Yawn Contagion Rohan Kapitany, University of Queensland, Australia [email protected] Abbreviated Introduction and summary of goals: The three goals of this investigation are: Exactly how contagious are yawns? For how long is it appropriate to consider a spontaneous yawn a ‘trigger’? And how often do we miscategorise a spontaneous yawn (which necessarily must occur at a base frequency) as a contagious yawn? I first present an Agent-Based Model in depth, then provide data the model produces based on informed (but hypothetical) input. Second, I present a behavioural study closely matched to the model’s design in order to ground both the input and output. Finally, I present results, by matching real yawning data to the agent-based model of yawning in order to address (and resolve) empirical and theoretical questions associated with the topic of contagious yawning. THIS IS NOT THE FINAL FORM OF WRITTEN INFORMATION. IT IS PROVIDED HERE TO CLEARLY DESCRIBE THE METHODS AND PROCEDURES. IT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A DRAFT COPY. WHILE THE FORM AND EXPRESSION MAY CHANGE BETWEEN REGISTRATION AND PUBLICATION, THE INTEGRITY OF THE METHODS AND PROCEDURES WILL NOT BE ALTERED. Methods: The Model We used NetLogo to create our computer model (Wilensky, 1999). NetLogo is an Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) language which allows authors to program virtual environments populated by agents who follow specific rules. The following overview is in accordance with the ‘Standard Protocol’ for report ABMs, as described by Grimm et al. (2006) Overview of the Model Purpose of the Model The purpose of the model was to create a simulation in which agents yawn, where those yawns could cause other agents to yawn. Importantly, this model specifies a base-rate likelihood that an agent will yawn, allowing us to quantify what proportion of ‘contagious yawns’ were actually spontaneous yawns that only appear to be ‘contagious’. We term these ‘incidental yawns’ – yawns which are actually spontaneous, but by virtue of the timing to ‘trigger yawns’ are miscategorised. Additionally, this model allows us to quantify the ‘contagion factor’ of a yawn (i.e., how many more times an agent is to yawn in response to observing a trigger). Variables of the Model A global variable is a variable applicable or accessible to all agents in the model. This model has 4 global variables, each described in Table Z. In addition to global variables, each agent ‘owns’ one idiosyncratic variable called ‘latent-yawn’. This variable is based on the ‘Yawn-Latency’ variable. After an agent yawns it sets it’s ‘latent-yawn’ variable to the value of the ‘yawn-latency’. Each tick of the model this value decreased until it reach 0, at which point it ceased to influence other agents who could ‘see’ it. Table Z. A description of global variables used in the agent-based model of contagious yawns. Variable Description Base-Rate This value specified how likely (%) an agent was to yawn on any given tick (or ‘minute’) of the model (e.g., 1.66% chance to yawn per tick = 1 yawn per hour).* Contagion-Factor This value determines to what extent the Base-Rate is modified when an agent ‘observes’ a yawn (e.g., a contagion-factor 2.00 would increase the base-rate to 3.32).* Sees-how-many This value determines how many other [immediately adjacent] agents each agent can ‘see’. This value can be set from 0 to 28. Our behavioural experiment will focus on 8 immediately-neighbouring others. Yawn-latency This value determines how long a ‘spontaneous’ yawn can influence those who observed it. It corresponds theoretically to ‘minutes’.* *In section 3 we will attempt to fit these value based on our behavioural data. Process overview and Scheduling This is an exceptionally simple Agent-Based Model. The environment itself does not influence the agents, and as such, there are no variables to describe. Time proceeds in ‘ticks’ (analogous to minutes). The order of operations in which the agents act within the world is also simple: 1. Any agent who yawned on the previous tick (red agents) turns blue. The patch on which this agent sits turns black. 2. Agents reduce their ‘latent-yawn’ value by 1. 3. Agents calculate whether they yawn on this tick, and if appropriate, they yawn (and set their ‘latent-yawn’ value correspondingly). Design Concepts The model described thus far calculates the likelihood of a given agent yawning in any given ‘tick’. The model asks each of the 1024 agents in random order to calculate this value in turn. To calculate a yawn each agent generates a randomfloating number between 0 and 99.999… (e.g., 65.2432 or .0396). If this randomly generated number is less than the base-rate (e.g., 1.666), then the agent spontaneously yawns. Agents who had neighbours yawn before their opportunity to calculate their own yawn have their base-rate probability influenced by the contagion-factor. If the contagion-factor is set to 1.75 (for example), then the baserate for that agent becomes 2.9155. If the random number is less than this [increased] value the agent yawns, but the yawn is only considered a ‘contagious yawn’ if the value is