Past Meetings and Presentations (ppt & pdf files) Links to past meetings' announcements and presentations in reverse order (most recent on top). Note that not all lectors can provide their slides as files. Announcements - MS Word files. Naming convention - date followed by place (nyc = New York City, ct = Connecticut (Hartford), sf = San Francisco, boston, chicago, vancouver, washington, etc.). Presentations - pdf, ppt, pptx, etc. files (file names also start with the date). You can open files by clicking on the links - or you can download them by right-clicking - and saving to your hard drive. Announcements Where Descriptions June 28, 2011 "Regimes and Long Memory in Realized Volatility" - Elena Goldman, PhD, Pace University Lubin School of Business New York, NY In this presentation, we model regimes derived from non-linearities in the dynamics of realized volatilities of daily stock returns of 30 companies in the Dow Jones index and selected ETFs.—Next, we introduce and show how to estimate a threshold fractionally integrated model (TARFIMA) using Bayesian MCMC with efficient jump. Finally, a new test based on posterior distributions of the mean squared forecast errors (MSE) is used for model selection. "Women In Quantitative Finance: Challenges, Opportunities, and Experiences" - A Panel Discussion with Interaction from the Audience Encouraged Moderator: Susan Hume PhD, Associate Professor, The College of New Jersey School of Business Panelists: Elena Goldman PhD, Associate Professor, Pace University Lubin School of Business Sara Grillo CFA, Founder, Grillo Investment Management LLC Merav Ozair PhD, Investment Research Analyst and Financial Consultant Dr. Hume will lead the panel in discussing perspectives on challenges and opportunities for women in the field of quantitative finance. The panelists will share their own experiences and discuss the importance of mentoring. After the opening volley of questions directed toward exchanges with the panel, audience members will be enouraged to ask questions and to share pertinent experiences. Elena Goldman is an Associate Professor in the Department of Finance and Economics at the Lubin School of Business, Pace University. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics (2002) from Rutgers University and a Masters in Physics (1996) from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Elena Goldman’s area of research is in the field of time series econometrics, international finance and financial history. She developed several new Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for estimation of non-linear time series models, which are popular in many financial and economic time series applications. She published papers in academic journals and books including Communications in Statistics, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Empirical Economics, Economics Letters, Bayesian Statistics and its Applications. She also presented her findings at numerous international and domestic conferences, university seminars and for private companies. Elena Goldman teaches graduate and undergraduate courses in empirical methods for business, international finance, corporate finance, business economics and courses in the multidiscipline cohort program in graduate business. She received a number of academic research grants and prizes, such as Sidney Brown Prize in Economics from Rutgers University and Eugene Lang Student-Faculty Fellowship from Pace University. Visit her at http://webpage.pace.edu/egoldman/ Sara Grillo is Founder of Grillo Investment Management LLC. Before founding Grillo Investment Management, Ms. Grillo worked at Fidelity Investments, JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers, and Rochdale Investment Management. She is a CFA® charterholder. Ms. Grillo graduated from Harvard College in 2000. In 2007 she earned a graduate degree in business administration from New York University Stern School of Business. Ms. Grillo is an Adjunct Professor of Economics and a mentor to younger women and minorities. Sara is also a member of the Steering Committee of the NYC Chapter of QWAFAFEW. Visit her at www.saragrilloinvestments.com Susan Hume is Associate Professor of Finance and International Business at The College of New Jersey (TCNJ) School of Business. Dr. Hume has teaching, research and professional experience in the areas of International Finance and Capital Markets, Banking, and Derivatives Securities. She collaborates with students on research, most recently on domestic microfinance and social responsibility. She is currently teaching courses in corporate finance, international finance and capital markets, currency crises and finance capstone in research at TCNJ. She has also taught similar courses at Baruch College and for their Executive Business program in Taiwan. She earned her doctorate in Finance and Economics at Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business, grad degree in advanced business from Rutgers School of Management and BA in American Studies from Douglass College, Rutgers University. She has worked extensively in hedging and derivatives securities, bank lending and bank regulations. Susan is also a member of the Steering Committee of the Princeton Chapter of QWAFAFEW. Visit her at http://www.tcnj.edu/~business/faculty/hume.html Merav Ozair PhD, CPA, is an Independent Investment Research Analyst and Financial Consultant. Dr. Ozair has teaching, research and professional experience. As an adjunct overseas professor, she has taught courses in finance and accounting at the Pace University Lubin School of Business. She has more than 11 years of experience in research and product development, including expertise in programming large datasets, fundamental financial analysis and equity valuation, macroeconomics, econometrics and investment theory. She earned her doctorate in Accounting and Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business. Her graduate degree in Economics and undergraduate degrees in a Accounting and Economics are from Tel Aviv University in Israel. Merav is a member of the SQA, PRMIA, the American Accounting Association, and the NYC Chapter of QWAFAFEW. She also has been honored as a member of Beta Gamma Sigma. Dr. Ozair may be contacted via e-mail at [email protected]. June 21, 2011 – Tuesday Boston, MA Intraday Alphas in the Intraday Trade Execution of Portfolios – Thorsten Schmidt, Thor Advisors LLC June 13, 2011 Monday Hartford, CT Options for Managing Volatility and Improving Portfolio Return/Risk Ratios – Matthew Moran, CBOE - As investors have struggled to cope with bear markets over the past decade, more attention has been focused on alternative investments and tools that can be used to achieve the goals of managing portfolio risk, increasing income, and enhancing long-term risk-adjusted returns. This presentation discusses a number of risk-management strategies and related benchmark indices, including the protective put, the buy-write, the collateralized put-write, the protective collar, and the use of futures and options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) that measures implied volatility. Twenty-two years of historical data show that certain options-based benchmark indices have generated attractive risk-adjusted returns, with stock-like returns and bond-like volatility. A key source of return for options writers has been a persistence of "overpricing" for index options. The presentation will also review past studies by Duke University, EnnisKnupp, Ibbotson Associates, and Callan Associates, and it will explore the benefits and disadvantages of key options strategies. Mr. Moran will also discuss the newly released Oil Volatility Index Options (OIL) along with projected uses by investment professionals. Bio: Matthew Moran is vice president of business development for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), where he is responsible for many of the exchange's educational efforts for pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors. Previously, he was trust counsel at Harris Bank and vice president at Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He is an associate editor of The Journal of Trading and is on the advisory boards of the Chartered Alternative Investments Analyst Association and Journal of Indexes. Mr. Moran holds JD and advanced business degrees from the University of Illinois.. Thanks to SNL Financial, www.snl.com,for underwriting a substantial portion of this event. SNL Financial is the premier provider of breaking news, financial data and expert analysis on business sectors critical to the global economy: Banking, Insurance, Financial Services, Real Estate, Energy and Media & Communications. SNL's information service provides investment professionals, from leading Wall Street institutions to top corporate management, with access to an in-depth electronic database, available online and updated 24/7. We hope to see you on Monday June 13th. Please invite friends. Feedback and ideas for what you would like to see in other meetings (speakers, time changes, venue changes, topics) is always most welcome. Please e-mail [email protected] with your suggestions at any time. Have a last minute question or need directions? Call Herb Blank at 917-992-7852. June 8, 2011 Wednesday New York, NY "An Innovative Look at Credit Risk" and "Fed Interest Rate Target Announcements" 6:20 - 7:00 "An Innovative Look at Credit Risk" - George Bonne, PhD, PRM The importance of unbiased, timely and predictive models of credit risk was highlighted in the recent financial crisis and continues to be on investor's minds today. This discussion will focus on how additional data, such as analyst estimates and textual data from news, conference call transcripts, and filings, can provide additional perspectives and improve upon traditional methods of estimating corporate credit risk that rely on equity prices and reported financial information. In addition to providing better estimates of default risk, the outputs of these models can be used to add alpha to equity and other investment strategies. 7:00 - 7:15 Break - Drinks & Refreshments 7:15 – 7:55 The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Target Announcement on Stock Prices - Stephen Figlewski PhD, Professor of Finance, New York University - This discussion focuses on the "informational microstructure" of the stock market around Fed Funds target announcements. The market's risk-neutral probability density function for future stock prices is extracted deom real-time option prices using a non-model dependent procedure. Results demonstrate that the market's adjustment to news continues well beyond the information release. Thanks to Thomson Reuters for sponsoring this event. Bios George Bonne, PhD, PRM, is Director of Quantitative Research at Thomson Reuters StarMine where one of his primary research areas is leading a team to create a new credit risk model that incorporates data and analytical approaches from both novel and traditional sources. Additional current research interests include predicting deals – IPOs and M&As – and creating more accurate macroeconomic forecasts. Previously he was a Senior Quantitative Research Analyst at StarMine where he helped create equity selection models involving valuation, analyst revisions and momentum. He came to StarMine from KLA-Tencor and Applied Materials, where he analyzed large data sets to develop mathematical models of the performance of semiconductor equipment. George holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in Physical Chemistry from Harvard University and a B.S. in Chemistry from UC Irvine. Stephen Figlewski PhD, New York University is a Professor of Finance at the New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business, where he has been since 1976. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Princeton University and a Ph.D in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has published extensively in academic journals, especially in the area of financial futures and options. He is the founding Editor of The Journal of Derivatives and he also edits the Financial Economics Network's two "Derivatives" series published over the Internet. He is the director of the NASDAQ OMX Derivatives Research Project, which is a research initiative at the Stern School that supports applied and theoretical research on derivatives and promotes intellectual interchange between academics and practitioners in derivatives, risk management, and financial engineering. Professor Figlewski has also worked on Wall Street. Recently he took a leave of absence to work on margin setting for creditsensitive securities at Citigroup. Previously, he spent a year at the First Boston Corporation, in charge of research on equity derivative products, and was at one time a member of the New York Futures Exchange and a Competitive Options Trader at the New York Stock Exchange May 24, 2011 Tuesday New York, NY May 19, 2011 Thursday Chicago, IL Chicago QWAFAFEW along with the IIT Stuart Center for Financial Markets and Chicago PRMIA co-sponsor a meeting on Thursday, May 19th, from 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. at the IIT Stuart Center for Financial Markets, 565 W. Adams Street, Room 270. The meeting's theme is: Strategy Night, Savita Subramanian, BA Merrill Lynch & Vinny Catalano, Blue Marble Capital “High-Frequency Trading: An Evolving Art and a Regulatory Conundrum” The Speakers are: • Ms. Elizabeth King, Head of Regulatory Affairs, GETCO • Mr. John McPartland, Senior Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago • Ms. Diane Saucier, Vice President Global Market Development, Trading Technologies • Mr. Jared Vegosen, Managing Director, DV Trading Chicago (a division of RCG) The meeting will be moderated by Michael Gorham, Industry Professor and Director, IIT Stuart Center for Financial Markets.The shift from floors to screens has brought many benefits, such as lower costs, tighter markets, greater transparency and quicker execution. Few of us, however, saw ahead to co-location, naked access, and jockeying for microsecond advantages. All evolving technologies will face unanticipated problems. The May 6, 2010 “Flash Crash,” for example, would not have occurred in a floor-based environment.In this discussion, organized by Professor Gorham, market participants will explore the current state of high-frequency trading, including the competitive and regulatory challenges faced by the trading firms as well as the policy issues faced by their regulators (the SEC and CFTC).. Admision is $10. Past Chicago QWAFAFEW presentations can be found here: http://www.qwafafew.org/index.php/chapters/chicago Tuesday, May 17, 2011 Boston, MA Boston- Is Investment Management a Profession? - Dr. John Minahan John Minahan is a Senior Lecturer in Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Previously, he had a career in pension and investment consulting. He is a past president of the Boston Security Analysts Society, and is currently a member of the Steerage Committee of Boston QWAFAFEW. He holds a Ph.D. from MIT, a BS from Boston College, and is a CFA Charterholder Speaker Bio: Wednesday, May 11, 2011 Princeton, NJ Wednesday May 11th in Princeton NJ “Use of Intraday Alphas in Algorithmic Trading" with Thorsten Schmidt "FIXatdl" with Robert Golan JThorsten Schmidt is Managing Director at Thor Advisors LLC - A wellknown expert in development and implementation of trading systems, Thorsten currently serves as Managing Director of Thor Advisors. Prior stops include being a quantitative trader at HAP Capital Group and serving as FIrst Vice President of Algorithmic Trading for Instinet for six years. His Economics degree is from Columbia University. Robert Golan is Information Rules Architect, Developer, and Scientist at DBMind Technologies, Inc. Robert Golan's current research and consulting endeavors focus on the design and implementation of Web Services (SOA) based Financial & Pharmaceutical Data Warehouses(with OLAP/ETL) while integrating Data Mining techniques in a BI theme. Robert is an expert in Financial Engineering specific to Credit/Operational Risk, Mortgage Finance, and Capital Markets on the Middle Office interconnects to the Front(Bloomberg/TradeWeb/Fidessa/Agora) and Backoffice(ADP/ICI/Rolfe&Nolan) operations. Robert's research abilities (M.Sc.) coupled with his work experience, give him an outstanding ability to evaluate and apply new technologies and products. Robert's research focus since the early 90's has been Advanced Algo Trading with AI/CI integrations. Robert has over twenty years of experience designing, developing, and maintaining information technology systems. Project management and team leadership has been an integral part of Robert's accomplishments and duties which includes offshoring and onshoring with teams from India/China. Robert is an expert on SOA/Web Services with Data Warehousing and AI based Advanced Algo Trading platforms. Tuesday, April 26, 2011 San Francisco, CA San Francisco QWAFAFEW - Event Driven Trading and the “New News”: The Other