The Value of Gartner
Allen Liao 廖銘仁
 學歷:
B. S. 清華大學核子工程系
M.S. Manufacturing Engineering, Syracuse University,
New York, USA
 經歷:
15 years in IT and High-Tech Manufacturing Industry
- 業務協理, Gartner Taiwan
- 專案經理, HP 顧問事業群, HP Taiwan & Singapore
- 資深顧問, SAP Taiwan
- Project Logistic & Global Supply Chain Leader, Ericsson
Taiwan
- 資材部經理, Ultima Electronics
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2
Agenda
- Gartner Company Profile
- Gartner Services
- Sample of Gartner Research & Deliverables
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3
Gartner Company Profile
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner,
TCO and ITxpo
areRights
registered
trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
©
2006 Gartner,
Inc. All
Reserved.
4
~Gartner made in 1998
E-Business Hype Cycle
Visibility
1998
We are here
E-Business Forever
Dot-com share fallout
E-Tailing
E-Business subsumed
into corporate DNA
Investor disillusionment
Optimized E-Business
Business
disillusionment
Dot-com starts
“True” E-Business emerges
Internet / WWW
1990-1996
Trigger
1997
1998
1999
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2000
2001
2002
Trough of
Disillusionment
5
2003
2004
2005
2006
Slope of
Enlightenment
2007
2008
Year
Plateau of
Productivity
Corporate Overview
Gartner. The leader in technology research.
 Trusted – 信賴的
 Objective – 客觀的
 Results-oriented – 結果導向的
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
6
Gartner Basic
 Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT)
 Founded in 1979
 Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A.
 Delivery : technology-related insight necessary for
our clients to make the right decisions, every day
 Client base:
- CIOs and other senior IT executives in corporations,
education institutions and government agencies
- Technology companies
- Investment community.
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
7
People Data
 Number of employees 3,900
 Number of analysts 650
 Number of consultants 550
 Number of quota-bearing salespeople 655
 Direct contact with clients: Yes
 ISO 9000,ISO 9001,ISO 12000
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
8
Client Data
 Number of countries where we have clients : 75
 Client organizations worldwide: 45,000 clients
representing 10,000 distinct organizations worldwide
 Client base:
- Technology sector is responsible for approximately 30% of
Gartner revenue
- Other sectors comprise 70% of Gartner revenue
 Fortune 1000 penetration 66%, Global 500 penetration
80%
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
9
University Clients

- U of California (USA)















- U of Chicago (USA)
- U of Cambridge (UK)
- U of Hong Kong (HK)
- Singapore Management University (Singapore)
- SUNY - Buffalo, Albany (USA)
- MIT (USA)
- U of Illinois (USA)
- U of London (UK)
- U of Michigan - Ann Arbor (USA)
- U of Minnesota (USA)
- U of Washington (USA)
- U of Wisconsin (USA)
- U of Israel (Israel)
- U of Berlin (Germany)
……etc
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
10
Gartner Services
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner,
TCO and ITxpo
areRights
registered
trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
©
2006 Gartner,
Inc. All
Reserved.
11
Gartner Delivers Insight Through
 Research
 Executive Programs
 Consulting
 Events
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
12
Gartner is in a unique position to deliver
insight you can’t find anywhere else.
10,000
Media
Inquiries
215,000
Client
Inquiries
2,000
Consulting
Engagements
75
Countries
66% of
Fortune 1000
80% of
Global 500
650
Analysts
70+
Conferences
17,000
Benchmarks
3,100
CIOs
45,000
Clients
Source: This data is accurate as of March 31, 2006.
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
13
“Gartner acts as an
extension to my staff
and as an intelligent
filter to the oceans
of information that
I need to track
and monitor. With
Gartner, I get
opinions that are
objective, unbiased
and candid.”
JOSEPH D. “JODY” GILES
CIO, Under Armour
Hype Cycles
Hype cycles help determine when a technology will pay off.
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
14
Magic Quadrants
Magic Quadrants help you position the leading players.
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
15
Example: Magic Quadrant for North America
ERP Service Providers, 2006
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
16
Sample of Gartner
Research & Deliverables
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gartner,
TCO and ITxpo
areRights
registered
trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
©
2006 Gartner,
Inc. All
Reserved.
