Foundations for making smart
decisions
Reading 24 Block 3
Keeney, R.L.
Dr.A.HIndieh
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Making good decisions
• Making good decisions is the fundamental to the
success of every engineer . it is almost truism that the
industrial engineer who routinely makes good
decisions .
• What tools does the profession offer to guide us in
decision – making ? they tend to focus on the
mathematical aspects of models that are of greatest
interest to quantitative .
• The fact is that no quantitative model can be
developed or used without a qualitative foundation
that describes what is important to include in the
quantitative model , this article discusses how to
develop a quality foundation for engineering decision
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Making informed decision
Eight keys elements for making smart choices
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Making informed decision
• The five element s(PROACT) serving as a reminder
elements to be proactive , it constitute the core of our way
of thoughts ,The remaining elements are basic notions to
industrial engineering .
• That most practical problems can be analyzed without
going through the full gamut of the eight elements. Often
clear thinking on one element may resolve the decision
complete , sometimes you just need to understand your
objectives, create the alternative , get your tradeoffs
straight , or know what the chances of some events really
are. Then you can make a smart choices and move on.
• When either objectives and alternative are clearly stated
and complete , many decisions can be resolved without the
need for further analysis, when they are inadequate , the
will led to a poor decision.
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Specifying and organizing objectives
• Decision maker often don't specify their objectives clearly
and fully , As a result they fail to get where they want to go
, this occurs for three reasons :• First:- many people spend too little time and effort on the
task of specifying objectives , they feel they already know
what they want and needs .
• Second :- getting it right isn't easy, objectives don't just pop
up in nice neat lists, while you might think you know what
you want , some of the most important objectives may not
be at all obvious.
• Third :- decision –makers often take too narrow a focus ,
their list of objectives is limited, omitting important
considerations that become apparent only after they have
made a decision..
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Specifying and organizing objectives
Steps to Identifying and organizing objectives :1.
Write down all the concerns you want to address through your
decision .
2. Convert you general concerns into succinct ( brief) objective.
3. Separate ends from means to establish your fundamental
objectives ., the best way to do that ask why and keep asking why.
Fundamental objectives constitute the broadest objectives directly
influenced by your decision alternatives, only fundamental
objectives should be used to evaluate and compare alternative.
Means objectives represent way stations in the progress toward a
fundamental objectives , each means objective can serve as a
stimulus for generating alternative and can deepen your
understanding of your decision problem .
• Separating means and fundamental objective is critical because
both kinds of objectives play important but different roles in the
decision making process.
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Specifying and organizing objectives
Steps to Identifying and organizing objectives :-
4. For each fundamental objective ask " what
do I really mean by this? Asking What?
Enables you to identify the components of
your objectives and better understanding .
5. Test your objectives to see if they capture
your interests, use your list to evaluate
several potential alternative, asking yourself if
you would be comfortable living with the
resulting choices, if not, reexamine them.
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Creating alternative
• The alternatives represent the rang of potential
choices you’ll have for pursuing your objectives ,
because of the central important of alternatives ,
you need to establish a high standard for them.
two important points should be kept in mind :1. You can never choose an alternative you have
not considered .
2. No matter how many alternatives you have ,
your chosen alternative can be no better than
the best of lot.
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Creating alternative
Common Pitfalls :-
1. One of the most common pitfalls is choosing
the same alternative beckons as the essay
course ,Step back and develop alternative
that reflect original thinking and different
perspectives.
2. Many poor choices result from falling back on
default alternative.
3. Choosing the first possible solution
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Creating alternative
Techniques to generate set of alternatives
1. Use your objectives and ask HOW? Since objectives drive
decisions ,
2. Challenge constraints , in our thinking about many
decision problems , we use constraints that limit our
alternative.
3. Unconventional alternatives is to set targets that seem
beyond reach, High aspiration force you to think in
entirely new ways rather than sliding by with modest
changes to the status quo.
4. Do your own thinking first, before consulting others about
alternatives , give your own mind free reign .
5. Learn from experience, you shouldn’t let yourself be
constrained by history, but you should certainly try to
learn from it.
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A professional opportunity
• Industrial engineers have had the opportunity
to develop their decision – making skills in the
manner that:1. Learn other skills such as tines , golf …
2. Break our subject of interest into element.
3. Next learn how to execute each element and
practice frequently in simple situations,
4. Then try to integrate these elements in
interesting situations.
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