Information Revolution in Markets - David Leinweber Speaker: David Leinweber, Leinweber & Co. Where: L'Olivier French Restaurant 465 Davis Ct San Francisco, CA 94111 (415) 981-7824 Topic: Event Driven Trading and the “New News”: The Other Information Revolution in Markets Abstract: There are two information revolutions underway in trading and investing. Most of the headlines focus on structured quantitative market information at ever higher frequencies. The other technology revolution in trading and investing is driven by qualitative, textual and relationship information. This is important for people who make their living in finance on scales longer microseconds, even days. What constitutes “news” is a moving target, as vendors and investors expand and automate collection from primary and proprietary sources, including social media. This is increasingly used for event driven alpha signals. Demonstrations of this using commercial “state of the practice” news systems from Thomson Reuters are a part of this talk. A model sequestered for nearly a year and tested on unseen price and news produced an alpha exceeding 10% over its unseen test period, the first three quarters of 2010. The ideas of extracting and analyzing complex language and relationships is a broader topic, beyond news, with application in risk measurement, as well as an alpha source. One of the lessons of the recent financial crisis was that relationships between firms can amplify for risk. Computers are getting quite adept at understanding both language and relationships. We saw an impressive demonstration of this in the IBM Watson computer’s blowout win over human Jeopardy champs. The concluding portion of this talk describes MIDAS, another IBM developed system, which demonstrates impressive advanced capabilities in this sphere. Speaker Bio: Dr. Leinweber, author of "Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets" (Wiley 2009), is Principal of Leinweber & Co. His professional interests focus on how modern information technologies are best applied in trading and investing, and how technology affects global financial markets. Clients at his consulting and software business include some of the world's largest investment managers, hedge funds, brokers and exchanges. Recent, in a part-time public service role, he co-founded the nascent Center for Innovative Financial Technology at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab to build a bridge between the world of high performance “supercomputing” and finance. http://www.lbl.gov/CS/CIFT.html Tuesday, April 26 New York, NY Factor Risk Models & Optimization Presentation followed by Panel Discussion with 4 founding experts in the field Panelists: Sebastian Ceria, PhD, CEO and Founder, Axioma Tery Marsh, PhD, President and CEO, Quantal Frank Nielsen, CFA, Executive Director and Head of Index Research, MSCI Barra Moderator: Ed Matluck, PhD, co-Founder, HedgeMetrics All are welcome to attend. You need not be a member to attend this meeting. Please come as early as you can as we have a lot of ground to cover and 3 great panelists. Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. www.patrickconways.com RSVP to [email protected] and March 29th in Subject Line. In text body, please provide the names, phone numbers, company name, emails, and membership status for each attendee. Admission Fees accepted at door: $30 for Paid-up Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $40 for members of CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, GARP, SPA, or any CFAs, unemployed students and/or members of this Linked-In group; $50 for all other RSVPs Special Offer: Pay 2011 NYC-Chapter Membership dues of $100 at door and attend this meeting for free. If you wish to become a member by mail, please visit www.quaffers.org and follow membership link in top left tab. If you are not now on this mailing list, sign up at www.quaffers.org to receive these email announcements directly. AGENDA 5:20- 6:05 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:05 - 6:10 Chapter Business - C. Michael Carty, Chapter President 6:10 - 6:15 Introduction of Panelists, Ed Matluck Moderator - Please hold questions except requests for definition of terms until Q & A period at 7:15 6:15 - 6:35 "Optimization and Factor RIsk Models" - Dr. Sebatian Ceria, Axioma 6:35- 6:55 "Calculated “Bets” and the Risk Model to Support Them" Dr. Terry Marsh, Quantal Investors want to take calculated bets on “known unknowns.” A risk model that best supports these bets combines two features: (i) it optimally adapts to knowable shifts in factor structure over time; and (ii) it is flexible in attributing the shifts to the manager’s strategy. Risk model failures in the crisis were blamed on fat-tailed events, “unknowable unknowns,” 25 standard deviation events. I discuss that for models that perform (i) well, the glass is half-full in terms of such model failures. 6:55- 7:15 "Innovations in Factor Risk Modeling"- Frank Nielsen CFA, MSCI Barra 7:15 – 7:30 Q & A 7:30 - 7:45 Break - Drinks & Refreshments 7:45 – 8:30 Panel Discussion (All of the Above) Moderated by Dr. Ed Matluck, HedgeMetrics Bios Dr. Sebastián Ceria is the Chief Executive Officer of Axioma. Before founding Axioma, Ceria was an Associate Professor of Decision, Risk and Operations at Columbia Business School from 1993 to 1998. Ceria has worked extensively in the area of optimization and its application to portfolio management. He is the author of many articles in publications including Management Science, Mathematical Programming, Optima and Operations Research. Most recently, Ceria's work has focused on the area of robust optimization in portfolio management. He has co-authored numerous papers on the topic, including, "Incorporating Estimation Errors into Portfolio Selection: Robust Portfolio Construction," which was published in The Journal of Asset Management. He is a recipient of the Career Award for Operations Research from the National Science Foundation. Ceria completed his PhD in Operations Research at Carnegie Mellon University's Graduate School of Industrial Administration. Dr. Terry Marsh is President and CEO of Quantal International. He received his MBA and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Chicago. Terry served on the finance faculty at the Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley until 2005, and is a former chairman of the Haas Finance Group. He is presently an Emeritus Professor of Finance at Haas. Before joining Berkeley, Terry was an Associate Professor of Finance at MIT. He is a recipient of the Batterymarch Fellowship, was a National Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, and is a CPA Fellow of the Australian Society of Accountants. He has consulted for the New York Stock Exchange, the Options Clearing Corporation, the Industrial Bank of Japan, New Japan Securities, and Banamex, and was a member of the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms which investigated the 1987 stock market crash. Terry was a Yamaichi Fellow and Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo in 1993. Frank Nielsen CFA is the Executive Director and Head of Index and Applied Research at MSCI Barra Americas. He is responsible for managing and enhancing developed and emerging market equity indices for the Americas region and conducting applied research on clients' investment and risk management processes.He has written various research papers on asset allocation and asset-liability management, investing in equities and, factor and risk models. Prior to joining MSCI Barra in 1993, Nielsen worked in roles associated with product management, enterprise risk management and equity research. Nielsen also worked for HypoVereinsbank in Germany as a security and credit analyst. Frank has an advanced business degree from University of Hamburg and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Dr. Ed Matluck (moderator) is co-founder of HedgeMetrics. He has been involved in quantitative analysis of markets since 1985. He has held various positions at sell side brokerage firms and quantitative research organizations throughout his career. Ed is trained as an economist and holds a Ph. D. from New York University. Prior to starting Hedgemetrics, Inc. he consulted with hedge funds on quantitative risk control systems. Monsday, April 25 Hartford, CT ETFS: Myths and Realities - RSVP Today for QWAFAFEW-Hartford - Monday April 25 All are welcome. Please feel free to invite others Venue: City Steam Brewery Cafe, 942 Main Street, Hartford, CT Agenda 5:15 Registration Opens 5:45 Chapter Business - Krista M. Kennedy, QWAFAFEW-Hartford Steering Committee 5:50 David Abner, Director of Institutional ETF Sales at WisdomTree Asset Management Noted author and speaker David Abner will give the audience a "sneak preview" of excerpts from a soon-to-be-published paper which he coauthored on the title subject. There have been a number of highly publicized articles picked up by financial journalists withint the past 18 months warning of potential dangers and market aberrations supposedly associated with ETFs. David will address these articles and the fallacies associated with many of them. He will also provide his viewpoint on the realities of the ETF marketplace and what investors and advisors need to know to protect their clients adequately. 6:45 Q & A 7:00 Adjournment Please note new policy at Hartford QWAFAFEW for 2011. All programs to end by 7:00 PM. To RSVP: Please send an e-mail to [email protected] along with a name, phone number, organization (if any), e-mail, and membership status for each attendee. Admission (pay at the door please. ONLY cash or check (payable to QWAFAFEW) can be accepted. NO PLASTIC. Paper receipts are available at the registration table): $20 Members of the Hartford CFA Society or any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $30 for members of the CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, Students/alumni of any University, and those currently between positions; $40 for all others; 12-month chapter Membership: $50. If you decide to join at this meeting, pay $50 and attend this meeting for free. Hartford membership good for reduced rates at other QWAFAFEW meetings. To be added to our mailing list: please visit www.quaffers.org and fill out information in top right-hand section on registering to receive our newsletter.You will receive an e-mail asking you to click on a link to confirm; please do so. Hot and cold hors d’oeuvres are complimentary; cash bar Bio: David Abner is a well-known figure in the ETF markets, having spoken at many conferences and been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Traders Magazine and Risk Magazine. Abner is currently the Director of Institutional ETF Sales and Trading at WisdomTree Asset Management where his primary responsibilities include managing several channels of the institutional client base, focusing on trading firms, broker dealers, asset managers and hedge funds. He spends much of his time educating traders and investors on best practices for Exchange Traded Funds and implementation of the WisdomTree product suite. He gives graduate level seminars and has produced a Webinar on valuing and trading ETFs. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Abner was a Managing Director and the head of ETF Trading Americas at BNP Paribas in New York. While at BNP he ran proprietary strategies trading discounts and premiums on Closed End Funds and ETFs and built an ETF market making business. Abner started his career at Bear Stearns in 1992, where he ran the closedend fund trading group, traded Japanese convertible bond arbitrage and Asian equities, and, in 2000, was tasked with building the ETF trading business, which he ran until his departure from the firm in 2006. Abner holds a Master of Science in Management and Policy Analysis and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He is New York State certified in Labor Management Relations and is a member of the ETF committee of STANY (Security Traders Association of New York). He is also a member of the Economic Club of New York. Thanks to WisdomTree, www.wisdomtree.com for underwriting a substantial portion of this event. I hope to see you there. Tuesday, April 19 Boston, Ma Xi Li, Managing Partner XL Partners, Assessing Alternative Global Equity Investment Frameworks - Research Paper Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=174971 5 Abstract: In establishing the foundation of their investment process, global equity investors typically adopt a framework along geographic and/or industry dimensions. The chosen framework is then applied to the whole investment process including alpha generation, portfolio construction, and risk management, thus having fundamental implications for investment results. Our paper provides the first comprehensive study of the feasibility and optimality of alternative frameworks. We draw on the intuitions and methodology from the prior debate on whether country-specific or industry-specific sources of return variations dominate in the diversification benefits of global equity investing. We find that region-sector and region-industry frameworks are the optimal frameworks among the feasible ones. Our results are of importance to both stock selection and asset allocation investors in global equities Tuesday, April 5, 2011 San Francisco, CA San Francisco QWAFAFEW - Modeling Sovereign Correlations Tuesday April 5:30 PM - 8:30 PM Venue: L'Olivier French Restaurant 465 Davis Ct San Francisco, CA 94111 (415) 981-7824 Speaker: Vojislav Sesum, Ph.D., Moody's Analytics, KMV Portfolio Research - Abstract: The recent financial crisis has led to considerable concerns about the impact of sovereign credit risk on credit portfolios. This talk describes methodology for calculating the asset correlations between various sovereign credit exposures as well as the correlations between sovereign credit exposures and other asset classes, such as publicly traded firms. The methodology and estimation approach rely on the sovereign CDS market data and on GCorr, Moody's Analytics global multifactor asset correlation model. Once calculated, the sovereign correlations can serve as inputs to a portfolio optimizer or a risk estimation system. Vojislav Sesum is an Assistant Director in the KMV Portfolio Research group at Moody's Analytics. Use the acteva link below to register for the meeting or to purchase annual membership. QWAFAFEW members who have already paid their 2011 dues do not need to register. http://www.acteva.com/booking.cfm?bevaid=%20217887. The link is valid only before the meeting. Annual membership fee is a $60. Members will enjoy free attendance at meetings. One time registration is $20 and covers refreshments. To be added/removed to the SF QWAFAFEW mailing list please send email to [email protected]. For general inquiries, please send email to [email protected] Tuesday, March 29 New York, NY Evolution of Quantitative Equity Investment Methodologies and Processes - a Panel Discussion Panelists: Indrani De, PhD, Director of Quantitative Research, New Amsterdam Partners Jaime Fitzgerald, President and Founder, Fitzgerald Analytics Margaret Stumpp, PhD, Chief Investment Officer, Quantitative Management Associates (QM Associates, a Prudential company) Moderator: Herbert Blank, SVP-Quantitative Products, Rapid Ratings International All are welcome to attend. You need not be a member to attend this meeting. Please come as early as you can as we have a lot of ground to cover and 3 great panelists. Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. www.patrickconways.com RSVP to [email protected] and March 29th in Subject Line. In text body, please provide the names, phone numbers, company name, emails, and membership status for each attendee. Admission Fees accepted at door: $30 for Paid-up Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $40 for members of CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, GARP, SPA, or any CFAs, unemployed students and/or members of this Linked-In group; $50 for all other RSVPs Special Offer: Pay 2011 NYC-Chapter Membership dues of $100 at door and attend this meeting for free. If you wish to become a member by mail, please visit www.quaffers.org and follow membership link in top left tab. If you are not now on this mailing list, sign up at www.quaffers.org to receive these email announcements directly. AGENDA 5:20- 6:10 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:10 - 6:15 Chapter Business 6:15 - 6:20 Introduction of Panelists, C. Michael Carty, Chapter President 6:20 - 6:35 Importance of Disciplined Investment Processes and the Role of Quantitative Methodologies - My Perspective - Indrani De, Director of Quantitative Research, New Amsterdam Partners 6:35- 6:50 Importance of Disciplined Investment Processes and the Role of Quantitative Methodologies - My Perspective - Margaret Stumpp, Chief Investment Officer, QM Associates 6:50- 7:05 Importance of Disciplined Investment Processes and the Role of Quantitative Methodologies - My Perspective - Jaime Fitzgerald, President and Founder, Fitzgerald Analytics 7:05 – 7:20 Break 7:20 – 8:15 Panel Discussion (All of the Above) - Evolution of quantitative investment methods over time - what have we learned? Bios Indrani De, CFA, Director of Quantitative Research, received an undergraduate degree in Economics (Honors) from the University of Delhi, and a graduate business degree from the Indian Institute of Management. Ms. De completed coursework for a PhD (Business-Major in Finance) at the City University of New York. Prior to her doctoral studies, Ms. De worked as an Investment Analyst for GE Capital Services. Ms. De has also worked in equity investment positions at Birla Global Finance and 20th Century Venture Capital. In addition, she has been published in the Journal of Investing and NYSSA Financial Professionals' Post. Jaime Fitzgerald is the Founder and President of Fitzgerald Analytics, a “next generation” consulting firm which uses quantitative methods, technology, and process innovation to convert "Data to Dollars™." Jaime is a frequent speaker at national conferences on the subject of innovation in data, technology, and analytics. The morning after joining our panel, Jaime will give the keynote presentation and facilitate a panel discussion on “Analytics in Financial Services,” at an event co-sponsored by The Data Warehousing Institute and the New York Technology Council. He is the co-author of several published articles, including two articles in the Journal of Management Development. Previously, Jaime worked for First Manhattan Consulting Group and Novantas LLC. He received his BA in economics, with honors, from Harvard University. Margaret Stumpp, PhD is the Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Management Associates (QMA). She is portfolio manager for equity portfolios for institutional investors and mutual fund clients and is extensively involved in quantitative research in asset allocation, security selection and portfolio construction. Maggie has published articles on finance and economics in numerous publications, including The Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Portfolio Management, The Journal of Investment Management and Award Papers in Public Utility Economics. Maggie earned a BA cum laude with distinction in Economics from Boston University and holds an AM and PhD in Economics from Brown University. Herbert Blank (moderator) is Senior Vice President of Rapid Ratings International and Head of its Quantitative Products group. Among his responsibilities are business development and product develoment. Working with QED International, the consulting firm he founded in 1997, Herb had been a consultant to Rapid Ratings for more than three years. Among the more noteworthy ETF launches on which Herb consulted were iShares and Van Eck Market Vectors. He has also written articles and book chapters on ETFs and index issues. Prior to this, Herb managed the CountryBaskets Index Fund ETF Portfolios for Deutsche Bank; these were the first ETFs to trade on the NYSE. Prior stops included Value Line and Fidelity Bank. Herb is Vice President and Steering Committee Chair man of QWAFAFEW-NYC. He holds a graduate degree from the Stern School of Business of NYC and a BA in Mathematics from the University of Pennsylvania. Wednesday, March 16 New York, NY "Minimum Volatility Portfolios" - WEDNESDAY March 16, 2011 Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, Capital IQ "Leveraging Minimum Variance to Enhance Portfolio Returns" Yin Luo, Managing Director and Head of Global Quantitative Strategy, Deutsche Bank Securities "The Puzzling Relationship between Risk and Return - Defensive and Offensive strategies" All are welcome to attend. You need not be a member to attend this meeting. Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:10 Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, Capital IQ, "Leveraging Minimum Variance to Enhance Portfolio Returns" Analysis shows that the performance of certain minimum variance portfolios can provide an after-transaction-costs annual return as much as twice that of the S&P 500 with half the realized volatility. Leveraging our proprietary US Fundamental Risk Model and Alphaworks factor library, we demonstrate how the minimum variance portfolio can be used in combination with tilts to other factors. We discuss the difficultly in beating the minimum variance portfolio, and how style tilts can be implemented to achieve a similar level of return with lower turnover, but higher realized risk. By extension, our research suggests that for many active strategies the inclusion of the minimum variance objective, while maintaining strong tilts to the original strategy is likely to enhance manager performance. 7:15 – 7:25 Break 7:25 – 8:15 Yin Luo, Managing Director and Head of Global Quantitative Strategy, Deutsche Bank Securities,"The Puzzling Relationship between Risk and Return - Defensive and Offensive strategies" - lMinimum volatility portfolios are not new. Although they have some intriguing properties, low risk is not necessarily one of them. This presentation explores this puzzling relationship and examines some defensive and offensive applications of the construct. Bios Ruben Falk has been with Standard & Poor's Capital IQ and Clarifi in Europe and the US since 2006. Prior to that he was Founder and CEO of marketscalpel.com. From 1999-2002, Ruben was a DIrector for UBS Investment Bank after having served 3 years with LEK Consulting. Ruben has his masters degree in business from the Walter Haas School of University of California at Berkeley. Yin Luo iis Managing Director and Head of Global Quantitative Strategy for Deutsche Bank Securities. In the prior decade he held similar positions with CIBC World Markets and MAcquarie Capital Markets. Earlier stops included KPMG and TD Canada Trust. His Masters in Accounting is from University of Toronto and his undergraduate degree is from Renmin University in China. Thanks to Capital IQ for helping to underwrite the cost of this event Wednesday, Mar Denver, CO Forecast Bias Risk in Optimized Portfolios - Jennifer Bender PhD, VP 16, 2011 - Applied Research, MSCI, Inc. “Forecast Risk Bias in Optimized Portfolios”: When there is noise in a covariance matrix, portfolio optimization tends to produce portfolios for which the risk forecasts are underestimates of the true risk. In this paper, we take a closer look at the connection between estimation error and the underestimation of the risk of optimized portfolios. We pay special attention to the case in which returns have a known factor structure. There, the bias in optimization can be reduced dramatically by using a covariance matrix based on a factor model, rather than one computed from historical asset covariances. Moreover, our analysis reveals that for many active portfolios, the bias in factor-model forecasts is less than previously thought. Lastly, we discuss the role of constraints in mitigating risk forecasting bias. Jennifer Bender is a Vice President in Applied Research at MSCI Inc., a publicly traded company (NYSE: MSCI) and a leading global provider of investment decision support tools, including indices and portfolio risk and performance analytics. MSCI has clients in over 60 countries, and more than 2,000 employees located around the world. Jennifer works on portfolio management and risk related research for asset owners and investment managers. Previously Ms. Bender was a quantitative analyst at State Street Associates. Ms. Bender’s research areas in addition to risk management and portfolio theory include investor behavior, market microstructure, market efficiency and asset pricing. Ms. Bender has held research assistantships at Harvard Business School and MIT, and spent four years as an economist for Standard & Poor's DRI. Ms. Bender holds a PhD and MS from Brandeis University in International Economics and Finance. Date/Time: Wednesday, March 16th, 2011, at 5:30PM. Networking, hors d'oeuvres (including vegetarian options), 6:15 PM: Presentation Location: Marco's Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer St., Denver Admission: Free for Members; $45 for Guests RSVP: Secure your seat by emailing your registration and sending your check to the following address prior to the event. Please make checks payable to QWAFAFEW Denver. Address: 80120 Secretarial Solutions, 6057 S. Lakeview St., Littleton CO Questions: Website: Email [email protected] www.qwafafew.org See our website http://www.qwafafew.org/index.php/chapters/denver for information about upcoming events. You'll also find copies of presentations and background material from past meetings. Tuesday, Mar 15, 2011 Boston, MA Variations on Minimum Variance - Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, Capital IQ RSVP: e-mail Hugh Crowther at [email protected] Abstract: Analysis shows that the performance of certain minimum variance portfolios can provide an after-transaction-costs annual return significantly higher than the S&P 500 with much less volatility. Leveraging our style based US Fundamental Risk Model, we demonstrate how the minimum variance portfolio can be used in combination with style tilts. We discuss the difficultly in beating the unconstrained minimum variance portfolio, and how style tilts can be implemented to achieve higher levels of return without commensurately higher risk. By extension, our research suggests that for many active strategies the inclusion of a minimum variance objective, while maintaining strong tilts to the original strategy, is likely to enhance manager performance. Ruben Falk, Senior Product Manager, Capital IQ, has been with Standard & Poor's Capital IQ and ClariFI in Europe and the US since 2006. Prior to that he was Founder and CEO of marketscalpel.com. From 1995-2002, Ruben was a Director with UBS Investment Bank after having served 3 years with LEK Consulting. Ruben has his masters degree in finance from the Walter Haas School of University of California at Berkeley. Time: 6:15 sharpe. Venue: 3rd Floor of Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street. Guest fee for attendance is $30. Members attend at no charge. If you are not yet a member or have not paid your dues lately, you may pay your annual dues of $150 (your membership year starts on the day you pay). We will be raising annual dues soon, and turning over record-keeping to a professional service, so it would behoove you to pay now in order to delay your own dues increase! You may bring cash or check for either amount ($150 or $30) made out to "QWAFAFEW" and give it to our Treasurer, Hugh Crowther. Please let us know if you intend to come to the meeting. Walk-ins are always welcome; still, we greatly appreciate all RSVPs so that we can have adequate food and drink on hand Thursday, Mar 10, 2011 Chicago, IL Thursday March 10, Chicago IL - A Joint Meeting with Chicago QWAFAFEW (http://www.qwafafew.org) and Chicago PRMIA (www.prmia.org). "The Future of Exchanges: Technology, Risk, Regulation, CDS Clearing and Competition." The Speakers for the March meeting are: [1] Mr. Chris Edmonds, ICE Clearing; [2] Dr. Michael Gorham, IIT; [3] Mr. Richard Heckinger, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Moderator: Dr. Barry Feldman, Russell Investments Please RSVP via Acteva http://www.acteva.com/go/ChicagoQWAFAFEW by March 3. Alternatively, please RSVP to [email protected] and pay $15 at the door. Please note that due to security policies in the building, we cannot accomodate walk-ins. Thank you to Mr. Sanjay Arya, Director of Morningstar Indexes at Morningstar Inc., for hosting this meeting. Tuesday, Mar 8, San SF QWAFAFEW - Tuesday March 8th Speakers: Andrew 2011 Francisco, CA Rudd, CEO & S Raj Rajagopal, Associate Portfolio Manager Advisor Software Topic: Goal-driven Investing -- LDI for Retail Investors Venue: L'Olivier French Restaurant. L'Olivier is located at 465 Davis Ct, San Francisco, 94111, about 4 1/2 blocks north of Market Street from the Embarcadero BART station. Start time: 5:30 PM; End time: 7:30 PM Registration and more info: http://www.acteva.com/booking.cfm?bevaid=+216084 Payment Options through Acteva.com only Pay for the March 8th meeting only. Price: $20.00 Annual Membership includes attendance at all 2011 events. Price: $60.00 (better deal) Speakers: Andrew Rudd, CEO & S Raj Rajagopal, Associate Portfolio Manager Advisor Software Topic: Goal-driven Investing -- LDI for Retail Investors Abstract: This talk will stress that a holistic view of investors' resources and goals is essential for a more reliable portfolio construction and asset allocation. Rather than an asset-only approach aiming to beat some arbitrary benchmark, we identify a balance-sheet approach to identify client goals and inventory client resources, then develop a strategy that is optimized to most efficiently fund the client goals. It is superior because the resulting asset-allocation is more resilient to the vagaries of future asset class returns. This approach rests on the fundamental premise that the amount of surplus or 'cushion' that an investor has between his/her resources and his/her commitments should influence how much risk he/she is willing to tolerate in the portfolio asset allocation. It differs from the traditional method in that it uses a quantitative balance-sheet approach to measure this cushion and so identify the client's risk capacity, rather than a psychological risk questionnaire to measure clients' risk tolerance. Speaker Bios: Dr. Andrew Rudd is the Chairman and CEO of Advisor Software. He is an expert in asset allocation, modern portfolio theory, risk management, and performance measurement. Andrew is also a co-founder and former chairman and CEO of Barra, Inc., where he served as CEO from 1984 to 1999. He is the co-author of two industry-leading books on institutional investing: "Modern Portfolio Theory: The Principles of Investment Management" and "Option Pricing". S. Raj Rajagopal is an Associate Portfolio Manager at Advisor Partners. Previously, he was a portfolio manager at the Cayuga Fund, LLC. He has also worked for JP Morgan Chase and Capital One. He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) He holds a B.Tech and a M.Tech from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India, a MS from the University of Maryland, College Park and a MBA from Cornell University. Tuesday, Mar 15, 2011 Boston, MA Variations on Minimum Variance - Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, Capital IQ RSVP: e-mail Hugh Crowther at [email protected] Abstract: Analysis shows that the performance of certain minimum variance portfolios can provide an after-transaction-costs annual return significantly higher than the S&P 500 with much less volatility. Leveraging our style based US Fundamental Risk Model, we demonstrate how the minimum variance portfolio can be used in combination with style tilts. We discuss the difficultly in beating the unconstrained minimum variance portfolio, and how style tilts can be implemented to achieve higher levels of return without commensurately higher risk. By extension, our research suggests that for many active strategies the inclusion of a minimum variance objective, while maintaining strong tilts to the original strategy, is likely to enhance manager performance. Ruben Falk, Senior Product Manager, Capital IQ, has been with Standard & Poor's Capital IQ and ClariFI in Europe and the US since 2006. Prior to that he was Founder and CEO of marketscalpel.com. From 1995-2002, Ruben was a Director with UBS Investment Bank after having served 3 years with LEK Consulting. Ruben has his masters degree in finance from the Walter Haas School of University of California at Berkeley. Time: 6:15 sharpe. Venue: 3rd Floor of Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street. Guest fee for attendance is $30. Members attend at no charge. If you are not yet a member or have not paid your dues lately, you may pay your annual dues of $150 (your membership year starts on the day you pay). We will be raising annual dues soon, and turning over record-keeping to a professional service, so it would behoove you to pay now in order to delay your own dues increase! You may bring cash or check for either amount ($150 or $30) made out to "QWAFAFEW" and give it to our Treasurer, Hugh Crowther. Please let us know if you intend to come to the meeting. Walk-ins are always welcome; still, we greatly appreciate all RSVPs so that we can have adequate food and drink on hand Tuesday, Feb 22, New York, 2011 NY Jim K. Liew, PhD, NYU Stern "FX Optimal Pairs for Hedge Funds" Davi Valledao and Astrid Prajogo, Princeton U- "The Value of Cash in a Corporate Setting" New York Chapter - papers available on www.quaffers.org in center section ACADEMIC RESEARCH NIGHT featuring two breakthrough studies AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:10 Jimmy Liew, PhD, Adjunct Assistant Professor, New York University Stern School of Business - "Optimal FX Pairs for Hedge Funds" 7:10 – 7:25 Break 7:25 – 8:10 Doctoral Candidates Astrid Prajogo and Davi Valladao Princeton University "The Corporate Cash Holdings Anomaly" - Classical economic theory views cash holding as costly to shareholders. The agency cost theory also argues that excess cash holding allows managers to more easily invest in value-decreasing projects, which are in conflict with shareholders' interest. However, corporations hold cash to maintain the ability to finance investments when the current cash flow is insufficient to meet investment demands. We start our discussion with some empirical evidence on corporate cash holding behavior and its impact on the firm’s stock returns. Then, we present a multi-period model of a firm facing stochastic investment opportunities and cost of external financing. Our model suggests that under a regime-switching framework, the optimal policy is to save cash during times of economic expansion and employ that cash savings when external financing is most costly. Bios Jim K. Liew, Ph.D., CEO at Alpha Quant Club - Dr. Liew obtained his Ph.D. in Finance from Columbia Business School. He enjoys teaching Statistical Arbitrage at Columbia, Baruch, and Johns Hopkins, and Topics in Hedge Fund Strategies at NYU Stern School of Business, as an Adjunct Professor. Dr. Liew has previously worked at a large macro quant fund and an ultra-high frequency stat arb fund, where he built, back-tested, and implemented systematic investment strategies. Dr. Liew has published numerous papers with regards to hedge fund investing and quantitative investment strategies Astrid Prajogo is a PhD Candidate in Operations Research and Financial Engineering at Princeton University. Prior to her studies at Princeton University, Astrid was a derivative valuation consultant at Duff & Phelps. She also holds a Master’s degree in Financial Mathematics from Stanford University and Bachelor’s degrees in Mathematics and Economics from the University of California-Irvine. Davi Valladão is PhD candidate at the Electrical Engineering Department at Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Brazil. He is also a visiting student research collaborator in Operations Research and Financial Engineering at Princeton University and his concentration area is decision support systems applied to finance. Davi participated in Asset and Liability Management (ALM)research and development projectsfor the largest Brazilian oil company and for the public pension fund of Angola. He has also a Master's degree in Actuarial Science and Finance (2008) and a Bachelor’s degree in Electrical and Industrial Engineering (2006) at PUC-Rio.. Wednesday, Feb Princeton, 16, 2011 NJ Quantifying Sustainability Dan diBartolomeo, Founder and Principal, Northfield Information Systems "Equity Risk, Credit Risk, and Sustainability" John Prestbo, Senior Editor, Dow Jones Indexes "The Quantitative Side of Sustainable Investing" Nassau Club, 6 Mercer Street, Princeton, NJ 08540 - Free parking in back AGENDA 5:15 – 5:50 PM Registration, Refreshments, and Networking 5:50 – 6:00 PM Welcome to QWAFAFEW – H. Blank 6:00 – 7:25 PM – Dan DiBartolomeo 7:25 - 8:15 PM - John Prestbo Wednesday, Feb Denver, CO Modern Microstructure - From the Flash Crash to High 16, 2011 Frequency Trading - Alison Crosthwait, Instinet Marco's Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer Street Presentation available by going to www.qwafafew.org and going to the Denver page. Alison Crosthwait is Instinet’s Director of Global Trading Research. In this role, she leads the firm’s global market microstructure research publishing efforts. Ms. Crosthwait was previously Head of Research at ITG Canada. Prior to that, she was a program trader at ITG, primarily covering quantitative investment firms. Ms. Crosthwait also held various roles in Goldman Sachs’ high frequency trading group and on Credit Suisse’s program trading desk. She is a CFA charter holder and holds a Masters degree in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. Questions: Please e-mail [email protected] RSVP: Secure your seat by emailing your registration and sending your check to the following address prior to the event. Please make checks payable to QWAFAFEW Denver. Address: Secretarial Solutions, 6057 S. Lakeview St., Littleton CO 80120 Questions: Email [email protected] Website: www.qwafafew.org See our website http://www.qwafafew.org/index.php/chapters/denver for information about upcoming events. You'll also find copies of presentations and background material from past meetings. Tuesday, Feb 15, Boston, 2011 MA Motivational Performance Analysis - Jarrod Wilcox, Wilcox Investment Time: 6:15 PM sharpe 3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street RSVP to [email protected] Investment performance measurement that does not lead to improvements in investor welfare seems beside the point. Yet that appears typical in practice, not only for the individual investor but also for enterprise risk management. The financial service industry needs to add more value to avoid commoditization and over-regulation. This presentation shows how to better design motivational performance measures negotiated among investors, fiduciaries and investment managers. Five examples are provided to: 1) integrate risk and return objectives to be congruent with best portfolio optimization, 2) take more comprehensive account of the goals of after-tax optimization, 3) use leveraged log returns to account for tail risks, 4) motivate managers responsible for small portions of the portfolio or balance sheet 5) simulate Bayesian probability to provide perspective Jarrod Wilcox has worked as portfolio manager, director of research, and chief investment officer, investing in US stocks, international stocks, bonds, and currencies, working closely in many cases with clients with special needs, both taxable and tax exempt. He is a a former business school teacher, management consultant, and investment manager. Wednesday San January 26, 2011 Francisco, CA Dynamic and Defensive Equity Strategies Barry Feldman, Ph.D., CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Russell Investments This presentation asserts that expansion of the equity style model is long overdue. Recent research (by Baker, Bradley and Wurgler) implies the lack of variety in equity style benchmarks is a drag on market efficiency and a cause of the low volatility anomaly. What directions are promising for the development of new equity styles and what do manager histories tell us about these directions? Learn more about SF QWAFAFEW at http://sites.google.com/site/sfqwafafew/Home Tuesday, New York, January 25, 2011 NY "Pension Year in Review and Portfolio Risk Mitigation" TUESDAY January 25, 2011 Ron Ryan, CEO and Chief Financial Risk Officer, Ryan ALM Jim Pritchard, CFO, Swan Consulting AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:00 Ron Ryan, “Pension Crisis 2011" How did pension assets and liabilities perform? How realistic are plan actuarial assumptions now? A deeper dive into decision-making processes. Process improvements that can help fiduciaries achieve their goals 7:00 – 7:15 Break 7:15 – 8:10 Jim Pritchard, "Portfolio Risk Mitigation: Traditional Methods vs. New Techniques" The intent of this presentation is to look at asset allocation to determine if it does indeed help investors protect against significant losses or even help in down markets. Asset allocation, market timing and other previously accepted risk mitigation techniques will be broken down and analyzed as to their effectiveness. In addition, more recent developments in portfolio protection and portfolio management will be reviewed and analyzed. Research will be presented from industry and academic sources that examine market timing, strategy/dynamic/tactical allocation, de-risking, hedging and various income strategies. This research review will bring some surprising “out-of-the box” conclusions on how portfolios are being managed today and should be managed going forward. January 19, 2011 Denver, CO Behavioral Finance: Are the Disciples Profiting from the Wednesday Doctrine? Presented by Dr. Vaneesha Boney Where: Marco's Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer St., Denver Start time: Wed, January 19, 2011 - 5:30 PM Ending time: Wed, January 19, 2011 - 7:30 PM Description: Behavioral finance has received a great deal of attention in academia over the past 15 years or so. But attention in academia does not always correspond with real-world acceptance or success. We analyze 16 mutual funds that are self-proclaimed or media-identified disciples of behavioral finance to determine whether 1) they successfully attract investment dollars and 2) their strategies earn abnormal returns for their investors. We find these funds are successfully attracting investment dollars, outperform S&P 500 index funds, load especially heavily on Fama and French’s HML factor, but fail to earn risk-adjusted abnormal returns. Our results suggest using behavioral finance in a mutual fund's investing strategy may be of more benefit as a marketing tool than as a means of earning abnormal returns. Speaker: Vaneesha Boney, Reiman School of Finance, University of Denver January 19, 2011 Boston, Wednesday MA Chasing Bernie Madoff - Behind the Scenes Perspectives by Four Boston QWAFAFEW Members Where: 3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street Start time: Wed, January 19, 2011 - 6:15 PM Sharpe Description: Harry Markopolos, co-author of the NY Times Best-seller "No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller" (Wiley 2010) will be presenting on several of the glaring capital markets and accounting red flags that should have been obvious to the numerous MBA's, CFA's, Ph.D.'s and other socalled investment professionals that all was not right with Bernard L. Madoff's hedge fund operation. Mr. Markopolos will take you behind the scenes into his four-man Madoff team's eight-and-a-half year investigation across two continents. As a special treat, we have three Boston QWAFAFEW members serving as discussants who were intimately involved with investigating Madoff. "No One Would Listen" co-Author and investigative team member Frank Casey, Dan DiBartolomeo, and Dave Henry. Members-only. RSVP to: [email protected]. December 21, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA Time: 6:15 PM sharpe 3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street RSVP to [email protected] A Holiday QWAFAFEW discussion led by LAWRENCE POHLMAN, Ph.D. RETURN FORECASTING BY QUANTILE REGRESSION Abstract A typical quantitative approach for analyzing and forecasting equity returns is to build a model based upon a set of factors and then estimate the model based upon a set of data and some type of least squares procedure. However, as the data in equity markets is usually far from well behaved and some standard statistical assumptions do not hold, this procedure can miss significant relationships. This paper uses the quantile regression technique to reveal effects that are missed by OLS. The empirical results using S&P500 data show dramatic improvement in performance using QR forecasts. LARRY POHLMAN is the Chief Investment Officer of the BNP PARIBAS INVESTMENT PARTNERS Quant Equity Strategies.Previously, Larry was a partner at Panagora Asset Management where he directed research for active global equities, fixed income, currencies and asset allocation products totalling USD18 billion. He also worked at Independence Investment Associates where he was in charge of fixed income and currency research. Larry was one of the first members of Blackrock Financial Management where he was Vice President within the Fixed Income Portfolio Engineering group. He started his financial career at Goldman Sachs in Mortgage Securities research. Larry has five degrees from Columbia University: Ph.D. in Finance, Masters in Finance, MBA, MS in Operations Research, and BS in Nuclear Engineering. December 9, 2010 Thursday Princeton, NJ “Leveraging Minimum Variance to Enhance Portfolio Returns" in Princeton, NJ Speaker: Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, S & P Capital IQ/ClariFI Discussants: Susan Hume PhD, The College of New Jersey William Rafter PhD, MathInvest Nassau Club, 6 Mercer Street, Princeton, NJ 08540 - Free parking in back $20 Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $30 Members of any CFA Society, CQA, SQA, PRMIA, GARP, holders of CAIA, CMT, or CFP Charter,Students/alumni of any NJ University, and those currently between positions; $40 all others 12-month Membership $50 (first meeting free with Membership fee) Hot and cold hors d’oeuvres are FREE; Wine, beer, and soft drinks also FREE until 6:30 PM To RSVP: Send an e-mail to [email protected] along with name, phone number, organization (if any), e-mail, and membership status. ONLY cash or check (payable to QWAFAFEW) can be accepted. NO PLASTIC. Paper receipts are available at the registration table upon request. To be added to our mailing list: please go to www.quaffers.org and sign up on the form in the top right-hand corner. You will need to verify your address. You will find past presentations and other area events also listed on the sites. To post an event, job, or relevant link on www.quaffers.org please e-mail [email protected]. Finally, Princeton now has its own page on www.qwafafew.org. AGENDA 5:30 – 6:10 PM Registration, Refreshments, and Networking 6:10 - 6:15 PM Chapter Business & Introductions of Speakers – Herbert Blank 6:15 Ruben Falk, Senior Manager, CapitalIQ Leveraging Minimum Variance to Enhance Portfolio Returns In this presentation, we review Capital IQ’s recent analysis in constructing style neutral minimum variance portfolios. Our analysis suggests that the performance of certain minimum variance portfolios can provide an after transaction costs annual return as much as twice that of the S&P 500 with half its realized volatility. Leveraging our proprietary US Fundamental Risk Model and Alphaworks factor library, we demonstrate how the minimum variance portfolio can be used in combination with tilts to other factors, such as Growth, Value, Price Momentum, Analyst Expectations, Capital Efficiency, and Earnings Quality. We discuss the difficultly in beating the minimum variance portfolio, and how style tilts can be implemented to achieve a similar level of return with lower turnover, but higher realized risk. By extension, our research suggests that for many active strategies the inclusion of the minimum variance objective, while maintaining strong tilts to the original strategy is likely to enhance manager performance. 7:00 Discussants Forum with Susan Hume and Bill Rafter 7:30 Q & A 7:45 Adjournment Thanks to Capital IQ for underwriting a substantial portion of this event. OUR SPEAKERS Ruben Falk, Senior Product Manager, Capital IQ, has been with Capital IQ and Capital IQ’s ClariFI in Europe and the US since 2006. Prior to that he was Founder and CEO of marketscalpel.com. From 1996-2002, Ruben was a Director with UBS Investment Bank after having served three years with LEK Consulting. Ruben has his Master’s degree in finance from the Walter Haas School at the University of California at Berkeley Susan Hume, PhD,Associate Professor of Finance and International Business School of Business, The College of New Jersey (TCNJ), has teaching, research and professional experience in the areas of International Finance and Capital Markets, Banking, and Derivatives Securities. She collaborates with students on research, most recently on domestic microfinance and social responsibility. She is currently teaching courses in corporate finance, international finance and capital markets, currency crises and finance capstone in research at TCNJ. She has also taught similar courses at Baruch College and for their Executive business program in Taiwan. She earned her doctorate in Finance and Economics at Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business, masters' degree from Rutgers School of Management and BA in American Studies from Douglass College, Rutgers University. She has worked extensively in hedging and derivatives securities, bank lending and bank regulations. Visit her at http://www.tcnj.edu/~business/faculty/hume.html William Rafter, PhD, President of Mathematical Investment Decisions, Inc., presides over a money management firm that also licenses its research to outside advisors. He has managed hedge funds for over 20 years, and has been fully licensed as a securities and financial principal. As an adjunct professor of finance at Rutgers University, Bill is reported to have been rather outspoken in his criticism of the Modern Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Mr. Rafter was educated at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the Haas Graduate School of Business Administration of the University of California, Berkeley. He spoke at Princeton QWAFAFEW in May and moderated a panel at QWAFAFEW-NYC in June 2010. December 8, 2010 Wednesday New York, NY "Quantifying Sustainability" - WEDNESDAY December 8, 2010 Dan diBartolomeo, Founder and Principal, Northfield Information Systems "Equity Risk, Credit Risk, and Sustainability" Gail Doolin, SVP-Global Content, Thomson Reuters - "Components of Sustainability" All are welcome to attend. You need not be a member to attend this meeting. Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. Admission Fees (You need not be a member to attend – but there ARE benefits to membership): $30 for Paid-up Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $40 for members of CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, GARP, SPA, or any CFAs, unemployed students and/or members of this Linked-In group; $50 for all other RSVPs RSVP to [email protected] and put date of event you wish to attend in Subject Line. In text body, please provide the names, phone numbers, organizations (if any), emails, and membership status for each attendee. ONLY cash or check (to QWAFAFEW) can be accepted. NO PLASTIC paper receipts available. SPECIAL OFFER for NEW (non-2010) Members ONLY - Pay 2011 dues of $100 and attend this meeting for free. SPECIAL OFFER for EXISTING Members: Renew your membership for 2011 at the grandfathered rate of $90 and attend this meeting for free. AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business - President Mike Carty 6:20 – 7:10 Dan diBartolomeo, “Equity Risk, Credit Risk and Sustainability”" Linking credit risk structural models with multifactor equity risk models provide consistent measures of equity risk, credit risk, and default correlation. This analysis allows for the development of a quantitative construct measuring the "sustainability" of firms. An empirical analysis of all US listed equities from 1992 to present confirms the validity of the more commonly held constructs of sustainable investing. QWAFAFEW veteran Dan diBartolomeo also demonstrates how this method may also be applied to quantify the level of systemic risk to developed economies. 7:10 – 7:25 Break 7:25 – 8:10 Gail Doolin, "Components of Sustainability" Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) issues are increasingly gaining attention from all types of stakeholders, ranging from government to media to investors and asset managers. As more asset managers assess ESG exposure, and even use it as a basis for investing, it becomes important to understand and evaluate the degree to which ESG efforts can be maintained, creating long-term value, while reducing risk. Gail Doolin provides us with expertise on sustainability data content and strategy while QWAFAFEW veteran Danielle Lawson provides insights on how quants can backtest these data and integrate them into their models. Recommended Pre-Meeting Reading by Dan diBartolomeo http://www.northinfo.com/documents/374.pdf For background info containing underpinnings behind the second presentation, please visit www.asset4.com Bios Dan diBartolemeo is President and founder of Northfield Information Services, Inc. Based in Boston since 1986, Northfield develops quantitative models of financial markets. The firm’s clients include nearly three hundred financial institutions in twenty countries. Before starting Northfield, Dan held the position of Director of Research at a New York investment firm, where he was responsible for investment strategy and securities research. Dan was interviewed for a FactSet podcast about his role in providing key statistical analysis that fellow QWAFAFEW member Harry Markopolos submitted to the SEC in connection to the Bernard Madoff Investigation. In addition to being an active member of QWAFAFEW, Dan serves on the Board of Directors of the CQA and the advisory board of the IAFE. Dan writes and lectures extensively and frequently presents papers at academic and industry meetings, in addition to teaching a course in Advanced Quantitative Techniques for the Boston Security Analysts Society. He is also a Visiting Professor at the CARISMA research center of Brunel University in London. Mr. diBartolomeo has written extensively for the CFA Research Foundation. Dan’s degree in applied physics is from Cornell University. Gail Doolin, CFA is on the Content Strategy team for Investment & Advisory Division within Thomson Reuters. In this role, she was actively involved in Thomson Reuters’ acquisition of Asset4, a leading provider of ESG content, in 2009. The ESG content strategy is currently focused on integrating this content into Thomson Reuters strategic products while continuing to expand coverage. Prior to joining Thomson Financial in 2005, Gail worked at Bloomberg where she focused on fixed income derivatives and portfolio risk management. She previously managed fixed income portfolios and traded both taxable and tax-exempt bonds. November 17, 2010 Wednesday Denver, CO Denver QWAFAFEW Speaker: Garland Durham, PhD, Professor of Finance at the Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado, Boulder Topic: Beyond Stochastic Volatilty Venue: Marco's Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer Street Please contact <a href="[email protected]" target="_blank">[email protected]</a>for more details This talk examines the relationship between real-world distributions of S&P 500 index returns and option-implied return distributions. While a great deal of attention has been focused on stochastic volatility in stock returns, there is strong evidence suggesting that return distributions have timevarying skewness and kurtosis as well. This presentation investigates several models with features that enable them to generate return distributions with these characteristics. Timevariation in the strength of the "leverage effect" and volatility of volatility both turn out to be important. We then test to see whether changes in these features of the physical measure also have explanatory power for changes in the shape of the optionimplied volatility surface. We find that the models do have strong explanatory power, suggesting that variation in the shape of the volatility surface is not just due to risk premia, but is linked to variation in the underlying physical process. November 17, 2010 Wednesday San Francisco, CA San Francisco QWAFAFEW Speaker: Jose Menchero, Executive Director and Global Head of Equity Factor Model Research at MSCI Barra Topic: "Global Cross-Sectional Volatility Analysis" Cross-sectional volatility (CSV) is critical because it represents the opportunity to outperform a benchmark. In this presentation, we present an exact methodology for decomposing CSV into contributions from individual factors. Our approach treats countries, industries, and style factors on an equal basis. We employ our framework to investigate several relevant questions in the global equity markets, such as the importance of industries versus countries, emerging markets versus developed markets, or the strength of style factors relative to industries or countries. We also extend our methodology to decompose and analyze the root mean squared (RMS) return, which is of greater relevance to absolute return managers San Francisco QWAFAFEW Steering Committee Jim Quinn, Quantal International - SF chapter chairman Members (Alphabetical Order) Anna Coppola, Flagship Global, Inc. Ralph Goldsticker, Mellon Capital Management John Lederle, Bank of the West Rosy Macedo, Thomas J Watson Fellowship Program Robert Maxim, Duff & Phelps Irene Rusman, Oracle Seth Stafford, Oracle Tjisana Lewis, TBD Annual membership fee is a $60. Members will enjoy free attendance at meetings. One time registration is $20 and covers refreshments. To be added/removed to the SF QWAFAFEW mailing list please send email to [email protected]. For general inquiries, please send email to [email protected] November 17, 2010 Wednesday New York, NY QWAFAFEW-NYC Martin Fridson CFA, BNP Paribas , "Running the Numbers on HighYield Bonds" Max Golts, Bay Hill Capital, "Diversification, Optimization and Liquidity" All are welcome to attend. Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. All are welcome. Admission Fees (You need not be a member to attend – but there ARE benefits to membership): $30 for Paid-up Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $40 for members of CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, GARP, SPA, or any CFAs, unemployed students and/or members of this Linked-In group; $50 for all other RSVPs RSVP to [email protected] and put date of event you wish to attend in Subject Line. In text body, please provide the names, phone numbers, organizations (if any), emails, and membership status for each attendee. ONLY cash or check (to QWAFAFEW) can be accepted. NO PLASTIC paper receipts available. 2010 Chapter Membership still $90 but this meeting free if you purchase at the door. Dress is casual. Normal rules of etiquette are not observed - just shout out your comments & questions. SPECIAL OFFER for NEW (non-2010) Members ONLY - Pay 2011 dues of $100 and attend this meeting for free. SPECIAL OFFER for EXISTING Members: Renew your membershio for 2011 at the grandfathered rate of $90 and attend this meeting for free. AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:00 Martin Fridson, Fridson Investment Advisors, "Running the Numbers on High-Yield Bonds" Sophisticated quantitative methods have not historically dominated the analysis of high yield bonds, which are prone to idiosyncratic credit risk at and imprecise pricing at the individual issue level. Quantitative approaches can be productive, however, at the level of sectors and the market a a whole. Martin will present cutting-edge methods for forecasting default rates, determining when the high yield sector is under- or overvalued, quantifying the risk of a double-dip recession, and estimating future returns of the high yield index's rating subdivisions. 7:00 – 7:15 Break 7:15 – 8:10 Max Golts, Bay Hill Capital Management, "Diversification, Optimization and Liquidity" Diversification is arguably the oldest and the best way to manage risk. We review the diversification measures appearing in the literature and suggest two new statistics playing natural roles in the Grinold-Kahn Fundamental Law of Active Management framework: the effective number of assets and the effective dimension of the asset space. In general, we find the the markets are much less diversified now than they were in the past. For related papers, use these links: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1607722 http://ssrn.com/abstract=1483412 http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jod.2010.18.1.080 Bios Martin Fridson is “perhaps the most well-known figure in the high yield world,” according to Investment Dealers’ Digest. Over a 25-year span with brokerage firms including Salomon Brothers, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch, he became known for his innovative work in credit analysis and investment strategy. Fridson received his B.A. cum laude in history from Harvard College and his M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. Max Golts PhD is a senior research analyst at Bay Hill Capital Management. Previously, he was a senior research analyst in the Global Fixed Income Group at GMO. Prior to GMO, Max worked on fixed income strategies at State Street Global Markets. Max spent several years as an academic researcher in mathematics, at MIT and elsewhere. He holds a Ph.D. degree in mathematics from Yale University November 16, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA Boston QWAFAFEW Speaker: James Moore, PhD Topic: "Using Factors to Dynamically Manage Pension Fund Risk" Pension Funds are complex systems with many moving parts. A sponsor needs to be concerned about the behavior of the assets, the behavior of the liabilities, and how the two interact. We look at representative Canadian plan and its sensitivities on both the asset and liability side and how they interact and then suggest some asset allocation strategies that can be used to better manage the return dynamics and funding stability of the plan. Venue: 3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street, Boston, MA [call 617-536-4630 for directions]; e-mail Hugh Crowther at [email protected] for more info November 9, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY CHASING BERNIE MADOFF-A Members-Only Event in NYC Tuesday November 9, 2010 A Presentation by Harry Markopolos, CFA, CFE, Whistleblower Specialist Discussants: Frank Casey, Alternative Investment Specialist Michael Ocrant, Institutional Investor Erin Arvedlund, Barrons Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. AGENDA Doors Open for Registration, Networking, and Refreshments: 5:15 PM Chapter Business: 6:00 PM Presentation: 6:10 PM - 7:20 PM Harry Markopolos, co-author of the NY Times Best-seller "No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller" (Wiley 2010) will be presenting on several of the glaring capital markets and accounting red flags that should have been obvious to the numerous MBA's, CFA's, Ph.D.'s and other so-called investment professionals that all was not right with Bernard L. Madoff's hedge fund operation. Mr. Markopolos will take you behind the scenes into his four-man Madoff team's eightand-a-half year investigation across two continents. Break: 7:20 - 7:35 PM Discussants Forum: 7:35 PM - 8:10 PM We are fortunate enough to welcome three discussants who were intimately involved with investigating Madoff. Frank Casey and Michael Ocrant were two members of four members of Markopolos's Madoff investigative team (Neil Chelo was the fourth). Erin Arvedlund, a financial journalist and published author will also be on the panel. They will be on hand to field questions and bring up points from their perspective. Michael Ocrant (MAR/Hedge) and Erin Arvedlund (Barron's) published articles on Madoff indicating that there were reasons to be skeptical of his reported investment returns on May 1st and May 7th, 2001 respectively. However, these warning signs were also ignored by investment professionals, regulators, and investors Open Forum: 8:10 PM - 8:30 PM Bios: Harry Markopolos, Chartered Financial Analyst, Certified Fraud Examiner, and Whistleblower Specialist •6 years as a Full-time fraud investigator (2004 – Present) •4 years as a Part-time fraud investigator (2000-2004) •Former NASDAQ O-T-C Market-Maker & Registered Options Principal) •Former Portfolio manager, then Chief Investment Officer for a $ multibillion equity derivatives asset manager in Boston (1991 – 2004) •Certified Fraud Examiner •Chartered Financial Analyst •Former Steering Committee Member of QWAFAFEW Boston •Profiled on 60 Minutes about Madoff affair and failure of SEC to act upon his submissions •M.S. in Finance; Boston College •B.A. in Business Administration; Loyola College of Maryland •17 Years of Army Reserve Component Service; Infantry, Logistics, Civil Affairs (1978-1995) Erin E. Arvedlund is an author and financial writer specializing in Wall Street, capital markets and investigative reporting. She got her start working for Dow Jones News Wires in 1993, then moved to The Moscow Times in the former Soviet Union in 1996, where she wrote about the emerging markets and oil and gas industries. In 1998 she joined TheStreet.com, one of the first real-time online news blogs covering Wall Street, and then to Barron’s magazine in 2000 where she covered options, mutual and hedge funds and public companies. From 2003 to 2005 she worked again in Moscow, this time for The New York Times as a business correspondent and contract writer out of the Moscow bureau. She also worked on Wall Street from 2006 to 2008 at Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein, before authoring a book on Ponzi-schemer Bernie Madoff (“Too Good to Be True: The Rise and Fall of Bernie Madoff), published by Penguin in 2009. She has graced QWAFAFEW-NYC meetings by her presence on a number of prior occasions. She lives in Philadelphia with her husband, an attorney, and two grey tabby cats, Fenster and McManus. She can be reached at: [email protected]. You can follow her blog on http://erinarvedlund.wordpress.com. Frank Casey is a renowned alternative investments specialist with more than 35-years of experience. He has garnered broad capital and derivative markets knowledge over his long career. Upon leaving the US Army as an Airborne-Ranger Qualified Infantry Captain in 1974, he joined Merrill Lynch to serve corporations as risk-manager specializing in equity, oil and metals derivatives hedging until 1982. He joined Prudential Securities to innovate bank risk management in the nascent mortgage-origination/MBSpipeline arena until 1992. He formed his own investment management firms and served with Smith Barney before joining Rampart Investments, an equity options specialist manager, in early 1998. There he met portfolio managers Harry Markopolos and Neil Chelo. The three formed the core team that began blowing the whistle to the SEC on Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme for 9-y ears starting May 2000 to no avail. He left Rampart late 2001 to help build Benchmark Plus, a hedge fund of funds, growing assets tenfold to over $2-billion through 2007. He joined Fortune Group as President-USA in March 2008 to establish N. American strategic joint ventures offering customized hedge fund portfolio