An Analysis of Firms’ Adoption of International Standards: One Size Fits All? Professor John Hudson* and Assoc. Professor Marta Orviska** ABSTRACT We analyse the take-up by firms of internationally recognized standards such as ISO 9000 and ISO 14000. Based on an analysis of 11,668 firms in countries in Asia and Eastern Europe, we conclude that the probability of standard certification increases with firm size, is greatest in large cities and in manufacturing industries. There are other differences, including between countries. Given these differences, we argue that single generic standards for all firms may not be optimal and that there is a case for the simultaneous publication of differentiated standards targeted at different user characteristics. *Department of Economics, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom; email: [email protected]. [corresponding author]. **Faculty of Economics, Matej Bel University, Tajovskeho 10, 975 90 Banska Bystrica, Slovak Republic; email: [email protected] The authors gratefully acknowledge valuable comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the paper. This paper was presented at the 16th EURAS Annual Standardization conference in Kaunas, Lithuania, June 2011. Key words: ISO 9000; ISO 14000; firms; standards; product quality JEL: L15, L25, O19. Running title: Firms’ Adoption of International Standards 1 An Analysis of Firms’ Adoption of International Standards: One Size Fits All? 1 Introduction Standards are an important feature of modern life. They have been fundamental both in the development of the European Union and in the development of complex modern technologies such as the mobile phone. There are many examples of standards. Two of the better known are the ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 families of standards which are examples of internationally recognized quality standards pertaining to management. Standards tend to be arrived at by ‘consensus’ and it is a general rule that a single, generic standard emerges which all firms are then able to benefit from. However, standards are often, if not always, the result of a compromise between various interested parties. But being they are the result of compromise, are they equally suited to all firms, large as well as small, service firms as well as manufacturing ones and firms in different countries? Is the single, generic standard designed for all users appropriate, or would a differentiated standard targeted at different types of firms be better? This is the key issue we are seeking to analyse. There are examples of differentiated standards, for instance standards specifically developed for small firms which are different to those used by large firms. But these are often developed several years after the core standard has appeared and then not been taken up by small firms. An example is ISO/IEC 29110 This relies on existing standards, such as ISO/IEC 12207 (software engineering life cycle standard). The motivation for this was that small firms were not willing to use large standards, such as 12207, due to their complexity and lack of support (Varkoi, 2010). Varkoi also notes that several countries translate the standards and supporting material to better serve their local industry. Standards often require skilled workers to implement and many countries have a shortage of skilled workers and again this may dictate the need for differentiated standards. The issue is important, as all standards, including quality ones, offer benefits to firms, regions and countries. This can happen in a number of ways. Firstly, quality standards may actually improve efficiency, leading to cost savings and potential quality enhancements Whether or not standards such as ISO9000 actually do lead to such efficiency gains is the subject of some dispute in the literature. But even if they do not, there are still potential gains to the firm in signalling quality. This is consistent with a literature, e.g. on advertising, that the mere expenditure of a substantial amount of money on signalling quality is something only a high quality firm would do (Milgrom and Roberts, 1986). Thirdly, the adoption of a standard may be necessary to gain entry to certain markets. Finally the adoption of certain types of standards may be useful in improving relationships with the 2 local community, shareholders, workers (if linked with safety) and other stakeholders. Hence differential access to standards may disadvantage some firms. Our analysis will be based on firms in both manufacturing and services, as well as other sectors such as construction which do not fit neatly in either category. As far as we are aware, our study is the only large scale analysis of firms’ use of standards across a substantial number of countries. Previously too, most studies have focused on manufacturing (Pekovic, 2010). The countries we have chosen are ‘transition ones’ in Europe and Asia. Some are well advanced in the transition process and indeed are members of the EU, others are less well advanced. The regression results will show systematic differences in standard certification by characteristics such as firm size, location and ownership, as well as between sectors and countries. This suggests the need for greater efforts by ISO and individual countries in facilitating standard certification amongst certain types of firms. In addition, the fact that take up is substantially less amongst some firms than others suggests there is a case for differentiated standards. Thus it may not be optimal to develop single homogenous, generic standards for all firms, i.e. one size may not fit all. The paper proceeds as follows. In the next section, we discuss the ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 families of standards. There then follows a discussion of the factors which both theory and the literature suggest impact on the firm’s standard certification decision. Section 4 presents the data and section 5 the regression results. Finally we conclude the paper. 2. The ISO Family of Standards The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) was established in 1947, at a time when several worldwide organisations were being established including the IMF and the World Bank. Its remit, in tune with the spirit of the times, was to develop worldwide standards to facilitate international trade and improve international communication and collaboration. ISO now produces many standards, indeed at the end of 2011 over 19,000, e.g. ISO 22000 and ISO/IEC 27001 which relate to food safety and information security respectively. However, probably its two most prominent products are the ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 families of standards. There have been many studies done on the impact of these on various aspects of a firm’s performance. There has also been a number of studies examining the diffusion of these standards at the level of a country. There has however been less done examining the reasons why individual firms seek such certification. 