STRICTLY BUSINESS
JUNE 2012
Economic Growth
Residential Real Estate Sales
Annual Average Growth
4%
20%
90
3%
10%
2%
1%
0%
60
-10%
0%
-20%
-1%
30
-2%
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Rotorua
Oct-11
-30%
Apr-12
-40%
0
May-10
New Zealand
Source: APR Consultants
Nov-10
May-11
Dwelling sales
The APR index of economic growth is constructed from
key indicators. The Annual average growth rate in
Rotorua’s index was 1.7% for the year ended April 2012.
This was slower than the 1.9% annual average growth
rate in New Zealand’s index during the same period.
KEY INDICATOR TRENDS
-50%
May-12
Nov-11
Annual average % change
Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
There were 67 houses with a median sale price of around
$229,000 sold in Rotorua during May 2012. This was
the lowest level recorded during the past four months and
less than the 70 houses sold in May 2011. The annual
average growth rate in the number of houses sold in
Rotorua was 5.5% for the year ended May 2012.
This section of “Strictly Business” examines trends in key
indicators of Rotorua’s economic activity.
Retail Sales
500
6%
Building Consents
4%
400
60%
25
50%
40%
20
30%
20%
15
2%
300
0%
-2%
200
-4%
100
-6%
10%
0%
10
-10%
5
0
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Number of New dwellings
Retail Sales ($m)
Annual avg. % Change
Annual average % change
The value of Bay of Plenty’s retail sales increased from
$329.9 million in February to $372.6 million in March
2012. This was greater than the $358.0 million of sales
recorded in March 2011. The annual average growth
rate in the nominal value of Bay of Plenty’s retail sales
was 6.6% for the year ended March 2012. (Updated data
will be available in mid-August 2012).
Visitor Arrivals
140000
8%
120000
6%
4%
100000
250
200
150
100
80000
0%
30%
60000
-2%
20%
40000
10%
20000
-10%
-20%
50
2%
40%
0%
-30%
Car registrations
-8%
Mar-12
-40%
May-12
Nov-11
Nov-11
Sep-11
Source: Statistics New Zealand and APR analysis
Car Registrations
May-11
Mar-11
-30%
There were four new building consents issued for
residential dwellings in Rotorua during May 2012. This
was less than the five consents issued in April 2012 and
less than the 12 consents issued in May 2011. The
annual average growth rate in the number of new
building consents issued for residential dwellings in
Rotorua was negative was 34.9% for the year ended May
2012.
Nov-10
Sep-10
-20%
Source: Statistics New Zealand
0
May-10
0
Mar-10
0
Apr-10
-4%
-6%
-8%
Oct-10
Apr-11
Arrivals
Oct-11
-10%
Apr-12
Annual average % change
Source: Statistics New Zealand
-40%
May-12
Annual average % change
Source: New Zealand Transport Agency
There were 211 cars (including both new and exoverseas car types) registered in local postal offices
during May 2012. This was much greater than the 108
cars registered in April 2012 and the 99 cars registered in
May 2011. The annual average growth rate in the
number of cars registered in Rotorua was negative was
negative 6.5% for the year ended May 2012.
There were 95,466 visitor arrivals to Rotorua’s
commercial accommodation providers in April 2012.
This was an increase from 93,233 visitors recorded in
March 2012 and was greater than the 88,347 visitors
recorded in April 2011. The annual average growth rate
in the number of visitors to Rotorua’s commercial
accommodation providers was 1.4% for the year ended
April 2012.
SUMMARY
The Annual average growth rate in Rotorua’s index was
1.7% for the year ended April 2012. This was slower
than the 1.9% annual average growth rate in New
Zealand’s index during the same period.
KEY INDICATOR TRENDS
NATIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE
This section of the Economic Monitor presents current
information of recent national business events, along with
an update of key economic indicators.