management solutions for private wealth management groups, family offices and institutions. Frank’s 35-years in alternatives investment management help him to differentiate the feasible and probable from the potentially fraudulent investment outcomes when searching for alpha talent. During the past two years, Frank has been interviewed regarding the Madoff scandal by AC360; CNBC’s Scam of The Century, Frontline’s The Madoff Affair, CBS The History Channel, and PBS radio. Michael Ocrant is Director, Alternative Investments for Euromoney Institutional Investor. He is a longtime renowned specialist in Alternative Investments and investigative reporting since starting his Wall Street beat in 1987. As a pre-eminent expert in hedge funds and other alternative investments, Michael has produced many of the industry's best conferences. In May 2001, when he was Managing Editor of MARHedge, Michael was the first reporter to write about Madoff's inexplicable returns in that publication's article, "“Madoff tops charts; skeptics ask how.” At MARHedge, Ocrant also took the lead in compiling what was then regarded by most experts as the only serious hedge-fund database in the industry. His investigative abilities also distinguished his prior expository articles including breaking the story on Hillary Clinton's apparent prowess as a futures trader. Mr. Markopolos has made his redacted submission to the SEC available to those who wish to read it. Click here November 8, 2010 Monday Hartford, CT “Data Preparation, Testing, and Implementation - Doing It Right and Making It Actionable" Speakers: Marcus Bogue, President, Charter Oak Investment Systems Richard Brown, Global Business Manager for Machine Readable News, Thomson Reuters Kevin Means, Managing Partner, Alpha Equity LLC AGENDA 5:10 – 5:40 PM Registration, Refreshments, and Networking 5:40 Chapter Business & Introductions of Speakers – Herbert Blank 5:45 Marcus Bogue, “All About Global Data: Cleaning, Aligning, and Preparing Data for Disparate User Objectives" 6:15 Kevin Means, "It's a Process: Backtesting Market-Neutral Hedge Fund Strategies" 6:45 Richard Brown, "Incorporating News and Sentiment Analysis Into Investing and Trading Strategies" 7:15 Cross-Questioning and Q & A with Audience 7:45 Adjournment Thanks to Thomson Reuters for underwriting a substantial portion of this event. OUR SPEAKERS Marcus C. Bogue III, PhD is President of Charter Oak Investment Systems, Inc., a creator of unique detail-oriented financial databases which are built and delivered through its unequalled analytic proprietary Venues® Data Engine and research-ready Investment Workstation software which he founded in the late 1980’s. He also serves as President and founder of Cook, Croft & Co., Inc. Prior to Charter Oak, Dr. Bogue founded and became President of Marnick Associates, Inc. where he led the team responsible for designing, creating and implementing the Compustat PCPlus product for Standard & Poor's Compustat after having served as President of Braxton Financial Group and an Assistant Professor of Finance at Carnegie-Mellon University. Marcus holds a B.S. from Stanford, a M.S. in Electrical Engineering from M.I.T., and a Ph.D. in Finance from Stanford. He is a frequently published author and soughtafter speaker including prior appearances at QWAFAFEW. Richard Brown is Global Business Manager at Thomson Reuters for the machine readable news program. He is responsible for the product portfolio that includes its archive product, real-time feeds, and news analysis solutions. Prior to his current assignment, Mr. Brown co-founded and was the Chief Operating Officer at Foresight Research Solutions, LLC, a New York-based independent research firm and member of the NASD and SIPC. Prior to Foresight, Mr. Brown was a senior client manager for International Business Machines in New York. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Management and International Business from the Pennsylvania State University and an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business. Kevin Means, CFA is the Founder, Managing Partner, and Chief Investment Officer of Alpha Equity Management. He is the lead portfolio manager in real estate securities, and the developer of a number of the quantitative models and disciplines that guide daily portfolio trading in all asset classes. Mr. Means establishes the strategic investment policies and guidelines and supervises their tactical implementation. Previously, Mr. Means had been Chief Investment Officer – Equities at Aeltus Investment Management (an Aetna subsidiary) in Hartford, where he led that firm’s 55 member equity investment staff. Prior to that, Mr. Means was the Chief Investment Officer at Invesco Management and Research in Boston, where he was responsible for $2 billion of assets under management. From June 1987 until February 1992, he was the Director of Quantitative Research and an Equity Portfolio Manager at Invesco Capital Management, in Atlanta. Mr. Means has a BA in Economics from The College of William and Mary and an MBA from the University of Virginia Business School. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and a member of the Hartford Society of Financial Analysts. October 26, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY QWAFAFEW-NYC Matthew Rothman, Barclays Capital - "Imputed Correlation: Understanding it Sources" Donald Alexander, RSD Solutions & NYU - The Cost of the Perfect Financial Storm and New Regulatory Environment 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:00 Matthew Rothman, "Imputed Correlation: Understanding it Sources" 7:00 – 7:15 Break 7:15 – 8:10 Donald Alexander - The Cost of the Perfect Financial Storm and New Regulatory Environment There is a strong historical link established across countries that experience a severe recession combined with financial crises, and rising sovereign default risk. Private debt often surges before banking crises as government policies often contribute to this borrowing binge. Public debt levels accelerate as governments increase spending to maintain social services, act as lender of last resort and socialize private sector losses. The actual government debt levels may be understated as most advanced countries face an aging population, questionable accounting assumptions and under funded future spending obligations. The surge in public debt levels can have a significant economic and financial impact as investors demand higher interest rates to offset rising sovereign default risk. The higher rates can reduce investment spending and long-term economic growth potential. The combination of fi nancial innovation, increased linkages between financial centers and a smaller number of counterparties leave the financial markets more vulnerable to systemic risk. The severity and duration of any crises can add further costs as countries are more vulnerable to a prolonged period of stagnant growth. 8:10 – 8:30 Q & A and Adjournment About our speakers: Matthew Rothman, Managing Director, Head of Quantitative Equity Strategies Barclays Capital Matthew Rothman, PhD, joined Barclays Capital in September 2008 and is currently a managing director and the global head of the firm's Quantitative Equities Strategies team. In his current capacity, he is responsible for U.S., Europe and Asia stock selection models, as well as sector selection and country selection models. Matthew is also a member of Barclays Capital Investment Policy Committee, which is committed to maintaining the quality and accuracy of the firm's research.Prior to joining Barclays Capital, he was at Lehman Brothers since 2006. Before that, Matthew was the senior quantitative analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein from 2003 to 2006. During that time, the team achieved First Team status in Institutional Investor's "All-America Research Team" poll in 2005 and was ranked No. 1 in the Greenwich Associates poll for 2003 to 2006. In addition, Matthew was a senior research analyst/portfolio manager in the Quantitative Equities group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He earned a Bachelor's degree from Brown University, a MA in Statistics from Columbia University, and a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Economics at Brown University. Don Alexander, RSD Solutions & New York University Don Alexander is a principal at RSD Solutions, an international risk management advisory and training firm with more than 20 years experience in international financial markets. He also is an adjunct professor at NYU, teaching courses in risk management at New York University in their Risk Management Certificate Program. Prior experience at Citigroup includes serving as a member of their investment management committee 1995 to 2007. Don’s specialties there included fixed income, foreign exchange, and model development. He is a prolifically published writer on many subjects from financial markets prospects and foreign exchange forecasting. More recently, his work has focused on the performance of fixed income and other asset models during periods of distressed market conditions, the impact Basle II, and other issues of financial stability. Don has a BS in Accounting is from Findlay College. In addition, he completed two years of additional Ph.D. coursework in International Finance and Economics at Ohio State. October 12, 2010 Tuesday San Francisco, CA San Francisco QWAFAFEW Speaker: Stephen Malinak, PhD, Global Head of Quantitative Research, Thomson Reuters Topic: How smart is it to follow the smart money? Venue: L'Olivier Restaurant, 465 Davis Ct, San Francisco, CA Click SF QWAFAFEW for more info October 6, 2010 Nassau Quantitative Equity Strategies and Signals Wednesday Club, 6 Mercer Street, Princeton, NJ Wednesday October 6, 2010: 5:15 PM – 7:45 PM in Princeton, NJ $20 Members of any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $30 Members of any CFA Society, CQA, SQA, PRMIA, GARP, holders of CAIA, CMT, or CFP Charter, anyone associated with any college including unemployed alumni; $40 all others Hot and cold hors d’oeuvres are FREE; Wine, beer, and soft drinks also FREE until 6:30 PM QWAFAFEW-PRINCETON is now actively looking for Steering Committee Members to help out at registration and drive the future direction of the chapter. Please e-mail [email protected] ASAP to volunteer. AGENDA 5:15 – 5:50 PM Registration, Refreshments, and Networking 5:50 – 6:00 PM Welcome to QWAFAFEW – J. Barringer & H. Blank 6:00 – 6:45 PM "Quant Investment Strategies and the Correlation Conundrum" – Joseph Mezrich What are major categories of quantitative investment strategies? How have such strategies performed lately?Why have quantitative investment managers found themselves increasingly on the defensive? What is meant by “The Correlation Dilemma? ”What has caused it and is there any way out? For the answers to these and other burning questions, please come see what Joe has to say. 6:45 – 7:30 PM “Quantifying Market Sentiment and Making the Data Actionable” - Dave Allen Market Sentiment is defined in different ways by different firms. This presentation delves into the manner in which First Coverage has defined market sentiment and derived its data and its signals based upon its research. Signal effectiveness in disparate contexts is also discussed. This has been a hot topic at many of our regional meetings of late and QWAFAFEW is delighted to have both Dave and Todd here to explore it with us. 7:30 - 7:45 PM - Q & A and Adjournment OUR SPEAKERS Dave Allen is Director of Buy-Side Sales for First Coverage. Joseph Mezrich has been Managing Director, Head of Quantitative Research, at Nomura Securities International since January 2006. September 28, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY QWAFAFEW-NYC Quantitative Risk Management and Modeling Boryana Racheva-Iotova, President FinAnalytica, "Telling Tails – Views from the Left and the Right" Modeling tail events is not just about risk management. Understanding the right side of the distribution can provide guidance in your search for alpha. Adding to that point, the fact is that not all fat-tailed models are created equal. Differentiating between real tail capture and pseudo-capture models, Boryana will demonstrate how accurate measurement of both the left and right tails, not only reduces risk but enhances alpha. Steven Greiner, Research Director, FactSet, "Beta is not Sharpe Enough - a proposed better measure of risk – Tests of the "g-factor" Volatility has been the proxy for risk for many years now. While we’ll accept as fact these days that combining stocks together in a portfolio by minimizing the variance of this measure creates a less risky portfolio, it’s not clear necessarily how to measure across portfolios their relative volatility to a benchmark. In this presentation we will review relative vol measures, tracking error, Beta and introduce a novel and easy to compute measure called the g-Factor which is a “better” measure of volatility, after separating out the volatility from association to a benchmark. Boryana Racheva-Iotova is President of FinAnalytica. She leads FinAnalytica's R&D team. Steven Greiner is a Research Director for FactSet. September 21, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA QWAFAFEW-Boston Stefano Giglio Information Content of Bond and Credit Default Swap Prices Venue: 3rd Floor of the Tennis & Racquet Club, 939 Boylston Street, Boston, MA [call 617-536-4630 for directions]; e-mail Hugh Crowther at [email protected] for more info September 20, 2010 Monday Hartford, CT QWAFAFEW-Hartford "Evaluating ETFs for Investor Suitability and Deployment" Speakers: David Nadig, Director of Research, IndexUniverse.com William Miller, Director iShares Institutional Sales, BlackRock 3rd speaker (asset manager who uses ETFs) to be announced soon Moderator: Herb Blank, SVP, Rapid Ratings International Venue: City Steam Brewey Cafe, 942 Main Street, Hartford, CT Admission (pay at the door please. ONLY cash or check (payable to QWAFAFEW) can be accepted. NO PLASTIC. Paper receipts are available at the registration table ): $20 Members of the Hartford CFA Society or any QWAFAFEW Chapter; $30 for members of the CAIA, CQA, PRMIA, SQA, Students/alumni of any CT University, and those currently between positions; $40 for all others; Hot and cold hors d’oeuvres are complimentary; cash bar To RSVP: Please send an e-mail to [email protected] along with a name, phone number, organization (if any), e-mail, and membership status for each attendee. 12-month chapter Membership: $30. If you decide to join at this meeting, pay $50 and get two receipts, one for $30 membership and the other for the $20 meeting fee. To be added to our mailing list: please visit www.quaffers.org and fill out information in top right-hand section on registering to receive our newsletter. You will receive an e-mail asking you to click on a link to confirm; please do so. Thanks to BlackRock for underwriting a substantial portion of this event September 15, 2010 Wednesday Denver, CO QWAFAFEW-Denver "Following the Smart Money: When Does It Add Value?" Venue: Marco's Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer St., Denver, CO Tim Gaumer, CFA, Thomson Reuters StarMine, "Following the Smart Money: When Does It Add Value?" For more details and information how to attend, please e-mail [email protected] August 24, 2010 New York, Tuesday NY "Actionable Data" Richard Brown, Global Business Manager for Machine Readable News - ThomsonReuters, "Incorporating News and Sentiment Analysis into Trading and Investment Strategies" Robert Gay, Owner and Founder, GEARS (Global Equity Analytic & Research Services), "Evaluating ETFs for Investment Using Quantified Fundamentals“ Time: 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM Venue: Patrick Conway's Pub & Restaurant (downstairs), 40 E 43rd St (between Madison & Vanderbilt), NY, NY – ½-block from Grand Central Station. All are welcome. AGENDA 5:30 - 6:15 Registration, Networking, and Refreshments 6:15 - 6:20 Chapter Business 6:20 – 7:00 Richard Brown, "Incorporating News and Sentiment Analysis Into Investing and Trading Strategies" News is and always has been a major force in driving financial markets. Moreover, its impact is growing more immediate. It now is possible to work with breaking news using sentiment and other news analytics which make it possible to better exploit market inefficiencies and more effectively manage event risk.Machine readable news and sentiment analysis has often been categorized by use only by those most sophisticated firms operating secretive high frequency black box trading strategies. In this session, we will explore some practical uses applicable across all trading frequencies and short to mid-term investment horizons. 