18
Worldwide DRAM Forecast, 1Q07:
Who is Adding Capacity?
% New Cap. % Increase
4Q08 3Q06/4Q08
Billions of Megabytes
250
Others
Samsung
Micron
Qimonda
Hynix
Nanya
Elpida
Powerchip
ProMOS
26% 193%
200
21% 163%
150
26%
193%
100
19% 197%
50
8%
158%
100%
182%
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
4Q08
3Q08
2Q08
1Q08
4Q07
3Q07
2Q07
1Q07
4Q06
3Q06
2Q06
1Q06
0
19
Total
Regional Semiconductor Packaging
Materials Markets
2006E
$B
2007F
$B
%
Change
China
1.45
1.72
19%
Europe
0.51
0.56
10%
Japan
3.14
3.51
12%
Korea
2.21
2.54
15%
North America
0.38
0.34
-11%
Taiwan
3.59
3.97
11%
Southeast Asia
3.45
4.00
16%
Total Regions
14.73
16.64
13%
China
10%
Southeast
Asia
23%
Region
Europe
4%
Japan
21%
Taiwan
25%
North
America
2%
Korea
15%
2006 Estimate
= $14.7 Billion
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription March 2007
Totals may not add due to rounding
20
CIOs expect modest increases in their IT
budgets.
Anticipated average IT budget increase
Half of CIOs expect their budgets to increase an average of 4.9% while
30 percent expect no change and 20 percent expect an average decline
of 1.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
2002
2003
2004
Trend Line
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
21
2005
2006
2007
CIOs must to do more than control cost and
service quality to meet business expectations.
Top 10 CIO Strategies:
To what extent is each of the following a priority for you
in 2007?
2007
2006
2005
Delivering projects that enable business growth
1
1
1
Linking business and IT strategies and plans
2
2
2
Improving the quality of IS service delivery
3
7
7
Attracting, developing, and retaining IS personnel
4
5
**
Demonstrating the business value of IT
5
4
3
Providing new types of information (e.g.: analytics)
6
*
*
Developing or managing a flexible technology infrastructure
7
8
**
Improving IT governance
8
9
10
Building business skills in the IS organization
9
3
9
10
*
*
Leading change initiatives (involving more than IT)
* New question for 2007 ** New question for 2006
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
22
Ben Lee 李輔邦
 學歷:
B.A., 交通大學管理科學系
M.B.A.,交通大學管理科學研究所
 經歷:
17 years in Semiconductor Industry
- 首席分析師, Gartner Taiwan
-專案經理, 資策會 MIC
業務/行銷經理, Clevo Computer Inc. Taiwan
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
23
Taiwan Semiconductor
Industry –
Strength in Diversity
Ben Lee
Principal Analyst, Semiconductor AP
[email protected]
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
 Key Issues
- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan
through 2011? by applications, and by device…..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
25
Semiconductor Forecast: 2Q07 Update
Market Weakening
Billions of Dollars and Revenue Growth
$360
3Q06
$300
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
$222
24.6%
$240
$180
$293
8.7%
$156
1.4%
$237
7.3%
$263
10.2%
$314
7.2%
$316
0.9%
$337
6.6%
$269
2.5%
Revenue CAGR
06/11 = 5.1%
$178
14.5%
$120
$60
1Q07 
$222
24.6%
$235
5.7%
$260
10.7%
$276
6.4%
$299
8.2%
$306
2.2%
$326
6.7%
$352
7.7%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$0
2002
2003
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (May 2007)
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
26
WW Semiconductor Market and Electronics
Equipment Growth Rates
25
Semiconductor Industry
Electronics Industry
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2004
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2005
2006
2007
27
2008
2009
2010
2011
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
 Key Issues
- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan
through 2011? by applications, and by device ...
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
28
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Will Drop to US$ 9.2
Billion in 2011, from US$ 12.8 in 2006
Millions of US Dollars
Market size in Taiwan has dropped down gradually…
16,000
Market CAGR
06/11 = -6.4%
14,000
12,000
Military
10,000
8,000
Industrial
6,000
Automotives
4,000
Consumers
2,000
Comms
DP
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
WW% 5.7%
4.9%
4.2%
Source:
GartnerInc.