3 In line with ISO’s initial remit, international standards may serve to reduce information costs and, thereby, increase trade (Swann et al., 1996). Moreover, international standard certification is sometimes a regulatory requirement, particularly when trading in the EU. It has also been argued that international standards can reduce any competitive disadvantage associated with other sources of reputation, such as country of origin. A World Bank (1999:288) report states: “To expand their trade, countries also need good standards, measurement, testing, and quality control systems. These constitute the infrastructure for technical activity, and their significance grows as traded products and services increasingly have to conform to world standards and regulation. If consumers cannot readily distinguish between products or services produced by different firms, poor quality by one producer in a market can damage all others...........Obtaining certification for meeting quality standards is especially important for countries with a reputation for poor products ” (our emphasis). This same report highlighted the use of ISO 9000 as an international standard. In this respect standards may be particularly relevant for the developing and transition countries in our analysis. 2.1 ISO 9000 ISO 9000 can trace its ancestry back to military procurement standards around the Second World War. Eventually these led to BS 5750, the first commercial quality management standard published by the British Standards Institute in 1979. This was adopted, with some changes, as ISO 9000 in 1987. There was a minor update to the standard in 1994, a more major one in 2000, and a further one still in 2008, By the end of December 2009, at least 1,064,785 ISO 9001 (2000 and 2008) certificates had been issued in 178 countries and economies. In 2009, the growth rate over 2008 was 8 %1. The ISO 9000 family of standards represents an international consensus on good management practice. It is a ‘generic management standard’. Theoretically at least, the same standard can be applied to any organisation, large or small, whatever its product or sector of activity, regardless of whether it is a business enterprise, a public administration or a government department. It is primarily concerned with quality management, i.e. concerning what the organisation does to ensure that its products conform to customers’ requirements. While it is not a guarantee of quality per se, ISO certification means that an independent auditor has checked the process influencing quality. According to Beck and Walgenbach (2005) the introduction of a quality management system based on ISO 9000 increases management’s ability to control processes through their formalization. 1 Figures obtained from http://www.iso.org/iso/survey2009.pdf 4 ISO 9000 facilitates global trade (Peach 1995). Its use, particularly in Europe, has been promoted by the EU’s incorporation of ISO 9000 as part of the Communities’ Global Approach to Testing and Certification which revised policy on standards as a component of the EC 1992 economic integration initiative. ISO 9000 certification is generally given by an independent registrar and lasts for three years. Registrars are generally themselves accredited by national standards authorities. But there are perceived differences in the criteria used in different countries In addition in some countries there is often a conflict of interest with registrars acting as consultants. Partly, because of this there is no general acceptance of ISO 9000 certification made in one country by another and this is the subject of multilateral or bilateral agreements (Hudson and Jones, 2003). The arguments that have been put forward for firms adopting ISO 9000 relate to quality effectiveness, increased efficiency (Gotzamani and Tsiotras, 2002) and increased operational control (Bhuiyan and Alam, 2005). The process of certification addresses the issue of setting and implementing a management system that produces consistent levels of quality (Voehl et al., 1994). Implementation results in improved communication between employees, cost savings, reduced paper work, greater competitive advantage, more organized design and output and access to global markets (Peach, 1995). Tzelepis et al. (2006), on the basis of an econometric analysis of Greek firms, conclude that ISO 9001 increases productive efficiency. The World Bank (1999, Box 2.1) cites evidence that amongst 93 major Brazilian enterprises surveyed in 1994, 55 percent increased productivity as a result of ISO 9000 certification, 35 per cent improved the standardization of processes, 31 percent increased employee participation in quality control and more than 20 percent reported an increase in employee satisfaction. Many others have found benefits in terms of product quality, customer satisfaction, cost reduction, productivity and operating advantages (Gotzamani and Tsiotras, 2002). Reducing informational asymmetries is often cited as an advantage. Nicolau and Sellers (2010) find that ISO 9000 has a particularly high impact on the market value variation of hotel chains, which they attribute to a reduction in information asymmetry, Terlaak and King (2006) conclude that ISO 9000 certification facilities faster growth in US firms, which they link to a reduction in informational asymmetries in supply chains. Caro and Garcia (2009) find that ISO 9000 certification improves consumers' perceptions with regard to quality, satisfaction, and corporate image. In terms of the characteristics of firms who obtain certification, Lafuente et al. (2010) find ownership structure, especially whether a multinational firm is the largest shareholder, to be important. This is consistent with the benefits listed above. Prakash et al. (2006) found that manufacturing firms tended to get more from these benefits in efficiency gains than service firms, with there being little difference between the two in terms of the costs of obtaining ISO9000 registration. Others, have gone further in questioning the extent of these 5 benefits (Quazi et al., 2002). In addition too there is the potential for increased bureaucracy (Boiral, 2003) which may have an adverse impact on efficiency. 