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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 1280–1284
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Research Note
Kondratieff waves in global invention activity (1900–2008)
Andrey Korotayev , Julia Zinkina, Justislav Bogevolnov
"System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics" Program, Russian Academy of Sciences, 30/1 Spiridonovka, Moscow 123001, Russia
article info
abstract
Article history:
Received 28 October 2010
Received in revised form 2 February 2011
Accepted 22 February 2011
Available online 24 March 2011
Our study has revealed an unusually clear K-wave pattern in the dynamics of the number of patents
granted annually in the world per 1 million of the world population. In general we see rather steady
increases in the number of patent grants per million during K-wave A-phases ("upswings"), and we
observe its rather pronounced decreases during K-wave B-phases ("downswings"). This pattern
apparently goes counter to the logic suggested by Kondratieff, Schumpeter and their followers who
expected the increases in the invention activities during B-phases and their decreases during A-phases.
However, this contradiction is shown to be only apparent. We suggest an explanation that accounts for
the detected pattern without contradicting the essence of Kondratieff–Schumpeter theory.
Keywords:
Technology
Long waves
Kondratieff waves
Global dynamics
Patents
World Intellectual Property Organization
© 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
A Russian economist writing in the 1920s, Nikolai Kondratieff observed that the historical record of some economic indicators then available to
him appeared to indicate a cyclic regularity of phases of gradual increases in values of respective indicators followed by phases of decline [1–6]; the
period of these apparent oscillations seemed to him to be around 50 years.
Kondratieff himself identified the following long waves and their phases (see Table 1).
The subsequent students of Kondratieff cycles identified additionally the following long waves in the post-World War I period (see Table 2).
2. Mechanisms of K-wave dynamics. "Cluster-of-innovation" hypothesis
A considerable number of explanations for the observed Kondratieff wave (or just K-wave [11,22]) patterns have been proposed. As at the initial
stage of K-wave research the respective pattern was detected in the most secure way with respect to price indices, most explanations proposed during
this period were monetary, or monetary-related. For example, K-waves were connected with the inflation shocks caused by major wars [23–25]. Note
that in recent decades such explanations went out of fashion, as the K-wave pattern stopped to be traced in the price indices after World War II
[10,26].
Kondratieff himself accounted for the K-wave dynamics first of all on the basis of capital investment dynamics [5,6,27]. This line was further
developed by Jay W. Forrester and his colleagues [28–31], as well as by A. van der Zwan [32], Hans Glisman, Horst Rodemer, and Frank Wolter
[33] etc.
However, in the recent decades the most popular explanation of K-wave dynamics was the one connecting them with the waves of technological
innovations.
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Korotayev).
0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.011
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A. Korotayev et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 1280–1284
1281
Table 1
Long waves and their phases identified by Kondratieff.
Long wave number
Long wave phase
Dates of the beginning
Dates of the end
One
A: upswing
B: downswing
A: upswing
B: downswing
A: upswing
B: downswing
"The end of the 1780s or beginning of the 1790s"
1810–1817
1844–1851
1870–1875
1890–1896
1914–1920
1810–1817
1844–1851
1870–1875
1890–1896
1914–1920
Two
Three
Kondratieff himself noticed that "during the recession of the long waves, an especially large number of important discoveries and inventions in
the technique of production and communication are made, which, however, are usually applied on a large scale only at the beginning of the next long
upswing" [4,6].
This direction of reasoning was used by Schumpeter [34] to develop a rather influential "cluster-of-innovation" version of K-waves theory,
according to which Kondratieff cycles were predicated primarily on discontinuous rates of innovation (for more recent developments of the
Schumpeterian version of K-wave theory see, e.g. [11,13,22,35–46]). Within this approach each Kondratieff wave is associated with a certain leading
sector (or leading sectors), technological system or technological style. For example the third Kondratieff wave is sometimes characterized as "the
age of steel, electricity, and heavy engineering. The fourth wave takes in the age of oil, the automobile and mass production. Finally, the current fifth
wave is described as the age of information and telecommunications" [45,46]; whereas the forthcoming sixth wave is sometimes supposed to be
connected first of all with nano- and biotechnologies [19,43].
