KS4 Maths Lesson Plan
Experimental Probability
Lesson provided by Peter Heaney
Background
Probability and its application provides the opportunity for students to consider both the
abstract and concrete aspects of maths simultaneously. It is a challenging topic where a
range of skills and aptitudes can be identified and developed. This lesson assumes that
students are familiar with the basic concepts and language of probability, including relative
frequencies.
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Aim
The aims of the lesson are to ensure that students are able to:
• differentiate experimental from theoretical probability
• interpret data to make informed judgements about the likely outcomes of events
• recognise the different applications of calculation
and estimation.
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The activity
Probability is an interesting area, however the
application can be challenging. Boardworks
KS4 Maths ‘Experimental Probability’
presentation provides a clear introduction
to the difference between experimental and
theoretical probability.
Use slide 2 from the ‘Experimental Probability’
presentation (free to download), to introduce/
consolidate the distinction between theoretical
and experimental probability.
Experimenta
l Probability
, Slide 2
Develop this core content by working through slide
3 (free to download). This slide forms the basis for class
discussion and demonstration as students are asked whether they
would classify each of the statements as either theoretical or experimental probabilites.
Get students to record their selections on mini whiteboards, flashcards or paper, then use
the ‘check’ function after each categorisation to check the answers.
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KS4 Maths Lesson Plan
Experimental Probability
As extension work, students could be asked to calculate
the relative frequencies for the events which they have
sorted into the theoretical probability box.
Use slide 4 (free to download) on the Monte Carlo
method to provide the platform for a whole-class
discussion based on a teacher demonstration of
this specific application of probability.
Student activity
Students are then set the task of designing a
Experimenta
simple game using a pair of dice:
l Probability
, Slide 4
• The game involves them rolling two dice together and adding the scores obtained from each of the dice.
• Students are then asked to determine the theoretical probabilities of obtaining each of the possible scores from 2 to 12.
• They are then asked to check their theoretical probabilities by comparing them to the experimental probabilities from 50 trials.
• Ask students to evaluate the affect these probabilities will have on the game they have designed.
Taking it further
For homework, print slide 5 (free to download)
and ask students to calculate the probability of
winning the car if they do, or do not, change their
choice. Which is the most effective strategy?
In the next lesson, use slide 6 (free to download)
to investigate this problem and evaluate
students’ responses to the homework. This
slide allows students to investigate the problem
experimentally.
Or
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Experimenta
l Probability
, Slide 5
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KS4 Maths Lesson Plan
Experimental Probability
Outcomes
By the end of the lesson students should have achieved the following learning outcomes:
• Be able to distinguish between theoretical and experimental probability.
• Have gained experience in setting up an experiment.
On completion of the lesson, students will also have the necessary core knowledge to
progress towards understanding how to calculate the probability of mutually exclusive,
independent and combined events.
Or
Boardworks Ltd
The Gallery
54 Marston Street
Oxford, OX4 1LF
d
r FREE Sampl
You
eD
r
e
i
interactive
Inspiring, re for teachers
wa
soft
whole-class
c
Sample Dis
400
0845 0 300
k
sc
t: 0845 0 300 400
f: 0845 0 300 200
[email protected]
www.boardworks.co.uk