2.2 ISO 14000 ISO 14000 built on the success of ISO 9000, and is again a ‘generic management standard’ applicable to any organisation. In many respects ISO 14000 is similar to ISO 9000, but signals environmental quality rather than quality per se. Standardising multiple national environmental management system (EMS) standards is of specific benefit to companies operating across several countries, who had previously been faced with many, potentially incompatible, systems (Chan and Wong, 2006). By the end of December 2009, 223,149 ISO 14001:2004 certificates had been issued in 159 countries and economies. The reasons for obtaining ISO 9000 certification are similar to those relating to ISO14000 certification. But there are also differences. Thus it has been suggested that ISO 14001 certification is a way of enhancing relationships with communities, environmentally conscious investors and consumer groups. (Stenzel, 2000). Poksinska et al. (2003), with respect to Sweden, conclude that benefits partially stem from marketing advantages and improved relations with stakeholders and partially from greater awareness of environmental considerations within the firm. Hemenway and Hale (1995) argue that ISO14000 can benefit companies through reduced energy costs and by improving the company’s image with the general public and other stakeholders. Chan and Wong (2006), in the context of Hong Kong, argue that the factors leading hotels to adopt certification include corporate governance, particularly when part of a group, and the need to be seen to comply with legislation. Curkovic et al. (2005) concludes firm size, the proportion of sales going to consumers, rather than up the supply chain, foreign ownership and export focus are important in determining ISO14000 certification. Finally, Massoud et al. (2010) argue that small to medium-size enterprises (SMEs) may face serious constraints in setting up and maintaining an EMS. 3. Why Firms Adopt International Standards We focus on the case where certification is not a statutory, or near statutory, requirement to enter certain markets. Firms will seek certification if it is in their financial interests to do so, i.e. if the increase in revenue exceeds any net increase in costs (ΔC). The change in net costs relates to the costs of certification (CS) less any savings, possibly negative, the firm may make as a consequence of having better quality control techniques in place: 6 ΔC = CS + (dC/dE)ΔE (1) dC/dE represents the reduction (or increase) in costs as a consequence of increased efficiency and ΔE the change in efficiency as a consequence of standard certification. The increase in revenue comes about through the impact of increased efficiency on the ability to raise price or increase quantity sold. Thus these gains are likely to be greatest for large volume producers or high price producers, or some combination of the two. The impact of certification on efficiency is potentially twofold. Firstly, there is the possibility that actual product quality may rise. In this case, the impact of quality certification is likely to be greater the more complex the organisation. Complexity can be expected to increase with size, be greater for group firms, may differ between industries and may also be greater in manufacturing, where raw materials need to be brought in and final products shipped out, than in services. Secondly there is the possibility that quality is more effectively signalled to customers and potential customers. We illustrate the latter point now using a Bayesian adjustment approach, as in Hudson and Jones (2001). The expected, which we assume is the perceived, level of quality of the firm’s product given it adopts the standard is q* = qSσ2/(σ2 + σ2S) + qσ2S/(σ2 + σ2S) (2) where qS is the level of quality signalled by the standard, q that perceived without standard certification. Perceived quality with standard certification (q*) is a weighted average of q and q S. The weights relate to σ2S, the variance of the standard quality signal, and σ2, the variance of perceptions without the standard. The increase in perceived quality (Δq*) will be a function of the gap between qS and q, and also of σ2S relative to σ2: Δq* = (qS – q)σ2/(σ2 + σ2S) (3) The confidence that people have in their expectations when the firm is standard certified is inversely related to the variance of those perceptions (2*) which equals σ2σ2S/(σ2 + σ2S). Thus the gain in confidence, or decline in the variance, following standard certification is: 7 Δ2* = σ2[σ2/(σ2 + σ2S)] (4) The smaller is σ2S relative to σ2, the greater the gain in confidence. Hence, the standard certified firm gains from (i) signalling higher quality and (ii) reduced uncertainty, and both can impact positively on revenue. To the extent that perceptions of quality have become associated with the income per capita of the country of origin, developing and transition countries find it especially difficult to signal quality with respect to consumer goods generally (Jones and Hudson, 1996). Many of the other signals such as brand name and word of mouth relate to established products and are also unavailable to them. Hence for firms in these countries who are trying to compete in export markets, international quality standards may be of particular importance. The signalling argument is relevant to firms higher up the supply chain as well as consumers. This is particularly the case if standard certification reduces the need for purchasing firms to undertake their own quality control checks on supplier firms (Tirole, 1988)2. Hence, Anderson et al. (1999) suggest, and provide empirical support for, the hypothesis that firms supplying to other firms are particularly likely to face demands for ISO certification. However, firms which already have a reputation for high quality may not need to register (Kreps and Wilson, 1982). There are possible reasons for adopting quality certification which do not fit neatly into an immediate impact on profits. These include, for ISO 14000 in particular, concerns over the health and safety of the workforce, a better relationship with shareholders and a better relationship with local people and local government. The latter may facilitate planning applications. In addition, firms in industries regulated by the EU are more likely to demand from their suppliers ISO 9000 certification (Anderson et al., 1999) and also ISO 14000 certification. Following on from this discussion, and also building on the literature review, we will include the following explanatory variables in our analysis of firms who have standard certification: Domestic, or export, focus: ISO certification is least likely amongst firms who trade locally. It is easier for customers, consumers and other firms to observe the firm if it is local. In addition firms that export abroad may also be exposed to new ideas and for this reason may learn about and adopt management standards (Montiel and Husted, 2009). Apart from exporting firms, this is also relevant for firms trading within their country, but outside their region. Reflecting this we will also include factors which facilitate communication. 