Presentation at 15th TRB Planning Application
Conference, Atlantic City, NJ, 5/17~21, 2015
Integrating Dynamic Traffic Assignment and
Agent-Based Travel Behavior Models for
Cumulative Land Development Impact Analysis
Lei Zhang1, Zheng Zhu2, Chenfeng Xiong2,
Xiqun Chen3, and Xiang He2
1. Associate Professor and Director of the National Transportation Center;
2. Graduate Student; 3. Research Scientist;
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Maryland
Contact: 301-405-2881; [email protected]
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
1
Background
Research Objectives
Integrate agent-based behavior model (AgBM) with
dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) to capture individual
behavior changes and traffic dynamics
Real-World Application:
Cumulative land development impact study along the I270 and MD 355 corridor in Montgomery, Maryland
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
2
Overview of Model Integration
Exogenous land use, policy, economic, and demographical changes
Time
Day t – 1
……
i+1
SILK AgBM
Agent i
Day t + 1
DTALite
Knowledge
Updating
Prior knowledge
and experience
No
Change
behavior?
Change mode
En-route diversion
Dynamic
re-routing
Change route
Change
Identify an
alternative
travel mode
travel experience
Minute-byminute travel
information
Subjective
Beliefs
Dynamic OD skim table t
Day t
schedule
Identify an
alternative
schedule
Dynamic
traffic
simulation
Identify an
alternative
travel route
Dynamic OD
skim t + 1
No
Switch to this
alternative?
No
Yes
Update
agent i
Agent List
Agent 1
Agent 2
Agent i
No active
agents?
Yes
Habitual agent behavior
Agent n
Time
End
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
3
Application in Maryland
MWCOG
Development
Forecasting
Static OD
07-08 Survey
End
Positive Model
Departure
Distribution
Yes
Switching
Dynamic OD
Slit
Population
Synthesizing
Convergence?
No
Searching
DTALite
Subarea Cut &
Calibration
SHA traffic data
Agents
Generation
Assignment
Knowledge
Updating
FFTT Calculating
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
4
Study Area
Legend
Freeway
Arterial
Subarea
MWCOG Coverage
MWCOG Model in DTAlite
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
5
2010 and 2030 Networks
2010
2030
Network
Mileage
2606
2686
# of intersections
789
802
# of trips
(million)
2.86
3.28
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
6
New Sector Plans along I-270
WASHINGTON GROVE
SHADY GROVE
Gaithersburg
Rockville
GREAT SENECA
SCIENCE CORRIDOR
Legend
SHADY GROVE
Sector Plans
Rockville
City Names
Road Way
Silver Spring
Bethesda
WHITE FLINT
GROSVENOR
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
7
Population Change 2010-2030
Total POP:
2010: 1,152,132
2030: 1,366,428
Legend
Subarea Population
Silver Spring
0 and below
0 - 2000
2000 - 4000
4000 - 6000
6000 and above
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
8
Employment Change 2010-2030
Total EMP:
2010 636,210
2030 785,083
Legend
Subarea Employment
0 and below
0 - 2000
2000 - 4000
4000 - 6000
6000 and above
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
9
Land Development Scenarios
2010 Base Case Scenario
2010 scenario without any sector plan development
2030 Scenario
2030 scenario with all sector plan developments
Only considers routing and traffic congestion changes
2030 Scenario After Behavior Switch
2030 scenario with all sector plan developments
Consider traffic congestion and all behavior changes
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
10
Overall Development Impact
Cumulative Development Impact of All Sector
Plans along the I-270/MD 355 Corridor
Year
2010
Base Case
2030 w.
Development
2030 After
Switch
Num. of
Trips
Avg. Travel
Time (min)
Avg. Travel
Time Index
Avg. Speed
(mph)
426,958
493,308
493,308
20.1
26.7 (33%)
24.5 (22%)
1.78
2.22 (25%)
2.05 (15%)
36.2
32.0 (-12%)
34.0 (-6%)
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
11
Traffic Congestion Comparison
2010 AM Density
2030 AM Density
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
12
Peak Spreading Impact
Overall Demand Pattern Change
4
x 10
3.5
3
# of Travelers
2.5
2
2010
2030
2030 After Switch
1.5
1
0.5
The Duration of the AM Peak Period will Increase by 45 Minutes.
0
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
Time
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
13
I-270 SB Travel Time by TOD
I-270 SB(2)
35
2010
2030
2030 After Switch
Travel Time (min)
30
25
20
15
10
5
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
Time
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
14
Changes in Destinations/Routes
Diverting from I-270 and MD 355 to ICC and I-495 (Southbound Traffic, AM Peak)
1: ICC
Legend
Through traffic
Diverting traffic
Unit: 1000 trips
2010
2030
Change
I-270 Thru
32.7
36.1
10%
MD355 Thru
4.5
6.0
32%
I-270 Divert
4.3
9.7
123%
MD355 Divert
1.1
2.9
170%
2010
2030
Change
I-270 Thru
25.2
25.8
2%
MD355 Thru
9.3
10.5
12%
I-270 Divert
14.0
13.0
7%
MD355 Divert
0.4
0.6
56%
2: I-495
Legend
Through traffic
Diverting traffic
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
15
Summary
An integrated modeling tool for individual or
cumulative land development impact analysis
(and ICM, ATM, and TSM&O applications)
Builds on 4-step travel demand, agent-based travel
behavior, and dynamic traffic assignment models
Considers local and regional traffic impact
Shows traffic impact by intersection, by corridor, by
subarea, and by time of day (min-by-min)
Incorporates behavior responses such as routing
change, traffic redistribution, peak spreading, and
modal shifts
Visualizes results with easy-to-understand graphs
and animation
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
16
Thank You!
Questions, Comments, and Suggestions are
Welcome. Please Contact:
Lei Zhang, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Director, National Transportation Center
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
1173 Glenn Martin Hall, University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 301-405-2881
Web: http://www.lei.umd.edu
Center: http://www.ntc.umd.edu
National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu
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