condition
Pace and
Trend
1
＋
＋
＋
-
+
-
+
＋＋＋
2
－－
－
－
+
-
-
-
－－－－－－
3
＋
－
－
+
-
+
+
+
4
＋＋
＋
＋
-
+
+
+
＋＋＋＋＋＋
5
－－
－
－
-
-
-
-
－－－－－－－－
6
＋
＋
＋
+
-
+
-
＋＋＋
7
－
－
－
-
-
+
-
－－－－－
8
＋
＋
＋
+
+
-
+
＋＋＋＋＋
9
－－
－
＋
+
+
-
-
－－
10
－
＋
－
-
-
-
-
－－－－－
11
＋＋
＋
＋
+
+
+
+
＋＋＋＋＋＋＋＋
12
＋
＋
－
+
+
+
+
＋＋＋＋＋
13
＋
－
－
-
+
+
-
－
14
＋＋
＋
＋
+
-
-
-
＋＋
Form a betting strategy for the four horses with the most net ‘+’ marks in the Final View, i.e. No. 4, No. 8,
No. 11 and No. 12 in the example
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