2 For example. when three US car manufacturers adopted ISO 9000 procedures it replaced three separate programs that required suppliers to submit different sets of documentation and allow periodic audits by the car firms. ISO 9000 registration then became the only supplier requirement. 8 Cost Pressures: We will also include information on cost pressures as suggested by Pekovic (2010). As we shall see, this will supplement our analysis of the impact of domestic focus. Managerial experience: To the extent that ISO certification increases knowledge on best practices, the need for certification will decrease with managerial experience. Experienced managers have already acquired significant knowledge and may feel, perhaps not always correctly, there is less to gain from ISO certification. However, it needs to be emphasized that managers with long years of experience are also successful managers. Some younger managers may eventually prove unsuccessful and exit the industry. Size: ISO certification is particularly likely for large firms whose certification costs can be spread over a large revenue stream and who potentially have more to gain from standardising complex administrative structures (Dobbin and Sutton, 1998). Smaller firms too, face problems in accessing the expertise necessary to implement the relevant procedures. In larger firms this is often found ‘in house’ (Grolleau et al, 2007). Ownership: ISO certification is more likely for foreign and group firms, than other firms. They have access to greater resources, greater knowledge (Gourlay and Pentecost, 2002) and perhaps face greater internal pressure to seek certification (Pekovic, 2010). Particularly for group firms, with a potentially complex management structure spread over several sites, it may be a way of ensuring managerial efficiency in the face of what is in effect a principal agent problem. Location: ISO certification may be more likely in larger cities, which are likely to have certification agents and also where the effects of other firms’ certification can be more readily observed. If significant, domestic focus and managerial experience would be consistent with a standard which does not adversely differentiate between firms, as these reflect differential benefits between firms. But some of the remaining variables, if significant, would suggest that some firms are disadvantaged in terms of accessing standards. For example, if it is found that the probability of standard certification is low for small firms, it would suggest that the high costs of certification relative to sales may be a deterrent factor and that small firms would benefit from a simpler, less costly standard. Similar arguments can be made if, e.g., there are systematic differences in take up between the service and manufacturing sectors or between countries. In all these case, there would then be a basis for us to question whether a single generic standard is really optimal. 4. Data 9 We analyse the data from the World Bank’s 2009 Enterprise Surveys 3, of a sample of firms in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. The sample was chosen as it represents a range of transition countries, some well established in international markets and others much less so. It is based on 11,668 firms in the countries shown in Figure 1. The surveys are targeted at establishments with five or more full time employees. Geographical distribution is defined to reflect the distribution of non-agricultural economic activity and for most countries this implies including the major urban centres. This data base is being increasingly used by, e.g., Gorodnichenko et al. (2010) with respect to innovation and Beck et al. (2004) in analysing access to credit across a range of countries, including transition ones. Insert Figure 1 about here The specific variable we will analyse is based on the responses to the question “Does this establishment have an internationally-recognized quality certification?”. The interviewers were instructed that “If there is need for clarification, some examples are: ISO 9000, 9002 or 14000”. The raw data is shown in Figure 1 and shows substantial differences between countries. There is a tendency, which is consistent with expectations, for standard certification to be high in EU countries or aspiring ones such as Turkey. But there are some EU countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, where certification is quite low. The question clearly leans towards an interpretation that we are considering adoption of ISO standards and in particular the ISO 9000/14000 sets of standards. But is this interpretation justified? Figure 2 shows the proportion of firms in the survey who have adopted a standard plotted against the ratio of the total number of ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 series standards to Gross National Income (GNI, the unit being $100m) in the different countries4. There is a close relationship which justifies us in assuming that to a considerable extent the standards referred to in the survey are ISO standards. Insert Figure 2 about here 3 This is also known as the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS). More information is available and the data accessible at http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/. 4 The ISO number of standards relate to the end of 2008 (Source: ISO, http://www.iso.org/iso/survey2008.pdf). The GNI figure is for 2009 and has been converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates (Source World Bank). GNI is being used here as a proxy for the number of firms in the country. 10 Table 1 shows the correlations between standard certification and firm characteristics. Certification is positively correlated with being a large firm, a city location, managerial experience, being in the manufacturing sector, foreign and group firms and using the Internet to communicate to clients. It is negatively correlated with being a small, or a young, firm, located in rural areas or small towns, being in the service sector and the extent of focus on the domestic market. The average figures emphasize just how common standard certification is amongst foreign, and in particular group, firms. There is no evidence of the expected impact of managerial experience. Instead certification seems to be highest for the most experienced of managers. The domestic focus variable is more in line with expectations. Firms with a 100% domestic focus appear least likely to have standard certification, but the highest certification is for firms with some, but not a total, export focus5. The data relating to sectors shows certification is lowest in the service sectors and tends to be more common in the manufacturing sectors. Hotels and restaurants, and also firms in the retail sector, are characterized by particularly low certification. This is consistent with a signalling hypothesis, as the consumer can directly see and experience the quality of these establishments, and for hotels there is often an alternative, * based, system of quality rating. Insert Table 1 about here 5. Regression results Insert Table 2 about here Table 2 shows the regression results. Because the dependent variable is binomial, the technique of probit, within STATA, was used. We have used the robust or sandwich estimator of the standard errors 6. This estimator is robust to some types of misspecification so long as the observations are independent. The pseudo R 2s are as reported by STATA and are quite high for this type of analysis. The results in 2.1 show that the probability of 5 Export focus is, of course, a mirror image of domestic focus. 