greater than the base-rate and less than the base-rate multiplied by the contagion-factor (e.g., 2.0132). Contagious yawns are represented by a yellow patch. If the random number is less than the base-rate (i.e., falling below the threshold of the unaltered base-rate; e.g., 1.4448) the agent yawns, but it is considered an ‘incidental yawn’ (and is represented by a white patch). Incidental yawns are yawns that would have occurred independent of the observation of a neighbours’ yawn. A latency of x ticks means agents are influenced by the observation of a yawning neighbour for a duration of ticks equal to this value. See Figure X. Figure X. Example of visual output of the Yawn Contagion Model. Note: Blue agents are agents who are not yawning. Red agents are yawning (1). Agents surrounded by yellow are agents who are yawning contagiously as a result of a yawn on this tick (2) or on a previous tick (4). Agents with a white background are agents who are spontaneously yawning in proximity to a preceding yawn on this tick (2) or a previous tick (3) - these would ordinarily be counted as contagious yawns, when they are, in fact, ‘incidental’. This world wraps horizontally and vertically, such that agents on the left threshold are functionally adjacent to agents on the right, and the agents on the top are adjacent to agents on the bottom. Model Data In order to demonstrate how the model works, the data it produces, and the potential extent of the operational problems in the yawning literature, we generated some data based on hypothetical input values. We assumed all agents were able to ‘see’ 8 other agents (as per the proposed behavioural experiment; see ‘Methods: The Behavioral Experiment’). The simulation was run assuming yawns were contagious, and again assuming they were not. As noted by Demuru and Palagi (2012) and Norscia & Palagi (2011), it is standard to count any yawn as ‘contagious’ if it occurs within 5-minutes of a ‘trigger’ yawn. We ran our model using 3 yawn-latencies (1-minute, 3-minutes, and 5-minutes) over a total of 120 simulated minutes. Latency corresponds both to the amount of time an agent will actually be susceptible to a contagious yawn, and the time in which it may be classified as contagious/incidental. The simulation was run 25 times for each set of values. Results are described in Table Xa and Xb. Naturalistic research has shown that, on average, people yawn up to once an hour (Zilli et al., 2007) but experimental rates vary considerably (Baenninger & Greco, 1991; Provine, 1986) Table Xa. Hypothetical Data: 120-simulated minutes, with no contagion, and a Base-Rate = 1.666% (simulated 25 times). Mean Incidental Mean Contagious Mean Spontaneous Mean Total Percent Incidental Percent Spontaneous Latency 1 2.4 (1.47) 0 14.48 (3.54) 16.88 (3.87) 14.22% 85.78% Latency 3 4.96 (2.72) 0 12.84 (3.52) 17.8 (4.48) 27.87% 72.13% Latency 5 8.88 (2.12) 0 9.44 (4.78) 18.32 (4.51) 48.47% 51.53% Table Xb. Hypothetical Data: 120-simulated minutes, with contagion of 1.5x, and a Base-Rate = 1.666% (simulated 25 times). Mean Incidental Mean Contagious Mean Spontaneous Mean Total Percent Percent Incidental Spontaneous Latency 1 3.52 (1.81) 9.6 (2.68) 15.32 (2.44) 28.44 (4.43) 12.38% 53.87% 33.76% Latency 3 7.16 (2.36) 9.48 (2.62) 9.36 (3.01) 26.00 (5.35) 27.54% 36.00% 36.46% Latency 5 11.96 (3.83) 9.36 (2.55) 6.4 (2.16) 27.72 (5.10) 43.15% 23.01% 33.77% If we assume the extreme null hypothesis (that yawns are not contagious, and the appearance of contagion is an illusion), and assuming a 1 minute latency, then 14.22% of all yawns would be incidental, but would otherwise be incorrectly Percent Contagious categorized as a contagious. This value explodes to 48.87% if we assume yawns are contagious for 5 minutes. If yawns are contagious (as the evidence suggests) then the true rate of contagious yawns (at 1 minute latency) is 33.76%, with 12.38% of all yawns being incidental (and miscategorised as contagious). With a 5-minute latency we are wrong more often than we are right, with 43.15% of yawns being incidental and only 33.77% being contagious. Put another way, with a 1-minute latency, there is a 3 in 4 chance that a contagious yawn is actually a contagious yawn. With a 5-minute latency, there is a less than 1 in 2 chance that it is actually contagious. Critically, if yawns are actually contagious for 1 minute, but we incorrectly assume that yawns are contagious for longer, then these values explode. If we assume yawns are contagious for longer than they really are, then the true rate of contagion stays constant at around 1/3rd (as per Table Xb), but the proportion of incidental yawns increases from a 12.38% (for 1-minute latency) to 33.52% (for a 3minute latency) and to 40.31% (for a 5-minute latency). Note that this values are very similar to the values in Table Xb, but are theoretically different – the data in Table Y (below) do not allow [true] contagious yawns to cause other contagious yawns (whereas, in Table Xb, this relationship is possible). Table Y. Hypothetical Data: 120-simulated minutes, with contagion of 1.5x and a Base-Rate = 1.666% (simulated 25 times), but with a true contagious