Building Consents
1800
20%
1500
10%
0%
1200
-1 0 %
900
NZ QUARTERLY GDP GREW STRONGLY
600
Statistics New Zealand’s (SNZ) latest Gross Domestic
Product (GDP, production-based, in 95/96 prices) results
showed that the New Zealand economy grew by 1.1% in
the March 2012 quarter. This followed growth of 0.4%
in the December 2011 quarter. Growth in the year
ended March 2012 was 1.7%. All three major industry
sector groupings recorded growth during the March 2012
quarter --- Primary Industries grew by 2.4%, Goodsproducing Industries grew by 1.0% and service Industries
grew by 0.4% during this period.
300
After weak activity in the December 2011 quarter, the
primary industry sector rebounded strongly.
In
particular, agriculture grew by 2.3%. Helped by good
growing conditions during the March 2012 quarter, milk
production grew strongly. However, a fall of 1.4% in the
forestry and logging industry’s activity in this period partly
offset the upward trend.
This was the second
consecutive quarterly decrease in this sector which
reflected a weak level of forestry exports activity
experienced during the past six months. Activity in the
mining industry grew by 3.4% in the March 2012 quarter
driven by increased exploration activity and other related
services.
Compared to activity experienced in the
December 2011 quarter mining activity declined by 2.4%
in the March 2012 quarter.
-2 0 %
-3 0 %
-4 0 %
0
M a y -1 0
N o v -1 0
M a y -11
N o v -11
N o . o f b u ild in g c o n s e n t s
-5 0 %
M a y -1 2
A nnua l a v era ge % cha nge
Source: Statistics New Zealand
There were 1,372 new building consents with a combined
value of around $407.4 million issued for residential
dwellings in New Zealand during May 2012. The was
greater than the 1,230 consents issued in April 2012 and
an increase from the 1,139 consents issued in May 2011.
The annual average growth rate in the number of new
building consents issued for residential dwellings in New
Zealand was 9.0% for the year ended May 2012.
Car Registrations
15000
30%
20%
12000
10%
9000
0%
6000
-1 0 %
-2 0 %
3000
0
M a y -1 0
-3 0 %
N o v -1 0
M a y -11
C a r R e g is t r a t io n s
N o v -11
-4 0 %
M a y -1 2
A nnual A verage % C hange
Source: New Zealand Transport Agency
The goods-producing sector’s activity grew by 1.0% in
the March 2012 quarter propelled by an increase of 1.8%
in the manufacturing industry. Driven by dairy product
manufacturing, food and beverage outputs in the March
2012 quarter were 3.2% higher than in the December
21011 quarter. Metal production grew by 6.1% in the
March 2012 sector, but petroleum and chemical
production activity declined by 1.4% during this period.
Activity in electricity, gas and water decreased 0.7%
during the March 2012 quarter, the fourth consecutive
quarterly decline in this sector’s activity. Activity in the
construction sector was flat with 0.1% growth
experienced in the March 2012 quarter standing in
contrast to an increase of 2.5% experienced in the
December 2011 quarter.
There were 12,735 cars (including both new and exoverseas car types) registered nationwide during May
2012. This was an increase from the 11,307 cars
registered in April 2012 and an increase of 1,187 cars
compared to the number of cars registered in May 2011.
The annual average growth rate in the number of cars
registered in New Zealand was negative 1.5% for the
year ended May 2012.
Residential Real Estate Sales
8000
30%
20%
6000
10%
0%
Following an increase of 0.8% in the December 2011
quarter, activity in the service-based industries grew by
0.4% during the March 2012 quarter. The largest
contributor came from the professional, scientific,
technical and support services sector which edged 2.0%
higher over the latest quarter. Health care and social
assistance activity grew by 1.3% in the March 2012
quarter. Wholesale trade (up 1.2%) and public
administration (up 1.4%) also showed steady growth in
this period while retail trade and accommodation activity
declined by 0.6%.