6 An alternative is to use a cluster-robust estimator. But with a small number of clusters, e.g. less than 50, or very unbalanced cluster sizes, this can present problems (Nichols and Schaffer, 2007). In our case the first criteria mitigates against using countries as the base for the cluster and the second precludes the use of regions. 11 standard certification increases with the age of the firm, is less for small firms compared to medium sized ones, and for the latter compared to large firms. Similarly, firms in rural areas are less likely to have standard certification than firms in medium sized towns, which in turn are less likely to be certified than those in larger cities. Both foreign and group firms are more likely to be standard certified. Finally we note that firms which use the Internet to connect with clients are much more likely to use standards. This could be because it represents a progressive and entrepreneurial attitude. To check this we re-estimated the regression, as shown in 2.2, replacing individual Internet firm usage with that of the average usage for the firms in the region 7. It remains significant with the same sign, indicating that the quality of the Internet connection does indeed impact upon standard adoption. One interpretation of this is that the Internet facilitates the acquisition of information including that related to standards. But we will delay discussion of this until having considered further regressions. In none of the regressions was the quality of regional transport, derived in a similar way to regional Internet usage, significant. There are also significant differences between countries, and as suggested by Figure 1, these are substantial. They are not shown in the regressions, but in regression 2.1, firms of a given set of characteristics were least likely to be standard certified in Albania, Uzbekistan and the Ukraine, and most likely in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania. The combined significance of these variables suggests significant differences in standard certification in a manner which may plausibly be linked with differences in the costs of accessing or the benefits of acquiring the standard and which do not simply reflect differences in managerial experience or a need to signal quality to distant markets. Instead they reflect differences arising from the way the standard has been designed and the way the net benefits are systematically greater for some firms than others. Turning to the other variables, with respect to company form, partnerships and sole proprietors are less likely to use standards than other firms. Standard certification declines with managerial experience, but at a decreasing rate8. It begins to turn up again with managerial experience of about 26 years. Most firms have managerial experience less than that, but the turning up of the curve may be real, rather than an artefact of using a quadratic form, as suggested in Table 1. There are several possible explanations as to why this could be so, including a 7 When calculating this average for the i’th firm, we excluded the i’th firm from the calculation. It thus represents average email usage for all other firms in the same region as the i’th one. 8 This apparently contradicts the positive correlation reported in Table 1, but this is multiple regression where we are considering the impact of managerial experience given all the other variables. 12 loosening of control amongst older managers, which they seek to compensate for by implementing quality certification. Clearly, more research is needed on this. In 2.3 we introduce two variables reflecting cost pressures, as suggested by Pekovic (2010). The results indicate that if this pressure comes from domestic competitors, firms are less likely to adopt standards, but if it comes from foreign firms then they are then more likely to do so. They do not respond to pressure from customers. This suggests that domestic competition is focused on price, and international competition more on quality. Regression 2.4 adds to this the domestic focus of the firm, which is very significant. The curve linking the probability of standard certification with domestic focus is an inverted U shaped one. The maximum probability of being standard certified is for firms with some export focus, but not a total one. The raw data supports this conclusion as can be seen from Table 1. Consequently we replaced the two domestic focus variables with two dummy variables, the first operative if the firm had domestic focus less than 25% and the second greater than 75%. Both were negatively significant at the 1% level of significance in an additional regression not reported in the Table9. The coefficients were -0.34 and -0.43 respectively, confirming that the greatest probability of certification is for firms with some export focus, rather than a dominant one. These regressions may be affected by problems of endogeneity. Firms who become standard certified may then be more likely to have a significant export focus and as a consequence face cost pressures from foreign firms. We therefore instrumented these variables within a two stage estimation process. The instruments are the regional and industry (at the SIC 2 digit level of classification) averages of (i) firms’ domestic focus and (ii) their views on the impact of foreign and domestic competition on their costs. For the i’th firm these averages relate to all other firms in the i’th firm’s region or sector. There were 150 regions. These instruments are all significant in the three regressions at the 1% level and hence they appear suitably strong instruments. The predicted values from the reduced form regressions were then included in the regression as shown in column 2.5. Both domestic focus and foreign competition were significant at the 1% level, but not domestic competition and this was dropped from the regression. A nonlinear impact of domestic focus is still present. The signs of the other variables are largely unchanged, but with reduced significance 10. 