7:00 – 7:15 Break 7:15 – 8:10 Robert Gay, "Evaluating ETFs for Investment Using Quantified Fundamentals “ 8:10 – 8:30 Q & A and Adjournment Presentations - 2010-08-24-ny-Gay.pdf. For Richard Brown's, presentation, please click here About our speakers: Richard Brown is is the global business manager for the machine readable news program at Thomson Reuters, responsible for the product portfolio that includes its archive product, real-time feeds, and news analysis solutions. Prior to his current assignment, Mr. Brown co-founded and was the Chief Operating Officer at Foresight Research Solutions, LLC, a New York-based independent research firm and member of the NASD and SIPC. Prior to Foresight, Mr. Brown was a senior client manager for International Business Machines in New York. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Management and International Business from the Pennsylvania State University and an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business. Robert Gay is the Owner and Founder of GEARS, Global Equity Analytic and Research Services (www.thegears.com) since 1997. GEARS incorporates the latest technology using pattern recognition, high speed computing and internet resources to develop, then deliver targeted investment decisions. Prior to becoming an entrepreneur, he worked as a quantitative analyst with Loewen Ondaatje McCutcheon for almost four years after having completed eight years as a quantitative analyst with Donaldson Lefkin Jenrette. At DLJ, Robert served on the Stock Selection Committee. He holds an MA in Economics from the University of Western Ontario. August 17, 2010 Boston, Tuesday MA David Kane, Kane Capital Management, "Matching Portfolios" - an alternative approach to benchmarking. Inspired by the Rubin Causal Model, we propose a portfolio performance measure which compares the return of a target portfolio against the return of a matching portfolio sharing the same exposures but holding different stocks. Treated as a benchmark, a matched portfolio provides a more precise estimate of alpha, or stock-picking ability, because it shares the same characteristics as the target portfolio, but with no overlap in stocks. It is also more flexible than other benchmarks (i.e., Daniel et al. (1997)) because it can be matched on any number of characteristics and can mimic the weighting structure (e.g., long-short, 130/30) of the target portfolio. Compared to existing benchmarks, our matching portfolios have over 20% less bias, defined as the total absolute difference between the benchmark and target portfolios. Boston Tennis & Racket at 919 Boylston commencing at 6:15 Sharpe - RSVP to [email protected] July 22, 2010 Thursday Chicago, IL PRMIA-Chicago, in cooperation with Chicago QWAFAFEW New Financial Regulations and Their Impact Speakers: Till, Salzman, Western and Chookaszi July 20, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY "Leadership Trends and ETP Suitability for Clients" Mary Ann Bartels, MD-U.S. Technical and Market Analysis, B of A Merrill Lynch Global Research, “Leadership Trends: Where Do We Go From Here?” Mike Carty, Principal and Founder, New Millennium Advisors, “Suitability of ETPs for Deployment in Taxable Client Accounts” Presentations - 2010-07-20-ny-Bartels.pdf, also 2010-07-20-ny-Carty.ppt July 20, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA Carol Osler, PhD, Brandeis International Business School "What Triggers Market Crashes?" Boston Tennis & Racket at 919 Boylston commencing at 6:15 Sharpe - RSVP to [email protected] June 29, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY "ETF Strategies" Joanne M. Hill, PhD, Head of Investment Strategy, ProShares and ProFund Advisors, “Leveraged and Inverse ETFs: Trends, Strategies, and Return Dynamics” Marvin Appel, PhD, President, Appel Asset Management, “Active Asset Allocation Strategies for ETFs” William M. Funk, Esq., Law Office of William M. Funk, “What Taxable Investors Should Know About ETFs – A Brief Overview” Presentations - 2010-06-29-qw-ny-Hill.pdf, also 2010-06-29-qw-nyAppel.ppt June 21, 2010 Monday Hartford, CT "The Growing Crisis in Funding Pension Liabilities - Two Proposed Remedies". John Minahan, New England Pension Consultants, Ron Ryan, Ryan Asset Liability Management, Moderator: Jay DiNunzio, Prudential. Location: City Steam Brewery Cafe╘, 942 Main St., Hartford More info - www.qwafafew-hartford.com, also 2010-06-21-ct.doc.doc Thanks to Northfield Information Systems for underwriting a portion of this event June 16, 2010 Wednesday New York, NY "Data Cleanliness, Test Design, and Applied Data Analysis" Panelists: Marcus Bogue, Charter Oak Systems; Ed Matluck, HedgeMetrics; Dirk Renick, ThomsonReuters Starmine Moderator: Bill Rafter, MathInvest Presentations - 2010-06-16-ny-Bartels.ppt, also 2010-06-16-ny-Renick.ppt Thanks to Thomson Reuters for underwriting a portion of this event June 15, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA Topic: "Equity Risk, Credit Risk, Default Correlation and Corporate Sustainability" with Dan DiBartolomeo, Northfield Info Systems at Boston Tennis & Racket at 919 Boylston commencing at 6:15 Sharpe - RSVP to [email protected] May 25, 2010 Tuesday San Francisco, CA QWAFAFEW-SF Meeting ( 2010-05-25-sf.doc ) Topic: Incorporation of Quantified News into Portfolio Risk Assessments Speaker: Mr. diBartolomeo, President and founder of Northfield Information Services, Inc. When: 5.30 pm Venue: L'Olivier French Restaurant, 465 Davis Ct, San Francisco, CA 94111 (415) 981-7824 May 25, 2010 Tuesday New York, NY QWAFAFEW NYC - 2010-05-25-nyc.doc Focus on Analysts’ Estimates Joseph Mezrich, Nomura Securities Carson Boneck, SystematIQ - Click for Presentation May 20, 2010 Thursday Denver, CO QWAFAFEW Denver ( 2010-05-20-denver.doc ) Presentation: Alpha Signals From Fundamental and Statistical Risk Speaker: Anthony Renshaw, PhD When: at 5:30PM. Networking, hors d’oeuvres (including vegetarian options), and complimentary wine; 6:15 PM: Presentation Venue: Marco’s Coal Fired Pizza, 2129 Larimer St., Denver Admission: $10 Members; $35 Guests RSVP: Secure your seat by emailing your registration and sending your check to the following address prior to the event. Please make checks payable to QWAFAFEW Denver. Address: Secretarial Solutions, 6057 S. Lakeview St., Littleton CO 80120 Questions: Email [email protected] May 19, 2010 Wednesday Chicago Joint Chicago QWAFAFEW and Chicago PRMIA Meeting: “Innovations in the Commodity Arena” Where: Morningstar, 22 W. Washington Street, 7th Floor, Chicago, IL When: 5:00 – 7:00 p.m. Presentation 1: Scott Burns, head of ETF Research at Morningstar “Exchange-listed Commodity Product -- Different Structures and Their Pros and Cons” Presentation 2: Ryan Abrams, AlphaMetrix - “Innovations in Commodity Investing: Alpha and Beta in Institutional Portfolios” Presentation 3: Keith Black, Ennis Knupp & Associates - “Multiple Methodologies for Earning Alpha in the Commodity Markets” Moderator: Paul Kaplan, Ph.D., CFA, Quantitative Research Director, Morningstar Europe; and contributor to Intelligent Commodity Investing Please RSVP via Acteva: http://www.acteva.com/go/ChicagoQWAFAFEW by May 14. May 18, 2010 Tuesday Boston, MA speaker and topic to be announced May 12, 2010 Wednesday Princeton, NJ QWAFAFEW Princeton, NJ - click here for full details: 2010-05-12-nj.doc Topic: Data Mining: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Panelists: Kushal Kshirsagar, Ph.D., Markov Proc. William Rafter, Mathematical investment Decisions Richard Suttmeier, ValuEngine Moderator: Herbert Blank, Rapid Ratings International 5:15 PM – 7:45 PM at Nassau Club, 6 Mercer Street, Princeton, NJ Thanks to ValuEngine for underwriting a portion of this event April 29, 2010 New York 6th Annual ETF Global Awards Dinner and half day conference - Grand Hyatt NY.Topics include: ETP product developments, trading strategies, regulatory issues affecting these products in the international marketplace, the continued growth of the Emerging Markets, and commodities, among others. A certain amount of complimentary passes are available for Financial Advisors. For further information and sponsorship opportunities, contact: [email protected] Wed April 28 2010 New York 9th Annual Capital Link NY Forum for Global ETFs & Closed-End Funds http://www.capitallinkforum.com/cef/2010/signup.html Metropolitan Club of New York City - One E. 60th Street 2010-04-27nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – Matt Moran, VP, Chicago Board Options Exchange "Diversification And Risk Management Strategies In Times When Volatility And Correlations Hit Record Highs" Presentation 2 - David Abner, VP-Institutional Sales, Wisdom Tree “ETF & ETP Trading Strategies” 2010-04-26ct.doc Hartford, CT Sustainable Investing - A Quantitative Perspective - Dan diBartolomeo, President and Founder, Northfield Information Systems - Cary Krosinsky, Vice President, TruCost - Jon Quigley, Managing Director, Advanced Investment Partners Moderator: Krista Kennedy Location: City Steam Brewery Café, 942 Main St., Hartford, CT 06103. Please RSVP to: [email protected] 2010-04-22chicagoprmia.doc Chicago Topic - Trading, Liquidity, and ETFs. - Paul Daley, Fox River Execution - ETF Liquidity - Doug Yones, Vanguard - ETF Trends and Trading - 3rd speaker from Quantitative Services Group, LLC - Moderator - Patrick Daugherty, Foley & Lardner, LLP - email [email protected] for more info 2010-04-21denver.doc Denver Topic - Impatient Trading, Liquidity Provision, and Stock Selection by Mutual Funds Speaker - Ravi Jagannathan, Chicago Mercantile Exchange/John F. Sandner Professor of Finance and a Co-Director of the Financial Institutions and Markets Research Center, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University. 2010-04-20 Boston BOSTON QWAFAFEW – Tuesday April 20 @ 6:15 PM Mark Kritzman - Principal Components as a Measure of Systemic Risk. Full details - 2010-04-20-boston.doc RSVP via email to: [email protected] 2010-04-20 Chicago Chicago QWAFAFEW Partner Event - Distinguished Speaker Series from CFA Society of Chicago Tuesday April 20 2010, Noon – 1:00 PM VENUE: The Mid-America Club, 200 E. Randolph Street, 80th Floor, Chicago, IL Harry Markopolos, CFA - Independent Certified Fraud Examiner and a former board member of the Boston chapter of QWAFAFEW Reflecting on Chasing Madoff and his $65 Billion Ponzi Scheme Signed copies of his newly released book, No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller will be available for sale at the event. 2010-04-13sf.doc San Francisco Sanjiv Das - "Optimal Modification of Home Loans" The talk is based on the speaker's research paper available at: http://algo.scu.edu/~sanjivdas/loanmod.pdf Learn more about SF QWAFAFEW at http://sites.google.com/site/sfqwafafew/Home 2010-04-13 New York Forum on High Frequency Trading Across Multiple Asset Classes - Ultra Low Latency, High Frequency Strategies and Multi Asset Trading: What Does the Trader Need to Know? - Moving Beyond Equities: Successful Tools to Obtain Liquidity Across Asset Classes Information: [email protected] 2010-03-25denver.doc Denver Dan DiBartolomeo, Northfield Information Systems - "Incorporation of Quantified News into Portfolio Risk Assessments". [email protected] 2010-03-23-nyc- New York prmia.doc Joint Meeting with PRMIA. Presentation 1 - Bill Margrabe, President, William Margrabe Group -"He Fell Hard for a Beautiful Model, but Ended Up Jobless, Broke, Hurt, and Confused" - Failures and successes of financial risk models and those who use them, with applications to financial disasters of the last two decades. Presentation 2 - Jennifer Bender – Vice President of Applied Research, MSCI BARRA -"Optimization Analytics". 2010-03-16boston.doc Boston Randolph B. Cohen, Ph. D., Visiting Associate Professor of Finance at MIT Sloan School of Management, Co-founder of Vision Capital Advisors. Title: Identifying Investment Managers Who Will Outperform in Difficult Times 2010-03-16-sf San Francisco Dr. Max Golts, “A Sharper Angle on Optimization” 2010-02-25denver.doc Denver Speaker: Jeremy Siegel, WisdomTree’s Senior Investment Strategy Advisor 2010-02-24nj.doc Princeton, NJ Topic - "ETF Research Challenges and Trading Strategies" - Intro to the ETF Marketplace and Introductions – J. Prestbo - “ETF Research Challenges” - D. McDonald - “Behind ETF Fixed Income Indexes” – N. Wardley - “ETF Trading Strategies” – D. Abner Venue: Nassau Club, 6 Mercer Street Thanks to ValuEngine for underwriting a portion of this event 2010-02-23nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – James P. O'Shaughnessy, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management - "The Same Old Bear" - about recent bear market. Presentation 2 – Raphael Douady - Riskdata - "The StressVaR: a New Risk Concept for Superior Fund Allocation". 2010-02-03vancouver.doc Vancouver Speaker: George Platt, Head of Global Quantitative Research Topic: ”Global Factor Timing Using Macroeconomic Inputs” 2010-01-27sf.doc San Francisco Speaker: Sébastien Page, Senior Managing Director, State Street Associates Topic: The Myth of Diversification 2010-01-26nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – Ron Ryan, Ryan ALM “What Happened in 2009 – What’s In Store for 2010?” How did pension assets and liabilities perform? How realistic are plan actuarial assumptions now? A deeper dive into decision-making processes. Process improvements that can help fiduciaries achieve their goals Presentation 2 – Mark Sladkus, Red Light House Investment Management, “The Importance of Asset Allocation in Achieving Investment Goals” 2010-01-25ct.doc Hartford, CT Presentation I – Leadership Trends: Where Do We Go From Here? Bartels Presentation II – Is That Light at the End of the Tunnel Actually an Onrushing Train? - White Presentation III – Adverse Selection and Implementation Shortfall - Mittal Thanks to ITG Inc. for underwriting a portion of this event 2010-01-21vancouver.doc Vancouver Speaker: Kelly Chang, Vice President in MSCI Barra Applied Research group - ”The Future of Market Risk Management”. 2010-01-20denver.doc Denver Matt Moran, CBOE - "Diversification and Risk Management Strategies in Times When Volatility and Correlations Hit" 2009-12-16denver.doc Denver Jack Zwingli, CEO – Audit Integrity - "Audit Integrity" - Integrity as measured by accounting & governance risk metrics;Integrity metrics that best measure fraud risk: methodology and validation;Building a taxonomy to predict fraudulent behavior; The link between fraud risk and equity returns 2009-12-09nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Diane Garnick, Invesco - "Board Room Careers Begin with a Board of Mentors". The monogamous mentorship era is over. Using company assigned mentors is akin to an arranged marriage. What responsibilites do you have to your own Board of Mentors? Presentation 2 - Herb Blank, Rapid Ratings - "Were There Any Financial Risk Models That Held Up During the Meltdown?". The Altman z-score. The Rapid Ratings FHR. Implications for Quants. 2009-12-03chicago.doc Chicago - Dennis Chookaszian, Former CEO of CNA Insurance - "Future of the Financial Industry, including mergers & acquisitions, the insurance industry, and financial jobs in Chicago". - Mr. Michael Herbst, Associate Director of Fund Analysis, Morningstar, Inc. - "Asset Management Industry" - Ms. Hilary Till, Principal, Premia Capital Management, LLC, and Research Associate, EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre - "Commodities". - Mr. Keith Black, Associate, Ennis Knupp + Associates - "Green Investing". - Ms. Susan Barreto, Deputy Editor, InvestHedge - "Current and Future Issues for Global Hedge Fund Investors". 2009-11-17nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Matthew Rothman, Head-Quantitative Strategies, Barclays Capital - "The State of Quantitative Asset Management: What Have We Learned from the Financial Crisis?". Presentation 2 - Don Alexander, RSD Solutions & NYU - " The Perfect Financial Storm: A Post Mortem". 2009-11-10sf.doc San Francisco Leigh Sneddon, Director of Proprietary Analytics, BGI - "The Dynamics of Active Portfolios". 2009-10-27nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – Dan diBartolomeo and Christopher Kantos, Northfield Information Systems - "Direct Incorporation of Liquidity Risks Arising from Expected Trading Costs into Equity Factor Risk Models". Presentation 2 – Jason MacQueen, R-Squared Risk Management Ltd. - "Versatile Applications of Multifactor Equity Risk Models". 2009-10-21denver.doc Denver Michael Stutzer, Professor, Burridge Center for Securities Analysis and Valuation, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado - "How Delegated Fund Management Creates Co-movements and Priced Factor". 2009-10-20nj.doc Princeton, NJ "Algorithmic Trading: New Directions and Measuring Efficacy" Moderator: Brooke Allen, Head of Quantitative Trading Group, Maple Securities USA. Panelists: - William Adiletta, President, TekFinancial Solutions - Robert Golan, Information Rules Architect, DB Mind Technologies - James Wong, Manager- Algorithmic Analytics, ITG Venue: Nassau Club, 6 Mercer Street Thanks to TekFinancial Solutions for underwriting a portion of this event 2009-10-13sf.doc San Francisco Lisa Borland, Director of Derivatives Strategies, Evnine and Associates "Capturing the Smile and the Skew: A theory of non-Gaussian options pricing". 