Dataquest
© 2006 Gartner,
All Rights Estimates
Reserved. (May 2007)
3.8%
3.4%
29
3.1%
2.8%
Taiwan ODMs Will Grap More Semiconductor PTAM
to US$ 82 Billion in 2011, from US$ 59 in 2006
Millions of US Dollars
Market size is increasing dramatically over the period…
90,000
Market CAGR
06/11 = 6.6%
80,000
70,000
60,000
Military
50,000
Industrial
40,000
Automotives
30,000
Consumers
20,000
Comms
10,000
DP
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
WW%
21%
22.6%
23.4%
Source:
GartnerInc.
Dataquest
© 2006 Gartner,
All Rights Estimates
Reserved. (May 2007)
23.7%
24%
30
24.3% 24.7%
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast by Device
Percentage
100%
70%
Non-optical
Sensors
General Purpose
Logic
Discrete
60%
Optoelectronics
50%
Analog
90%
80%
40%
ASIC
30%
Microcomponent
20%
Memory
10%
0%
ASSP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:
GartnerInc.
Dataquest
© 2006 Gartner,
All Rights Estimates
Reserved. (May 2007)
31
AP High TAM Applications
Semiconductor
2006
2011
2006-2011
2006
2011
Total Available Market
(M$)
(M$)
CAGR
Share
Share
Digital Cellular, 2.5G
16,169
14,045
-2.8%
11.7%
6.9%
Mobile PC
13,139
25,805
14.5%
9.5%
12.7%
Digital Cellular, 3G
9,089
33,831
30.1%
6.6%
16.6%
Desktop PC (CPU and memory)
8,872
7,425
-3.5%
6.4%
3.7%
Desktop PC (motherboard)
5,404
7,230
6.0%
3.9%
3.6%
RS3-Flash Cards
4,593
6,268
6.4%
3.3%
3.1%
Portable Media Players – Flash
4,349
5,765
5.8%
3.2%
2.8%
Flat Panel Monitor
4,007
5,983
8.3%
2.9%
2.9%
Graphic Cards
3,977
4,222
1.2%
2.9%
2.1%
Rigid Disk Drive
3,879
5,967
9.0%
2.8%
2.9%
Video Game Consoles
3,597
3,978
2.0%
2.6%
2.0%
Optical Disk Drive
3,171
4,754
8.4%
2.3%
2.3%
Digital Still Camera
2,721
3,556
5.5%
2.0%
1.7%
54,850
74,412
6.3%
39.8%
36.6%
137,815
203,240
8.1%
Others
SUM
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
32
AP Emerging Applications
Semiconductor
2006
2011
2006-2011
2006
2011
Total Available Market
(M$)
(M$)
CAGR
Share
Share
9,089
33,831
30.1%
6.6%
16.6%
GPS, Portable Navigation Device
951
3,146
27.0%
0.7%
1.5%
Airbags
336
916
22.2%
0.2%
0.5%
2,147
4,683
16.9%
1.6%
2.3%
Server, Entry-Level
845
1,760
15.8%
0.6%
0.9%
Smart Cards
632
1,270
15.0%
0.5%
0.6%
13,139
25,805
14.5%
9.5%
12.7%
LAN Switches
894
1,733
14.1%
0.6%
0.9%
Wireless LAN Infrastructure
719
1,379
13.9%
0.5%
0.7%
Appliances
697
1,202
11.5%
0.5%
0.6%
1,379
2,296
10.7%
1.0%
1.1%
705
1,142
10.1%
0.5%
0.6%
Others
106,280
124,076
3.1%
77.1%
61.0%
Sum
137,815
203,240
8.1%
Digital Cellular, 3G
TV, LCD
PC, Mobile
Video Game Handhelds
Security/Energy Management
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
33
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
 Key Issues
- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan
through 2011? by applications, and by device …..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
34
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Market Share Leaders
2005
2006
2005(M$)
2006(M$)
Growth
2006
Rank
Rank
Revenue
Revenue
(%)
Share (%)
1
1
Intel
5,168
4,572
-12%
15%
2
2
Samsung Electronics
1,931
2,059
7%
7%
10
3
Advanced Micro Devices
438
1,822
316%
6%
3
4
Texas Instruments
1,220
1,548
27%
5%
5
5
Hynix Semiconductor
736
1,029
40%
3%
6
6
NVIDIA
733
951
30%
3%
7
7
Powerchip Semiconductor
600
923
54%
3%
4
8
MediaTek
925
888
-4%
3%
8
9
Infinion (+Qimonda)
564
655
18%
2%
9
10
Toshiba
524
618
18%
2%
Others
13,593
14,893
10%
50%
Total Market
26,432
29,968
13%
100%
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
35
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
 Key Issues
- Global Semiconductor Market Overview
- What is the semiconductor market forecast in Taiwan
through 2011? by applications, and by device …..
