Identifying long-term monitoring
needs
Coastline management in the Netherlands
1st EEEN Forum, Leuven, 9–10 February 2012
Leon Hermans
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Delft
University of
Technology
Challenge the future
Outline of presentation
1. Long-term monitoring and environmental evaluation
2. A framework that is fit for multi-actor complexity
3. Applying the framework in retrospect: coastline
management in the Netherlands 1985 – 2010
4. Conclusions
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Long-term monitoring and
environmental evaluation
• Necessary for ‘evidence-based’ learning
• Long-term horizon
• Uncertainties, including in underlying science
• Competing interests
• “Data rich but information poor” syndrome?
• Can one predict policy issues ten years ahead?
Economist, 2011
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Researching long-term monitoring
• Aim: Support design of long-term monitoring programs fit for
policy-oriented learning in multi-actor context
• Conceptual design of approach: actors and policy-oriented
learning
• Historical test of design: What happened without support? Two
cases, one in the Netherlands, one in South-Africa.
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Designing an approach for
monitoring
• Network context of policy-making: interdependent actors as
drivers
• Outcomes of policy-processes as result of interactions among
actors
• Learning to be done by these actors
• Actors central in identification learning agenda policy
processes
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Capturing the essence of actor
interactions: Game theory
For each game:
• Decisions
• Rules and procedures
• Players
For each player:
• Goals – preferences, mandates, responsibilities, interests (what
they want to achieve)
• Means – resources, interventions, connections (what they can do)
• Perceptions – assumptions about the game and the system
(what they think)
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Collective choice
Constitutional
Games and Learning over Time:
Rounds and Levels
Project “Coastal
Defense Act”
Project “Coastal
policy”
Draft Act, incl
Provincial Bodies
Coast
Water Defense
Act (1996)
Spatial planning added to
coastal policy
Decision: coastline
preservation, incl
annual budget
Coastal land reclamation SouthHolland formally explored
Technical refinements (underwater
nourishments, coastal fundament)
Design of coastline
mngt procedures
Operational
Adoption Water
Act (2009)
Decision: pilot with
sand motor, incl
budget
Weak links identified, corrective
actions formulated
Implementation
weak link projects
South-Holland
Ad-hoc interventions coastline
Annual sand nourishment programmes for coastline preservation decided and implemented.
Decisions (annually): distribution of sand
1984
1990
2000
2003
2010
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Coastline management in the
Netherlands, 1984 - 2011
Three rounds included in analysis:
• 1990: Policy decision: Coastline preservation
• 1990 – 2000s: Annual programming sand nourishments
• Current: Long-term strategy for coastline (Sand motor?)
Pictures: Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat, Deltaprogramma
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Game 1, 1980s
Coastal erosion & Finalizing Delta
Works
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Game 1
Players and Coalitions
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•
•
•
•
•
•
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•
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Engineers ‘Rijkswaterstaat’
Scientists: Delft Hydraulics , Universities, …
Minister Public Works & Water Management
Cabinet / Finance Minister
National Parliament
Union of Water boards
Coastal provinces
Coastal municipalities
Nature organisations
Residents coastal areas
Owners beach pavillions
Other coastal businesses
Public at large (citizens)
Coastal Experts
Budgetholders
Societal
stakeholders
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Solution space
(opened up by storm event)
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Game 2, 1990s
Annual programme sand distribution –
Technical and administrative procedures
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Game 2
Coalitions and their interests
• {Rijkswaterstaat, Waterboards}: Safety National Coast:
• Coastline preservation, longer timespan
• {Municipalities, Waterboards}: Regional tailoring:
• Sometimes little bit ‘extra’, for regional economy (beach width) and
safety (small dunes), shorter timespans
• {Nature,Waterboards}: Nature / no disturbance
• No disturbance dune areas, for nature but also to maintain safetyof
water defense structures, longest timespan
• Different coalitions with (sometimes) different interests in amount
and frequency of sand nourishments at specific locations
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Game 2: Sand nourishment
programming
Coastline
preservation
Nature
Regional development
• Safety interest accepted by all
• No extra budget for additional interests of players
• Game has no shared solution space
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Games and Assumptions
Establishing
a coastal
policy (pre1990)
Issue to be
decided
How to
respond to
coastal
erosion
Annual sand Annual
distributions distribution of
(1990 – …)
sand for
coastline
preservation
Main coalitions
Outcome
(decision)
Coastal experts, 1990: Coastline
Budget holders, preservation,
Societal
with annual
stakeholders
budget
Water safety,
regional
(recreation),
nature
Assumptions
Sand nourishments most
efficient way to control
erosion and maintain base
coast line. Costs: 60 MHfl / 6
– 8 Mm3/y sand. Best way to
serve nature and restore
natural dune dynamics
Annually:
Policy of sand nourishments
nourishment
‘works’. Nature best served
programmes,
by keeping dune area
guided by safety undisturbed. Recreational
concerns
interests best served by
stable beach widths.