Percent Change of GDP in the Mar‐12 Quarter Mining
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing
Prof, scientific, technical, admin, and …
Manufacturing
Public administration and safety
Health care and social assistance
Wholesale trade
Rental, hiring, and real estate services
Education and training
Financial and insurance services
Construction
Transport, postal, and warehousing
Retail trade and accommodation
Electricity, gas, water, and waste …
Arts, recreation, and other services
Info. media and telecommunications
‐4.0 ‐3.0 ‐2.0 ‐1.0
Quarterly % Change Source: Statistics New Zealand
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
4000
-1 0 %
-2 0 %
2000
-3 0 %
0
Ma y -1 0
No v -1 0
D w elling Sales
Ma y -1 1
No v -1 1
-4 0 %
Ma y -1 2
A nn ual average % change
Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
There were 7,175 houses with a median sale price of
around $369,000 sold in New Zealand during May 2012.
The number of sales rebounded strongly from 5,657
houses sold in April 2012 and 5,766 in May 2011. The
annual average growth rate in the number of houses sold
in New Zealand was negative 21.6% for the year ended
May 2012.
Retail Sales
8000
10%
7000
8%
6000
6%
5000
4%
4000
2%
3000
0%
2000
-2%
1000
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
NZ Retail sales
There were 140,841 international visitor arrivals to New
entered during May 2012, down from 195,668 recorded
in April 2012, but greater than the 140,741 visitors
recorded in May 2011. The annual average growth rate
in the number of international visitor arrivals to New
Zealand was 4.0% for the year ended May 2012.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Both consumer and business confidence declined during
June 2012. According to the June 2012 National Bank
(NB) Business Outlook Survey, a net 13% of firms
expected general business conditions to improve in 12
months’ time, down from a net 27% who held a similar
outlook in the NB’s May 2012 survey. The Westpac
McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index declined
from 102.4 points as at March 2012 to 99.9 as at June
2102 (less than 100 indicating pessimists outnumber
optimists).
-4%
Mar-12
Sep-11
Annual average % change
Source: Statistics New Zealand
The value of New Zealand’s retail sales increased from
$5,512.58 million in February 2012 to $6,033.4 million in
March 2012. This was stronger than the sales of
$5,781.5 million recorded in March 2011. The annual
average growth rate in the nominal value of New
Zealand’s retail sales was 4.6% for the year ended March
2012. (Updated data will be available in late August
2012).
DISCLAIMER
(1) Although the monitor incorporates the most recent information
available, many of the figures are provisional. Accordingly, no liability
can be accepted for the accuracy of the material contained herein.
Interest Rates
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.2
1-J un
1.4
7-J un
12-J un
15-J un
9 0 -d a y b ills (le f t)
20-J un
25-J un
28-J un
2 -ye a r Go vt. b o n d (rig h t)
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
New Zealand’s wholesale interest rates started to
increase in June 2012. By the end of the month the 90day bill rate had settled at 2.68%, up from 2.53%
recorded at the end of May 2012.
Exchange Rates
75
0.85
73
0.81
71
0.77
69
0.73
67
0.69
65
1-Jun
0.65
7-Jun
12-Jun
15-Jun
20-Jun
TWI (Jun 1979=100, left)
25-Jun
28-Jun
USA (m id-rate, right)
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Upbeat domestic economic activity (ie, the strong GDP
results), plus a stronger Australia dollar resulted in New
Zealand’s exchange rates appreciating during June 2012.
By the end of the month, NZ$1.00 traded against
US$0.79 and the Trade-Weighted Index (TWI) reached
71.5 points.
International Arrivals
5%
350000
4%
300000
3%
250000
200000
2%
150000
1%
100000
0%
-1 %
50000
0
M a y -1 0
N o v -1 0
V isito r N o .
Source: Statistics New Zealand
M a y -11
N o v -11
A nnua l a v e r a ge % c ha nge
-2 %
M a y -1 2
(2) Businesses and individuals are advised to seek professional advice
before making major business decisions and any decisions based on the
information contained in this report are made entirely at their own risk.