Status of Bangladesh Cross Border Interconnections with India and Expected Benefits Md. Mizanur Rahman Chief Engineer, Planning and Design, BPDB March 19, 2014 www.bpdb.gov.bd Economy of Bangladesh at a Glance Official Name CHINA INDIA : People’s Republic of Bangladesh Political System: Parliamentary Democracy INDIA SYLHET RAJSHAHI Area : 147,570 km2 Population : 154 million Total Exports : USD 27 billon (FY2013) Total Imports : USD 34 billon (FY2013) Remittance : USD 14.5 billon (FY2013) INDIA DHAKA Forex Reserve : USD 18 billion INDIA BARISAL KHULNA CHITTAGONG GDP total : USD 131 b (FY 2013) GDP Per Capita : USD 1044 (FY 2013) 200 miles 500 km Power Capacity : 10,000 MW www.bpdb.gov.bd 2 GROWTH IS REMARKABLY STABLE AGAINST ALL SHOCKS Resilient growth despite regular political, environmental and external setbacks Bangladesh has maintained consistent growth and never defaulted on its internal or external debt obligations despite the Asian and Global Financial Crises, numerous political upheavals and countless natural disasters. This consistency is practically unrivaled amongst countries of a similar level of development Cyclone 2B: Casualty: 400 people 8,000 cattle Very severe tropical Cyclone BOB 01 Asian Economic Crisis Very severe cyclonic storm BOB 06: 300,000 affected, 8755 homes destroyed Real GDP Growth (%) 7 6 5.0 5 4 3 3.3 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.1 6.3 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.9 Slowdown after 9/11 6.6 6.0 Oil Price reaches >US$140/b MFA Phase Out 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.7 6.1 6.3 5.3 5.3 Economic Crisis 6.03 4.4 2 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tropical Cyclone 04B: Casualty: 650 people 17,000 cattle. Most severe flooding in modern history : 66% of the land affected, 1000 deaths 26,000 livestock lost, 16,000 km roads damaged. Natural Disasters Severe Floods: 36% of the country flooded 36 mn people affected. External Shocks Cyclone Sidr: 3500 people killed Major floods: 500 died, 30% of the country affected Tropical catastrophic cyclone Linear Trend line (Real GDP Growth) www.bpdb.gov.bd 3 GDP Growth, Electricity Demand and Challenges With sustained GDP Growth, Electricity demand is increasing at a rate of 9 -12 % To meet this demand growth, power sector is facing challenges mainly: - Shortage of primary fuel supply from indigenous resources - Financing capital intensive power projects www.bpdb.gov.bd Strategic Policy on Power Fuel diversity and sustainable supply of primary fuel Private sector participation in power generation Harnessing renewable energy resources Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiency improvement program Regional Co-operation on Cross Boarder Power Trade www.bpdb.gov.bd Bangladesh’s Power Sector: At a Glance Generation Capacity : 10,213 MW Electricity Growth : 9% (FY-2013) ; 12 % (FY-2012) Total Consumers : 14.2 Million Transmission Lines : 9,300 km Distribution Lines : 290,000 km Per Capita Generation : 321 kWh (including Captive) Access to Electricity : 62 % (including 7 % RE) 6 www.bpdb.gov.bd Primary Fuel Supply Options www.bpdb.gov.bd 7 Fuel Mix: FY-2010 & 2013 FY-2013 FY-2010 Diesel Hydro FO 1.76% 2.50% 3.00% Coal 3.53% Furnace Oil 14.56% Diesel 1.95% Coal 3.02% Natural Gas 78.12% Gas 89.21% Total Net Generation : 29,247 MkWh Hydro 2.34% Total Net Generation : 38,229 MkWh www.bpdb.gov.bd 8 Primary Fuel Options: Indigenous Resources Gas: Only 16 tcf proven reserve; No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas based generation expansion; R/P ration is only about 20 years. Hydro: Present capacity 230 MW and average energy generation- 800 GWh; No further significant potential Coal: Total 3.2 billion ton reserve in 5 mines; Near term option; Base Load Renewable: Present capacity only 120 MW; still high cost www.bpdb.gov.bd 9 Primary Fuel Supply Options: Import Import Options as Indigenous resources are Inadequate Coal Import: Indonesia, Australia, South Africa LNG Import Oil- Volatile Market Nuclear Regional Hydro Power Import- Cross Boarder Trade www.bpdb.gov.bd 10 Long Term Power Generation Expansion Plan www.bpdb.gov.bd 11 PSMP Peak Demand Forecast 2030 FY GDP growth rate Elasticity Effect of DSM Unit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 [%] 5.5% 6.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 1.00 1.00 [%] 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Electricity growth rate Total Demand without DSM Total Demand with DSM [%] [MW] 7,454 8,203 9,064 10,016 11,068 12,230 13,514 14,933 16,501 18,233 20,020 21,912 23,906 25,998 28,182 30,450 32,795 35,205 37,670 40,306 43,128 [MW] 7,454 7,793 8,611 9,515 10,514 11,618 12,838 14,186 15,676 17,322 18,819 20,488 22,233 23,918 25,645 27,405 29,187 30,981 32,773 34,664 36,659 4.