9 10 The fit of the regression was not as good as that in 2.4 The locational variables are insignificant, but are significant in all the reduced form equations. Hence their impact is through the instrumented variables. 13 The final two regressions repeat regression (2.4), but just on firms in the construction and service sectors (2.6) and on manufacturing firms (2.7). The results are different. The two managerial experience variables were only significant in the manufacturing regression. However, a single dummy variable operative for firms where the manager had relatively little experience 11 was positively significant in the services and construction equation, and this is the variable shown in the regression. This once more suggests that low managerial experience is associated with a greater probability of certification, but for services there is no evidence that firms with high managerial experience also see a high probability of certification. Neither were the spatial variables relating to rural and town based location significant in this regression. However, the regional Internet usage variable was very significant. In the regression relating to the manufacturing sector, the significance was the other way round. This tentatively suggests these two sets of variables are correlated and indeed if we omit the Internet variable from the services sector regression then the locational variables become significant 12. The impact of the domestic competition variable is also only significant in the manufacturing equation, with pressure from customers on costs leading to a decline in standard certification in the services’ regression. In the services’ sector over 95% of sales are for the domestic market, whilst in the manufacturing sector the figure was only 80%. Thus this once more suggests that domestic cost pressures, whether from firms or customers, reduce the likelihood of standard certification. 6. Conclusions and policy Implications The results confirm that there are substantial differences in standard certification between firms of different characteristics. In part these reflect the differing value of quality standards to, e.g. exporting and non-exporting firms. But this is not always the case. Firms outside large cities, and particularly in rural areas, appear disadvantaged in terms of accessing ISO certification. The raw data from Table 1 suggests the former are about 60% more likely to be standard certified than other firms and large firms are almost four times more likely than small firms. The regression results in table 2 confirm that this is not simply because of other differences in characteristics. These are large differences and to the extent that it is because there are differential transaction 11 That is 5 years or less. 12 If we do the reverse for the manufacturing regression, then the sign on electronic communication becomes positive as expected, although it fails to be significant at the 5% level. 14 costs in acquiring ISO certification, it is an issue which should be of concern to the ISO 13 and national and regional governments. If ISO 9000 and also ISO 14000 improve managerial efficiency as the literature suggests may be the case, then it may be to the firms’ disadvantage, and to the country’s, that they are not standard certified to a similar extent as larger firms. These differences in quality standard certification both within and between countries support the hypothesis that the same generic standard is not optimally suited to all firms, all sectors and all countries. Thus the argument can be made that standards such as ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 should be defined differently for firms in manufacturing as opposed to those in service sectors or for small as opposed to large firms. Even if there is no such case on technical grounds, the fact that there are different take-up rates may in itself justify different standards. The optimal standard is a trade-off between certification costs and benefits. Larger firms, for example, will want more ambitious standards than smaller ones. The advantage of a single, uniform, generic standard is that it strengthens the signal and increases the degree of interoperability. Having two different standards, e.g. one for large and one for smaller firms, might lead to some confusion and might weaken the signal. But this advantage comes at a cost, particularly if the gap between what different firms want is large. In the case of the standards analysed in this paper, this may have contributed to the uneven take up across firm size, location, organizational structures and sectors. This is possibly also the case for other standards, e.g. technical ones as published by the IEC. These again are often the outcome of compromise in a consensus seeking process, with different countries favouring different standards on geographical and climate considerations, as well as their skill base. In this case what is optimal for the richer countries of the temperate north may not be so suited to the needs of predominantly poorer countries in the south. This then sometimes leads to standards being adapted by different countries. Differentiated standards may therefore actually lead to less heterogeneity, with perhaps two variants being sufficient to satisfy all countries, without need for further adaptation. The whole issue of the optimal number of standard variants is one deserving of further analysis. There are other policies open to increase standard certification. Brown et al. (1998) suggest that sharing expert time with other SMEs and/or involving students who are following quality programs are potential solutions to the problem of low registration amongst SMEs. This, and greater use of the Internet in the 13 There is the possibility that firms in rural areas have a greater local focus than those in large towns and cities. However, the latter are still more likely to have standard certification when restricted to manufacturing, than firms in smaller towns and rural areas. This suggests a transaction costs explanation. Although to be definitive on this issue we need information on the full costs of ISO certification in differing locations. 