How can we show that Utility is Relative? Andrew Clark. Paris School of Economics. http://www.pse.ens.fr/clark/ There is great, and growing, interest in the idea of “relative utility”, where some components of the utility function are evaluated relative to some comparison level. U = U(x, x*). Where du/dx > 0, du/dx* < 0. see: Clark, A.E., Frijters, P., & Shields, M. (2008). "Relative Income, Happiness and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles". Journal of Economic Literature, Forthcoming. However much we like the idea of relative utility, it’s actually not that easy to demonstrate. A number of approaches: 1) 2) 3) 4) Survey data on Behaviour: x=f(x*,….). Survey data on Utility: U=U(x, x*). Is Satisfaction Utility? NeuroEconomics. Look at brain reactions. Experimental. Probably the two most important problems to be faced in this literature are those of the Manski critique and definition of the reference group. Manski critique. Observation of two individuals behaving similarly (i.e. of x=f(x*,….)) does NOT prove social interactions, as individuals could face similar constraints (incomes, prices, availability), or have similar preferences (birds of a feather stick together). Who’s in the reference group? We have no idea. Here are some ideas. * Peer group/people like me * Others in the same household * Spouse/partner * Myself in the past * Friends * Neighbours * Work colleagues * “Expectations” Our results re: relative utility will be wrong if we have the wrong reference group. How can we be sure that we have the right reference group? - Ask individuals to whom they compare (European Social Survey, Wave 3, 2007). An Aside: Is Modelling Behaviour Really a Panacea? Behaviour often reflects the intersection of supply and demand, whereas we are interested in individuals’ preferences. Under certain technical restrictions (think separability for example), your behaviour may affect my utility, but will not affect my behaviour. This happens if my utility function writes out as Ui = f(xi) + g(xj), where f’(.)>0 and g’(.)<0. Note that both problems (the Manski critique and the definition of the reference group) can be circumvented in an Experimental approach, where the reference group is defined exogenously (via revelation of information). Thus it is a) not chosen endogenously by individuals, and b) we control the revelation of information so that we are sure which reference group is pertinent. Neuroeconomics is one way of revealing evidence of relative utility experimentally: here our outcome measure is brain activity. Fließbach, K., Weber, B., Trautner, P., Dohmen, T., Sunde, U., Elger, C., & Falk, A. (2007). "Social comparison affects reward-related brain activity in the human ventral striatum". Science, 318, 1305-1308. MRI techniques used to measure the brain activity of pairs of individuals engaged in identical tasks (guessing the number of dots on a screen). Each individual’s ensuing monetary reward is announced to both subjects, and both absolute and relative payments were varied. The results with respect to the ventral striatum show that relative income is significantly correlated with blood oxygenation in the brain. In fact, brain activity is completely relative in this respect, as there is no significant role for absolute income levels once relative income is introduced. A more common approach is experiments where the outcome measure is some kind of behaviour or decision. This is the approach taken in the paper I’ll discuss here. However, I’m not really an experimentalist, and I like survey data. So our paper combines the analysis of experimental and survey data. Amazingly enough, they produce the same results. Effort and Comparison Income Experimental and Survey Evidence Andrew Clark (CNRS, PSE) David Masclet (CNRS, CREM) Marie-Claire Villeval (CNRS, GATE) 1. Motivation Impact of comparisons on behavior on financial markets (Campbell and Cochrane 99), criminal activity (Glaeser, Sacerdote and Sheinkman 96), well-being (Ferrer-i-Carbonell 05, Luttmer 05, Brown, Oswald et al. 05) Impact of comparisons on labor market behavior (Galizzi and Lang 98, Neumark and Postlewaite 98, Stark and Taylor, 91)…. … But little is known about their impact on effort behavior (Frank 84) Our hypothesis: effort does not only depend on the