- Who are leaders of semiconductor vendors in Taiwan?
- Taiwan’s semiconductor industry update
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
36
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturers Leaders
Company Name
2005
2006
Nanya Technology
1440
2111
47%
MediaTek Inc.
1438
1609
12%
PowerChip Semiconductor
1027
1513
47%
ProMOS Technologies
871
1462
68%
Novatek
809
964
19%
Himax
540
743
38%
Winbond Electronics
655
629
-4%
Macronix International
511
615
20%
VIA Technologies
590
559
-5%
Realtek Semiconductor
352
380
8%
4179
4779
14%
Total Taiwan
12,412
15,364
24%
global share
8.0%
8.6%
others
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
37
AGR
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Foundry Leaders
company name
2005
2006
AGR(%)
TSMC
8,228
9,716
18%
UMC
2,882
3,191
11%
114
122
7%
14
16
14%
353
398
13%
Epsil
75
92
23%
Mosel-Vitelic
80
99
24%
11,746
13,634
16%
PowerChip Semiconductor
Winbond Electronics
Vanguard
total foundry
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
38
2006 Taiwan Semiconductor Capital Spending
2005
2006
2007
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Group
2,527.0
2,473.7
2,801.0
-2.1%
13.2%
Powerchip
1,308.7
2,600.0
2,000.0
98.7%
-23.1%
80.0
122.0
1,900.0
52.5%
1457.4%
860.0
862.0
1,875.0
0.2%
117.5%
Inotera (was Hwaya Semiconductor)
718.0
1,413.0
1,229.0
96.8%
-13.0%
United Microelectronics Group
722.0
1,018.0
1,006.0
41.0%
-1.2%
25.0
36.4
225.0
45.6%
518.1%
929.5
861.1
495.3
-7.4%
-42.5%
Taiwan Companies
7,170.2
9,386.2
11,531.3
30.9%
22.9%
Global Share
15.2%
16.7%
20.2%
Nanya technology
ProMOS
Vanguard International Semiconductor
Others
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
39
2006GR
2007GR
Taiwan Semiconductor Market Forecast
 Complementary….
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
40
Cellular Phone Production Forecast, Worldwide
Unit: K
1,800,000
2G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 42.4%
Driver for semiconductor market:
2.5G Cellular CAGR(06-11): - 2.9%

Higher-than-expected demand for memory,
especially flash, could boost overall
semiconductor content and increase growth
for the semiconductor market.

Advanced mobile devices, offering digital
services and robust access to the Internet at
attractive prices, could boost sales of 3G
devices.

The addition of functions such as GPS
functionality and mobile TV could add to the
cost of components and increase overall
semiconductor value in the handset and
devices for enterprise users.
3G Cellular CAGR(06-11): 32.9%
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2G Cellular
2.5G Cellular
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3G Cellular
Total Cellular
41
Manufacturers' Sales of Mobile Terminals to
End Users: Worldwide, 2006 and 2005
manufacturer
06 units (K)
06 mkt shr
05 units (K)
05 mkt shr
Mkt shr change
Nokia
344,916
34.8%
265,615
32.5%
2.3%
Motorola
209,251
21.1%
144,920
17.7%
3.4%
Samsung
116,480
11.8%
103,754
12.7%
-0.9%
Sony Ericsson
73,642
7.4%
51,774
6.3%
1.1%
LG
61,986
6.3%
54,925
6.7%
-0.4%
BenQ Mobile
23,558
2.4%
39,692
4.9%
-2.5%
Sagem
15,893
1.6%
16,327
2.0%
-0.4%
Sharp
12,589
1.3%
9,881
1.2%
0.1%
Sanyo
9,040
0.9%
10,690
1.3%
-0.4%
NEC
8,403
0.8%
10,572
1.3%
-0.5%
Ohters
115,105
11.6%
108,414
13.4%
-1.8%
Total
990,863
100%
816,563
100%
ODM Handsets as Percentage of Total is expected to be around 18% in 2006.