15 certification process, may also help firms outside the large towns and cities. From a different perspective, Hudson and Jones (2003) have argued that an effective form of aid to developing and transition countries would be to subsidize ISO 9000 certification. There is an even stronger case for subsidizing ISO 14000 certification due to the public good element of improved environmental performance. More generally, our results are of importance in helping us to understand firms' growth and to formulate policies to facilities this, especially in the tradeables sector. Economic integration appears to be an effective way of speeding up economic growth. For example, the enlargement in market potential is capable of explaining between 15% and 40%, of the economic growth of the new member countries after joining the EU (Clemente et al., 2009). Clemente et al. also emphasise that peripheral countries face a greater challenge in order to appropriate such benefits, and again international quality standards can facilitate their integration. The benefits of free trade are well known, if under some attack in recent years following the economic crisis (Salvatore, 2009). Perhaps the greatest benefits in the immediate future, for both the EU and globally, lie in opening up the services sector. The EU has been trying to do this for some time (European Commission, 2011). De Bruijn et al (2008) estimate that the 2004 Services Directive could increase the volume of trade in ‘other commercial services’ by as much as 62%. However, simply reducing the barriers to trade in services will be only partially successful if not accompanied by a means for unknown, often small, firms to both signal and achieve adequate quality. Quality standards such as ISO9000 can facilitate this, but to do so, as we emphasised earlier, a differentiated standard may be needed targeted more at both the service sector and small firms, who are particularly important in this sector. There are still large gains still to be made in manufacturing. Hassan et al (2010) show that progressive reductions in trade restrictions in Bangladesh have played a role in improving manufacturing firms’ total factor productivity growth. They emphasise that in order to maximize domestic growth opportunities, domestic capacity building should be encouraged, highlighting education and the labour market. But quality standards can again potentially play a role in both improving and signalling quality. The opening up trade, in part stimulated by international quality management standards, may also have spin off effects on other firms who are forced to compete against new firms from outside their region and even their country14. Finally, these results to an extent confirm previous research, although seldom has this research been on as large a group of firms and countries as we have used. But our analysis has also added to previous research in 14 Our results, particularly with respect to the impact of cost pressures, lend support to this possibility. 16 several ways. In addition, to the qualification of the impact of an export or domestic focus, the results with respect to managerial experience and spatial factors are new to the literature. Also new to the literature is the impact of Internet usage. This was a regional, rather than a firm specific, variable and suggests that the quality of the Internet infrastructure can have an impact on a firm acquiring standard certification. There are two possibilities, firstly the Internet facilitates knowledge acquisition and reduces the transaction costs involved with standard certification. Secondly it facilitates access to long distance markets where signalling quality is more important than in local markets. Finally, with respect to the impact of domestic focus, it is worth noting that it is a significant factor despite the inclusion of a variable reflecting competitive pressures from foreign firms. Hence the significance of domestic focus is due to reasons other than simply competing against foreign firms. However, the impact is not unambiguous, firms with a very large export market are less likely to have standard certification than firms with smaller, but still sizeable, export sales as a proportion of their total market. It may be that the former are well established in export markets and have less need for standard certification to signal quality. This is consistent with the argument by Kreps and Wilson (1982) that firms which already have a reputation for high quality in a market may not need to acquire one by means such as standard certification. References Anderson, S.W., Daly, J D. & Johnson, M.F. (1999). 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Process assessment in very small entities: An ISO/IEC 29110 based method, Paper presented at 2010 Seventh International Conference on the Quality of Information and Communications Technology Voehl, F., Jackson, P. & Ashton, D. (1994). ISO 9000: An Implementation Guide for Small to Mid-Sized Businesses, Delray Beach, FL., St. Lucie Press. World Bank (1999). World Development Report: Knowledge for Development. Oxford, UK, Oxford University Press. Appendix: Definition of variables: Endogenous variables Standard Binary variable, coded 1 if firm has, or is acquiring, an internationally-recognized quality certification (such as ISO 9000, 9002 or 14000). Exogenous variables (binary, unless otherwise stated) Age: The length of time, in years, the establishment has been operating in the country. Small firm Coded 1 if the number of full time employees is less than 20. Medium sized firm Coded 1 if the number of full time employees is between 20 and 100, Sole proprietor Coded 1 if the firm has the legal status of a sole proprietor. Partnership Coded 1 if the firm is a partnership Private Ltd Co Coded 1 if the firm is a private limited company Publicly listed Co. Coded 1 if the firm is a publicly listed company Group Coded 1 if the firm is part of a larger firm. Foreign Coded 1 if the share of the company held by foreign individuals or companies > 49%. Manager’s The number of years of experience working in the sector for the firm’s top manager. experience Rural Coded 1 if the firm’s location has less than 50,000 people Town Coded 1 if the firm’s location has between 50,000 and 1 million people (and is not a capital city) Cost Pressures Three variables relating to the pressures on costs from domestic competitors, foreign competitors and customers respectively, coded 1 if these were ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ important Domestic focus The % of the firm's sales which were national sales and is of course inversely related to export focus. Electronic Binary variable, coded 1 if the firm used the Internet to communicate with clients communication or suppliers. (The regional average of this is used as an indicator of regional Internet infrastructure), Transport The extent to which transport presented an obstacle to the firm, responses ranged from no obstacle (coded 1) to very severe obstacle (coded 5). 