absolute wage but also on wage comparisons Idea of social comparisons seductive but conclusive empirical proof of their existence has been elusive due to (at least) two difficulties: To whom does the individual compare? Identification problem – common unobserved environmental factors (Manski, 93) 2 strands in the literature on social interactions: Utility: Ui=U(ai,aj,…) for ji estimated by an indirect utility function: Vi=V(yi,yj,…) for ji (Clark and Oswald, 1996, Clark, 2003) Behavior: ai*=f(aj,…) (Sacerdote 01; Aronsson et al. 99; Fortin, Lacroix et al. 04, Arcidiano et al 05) Our approach brings these two together by considering behavior as a function of both absolute and relative income ai=a(yi,yj,…), estimated by ai 0 yi y j ' X i i Our questions Q1 : Does worker’s effort depend on how much other workers earn? Q1’: Does it depend on their rank in the distribution of income? ei=e(yi, y*,…) + Little evidence of the influence of others’ incomes on effort (Charness and Kuhn, 2005; Güth et al. 2001; Gächter and Thoeni, 2005): wage compression despite a weak effect of others’ incomes on agents’ behavior Q2: Are comparisons horizontal (to others) or also vertical (intertemporal; to oneself in the past)? 2. Empirical strategy Joint use of a lab experiment based on a gift-exchange game and survey data from the 1997 International Social Survey Program Experimental data: A direct measure of the willingness to contribute Better control of the reference group Survey data: Questions related to the willingness to exert effort Large sample size with employed people Possibility of cross-country comparisons Offers a potential check of the external validity of experimental data Still unusual (Fehr et al. 03; Brown et al. 05, Carpenter and Seki 05, Cummings et al. 05) A lab experiment with between-firm comparisons Benchmark Treatment: Gift-Exchange Game N=20 subjects, with 10 firms and 10 a priori similar employees Stage 1: After being randomly matched with an employee, the firm offers w 20,21,...,120 a contract Stage 2: The employee accepts or rejects In case of rejection, both earn 0 In case of an acceptance, choice of level of effort ei 0.1,0.2,...,1 Convex cost function Effort e 0.1 Cost c(e) 0 0.2 1 0.3 2 0.4 4 0.5 6 0.6 8 0.7 10 0.8 12 0.9 15 1 18 Firm’s payoff: v we Employee’s payoff: with ‘transportation costs’=20 iE w c(ei ) 20 F i with v=120 Feedback to the employee: own payoff Information Treatment End of stage 1: employees (not firms) receive information on their reference group’s incomes before accepting the contract Information set: income levels of 4 other employees Theoretical predictions Same SPNE in both treatments: e*=0.1 => w*=20 Experimental procedures Regate software, GATE Lyon 120 participants from undergraduate classes in engineering and business schools 6 sessions (with 20 participants each): 2 sessions in the Benchmark Treatment (200 obs.) + 4 sessions in the Information Treatment (400 obs.) 10 repetitions with a Perfect Stranger matching protocol At each of the 10 periods, in the Info Treatment, the set of 5 incomes come from randomly chosen firms 80 different income distributions 60 minutes Average earnings: € 14. Show-up fee: € 5 Survey data: 1997 Work Orientations module of the International Social Survey Program (ISSP: http://www.issp.org) 11,987 individuals aged 16-65 in full or part-time jobs 17 countries Key variables: Earnings: individual, yearly earnings Weekly hours of work Discretionary effort at work (scaled from 1 to 5): “I am willing to work harder than I have to in order to help the firm or organization I work in to succeed” = Equivalent to effort in the experiment Country USA Canada Portugal Switzerland Denmark Great Britain Japan Hungary Czech Republic Norway East Germany West Germany Sweden Spain Poland Italy France Total Employees interviewed No. % 775 546 843 1 727 600 545 607 626 526 1 366 261 648 793 387 564 475 698 11 987 6.47 4.55 7.03 14.41 5.01 4.55 5.06 5.22 4.39 11.40 2.18 5.41 6.62 3.23 4.71 3.96 5.82 100.00 Mean Effort 3.93 3.75 3.71 3.65 3.64 3.63 3.62 3.60 3.60 3.59 3.59 3.52 3.42 3.35 3.26 2.96 2.85 3.55 ei=f(yi,y*, hi) Reference group income y* = average values by broad demographic groups (Leyden School- see van Praag and Frijters, 1999) Average earnings calculated by - Country (17) - Sex - Education: 3 groups (10 or fewer years of education / 11 to 13 / over 13 years education) - Age groups: 3 groups (16 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 65) 306 reference group income cells (= y*) Normalized earnings rank = 1- (rank in cell / #obs. in the cell) 3. Results Effort and Comparison Income In the experiment, employers do not care about social comparisons Average income = 53.56 (SD: 19.75) in the Benchmark Treatment 53.09 (SD: 20.04) Information The income - effort relationship is positive and steeper in the Information Treatment (Mann Whitney Tests) 0,9 0,8 Mean effort 0,7 0,6 0,5 Benchmark Treatment 0,4 Info Treatment 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 20-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 Wage 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-120 The rank-dependence of effort (Random-effect Tobit model) Effort is strongly correlated with own absolute income Effort increases with the rank in the income distribution Experiment: a rise in rank of 1 position increases effort as much as an income increase of 9.7%. Rank/income elasticity=0.49 ISSP: a 20% rank increase is worth $ 606 per month on average. Rank/income elasticity=1.6 Average reference group income has a significant influence only in the experiment => Comparisons are more ordinal than cardinal Effort and Comparisons over time Hypothesis: past exposure to higher incomes may reduce the utility associated with current income and decrease the current level of effort Not easy to test with field data because of the difficulty to ensure that ceteris paribus holds over long time-periods between waves. Experimental data ideally suited to test models of habituation: same environment over time Test: we estimate the influence of the running minimum and running maximum incomes and ranks on the current level of effort Inspired by the peak-end transformation in psychology (Redelmeier and Kahneman 96) Past income matters! (Random-effect Tobit on experimental data only) 4. Conclusion Both the experimental evidence and the ISSP data analysis show the importance of income comparisons on observable behavior Effort at work depends both on own income and on what others earn Income rank is a better predictor than average reference group income Income profile over time matters in itself; higher influence of relative demotions than promotions. Past best rank matters more than past best absolute income => Implications on mergers 1) Interpretation: Status seeking (Frank 85) drives effort behavior Alternative interpretations: -> Inequality aversion (Fehr and Schmidt 99, Bolton and Ockenfels 00)? (but why a stronger role for rank? Why an influence of the past?) -> Search for the fair wage (but why not more rejections over time? Why not care about worse wages in the past?) 2) Implications: comparisons blur the relationship between incentives and effort Incentive, selection and reciprocity effects vs. Crowding-out of intrinsic motivation (Frey, Gneezy and Rustichini), choking under pressure (Ariely, Loewenstein), threshold effects (Camerer) => we suggest to add wage comparisons as an additional vector Implications for the no. of ladders in a hierarchy and wage secrecy 3) Survey data and experimental evidence tell the same story A good signal for both the credibility of subjective measures and the external validity of lab experiments 4) Extensions Information on the distribution of contributions instead of income Information for firms about the income policy of other firms Other Implications: 1) Firms can trade off wages and status. 2) U=U(y, y*) or U=U(R(y))? A mean-preserving-spread in income has no effect on rank, but will affect relative income (rank-utility functions are less directly affected by inequality). 3) U=U(y, y*) or U=U(R(y))? Bilancini, E., & Boncinelli, L. (2007). "Ordinal vs Cardinal Status: Two Examples". University of Siena, Working Paper No. 512. Frank (AER, 1985) suggests that savings rise with income when rank income comparisons matter. Clark and Oswald (JPubEc, 1998) show that conformity in behaviour results from concave utility functions where relative outcomes matter. Neither result continues to hold when ordinal are swapped for cardinal utility functions.
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