Embargo: Thursday, 16 August 2012, 10am GMT
Ifo World Economic Climate
Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of the 3rd quarter 2012
in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris
Ifo World Economic Climate Suffers Setback
After two successive increases the Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator fell in the third
quarter. The decline was due to both unfavourable assessments of the current economic
climate and a less positive six-month economic outlook. The results imply a setback in
the recovery of world economy.
In Western Europe and North America the economic climate indicator fell compared to the
second quarter, mainly due to far less positive expectations for the next six months. Assessments of the current situation were also poorer. In Asia, on the other hand, less favourable assessments of the current economic situation were primarily responsible for the indicator’s decline, after its strong upturn in the previous quarter. Despite a small downwards revision, the sixmonth economic outlook for Asia nevertheless remains positive.
World average inflation estimates for 2012 dropped to 3.4% (previous quarter: 3.6%). WES experts on average expect short-term interest rates to fall over the next six months. However, they
believe that long-term interest rates are set to increase slightly.
According to WES experts the British pound and the yen are over-valued. On worldwide average
economic experts expect the dollar exchange rate to rise over the next six months.
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute
World Economy (Index, base year: 2005 = 100)
Quarter/year III/2010 IV/2010 I/2011 II/2011 III/2011 IV/2011
103.2
98.6
106.8
107.7
97.7
78.7
Climate
93.5
95.3
102.8
108.4
99.1
86.0
Situation
112.3
101.8
110.5
107.0
96.5
71.9
Expectations
I/2012
82.4
84.1
80.7
II/2012 III/2012
95.0
85.1
87.9
78.5
101.8
91.2
Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle
developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The July 2012 survey received
responses from 1,079 experts in 123 countries. The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC).
A detailed regional analysis appears in the quarterly journal: CESifo World Economic Survey. This
press release contains advance information on the most important results.
www.cesifo-group.de
2
Fig. 1
Ifo World Economic Climate*
140
2005=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
long-term average 1996-2011 (96.7)
50
40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
* Arithmetic mean of judgement about the present and expected economic situation.
Source: Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) III/2012.
12
©
Fig. 2
Economic Situation and Expectations
World Economy
good/
better
by the end of the
next 6 months
satisfactory/
about
the same
at present
bad/
worse
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Source: Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) III/2012.
www.cesifo-group.de
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
©
3
North America
Fig. 3
140
Economic Climate*
2005=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
long-term average 1996-2011 (91.8)
50
40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
* Arithmetic mean of judgement about the present and expected economic situation.
Source: Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) III/2012.
12
©
Western Europe
150
Economic Climate*
2005=100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
long-term average 1996-2011 (105.7)
50
40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
* Arithmetic mean of judgement about the present and expected economic situation.
Source: Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) III/2012.
12
©
Asia
140
Economic Climate*
2005=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
long-term average 1996-2011 (90.7)
40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
* Arithmetic mean of judgement about the present and expected economic situation.
Source: Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) III/2012.
Climate (2005=100) III/2010 IV/2010 I/2011 II/2011
88.7
82.8 104.6
98.7
North America
102.2
105.2 113.2 115.1
Western Europe
107.9
95.6 105.3 101.8
Asia
www.cesifo-group.de
III/2011
81.2
105.2
94.7
IV/2011
69.5
81.4
77.2
11
12
©
I/2012 II/2012
87.9
95.4
82.4
99.3
74.6
90.4
III/2012
81.2
89.3
83.3