20 For the last two variables regional averages were calculated. For firm i they relate to the average response in the region for all firms other than firm i. In addition there are industry/sector and country variables as defined in the tables. Table 1: Summary statistics of standard usage Correlation Average (%) Correlation Average (%) All firms 28.1 Small firm -0.27** 13.0 Electronic communication 0.23** 33.8 Medium firm 0.018* 29.6 Foreign firm 0.15** 50.9 Large firm 0.28** 49.8 Group firm 0.13** 64.1 Rural -0.03** 26.0 Service & construction -0.15** 22.0 Town -0.06** 24.4 Manufacturing 0.15** 35.4 City 0.08** 40.1 Manager's experience 0.063** Young -0.06** 20.9 Experience <5 years -0.00398 26.7 Domestic focus -0.20** Experience >=5 & <25 years -0.0382** 26.7 D. Focus =100% -0.29** 20.1 Experience >25 years 0.036** 31.5 D. Focus>=25% & <75% 0.18** 56.1 Retail -0.160** 16.1 D. Focus<25% 0.10** 45.0 Hotels & restaurants -0.045** 17.6 Transport sector -0.004 27.4 Garments (Manufacturing) -0.050** 19.2 Construction sector 0.023* 31.5 Wholesale -0.014 25.9 Food sector 0.056** 36.6 Other services -0.010 25.6 Textiles sector 0.040** 38.3 Other manufacturing 0.140** 38.7 Notes: **/* denotes significance at the 1% and 5% levels respectively The average shows the proportion of firms with standard certification in that group. The correlation relates to that between the variable and standard certification. Table 2: Regression results 2.1 All firms Electronic Communication Regional Transport Manager's experience Manager's experience2 Log firm age Small firm Medium Sized Firm Rural Town Foreign Group Partnership Private Ltd Co. 0.406** (8.96) -0.0434 (0.38) -0.0167** (3.87) 0.032** (3.50) 0.0616** (2.75) -0.937** (22.69) -0.4566** (12.86) -0.1678** (3.93) -0.1156** (3.20) 0.3145** (5.90) 0.3156** (6.86) -0.2251* (2.18) 0.0465 2.2 2.3 All firms All firms 0.185** (2.67) -0.0522 (0.46) -0.0162** (3.79) 0.0302** (3.33) 0.0639** (2.87) -1.004** (24.75) -0.4877** (13.81) -0.1741** (3.87) -0.1132** (2.95) 0.3359** (6.26) 0.3202** (6.93) -0.2313* (2.25) 0.0386 0.1908** (2.72) -0.0678 (0.59) -0.0162** (3.78) 0.0301** (3.31) 0.0602** (2.70) -0.9843** (24.15) -0.4731** (13.29) -0.1674** (3.71) -0.1048** (2.72) 0.3089** (5.72) 0.3191** (6.91) -0.2311* (2.24) 0.0421 2.4 2.5 All firms All firms 0.1899** (2.72) -0.0916 (0.80) -0.0168** (3.88) 0.0314** (3.42) 0.0446* (1.98) -0.9264** (22.27) -0.4444** (12.32) -0.1691** (3.70) -0.1047** (2.70) 0.3019** (5.50) 0.3297** (7.11) -0.2361* (2.28) 0.0246 2.6 Services & construction 0.2881** 0.4203** (3.97) (4.33) -0.3338** 0.0359 (2.85) (0.23) -0.0181** 0.1517* (4.14) (2.40)a 0.0344** (3.64) 0.0025 0.0192 (0.10) (0.58) -0.8106** -0.7967** (13.65) (14.16) -0.4056** -0.3807** (8.90) (7.29) 0.0104 -0.0864 (0.18) (1.41) 0.0725 -0.046 (1.51) (0.82) 0.1715** 0.3546** (2.60) (4.49) 0.2698** 0.3746** (5.82) (5.93) -0.2341* -0.3272* (2.24) (2.29) 0.0617 -0.1026 2.7 Manufacturing -0.082 (0.77) -0.2539 (1.52) -0.0224** (3.66) 0.0438** (3.43) 0.0562 (1.81) -1.101** (17.07) -0.502** (9.76) -0.2642** (3.72) -0.1588** (2.85) 0.2528** (3.30) 0.2917** (4.21) -0.125 (0.84) 0.1893* 21 Publicly Listed Co. Sole proprietor Domestic focus Domestic focus2 Cost Pressures Domestic competition Foreign competition Customers (0.80) 0.0989 (1.44) -0.1855** (2.59) (0.67) 0.0754 (1.11) -0.2271** (3.19) (0.73) 0.074 (1.09) -0.2262** (3.16) (0.42) 0.0505 (0.73) -0.2161** (3.01) 0.0274** (10.20) -0.0273** (11.74) -0.0762* (2.28) 0.2694** (8.34) -0.053 (1.54) -0.0607 (1.78) 0.2082** (6.24) -0.0456 (1.32) (1.05) 0.0246 (0.36) -0.2535** (3.53) 0.0406** (3.62) -0.0018** (2.78) (1.27) -0.0901 (0.93) -0.3112** (3.17) 0.0262** (4.87) -0.0266** (6.01) (2.25) 0.2271* (2.27) -0.0913 (0.85) 0.0267** (8.31) -0.0261** (9.20) 1.119** (8.49) -1.070** (8.14) 0.002 (0.04) 0.1997** (4.16) -0.1379** (2.84) -0.1294** (2.70) 0.2138** (4.53) 0.0422 (0.85) Sectors Food 0.0307 0.0166 0.048 0.0994* 0.2544** 0.0863 (0.63) (0.34) (0.99) (2.02) (4.40) (1.67) Textiles -0.4451** -0.4534** -0.4778** -0.5327** -0.4632** -0.5659** (5.39) (5.51) (5.76) (6.27) (4.69) (6.39) Garments -0.5686** -0.584** -0.6026** -0.5666** -0.5872** -0.5839** (7.84) (8.14) (8.34) (7.55) (7.43) (7.46) Construction -0.2087** -0.2258** -0.1726** -0.0509 0.2405** -0.1599 (4.03) (4.39) (3.31) (0.95) (2.91) (1.03) Other -0.2104* -0.22** -0.1917* -0.0914 -0.0352 -0.2077 services (2.46) (2.58) (2.22) (1.05) (0.35) (1.22) Wholesale -0.3958** -0.3814** -0.3644** -0.2923** -0.3111** -0.4243** (6.93) (6.67) (6.37) (5.02) (4.43) (2.70) Retail -0.6066** -0.6203** -0.591** -0.4828** -0.4031** -0.6067** (14.42) (14.83) (14.05) (11.07) (6.14) (3.99) Hotels & -0.5111** -0.5434** -0.4964** -0.4141** -0.0065 -0.5387** restaurants (5.96) (6.42) (5.86) (4.89) (0.06) (3.19) Transport -0.3823** -0.3895** -0.3557** -0.3353** -0.0122 -0.4218** (5.61) (5.72) (5.20) (4.84) (0.15) (2.60) Observations 10998 10996 10996 10996 10995 6031 4965 Log Likelihood -5209 -5248 -5214 -5132 -5197 -2579 -2500 X2 1966 1965 2021 2178 2640 976 1091 Pseudo R2 0.201 0.195 0.2 0.212 0.202 0.187 0.224 % correct 77.80% 77.60% 77.70% 78.20% 78.10% 80.80% 75.10% Notes: Regressions estimated by probit; (.) denotes t statistics, */** significance at the 5% and 1% levels respectively. Standard errors have been corrected for heteroscedasticty. In 2.5 foreign competition and domestic focus have been instrumented. Variables defined in data appendix, country fixed effects included. In 2.1 electronic communication relates to whether the firm uses this, in all other regressions it is the regional average as described in the data appendix. All regional variables are logged. Χ2 represents the likelihood ratio test statistic. The coefficients on the two squared terms have been multiplied by 100 for presentational purposes. % correct, denotes the % of correct predictions. aIn 2.6 the managerial experience variable is a dummy one, operative for firms with top managers having five years or less experience. 22 Density Figure 1: Firms with an international standard Albania Belarus Georgia Tajikistan Turkey Ukraine Uzbekistan Russia Poland Romania Serbia Kazakhstan Moldova Bosnia & Herz Azerbaijan Fyr Macedonia Armenia Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Estonia Kosovo Czech Republic Hungary Latvia Lithuania Slovak Republic Slovenia Bulgaria Croatia Montenegro Explanation Histogram shows the proportions without a standard and then with .5 Figure 2: The relationship between the survey standards and ISO standards .4 Turkey .3 R2 of fitted line = 0.56 .1 .2 Bulgaria 0 2 4 6 ISO ratio to GNI Survey standards Fitted values The survey proportion is the proportion of firms in the survey with a standard; The ISO ratio is the ratio of the number of ISO9000/14000 standards to GNI 23
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