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
42
Taiwanese ODMs: Strong R&D Keeps Them
Competitive in 2006
Name
Own
brand
Technologies
supported
Technology
supplier
Customers
Shipm.
05(K)
Shipm.
06(K)
Shipm.
07(K)
Arima
Comm.
-
GSM/WCDMA
Broadcom, Agere,
Ericsson Mobile
Sony Ericsson, NEC, LG, O2,
iSmart
12,000
13,000
20,000
Asus
Comm.
-
GSM
Infineon
Technology
Vodafone, O2
600
600
1,000
BenQ
Mobile
BenQSiemens
GSM/WCDMA,
CDMA
-
-
3,980
2,400
-
Chi Mei
Comm.
-
GSM/WCDMA
TI, Infineon
Motorola
700
12,000
30,000
Compal
Comm.
-
GSM/WCDMA,
CDMA
TI
Motorola, Alcatel, Eastcom,
Datalog, Panasonic,
30,000
65,000
75,000
HTC
Dopod
WCDMA,
CDMA
Broadcom, TI,
Ericsson Mobile,
Qualcomm,
Samsung
O2, T-Mobile, Orange, Palm,
Dopod International, NTT
DoCoMo, Cingular Wireless,
Softbank
6,850
8,000
10,000
Inventec
Okwap
GSM
-
Huawei technologies, JiTong
1,800
2,000
3,000
MiTAC
Mio
GSM
Intel
Own-brand only
500
500
500
Quanta
-
GSM
ADI, Qualcomm
Toshiba, O2, NEC, HP, E-ten
2,900
2,000
2,600
Others
9,690
1,000
1,200
Total
69,020
106,500
143,300
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
43
Personal Computer Production Forecast,
Worldwide
Forecast Overview:
Desktop PCs CAGR(06-11): 4.0%
Unit: K

The upward revision reflects
expectations for stronger mobile PC
shipment growth as well as morerobust emerging market growth.

Deskbased PC shipment growth has
been reduced on expectations of
weaker replacement activity and moreaggressive mobile-for-deskbased
substitution in mature markets.

Worldwide PC ASP will decline 9.7
percent in 2006 and 7.3 percent in
2007. Windows Vista impact could
drive demand gradually in 2007.
Mobile PCs CAGR(06-11): 18.2%
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Desktop PCs
Mobile PCs
Total PCs
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2010
2011
44
Complement—
1. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (1)
Five major EE manufacturing models
Manufacturing Model
OEM
ODM
EMS
Brand (Assembley Only)
R&D Only
Subsystems (not EE)
Brand
Y
N
N
Y
N
N
Design
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Purchase
Production
N
N
Y
N
N
(Blanks indicate Y or N is possible)
Remember:
OEM, ODM, EMS etc are not Company Types but Manufacturing Models
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
45
Complement-2. Focus Strategy on design-in TAM (2)
3TAM analysis for Digital Still Cameras:
Gartner 2007 plan includes
3TAM reports for:
1.
3G Phone
2.
Mobile PC
3.
Video Game Console
Semiconductor Consumption per EEM
(US$M)
Equipment
Brand
Design-Win
Purchasing
Suppliers
Potential
Potential
Potential
Canon
977
977
98
Sony
818
818
655
Sanyo
53
692
692
Premier
264
371
148
Kodak
634
290
290
4.
Wireless LAN Infrstr
Panasonic
264
264
132
5.
LCD TV
Casio
132
132
132
Fuji Photo
132
58
26
6.
Portable Navigation dev.
Konica Minolta
95
53
26
7.
Airbag
Nikon
132
24
24
Olympus
158
21
21
8.
DSL CPE
Ricoh
48
11
11
Pentax
26
11
0
Others
50
62
1529
3,783
3,783
3,783
Total
© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
46