Is It Possible to Reduce 80% of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions from Energy by 2050?
AAAS Panel Discussion
February 15, 2014
Global Decarbonization Studies: A Review
Peter Loftus
0
Studies/Scenarios Considered
A
US CCSP
IIASA
EMF-22
B
IEA
IEA
1
Studies/Scenarios Considered
C
Greenpeace/EREC
Worldwatch
Jacobson &
Delucchi
Brook
D
McKinsey
WWF
2
Carbon Emissions Targets
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Gt/year)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Actual
IEA Reference
Greenpeace/EREC
Jacobson &
Delucchi
WEO 450
CCSP
IEA Blue Map
WWF
Worldwatch
EMF22 ETSAP-TIAM
GEA
Brook
20
15
10
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
3
Total Primary Energy Demand Projections
Global Total Primary Energy Demand (TW-yr)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Actual
IEA Reference
Greenpeace/EREC
WEO 450
CCSP IGSM
CCSP MERGE
CCSP MiniCAM
IEA Blue Map
Worldwatch
EMF22 ETSAP-TIAM No, Full
EMF22 MiniCAM Base No, Full
GEA Mix
GEA Supply
WWF
Brook
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
2060
Implications of Total Primary Energy Demand Projections
Annual Change in Energy Intensity (5 Year Moving Average)
3%
2%
Actual global energy intensity
annual change
1%
0%
Sustained annual reduction in BAU plans (e.g.,
IEA Reference, GEA Baseline) and most
conservative plans (e.g., Brook, EMF22 ETSAPTIAM)
‐1%
‐2%
Sustained annual reduction in most aggressive
plans (e.g., Worldwatch, Greenpeace, CCSP)
‐3%
‐4%
‐5%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Projected Total Primary Energy Demand Breakdown
(Non-Biomass Renewables
includes hydro, wind, solar &
geothermal)
Projected 2030 Installed Power Generation Capacity
Jacobson & Delucchi
Worldwatch
WWF
Coal
Greenpeace/EREC
Coal/CCS
GEA Effic ency
Oil
Gas
GEA Supply
Gas/CCS
GEA Mix
Nuclear
CCSP MiniCAM
Hydro
CCSP MERGE
Variable
Other
CCSP IGSM
McKinsey ‐ Scenario B
Variable includes wind and solar
Other includes oil, biomass, geothermal and ocean
McKinsey ‐ Scenario A
WEO 450 i
IEA Reference
Actual 2009
0
5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
2030 Installed Capacity (GW)
Ranges of Projected Power Generation Capacity Additions