2009-09-22nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Ian Domowitz, ITG - Transaction Costs and Equity Portfolio Capacity Analysis Presentation 2 - Jennifer Bender, MSCI Barra - Best Practices for Investment Risk Management 2009-09-21ct.doc Hartford, CT "Retirement Investing in Tough Economic Times: A Panel Discussion". Panelists/speakers: - Cynthia Steer, Head of Beta Research at Rogerscasey (Moderator) - Roger Ibbotson, CEO of Zebra Capital (Professor Emeritus, Yale University) - Andrew Rudd, CEO of Advisor Software (former CEO of BARRA). - Charles Van Vleet, Director-Pension Investments at UTC Host: Dan diBartolomeo, President, Northfield Information Services, Inc. (NIS) 2009-09-15sf.doc San Francisco David Leinweber, Author of "Nerds on Wall Street", Haas Fellow in Finance, UC Berkeley - "Technology and the Great Mess of '08.". 2009-08-19nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - David Merrill, CEO, FinAnalytica and Joel Nadelman, Manager of Client Solutions, FinAnalytica - "Fat-Tails for Dummies (by Dummies)" - an overview of the fat-tailed risk management paradigm that we should all be operating within while facing current challenges; time varying volatility, fat-tails, skewness, kurtosis and asymmetric tail dependence. Presentation 2 - Dr. Liuren Wu, Professor Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College - "From Variance Risk Premia to Stock Returns". 2009-08-18boston.doc Boston Paul Bolster, Northeastern University - "Cramer portfolio analysis." 2009-07-21nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – Mary Bartels, Lynch US Equity Strategist- "The equity markets: past, present and future. A technical/structural review and explanation of what happened to the equity markets in 2008". What will be the role of Hedge Funds; How will they impact the equity market - if at all?; Will quant models regain their appeal? ; What hedge funds own versus what they don't Outlook for the equity, bond and commodity markets for 2009 and beyond. Presentation 2 – C. Michael Carty, New Millennium Advisors - "Taking Out the Trash - Which ETFs Don’t Work and Why?". 2009-07-21boston.doc Boston Mark Kritzman, Windham Capital - "Investing During Times of Turbulence.". 2009-06-23nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 – Dr. Seddik Meziani, Montclair State University "A CoreSatellite Strategy with Micro-Cap Holdings" Presentation 2 - Ms, Ronit Walny, Kellogg Specialist - " Qualities of an Effective Market Place" 2009-06-16boston.doc Boston Evan Schulman - " Sales Certificates: Approaching the Moment of Truth." 2009-05-26nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Joseph Mezrich, Nomura Securities - "How macro is priced in equity factors; A brief tour of the crisis and its aftermath" Presentation 2 – Sriketan Mahanti, Orissa Group, Inc - "Liquidity Risk: Estimation and Applications" 2009-05-19boston.doc Boston Jarrod W. Wilcox, Wilcox Investment - "Discretionary Wealth Meets Bayesian Logic." 2009-05-18washington.doc Washington "The Challenges of Retirement Investing" - Hosted by NASDAQ OMX. DC Speaker: John W. O'Brien, Faculty Director, Master of Financial Engineering Program, University of California, Berkeley. Discussion Leader: Joanne Hill, Head of Investment Strategy, ProShares ETFs & ProFunds. 2009-05-07ct.doc Hartford, CT "Rapidly Incorporating New Information into Quantitative Models" Speakers: Dan diBartolomeo, President, Northfield Information Systems & Michael Wilcox, President, Alford Associates. Host: William Adiletta, President, Tek Financial Solutions. 2009-04-28nyc.doc New York Presentations by Brooke Allen, Maple Securities USA – Head, Quantitative Strategies Presentation I - The Economics of Hard Times Presentation II – Finding Work, Jobs, and Opportunity in Hard Times. 2009-04-21boston.doc Boston Dan diBartolomeo, Northfield Information Services, Inc. - "Incorporating New and Investor Sentiment into Portfolio Risk Estimation". 2009-03-24sf.doc San Francisco LaVaughn Henry, Director of U.S. Economic Analysis, PMI Group "House Price Appreciation: Forecasts and Probabilities". 2009-03-24nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Laurence B. Siegel, Director of research in the investment division of The Ford Foundation and research director of the Research Foundation of CFA Institute - "The Lost Decade". Presentation 2 - Todd Petzel, Investment Officer, Offit Capital Advisors "Modeling Liquidity and Income in the Modern Endowment". 2009-03-17boston.doc Boston The state of Our Industry amidst the World Financial Crisis (discussion). 2009-02-25chicagoprmia.doc Chicago "Diversification, Portfolio Management and Use of New Volatility-based Index Products" Panelists: - Srikant Dash, Global Head of Research and Design at Standard & Poor's Index Services in New York. S&P recently launched indexes based on VIX futures prices to provide benchmarks for volatility trading strategies. - Mark Krommenhoek, Principal at Barclays Global Investors in San Francisco. Barclays recently launched trading in two new iPath Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) that are designed to provide access to equity market volatility through VIX futures. - Mr. Keith H. Black, CFA at Ennis Knupp + Associates, a consulting firm based in Chicago. Keith is the primary author of a new paper on "Evaluating the Performance Characteristics of the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index." - Jamie Tyrell of Group One Trading in Chicago, a firm that serves as designated primary marketmaker (DPM) for options on volatility indexes. - Mr. Brett Estell, Director at Chicago Trading Company (CTC), a trading firm that serves as the designated primary marketmaker (DPM) for various products, including futures contracts based on variance and volatility indexes. 2009-02-24nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Jim O'Shaughnessy, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management "Opportunity Knocks" (opportunities in Equities and recessions). Presentation 2 - Savita Subramanian, Merrill Lynch Quantitative Strategies - "A Review of Quantitative Strategies" 2009-02-17boston.doc Boston Sriketan Mahanti - "Trading Agents and Liquidity Risk". 2009-02-04nyc.doc New York John W. O’Brien, Faculty Director, Master of Financial Engineering Program, University of California, Berkeley - "The Retirement Investing Challenge". 2009-01-27nyc.doc New York Presentation 1 - Ron Ryan, Ryan ALM - "What happened in 2008 and What Lies Ahead for Pension Liabilities?". Presentation 2 - Michael Wilcox, Alford Associates - "What happened in 2008 and What Lies Ahead for Global Economies and Currencies?". 2009-01-12- San Jason Morton, Stanford University - "Tools for higher-order portfolio sf.doc Francisco optimization". 2008-12-01sf.doc San Francisco John O’Brien, Faculty Director, Master of Financial Engineering Program, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley - "The Retirement Investing Challenge". 2008-01-21vancouver.doc Vancouver Kelly Chang, Vice President in MSCI Barra - "The Future of Market Risk Management". . Other Past Meetings: May 21, 2010 Friday New York Society of Quantitative Analysts (www.sqa-us.org) Fuzzy Day 2010: Institutional Decision Making & Group Behavior. 8:15am - 6pm - at Goldman Sachs Conference Center, 200 West Street (near Battery Park), NYC Cost: $350 SQA Member; $550 Non member (includes one year free membership); $475 PRMIA Sustaining Member Registration Deadline: Friday, May 14th (go to www.sqa-us.org today!) More details: http://www.sqa-us.org/cde.cfm?event=303891 May 21, 2010 Friday Boston, MA PRIMIA Event: Risk Education: What You Need & How to Get It. Presenters: - Daniel Tu, Advisory Manager, CFA, FRM, PRM, PricewaterhouseCoopers - Jim Haught, SVP Director ICAAP/Global Treasury Mgmt, CFA, FRM, PRM, State Street Corporation - Edward Dumas, Regional Director PRMIA Boston Chapter & Head of Risk Solutions North America, DST Global Solutions 11:00 AM - SunGard, 3 Post Office Square, 11th Floor, Boston, MA. (Note: Entrance is between CVS and Dunkin Donuts) For a full description and registration information, please click here or visit http://www.prmia.org/events/view_events.php?eventID=4037 May 24, 2010 Monday Washington, PRIMIA Event: Revitalizing the U.S. Mortgage Market: GSE D.C. Reform. Presenters: - Mark Zandi, PhD, Chief Economist, Moody's - G. "Anand" Anandalingam, Dean, Robert H. Smith School of Business - John Dalton, President, Housing Policy Council for Financial Services Roundtable - Greg Hawkins, Managing Director, Product Chief Risk Officer, Global Real Estate and Mortgages, Citigroup - William Longbrake, Executive-in-Residence, Center for Financial Policy; Chairman Emeritus, Financial Services RoundtableБ─≥s Housing Policy Council - Clifford Rossi, Tyser Teaching Fellow and Managing Director, Center For Financial Policy; Former Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer, Citigroup Consumer Lending Group - Lemma Senbet, The William E. Mayer Chair Professor of Finance and Director, Center for Financial Poli! cy - Haluk Unal, Professor of Finance and Financial Institutions and Consumer Finance Academic Track Leader, Center for Financial Policy - Robert Van Order, Professor of Finance and Oliver T. Carr Professor of Real Estate, George Washington University - Peter Wallison, Arthur F. Burns Fellow in Financial Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research 8:30 AM - at Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. More info and registration http://www.prmia.org/events/view_events.php?eventID=4002 Tuesday, May 25, 2010 New York Exploiting The Latest Opportunities In High Frequency Trading: Equities, Fx, Fixed Income, Futures And Options TIME: 5:00pm – 8:00pm (including a cocktail reception) VENUE: Thomson Reuters Building - 3 Times Square, 7th Avenue between 42nd & 43rd Street, New York, NY 10036 Topics: HFT: Past, present and future | Opportunities in multimarket cross-asset trading | Understanding and managing transaction costs | Insourcing vs. outsourcing: How best to spend your time and money | Regulatory changes and their impact on HFT strategies | PANELISTS: Rich Brown, Global Business Manager, Machine Readable News, Thomson Reuters (Moderator) Juny Sridhara, President, Archimedes Finance Alex Dziejma, Principal; Chief Architect, Dymaxion Capital Management Dariush Nazem, Vice President, Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P. Matt Cushman, Managing Director, Head of Quantitative Strategies, Knight Equity Markets Erik Lehtis, Head of FX Trading, Wolverine Trading LLC Registration http://online.thomsonreuters.com/forms/2010qedforumnewyork/ May 26, 2010 Wednesday Topic: De-cloaking Fat-tailed Approaches: Why all risk models are not created equal Time: 8:00AM New York, 1:00PM London, 2:00PM Central Europe Duration: 60 Minutes To register, visit http://www.finanalytica.com/en/page/83/newsid/51/wid/256/from/83 Accepting the reality that asset returns are fat-tailed, the race is on for risk managers, quantitative analysts and software vendors to adopt new methods that satisfy investor demands for greater risk transparency. It can be very hard, if not totally confusing, to evaluate and compare how these various approaches will work in practice. The fact is that not all fat-tailed models are created equal. This webinar will help to demystify what it takes to build a real world fattailed model. The world's leading authorities on modeling extreme market events, FinAnalytica’s President, Boryana Racheva-Iotova, and Chief Scientist, Svetlozar (Zari) Rachev, will cover: - What penalty or elevated view of risk might be associated with using a particular fat-tailed approach - Why skew is only part of the challenge - What differentiates “predictive” models from "stressed" and “you’re in it now” models - How the more widely discussed approaches perform in different market conditions - Who should attend? The webinar is geared towards risk managers, quantitative analysts and portfolio managers. QUANT QUIZ 2011 Send an e-mail to [email protected] with your responses. The first to get all 10 correct may attend the January 25 2011 meeting free of charge 1. The first ETF to trade in North America in 1991 was known by the acronym (not the ticker symbol): a) SPDR b) SPX c) SUPR d) TIPS (Toronto Index Participation Shares) e) None of the preceding 2. Jack and Bill return from fishing to their campsite to find Muriel there lost in the woods with her cellphone battery dead. They call Muriel's friend with coordinates to retrieve her but she won't be able to get there for 3 hours. They ask Muriel if she'd like to join them for dinner as they have more fish and bread than they can eat and she thanks them and agrees. Jack caught 5 fish and has 5 loaves of bread. Bill caught 3 fish and has 3 loaves of bread. They all share equally and eat equal amounts of fish and bread. Nothing is left. Muriel thanks them for their generosity but says she wouldn't feel right if she didn't give them something for their kindness. She takes 16 half dollars out of her purse. If she were to be quantitatively fair to both Jack and Bill, how many half dollars should she give Jack? a) 8 b) 10 c) 11 d) 12 e) none of the preceding (14) 3. Siblings Andrea and Mike leave their mother's house in Great Falls at 11:00 AM with Mike traveling at 80 miles per hour due south and Andrea traveling 60 miles per hour due east. 90 minutes later while stopping for gas Mike discovers to his horror that he doesn't have his briefcase and computer and realizes that he left it in Andrea's car. He calls her cell phone. She pulls over and using an App discovers that the main entrance of Mesa Monte Ranch is the precise halfway point between where both of them are now so they agree to meet there. They start heading out at the same speeds and Mike continues to average 80 miles per hour but an accident stops traffic dead for way too long for Andrea and she winds up averaging 30 miles per hour. Approximately what time do Andrea and Mike meet at Mesa Monte Ranch? a) 1:45 PM b) 2:00 PM c) 2:20 PM d) 3:00 PM e) none of the preceding 4. Which man who became a US President also authored a published mathematical proof of the Pythagorian Theorem? a) John Quincy Adams b) James Abram Garfield c) Herbert Clark Hoover d) Thomas Woodrow Wilson e) none of the preceding 5. Calculus is the Latin word for: a) digit b) idea c) pebble d) scheme e) none of the preceding 6. If quantquiz became such a part of the English language that it was added to the Scrabbleapproved US English Dictionary as a legitimate single word, the following situation could occur using the current accepted general rules of Scrabble. Player one on the pink starred letter puts in the word "ant" doubled for six points. Using the letters in his hand, Player two puts two letters in front of "ant" and continues on the same row after the "t" as he is allowed to do and goes all the way down putting a "Z" on the triple word score square to complete the word "quantquiz." On the Scrabble board the square immediatele after the "t" which is three more squares left of the Triple Word Score is a double letter score square. Given that none of the other squares on which quantquiz appears have any special bonus designations, that the pink double-word score that the "a" in ant appears on no longer applies to this turn, that vowels are worth one point, that the one Q and the one Z in the game are worth 10 points apiece and that either of the two blanks can be used for any letter but are worth zero points, and that a player who uses up all 7 of his tiles on one turn gets a 50-point bonus, what is the maximum numbers of points that Player 2 can score on this turn? a) 86 b) 108 c) 138 d) 188 e) none of the preceeding 7. Who was a principal player in these two major financial markets innovations: a) management of the first-ever index fund and b) commercializing Estimated Default Frequencies based upon a variation of the Merton Structural Model? a) Fischer Black b) William Fouse c) Steven Kealhofer d) John McQuown e) John O'Brien 8. Which of the following measures is not important in calculating the target price in a Dividend Discount Model? a) Book Value Per Share b) Decay Rate c) Dividends Per Share d) Earnings Growth Rate e) All for of the preceding are important 9. What is the next year of significance in this sequence: 1764, 1849, 1936, ... a) 1963 b) 1968 c) 2001 d) 2025 (perfect squares) e) 2525 10. The first QWAFAFEW-NYC event of 1997 to take place in a bar and/or restaurant was held at: a) Annie Moore's b) Costello's c) Houlihan's d) Maggie's Place e) None of the preceding (John Barleycorn's) Remember, you must send your 10 responses by e-mail to [email protected] with your responses. The first e-mailer to get all 10 correct may attend the January 25 2011 meeting free of charge. If no one gets all 10 correct, the first e-mail received from a chapter member with the highest number of correct responses gets a 50% discount to the January 25th meeting. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All.
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