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 8.6% 8.9% 8.5% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% Off-grid captive demand [MW] 1,000 1,027 1,093 1,166 1,246 1,335 1,433 1,542 1,662 1,794 1,515 1,649 1,790 1,925 2,064 2,206 2,349 2,494 2,638 2,790 2,951 Grid System Demand with DSM [MW] 6,454 6,765 7,518 8,349 9,268 10,283 11,405 12,644 14,014 15,527 17,304 18,838 20,443 21,993 23,581 25,199 26,838 28,487 30,134 31,873 33,708 www.bpdb.gov.bd 12 Typical Demand Curve Load (MW) Typical demand for FY 2012-2013 8700 8400 8100 7800 7500 7200 6900 6600 6300 6000 5700 5400 5100 4800 4500 4200 3900 3600 3300 3000 2700 2400 2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 24:00 23:00 22:00 21:00 20:00 19:00 September'12 January'13 May'13 18:00 17:00 16:00 15:00 14:00 13:00 12:00 August'12 December'12 April'13 11:00 10:00 9:00 8:00 7:00 6:00 5:00 4:00 3:00 2:00 1:00 0:00 July'12 November'12 March'13 October'12 February'13 June'13 www.bpdb.gov.bd 13 Power Generation Plan: Primary Fuel Sources by 2030 Sl. No. Description Capacity (MW) 1 Domestic Coal 11,250 2 Imported Coal 8,400 3 Domestic Gas/LNG 8,850 % 51 Possible Location (s) North West Region at Mine Mouth Chittagong and Khulna 23 Gas- Near Load Centers LNG- Near Costal Area 4 Regional Grid 3,500 9 Bahrampur - Bheramara, Silchar Fenchuganj, Purnia- BarapukuriaBongaigaon, Myanmar - Chittagong 5 Nuclear 4,000 10 Rooppur 6 Others (Oil, Hydro and Renewable) 2,700 7 Near Load Centers Total 38,700 www.bpdb.gov.bd 14 Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030) Domestic Coal K-D-P 6x1000 MW USC K-D-P 8x 600 MW USC Import Coal Meghnaghat 2x600MW Zajira/New Meg 3x600MW Chittagong 3x660MW Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW Railway Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future) Total 19,200MW (New) Coal Center Chittagong Matarbari : Potential Coal PS : Potential Coal Center : Ocean-going vessel : Transship Moheshkhali Island www.bpdb.gov.bd Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities THAKURGAON 1000MW 1000MW BONGAIGAON BARAPUKURIA PURNIA BARAPUKURIA SILCHAR FENCHUGANJ FENCHUGANJ BAHARAMPUR 500MW [2013-] 500MW [2018-] 500 MW 100 MW BHERAMARA BAHARAMPUR BHERAMARA TRIPURA COMILLA 500 MW MYANMAR CHITTAGONG www.bpdb.gov.bd Bangladesh – India Co-operation on Power Trade Bangladesh-India signed a MOU on 11.01.2010 to promote technical, bilateral co-operation in power sector development Salient Features of MOU Exchange of power Grid connectivity between the two countries Joint technical team proposed an interconnection between Bheramara in Bangladesh and Baharampur in India. Establishment of 400 KV, 100 km double circuit line from Bheramara to Baharampur and back-to-back HVDC station at Bheramara 500 MW power import by 2013 17 www.bpdb.gov.bd First Regional Power Inter-Connection Line INTERCONNECTION BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH GRIDS BARAPUKURIA JAYPURHAT MALDA KHEJURIA KAHALGAON BOGRA FARRAKA NAOGAON BOGRA SOUTH NIAMATPUR CH. NAWABGANJ BANGLADESH DHULIAN RAJSHAHI NATORE SIRAJGANJ SAGARDIGHI BAHARAMPUR ISHURDI DURGAPUR GOKARNA BAHARAMPUR (400 KV) 400kV D/c INDIA KOLAGHAT SUBHASGRAM BAGHABARI GHORASAL BHERAMARA BOTTAIL KATWA BAKRESHWAR JEERAT PABNA SHAHJAD PUR MADHOPUR RAGHUNATHGANJ KHULNA (SOUTH) FARIDPUR LEGEND THE PROJECT 400 kV 230 kV 132 kV Existing Under Constr. / Future www.bpdb.gov.bd Grid Interconnection Project Implementation Status: 400 kV Transmission line (Bangladesh part): - Contract Signed : 30-Dec-2010 - Contractor : Cobra, Spain - Consultant : PGCIL, India - Target of Completion : May, 2013 - Actual Completion date: 30th June, 2013 - Line energized : 30th August, 2013 www.bpdb.gov.bd Grid Interconnection Project Implementation Status: Back-to-Back HVDC Station at Bheramara: - Contract Signed : 29-Mar-2011 - Contractor : SIEMENS, Germany - Target of Completion : July, 2013 - HVDC station charging: 27th September, 2013 - Test power flow: 27th September, 2013 - Commercial operation date: 5th October, 2013 www.bpdb.gov.bd Possible Next Cross Border Interconnections Case-3 Case-2 Case-1 www.bpdb.gov.bd Expected Benefits Diversity of power sources will ensure energy security Reduced dependency on liquid fuel based power Availability of power at competitive price Development of hydro resources in North-Eastern India, Nepal, Bhutan and Power Trade among neighboring countries will bring economic benefits to all the countries. Establishment of ‘Regional Power Market’ is utmost priority for maximizing benefits and ensuring energy security in South Asia www.bpdb.gov.bd 22 Thank you www.bpdb.gov.bd 23 10,000 5,000 0 20,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 13,638 14,739 16,255 17,445 18,458 20,302 21,408 22,978 23,268 24,946 26,533 29,247 31,355 35,118 38,229 5,308 6,214 6,759 7,345 7,857 8,450 8,746 9,295 10,266 10,901 11,243 12,194 883 681 1,031 1,202 1,256 1,387 1,538 1,817 2,016 2,236 2,529 2,885 3,261 3,768 4,302 4,560 15,000 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Historical Energy Net Generation (GWh) in Bangladesh Net Energy Generation in GWh www.bpdb.gov.bd
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