Northwest Coal Retirement
Reduction Study
Development of Base Case Assumptions and
Scenarios
PNUCC Meeting
October 15, 2014
1
Todays Outline
 Base Assumptions
 Review Backcast Status
 Backcast Clean up Items
 Review Backcast Results
 Forecast Status
2
Study Basic Assumptions
 Assume resources retirement in Northwest
 Base Case: Centralia (1,340 MW)
 Scenario 1: Plus Colstrip 1&2 (614 MW)
 Scenario 2: Scenario 1 + 600 MW of Wind in Montana
 Replacement capacity:
 Generic Combine Cycle (CC): F-Frame CC consisting of
330 MW of CC and 50 MW of duct fired burner (DB)
 Boardman is replaced by an additional G-Frame CC in
the Boardman area
3
Years to Run
 Backcast: Consistent transmission and generation
outages in all three years (2010, 2014 & 2017)
 Coal Study: Generic seasonal generation outages
Backcast
Comparison
Coal Study
2010
Yes
No
2014
Yes
No
2017
Yes
Yes
2017 w/Coal
Retirement
No
Yes
4
Notes
Includes Coal retirement,
CA Once Through Cooling,
and announced re-powers
Status of Backcast
 Completed:
 Created major maintenance patterns for 2010 based on
CEMS data
 Date
shifted 2010 maintenance into 2014 and 2017
 Used WECC maintenance for Nuclear units plus maintenance
at minor units

Have cleaned up some path definition issue
 Will


check additional paths as needed
Fuel cost for 2010, 2014, and 2017
Review of existing and under constructed supply
5
Status of Backcast
 To Do:
 Clean up congestion issues



Currently Boundary is backing off 236 GWh in Jun and placing that
generation in July and August
Check for LMP issues at generators
Clean up/investigate path flow on:
 Path
4 & 5: West of Cascades – North and South
 Path 6: West of Hatwai


Pull CA imports for 2014 to compare to 2014 run
Apply bidding to backcast supply
6
List Of Top Congestion Interfaces
Top Congestion Cost in 2010 Backcast
Interface Name
1 WALC BLYTHE - SCE BLYTHE 161 KV
2 IPP DC LINE
3 TOT 5 (West to East Colorado)
4 SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1)
5 w Path 66 COI
6 NORTHWEST - CANADA
7 w_Path_65_PDCI
8 Alberta - British Columbia
9 Interstate WA-BC West
10 TOT 3 (Wyoming to Colorado)
11 W_Alberta-BCO
12 W_BCO-NWPP_R
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Annual
10,331
0
0
0
2,957
0
834
642
0
0
573
255
17,414
947
1,235
0
1,980
0
1,204
109
0
0
640
192
15,176
421
1,032
0
2,326
0
235
917
0
0
1,042
1,048
16,123
0
1,877
0
1,621
0
1,186
596
0
0
1,076
730
14,585
0
330
17
2,584
0
2,064
86
0
0
827
1,200
45,889
488
14,038
11,129
4,609
1,160
3,431
1,511
295
9,468
231
1,331
51,850
1,772
16,715
7,541
3,285
0
3,095
800
0
5,178
1,234
984
28,746
0
3,122
12,470
2,486
0
1,743
3,629
0
0
1,487
1,094
15,691
0
730
3,382
2,523
23,317
1,445
3,543
14,684
0
1,536
1,648
9,232
10,689
0
0
3,338
2,002
618
457
2,011
0
978
1,398
7,809
78,661
33
0
2,822
0
1,270
209
0
0
879
521
7,531
755
47
1
1,995
0
1,365
4,805
0
0
238
231
240,377
93,732
39,160
34,541
32,526
26,479
18,489
17,304
16,991
14,646
10,742
10,632
 Check for modeling issues related to congestion on
interfaces, branches and generator
interconnections
7
Path 8 Montana to Northwest Flow
8
Path 6 Hatwai
9
Path 5 West of Cascades – North&South
10
Path 66 & 65 Flow (COI + PDCI)
11
Path 66 COI Flow
COI is showing
$32M of
congestion
(on page 7)
12
Path 65 PDCI Flow
13
CA Import: COI + PDCI + WOR
14
Forecast To Do List
 Select location for replacement capacity
 Centralia, North of Seattle Area and Stanfield (McNary to
Boardman)
 Check retirement and replacement capacity:
 ST-Coal
 California OTC
 Create maintenance outage
 Create load files
 Create fuel cost
 Propose using same cost as 2017
 Model CA Clean Air Initiative (AB 32)
15
Kevin Harris
ColumbiaGrid
[email protected]
(503) 943-4932
16
Appendix
17
Study Objectives
 Main focus; Identify grid impacts

Identify potential flow issue associated with replacement
capacity of potential coal retirement in the Northwest
 Outside the scope of this study
System reliability (stability, Var, frequency responses etc)
 Projects evaluation (transmission, plant, technology)

 Key factors to be monitored
Power flow (congestion, utilization, limitations etc)
 Prices

18
Study Approach – Basic Assumptions
 Assume resources retirement in Northwest
 Base Case: Centralia (1,340 MW)
 Scenario: Plus Colstrip 1&2 (614 MW)
 Assume replacement capacity to be:
 Equivalent to retired coal capacity
 Same base sizes at varied locations
 Replacement capacity:
 Generic Combine Cycle (CC): F-Frame CC consisting of
330 MW of CC and 50 MW of duct fired burner (DB)
 Boardman is replaced by an additional G-Frame CC in
the Boardman area
19
Study Approach – Basic Assumptions
 Locations of replacement capacity:

Centralia area (I-5 between Seattle and Portland)

North of the greater Seattle area and south of Canadian
boarder

Stanfield (McNary through Boardman area)
20
Base Case
 Centralia retirement: 1,340 MW
 Equaling replacement capacity: 4 x generic
CC (4x330 MW CC):=1,320 MW

It would include 200 MW of DB for a net CC of 1,520 MW
 Proposed Base Case:
Case
Abbrv
Centralia No of SEA
Base 1
B1
4
0
0
Base 2
B1
3
1
0
Base 3
B2
2
0
2
21
Stanfield
Sensitivity 1 - Colstrip
 Potential retirement of Colstrip 1&2: 620
MW
 Equaling replacement capacity: 2 x generic
CC (2x330 MW CC):=660 MW

It would include 100 MW of DB for a net CC of 760 MW
 Proposed Base Case:
Case
Used
Base
Centralia No of SEA
Stanfield
1a
B1
1
0
1
1b
B2
0
1
1
1c
B3
0
0
2
22
Sensitivity 1 - Colstrip
 Net unit by area for sensitivity 1
Case
Used
Base
Centralia No of SEA
Stanfield
1a
B1
5
0
1
1b
B2
3
2
1
1c
B3
2
0
4
23
Sensitivity 2 – Montana Wind
 Montana Wind Sensitivity assumes:
 Retirement of Colstrip 1 & 2
 Replacement capacity installed in WA/OR
 Assume 600 MW of wind is installed in Montana
 Path ratings are assumed to remain the same
 Changes to Special Protection Scheme (SPS), additional
system changes or associated cost are not considered in
the analyst
 Net CC units installed by:
Case
Used
Base
Centralia No of SEA
Stanfield
2b
1b
3
2
1
2c
1c
2
0
4
24