Concluding Observations
Political Science 61 /
Chicano/Latino Studies 64
Lecture 18
December 4, 2007
Second Exam
In class, December 6
Format
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Essay (67 percent of the grade)
Identifications (33 percent of the grade)
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Answer 3 of the 6 IDs (11 points each)
Define and identify a significance to the study of
minority politics
The Persistence of Racial
Politics
Persistence of racial bias among some in majority
population
Persistence of the legacies of past discrimination
1.
2.

“Second generation” remedies
Ongoing reinforcement of “minority” population
through immigration
3.
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Populations that bring divergent human capital and
need support to succeed
And, have lower than average rates of political
engagement challenging the vitality of pluralism
Challenge by Immigrant/
Minority Populations Has Been
True Throughout U.S. History
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What’s different today?
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Numbers
Leaders
New models of cross-group cooperation
These create the foundations for a new
racial/ethnic politics
But, require ongoing and increasing societal
investment (see Tienda article assigned for
today)
Numbers
Population Composition, 20002100 (current immigration levels)
80
70
60
Anglo
Black
Latino
Asian
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2050
2100
State Minority
Populations, 2000-2025
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
API
Latino
Black
Anglo
CA
2000
CA
2025
57
NY
2000
NY
2025
25
TX
2000
TX
2025
42
Growth Assumes
Continued Immigration

That would seem to be the path the U.S. is on

Proposals for a “guest worker” program and increased
border enforcement
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Little conversation about changing the level of
immigration to permanent residence

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If passed, will increase immigration
Passage in Congress will require support from moderate
Democrats, meaning some legalization
Without changes to law, eligibility for immigration to permanent
residence will increase over time
That said, if history is a model, at some point,
immigration will slow
Also Assumes Maintenance of
Current Race/Ethnic Definitions
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New dynamic – multiracial population
Currently small, but will grow

Intermarriage/relationship rates
Marriage
Opposite Sex
Unmarried
BlackWhite
3.93%
Asian-White
12.50%
HispanicWhite
14.01%
8.80%
34.14%
18.86%
Leaders
New Minority Elected
Leadership
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Since the passage of the VRA, energy has
been focused on electing leaders to office
Effects have been dramatic
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1970-2001, 520 percent increase in Black elected
officials nationally
1973-2004, 237 percent increased in Latino
officeholders in six states (AZ, CA, FL, NM, NY,
TX)
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1984-2004, 55 percent increase nationally
Black Elected Officials,
1970-2001
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1970
1980
1990
2001
Latino Elected Officials,
1973-2004
6000
Six states
5000
Nationally
4000
3000
1973-2004
change,
+237
percent
2000
1000
0
1973
1984
1996
2004
But,
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Blacks and Latinos hold only a small share of
elective offices nationally
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1.5 percent (1 in 66) nationally is Black
0.9 percent (1 in 111) nationally is Latino
Underrepresented even in large states,
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Black
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Mississippi – 18.9% officeholders (34% of population)
Alabama – 16.7% of officeholders (25% of population)
Latino
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New Mexico—32.0% officeholders (42.1% population)
Texas—7.3% officeholders (32.0% population)
California—5.2% officeholders (32.4% population)
Sources of the Next
Generation of Leadership
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Leaders of immigrant organizations
Community leaders seeking new venues
Local officeholders preparing to seek higher office
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Leaders in the right position at the right time
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Antonio Villaraigosa
Rocky Delgadillo
Condoleezza Rice
Bill Richardson
Routes to leadership not previously available –
business, the military, and universities
Opportunities for CrossGroup Alliance Around
Shared Issues
New Electoral Models of
Cross-Group Cooperation
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The Villaraigosa “coalition”
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The Obama presidential campaign
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An elite coalition that may form a mass coalition
Villaraigosa is now a national Latino leader – arguably
the first non-black “minority” spokesperson
Like Villaraigosa, he too is a national leader
Both national political parties now seeking minority
support
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Illinois 2004 Senate race
State parties (particularly Republicans) less likely to
reach out – four statewide black Republican candidates
in 2006
Other Institutions Also Creating
Cross-Group Coalitions
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Unions (in major cities) organizing immigrants and
workers
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Service sector unions critical to:
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Churches increasingly seeing growth from
immigrant communities
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Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles
Spring immigration rallies
Both Protestant and Catholic
Again, critical to spring rallies
Media, more ethnic specific, but an institution that
can be tapped to mobilize immigrant/ethnic
communities
Conclusions
Foundations of Future U.S.
Racial and Ethnic Politics
Legacies of the Civil Rights Movement
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Core goals of the movement succeeded
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Statutory exclusion unlawful
Minority voices at all levels of governance
“Second generation” protections under
challenge—courts, electorates, and legislatures
Foundations (2)
Large-scale immigration
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Will continue for foreseeable future
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Ongoing popular opposition (including among racial
and ethnic minorities)
But, immigration creates a unique coalition of
business, upper-income liberal voters, and ethnic
group leaders
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Shift national demographic balance
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Ends era of Black-White “minority” politics
Building on These
Foundations
Rights and gains can be taken away (lesson of
first part of course)
Demography isn’t destiny
1.
2.
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Numbers don’t guarantee representation/power
Coalition politics isn’t automatic
3.
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Ture and Hamilton model—groups form coalitions when
each sees it in its interest
Coalitions form around issues
Identities change over time
4.
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Today’s definitions of race/ethnicity will change
Pan-ethnic identities may be particularly fluid
Shaping the Future
Organization
Organization
Organization
Enough said?
1.
2.
3.
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The VRA guarantees that all groups will be able to
organize politically
Post-1965 immigration adds to the population to
organize
Minority communities now have a network of leaders
that will be hard to disassemble
But, racial/ethnic identity may be replaced by other
identities
If You Liked This Course …
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Political Science 124B – Latinos in U.S. Politics
Political Science 124D – Race and Citizenship in
America
Political Science 126A – Mexican Americans and
Politics
Political Science 126C – U.S. Immigration Policy
Special topics classes (offered regularly)
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
Black Politics
Asian American Politics