3. Review of empirical evidence
After Kondratieff himself, the idea that breakthrough innovations' clustering should occur in line with the K-waves was first supported by
Schumpeter [34], but was then subject to severe criticism by Simon Kuznets [46]. It was only in the 1980s that Mensch [35] provided substantial
empirical evidence of an approximately 50-year rhythm in the introduction of major innovations into the market. Haustein and Neuwirth [47], Van
Dujin [48], and Kleinknecht [49] added substantial amount of additional empirical evidence in support of the Kondratieff–Schumpeter hypothesis.
Nevertheless, Silverberg and Verspagen [50], applying Poisson regression to their basic innovation series, stated that there was no innovation
clustering, but only overdispersion, and the idea of a long wave in economic life being driven by clusters of basic innovations "has stretched the
statistical evidence too far" [50].
On the other hand, Kleinknecht and van der Panne [51] have made an attempt to overcome the divergences of various basic innovation series
compiled by different scholars (as these divergences could well have had a significant impact upon the conclusions made). They applied three
variants of a weighting procedure to three basic innovation series independently compiled by van Dujin [48], Haustein and Neuwirth [47], and
Mensch [35], coming to conclude that with each version of weighting, "the differences in mean numbers of innovations for pre-defined periods are
highly significant", and "compared to the classical dating by Kondratieff, there is a 12 years lagged fluctuation in the innovation series" [51].
Thus, it is evident that there is still no unanimous agreement among the students of technological innovation dynamics with regard to the issue of
long waves in technological innovation dynamics.
4. Test, discussion, and conclusion
In order to re-test the Kondratieff–Schumpeter hypothesis on the presence of the K-waves in the world invention activities we have used the
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Statistics Database information on the number of patents granted annually in the world per 1
million of the world population in 1900–2008. For 1985–2008 WIPO publishes direct data on the total number of patent grants in the world per year
[52]. For 1900–1985 we calculated this figure by summing up the data for all
Table 2
"Post-Kondratieff" long waves and their phases.
Long wave number
Long wave phase
Dates of the beginning
Dates of the end
Three
A: upswing
B: downswing
A: upswing
B: downswing
A: upswing
B: downswing
1890–1896
From 1914 to 1928/29
1939–1950
1968–1974
1984–1991
?
From 1914 to 1928/29
1939–1950
1968–1977
1984–1991
?
?
Four
Five
Sources: [7–18]. For a discussion of the possible datings of the 5th K-wave see, e.g., [12,19–21].
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Number of patent grants per year
per million of the world population
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Fig. 1. Dynamics of number of patent grants per year per million of the world population, 1900–2008.
countries (provided by WIPO in a separate dataset [53]). Data on the world population dynamics was obtained from the databases of Maddison [54],
UN Population Division [55], and U.S. Bureau of the Census [56].
The results of our calculations are presented in Fig. 1.
It is easy to see that the figure above reveals an unusually clear K-wave pattern (note that a similar pattern has been detected in the dynamics of
patent applications by Plakitkin [57] who has not, however, appreciated that he is dealing here with K-wave dynamics). In general we see rather
steady increases in the number of patent grants per million during K-wave A-phases ("upswings"), and we observe its rather pronounced decreases
during K-wave B-phases ("downswings"). Thus the first growth period of the variable in question revealed by Fig. 1 more or less coincided (with a
rather slight, about 2–3 years, lag) with A-phase of the 3rd K-wave (1896–1929); it was only interrupted by World War I when the number of patent
grants per million experienced a precipitous but rather short decline, whereas after the war the value of the variable in question returned very fast to
the A-phase-specific trend line. The first prolonged period of decline of the number of patent grants per million corresponds rather neatly (except for
the above mentioned 2–3 years lag) to B-phase of this wave (1929–1945); the second period of steady increase in the value of the variable in
question correlates almost perfectly with A-phase of the 4th K-wave (1945–1968/74), whereas the second period of decline corresponds rather well
to its B-phase (1968/74–1984/1991); finally, the latest period of the growth of the number of patent grants per million correlates with A-phase of the
5th K-wave.