latency of 1. Incident Latency 3 Incident Latency 5 Mean Incidental Mean Contagious Mean Spontaneous Mean Total Percent Incidental Percent Spontaneous Percent Contagious 9.44 (3.15) 9.16 (3.50) 9.56 (2.27) 28.16 (5.05) 33.52% 33.95% 32.53% 11.56 (3.07) 9.56 (2.71) 7.56 (3.11) 28.68 (5.12) 40.31% 26.36% 33.33% Discussion The rate at which spontaneous yawns are miscategorised as contagious, when they are actually incidental, is non-trivial. This is true assuming the extreme null hypothesis (that yawns are not contagious), assuming yawns truly are contagious, as well as assuming they are contagious and our understanding of their latency is incorrect. Due to the fact that no study has empirically quantified the degree to which a yawn makes another susceptible to yawning, the modest value of 1.5 was selected – observing a yawn makes one only 50% more likely to yawn than they would ordinarily. However, the rate of 1-yawn an hour broadly corresponds to work by Zilli et al. (2007) who asked participants to record the frequency of their yawning over many days. The model does not assume relatedness or social connectedness between agents, even though this has been shown to influence susceptibility. Our corresponding behavioural experiment is setup such that it also bears these assumptions. Conservatively, our model assumes all agents are susceptible to contagious yawns, even though research shows that only about 50% of people actually are. If our model were to correctly assume this fact, it follows that the Type 1 rate would skyrocket. Finally, our model treats instances in which an agent observes more than 1 yawn before they calculate whether they yawn as nonadditive – an assumption unaddressed by the empirical literature. Methods: The Behavioral Experiment Participants Participants were undergraduate students at a large Australian University who received course credit in exchange for their time. Experimental Design and Protocol This was a within-subjects design with two levels of one factor. Participants sat listening to an audio programme on their personal devices while wearing a blindfold, or not wearing a blind-fold. Participants were tested in groups of 9 [provide mean/mode here]. Upon arrival they were asked to sit in chairs arranged in a circle facing inwards (thus, each participant could see 8 others when not wearing a blind-fold). They were told they would be asked to remain seated for the duration of the experiment. Then they were asked to download/stream [classical music] and listen to it using earphones on their personal devices (iPhones, Androids, etc.). This was done for two reasons, 1) in the event that someone yawned during the blind-fold condition, the earphones would prevent them from hearing it (which has been shown to elicit a contagious yawn; REF), 2) it would ensure that participants interest levels were comparable. The order of blind and non-blind conditions was counterbalanced over testing sessions. After X-MINUTES [APPROXIMATELY HALF THE STUDY TIME] of the first session participants were asked to pause their podcasts and either remove/don their blindfolds (according to condition). At the completion of the testing session (approximately 1 hour) participants filled out a brief survey assessing to what extent they found the programme interesting, how sleepy they were, their recollection of whether they yawned in the preceding hour, and self-report measures of their own tendency to yawn contagiously. While evidence shows that being observed moderates the rate of yawning, participants were subtly informed (in the written brief sheet) that they were being filmed. Two cameras were placed inconspicuously in the testing room. The experimenter sat at a remove from the group, facing a wall. At no point prior to the survey was any cue given that the experiment was about yawning (i.e., the experimenter did not yawn, and the recruiting and briefing process gave no indication as to the research topic). Behavioral Coding The lead author coded the behaviour of all participants based on the video data (available in full online at …). % OF VIDEOS WERE CODED BY INDEPENDENT CODERS. ALPHA = XX. Each time a participant yawned it was counted, and it’s timing recorded. Data was split by condition. Results Behavioral Results t-test on ‘interest’ of the programme. Should be null between session 1 and session 2. t-test on non-blind yawns that occurred in part 1 vs part 2 t-test on blind-fold yawns that occurred in part 1 vs part 2 o If blind-yawns are sig higher in part 2 vs part 1 it could be that a) yawns remain contagious for a very long time (or at least, yawns prime further yawns even if they don’t lead to ‘contagion’), or b) participants are just more tired/bored in part 2 than part 1, if so… t-test on all yawns in part 1 vs part 2. If part 2 is greater than part 1, then it’s not that yawns are long-term contagious, it’s that sitting down for that long increases yawning behaviour. Base-rate frequency of average spontaneous yawns (yawns/per min) reported (blind condition). Frequency of yawns (yawns/per min) in the non-blind condition. 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