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Monitoring assumptions Game 1
Assumptions in Games
Maintaining the base coast line through
sand nourishments halts coastal
erosion.
This means that safety is ensured.
Possible Indicators
Actual/momentary coast line with the base
coast line as reference
Volumes of sand used for nourishments
Calculated safety levels (with volume,
width, height as variables?)
Actual incidents, damage done
Sand nourishments halt coastal erosion Costs of sand nourishments (with
in an efficient way.
estimated costs of alternatives as
reference)
Sand nourishments better for nature
Biodiversity: species, population age
than hard maintenance interventions. groups, etcetera. At dunes, beaches, but
also sea (sand mining). Influenced by
frequency and size of disturbance (sand
nourishments), timing (seasons), location,
sand quality (particle size),…
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Monitoring assumptions Game 2
Assumptions in Games
Possible Indicators
Maintaining the Base coast line serves
As above, coastline and safety indicators
safety interests
Maintaining dunes for safety easiest to
Safety indicators above.
organize by prohibiting other activities
Costs for dune management water boards
Recreation interests served by stability – i.e. Turn-over at beach pavilions, comparative,
keeping pavilions and coastline on fixed
for varying dry beach width dynamics &
locations, certain width of ‘dry beach’
correcting for other variables (€/y)
Local economic development served by
Local production, jobs – for varying access
allowing more access to dune reserves
regimes (correcting for other variables)
Nature best served by leaving nature
See above for nature indicators
undisturbed
(biodiversity)
Main alternative to sand nourishments
?? Cannot be tested, is (partially) a ‘mental
would be ‘hard’ measures like dikes and
construct’
concrete water works
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Monitoring in coastline management
• Since (pre-) 1990: Safety
indicators
• 2009: Agreement on research
nature effects sand
nourishments
• 2009: Two reports with cases
on sand nourishments and
recreation
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Emerging picture: partial monitoring
• Only part of assumptions were monitored
• ‘Just happened’
• Experts, analysts and budget Rijkswaterstaat all ‘safety’ oriented
• Consequences:
• We ‘know’ sand nourishments ‘work’ for safety
• We do not ‘know’ their effects on nature and recreation
• Is this bad? Should it have been differently? Who is responsible?
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Conclusions from this case
• Looking at policy processes as ‘games’ with players who make
assumptions helps uncover monitoring needs
• May suggest a broader focus for monitoring, covering needs for
multiple actors
• But: who is responsible for ‘more’ monitoring?
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Conclusions on methodology
• Long-term framework IAD + rounds
• Enabled organizing data
• Game theory
• Useful for suggesting concepts for analysis of actor interactions
• Added value of full game theory models for identification of
monitoring agendas is limited
• Assumption-based planning / assumption surfacing
• Critical for translation from games to monitoring needs
• Important to identify assumptions for multiple actors – game theory
helpful but other approaches for actor analysis also possible
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Thank you for your attention!
Leon Hermans
[email protected]
A more detailed working paper can be downloaded from:
http://www.nextgenerationinfrastructures.eu/index.php?pageID=19&itemID=580908
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