Note that most analyses of Kondratieff waves in technological innovation dynamics are done on more affluent and older national economies
[28,34,35,37]. Hence, one might have thought that Kondratieff pattern would be clearly present in the patent dynamics of particular countries, while
it is less likely to anticipate a world pattern. Thus, it might be a bit surprising to find that in the US patent dynamics the K-wave pattern is
significantly less pronounced than in the world dynamics (see Fig. 2, constructed on the basis of the same datasets as Fig. 1).
In fact the K-wave pattern is still rather visible here, but it is not as clear and regular as in the world invention dynamics (Fig. 1). This may be
largely accounted for by the point that there exists a whole range of factors (e.g., major changes in a country's patent legislation) which can have a
strong impact on a particular country's patent activity [58], but are smoothed over in the long-range world patent dynamics. Note that this
phenomenon of certain patterns (including K-wave ones) being traced more clearly for the world (rather than particular countries) has already been
described by us with respect to demographic, GDP, and urbanization dynamics [21,59–64].
Note, however, that this pattern apparently goes counter to the logic suggested by Kondratieff, Schumpeter and their followers who expected the
increases in the invention activities during B-phases and their decreases during A-phases. Yet, this contradiction is only apparent. Indeed, as we have
mentioned above in Section 2, Kondratieff maintains that "during the recession of the long waves, an especially large number of important
discoveries and inventions in the technique of production and communication are made, which, however, are usually applied on a large scale only at
the beginning of the next long upswing" [4] (our emphasis).
It has been suggested to distinguish between "breakthrough" inventions and "improving" inventions/innovations (e.g., [20]). Namely
breakthrough inventions during a B-phase of the given K-wave create foundations of a new technological system corresponding to a new K-wave; as
was suggested by Kondratieff, they find their large-scale application during A-phase of this new K-wave (based on this new technological system),
which is accompanied by a flood of improving innovations that are essential for the diffusion of technologies produced by breakthrough inventions
made during B-phase of the preceding K-wave [20,44].
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per million of the USA population
Number of patent grants per year
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Fig. 2. Dynamics of number of patent grants per year per million of the USA population, 1900–2008.
Note that the timing of periods of growth of the number of granted patents reflects mostly the increase in the number of improving innovations.
Indeed, within the total number of patents, only a negligible proportion was granted for breakthrough inventions (whose number is very small almost
by definition), whereas the overwhelming majority of patents was granted for numerous improving innovations. The exhaustion of the potential of the
technological system of the given K-wave leads to the decrease of the number of improving innovations that realize the potential provided by the
breakthroughs which created the respective technological system. On the other hand, this very exhaustion of the previous technological system's
potential for improvement creates powerful stimuli for the new breakthrough inventions. However, in no way does the increase in the number of
breakthrough inventions compensate for the dramatic decrease of the number of innovations improving the potential of the previous technological
system. Hence, on the basis of this logic there are theoretical grounds to expect that during K-wave B-phases the total number of inventions (and
patent grants) per 1 million of population should decrease, whereas during A-phases we should observe a pronounced increase in this number (as a
certain decrease in the number of breakthrough inventions is by far compensated for by a dramatic increase in the number of improving innovations)
(note that a similar reasoning suggesting the increase in the number of granted patents during A-phases and their decrease during B-phases has
already been proposed by Mensch [35], as well as by Devezas and Corredine [65]).
As we have seen, this is just the pattern that has been revealed by our test.
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Andrey Korotayev is the Head and Professor of the Department of Modern Asian and African Studies, Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow (since 2004) and Senior
Research Professor at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. At present, together with Askar Akayev and Georgy
Malinetsky, he coordinates the Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium Project "Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Global Dynamics". He is a laureate of the
Russian Science Support Foundation Award in "The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences" Nomination (2006).
Julia Zinkina is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium Project "Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Global Dynamics". Main research
interests: economic growth, dynamics of innovations, North Africa.
Justislav Bogevolnov is an Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Global Processes of the Moscow State University. Main research interests: fast phase transitions, emergence and
movement of interphase borders, system analysis and mathematical modeling of global dynamics.