6 June PME Topic
“Outsmart Your Own Biases”
Purpose: Discuss techniques for managing biases in order to improve decision making
Issues for Discussion
• Think about the future
• Make three estimates
REF: Outsmart your Own Biases, HBR 2015
• Think twice
Idea in Brief
• Use ‘premortems’
• The Problem. Cognitive biases muddy our decision making. We rely too heavily on
intuitive, automatic judgements, and even when we try to use reason, our logic is often
lazy or flawed.
• Take an outside view
• Think about objectives
• Seek Advice
• The Cause. Instead of exploring risks and uncertainties, we seek closure—it’s much
easier. This narrows our thinking about what could happen in the future, what our
goals are, and how we might achieve them.
• The Solution. By knowing which biases tend to trip us up and using certain tricks and
tools to outsmart them, we can broaden our thinking and make better choices
What is the danger of not recognizing biases?
–
To the decision maker?
–
To the organization?
• Even the smartest people exhibit biases in their judgements choices. It’s
foolhardy to think we can overcome them through sheer will. But we can
anticipate and outsmart them by nudging ourselves in the right direction when
it’s time to make a call.
Terms of Reference
• Bias is an inclination or outlook to present or hold a partial
perspective, often accompanied by a refusal to consider
the possible merits of alternative points of view.
(Wikipedia)
Application (Sea Services)
•
• Cycle through your objectives
•
What strategies exist to effectively balance outsmarting biases
and maintaining operational tempo?
•
How does this article relate to decision space? Why do
leaders value decision space?
•
Is there a business case for managing biases?
•
What is the correlation between improving decision making
and mission accomplishment?
• System 1 thinking – automatic judgements that stem from
associations stored in memory—instead of logically
working through the information that’s available. (Soll,
Milkman, and Payne, HBR May 2015)
• System 2 thinking – deliberate reasoning gone awry.
(Soll, Milkman, and Payne, HBR May 2015)
UNCLASSIFIED
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